zions bank economic overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Zions Bank Economic Overview · l-12 v-12 r-13 l-13 v-13 r-14 l-14 v-14 r-15 l-15 v-15 r-16 l-16 v-16 r-17 l-17 v-17 r-18 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 128.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022052022/6036b228f9e1f70cc456674a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ZionsBankEconomicOverview
UtahLeagueofCitiesandTowns
• June18,2018
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UtahEconomic Conditions
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PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%
Loss
0.2%to0.6%
1.5%+
0.0%to0.1%
NM0.1%
UT1.9%
AZ1.6%
CA0.6%
NV2.0%
OR1.4%
TX1.4%
OK0.2%
CO1.4%
WA1.7%
ID2.2%
MT1.1%
WY-1.0%
ND0.0%
SD0.9%
MN0.9%
NE0.7%
KS0.3%
IA0.5%
MO0.4%
AR0.5%
LA0.0%
WI0.4%
IL-0.3%
IN0.5%
OH0.3%
FL1.6%
TN1.0%
KY0.4%
MS0.0%
AL0.3%
GA1.1%
SC1.3%
NC1.1%
VA0.7%
WV-0.7%
PA0.1%
NY0.1%
ME0.4%
AK-0.2%
HI-0.1%
MA0.5%
VT0.0%
NH0.6%
RI0.2%
CT0.0%
NJ0.4%
DE1.0%
MD0.5%
MI0.3%
DC1.4%
KS0.2%
UtahPopulation3rd Fastest GrowinginU.S.
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0.7%to1.4%
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PercentChange:2016to2017U.S.Rate=0.7%
Loss
0.2%to0.6%
1.5%+
0.0%to0.1%
UtahCounties’GrowthOutpacingNation
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
0.7%to1.4%
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-20,000-10,000010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
0300,000600,000900,000
1,200,0001,500,0001,800,0002,100,0002,400,0002,700,0003,000,0003,300,0003,600,000
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
NetMigration NaturalIncrease TotalPopulation
34,886
3,101,833
22,587
2017
Sources:U.S.CensusBureau
TotalPop
ulation
ComponentsofPopulationChange
e=estimate,f=forecast
UtahPopulationandComponentsofChange
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UtahPopulationGrowthRatesByCounty
2016to2017StateAverage=1.9%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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GreaterWasatchPopulation
GrowthRatesByCity
2015to2016StateAverage=1.8%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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SaltLakeCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates
2010to2017
StateAverage=1.7%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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UtahCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates
2010to2017
StateAverage=1.7%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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DavisCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates
2010to2017
StateAverage=1.7%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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WeberCountyPopulationAverageGrowthRates
2010to2017
StateAverage=1.7%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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WashingtonCountyAverageGrowthRates
2010to2017
StateAverage=1.7%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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CacheCountyAverageGrowthRates
2010to2017
StateAverage=1.7%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau
1.0%to1.7%
0.0%to0.9%
1.8%to2.9%
Loss
3.0%+
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PercentChangeinEmploymentforStates:May2017toMay2018U.S.Rate=1.7%UTRate=3.4%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
1.0%to1.5%
0.0%to0.9%
Loss
1.6%to1.9%
2.0%+
UtahhastheFastestEmploymentGrowth
MA1.6%
NH1.9%
HI1.7%
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800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,6001996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Thou
sand
sofEmployees
TotalNonfarmEmploymentSource:U.S.BureauofLaborStatisticsNote:Numbersroundedtonearestthousand
UtahTotalEmploymentatNewHighsGainof339,700jobsfromlowin
2010
Lossof92,000jobsfrom2007-2010
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1.6% 0.5%
4.0% 3.6% 4.4%
3.1% 0.3%
4.5% 2.9%
7.6% -3.5%
-13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12%
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
PercentChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2017toMay2018
Total:3.5%
UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowth
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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4,000
2005,700
7,0009,100
2,600100
12,4003,700
7,400-300
-3,000 -1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,00013,00015,000
GovernmentOtherServices
Leisure&HospitalityEd.&HealthServ.Prof.&Bus.Serv.FinancialActivity
InformationTrade,Trans.,Utilities
ManufacturingConstruction
Ntl.Res.&Mining
Total:51,900
UtahIndustriesSeeingGrowthTotalChangeinUtahEmploymentbyIndustry:May2017toMay2018
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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ChangesandDifferencesBetweenUSandUtahEconomies
Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstituteAnalysisofBEANationalandProductAccountData
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ChangesinUtah’sTaxbase
Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstituteanalysisofUtahofficeofLegislativeResearchandGeneralcounseldata
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UtahEmploymentChangeRatesByCountyMay2017toMay2018StateRate=3.4%
1.0%to3.2%
0.0%to0.9%
5.0%+
3.3%to4.9%
Loss
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
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VT3.4%
NH4.4%
MA3.8%
RI3.5%CT
3.9%NJ2.7%
MD2.6%
DC5.7%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
UtahHasthe11th LowestUnemploymentRateMay2018U.S.Rate=3.8%;UT=3.0%
6.0%+
5.5%to5.9%
4.8%to5.4%
4.0%to4.7%
3.9%orless
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UtahUnemployment
RatesByCounty
April2018
StateRate=3.1%
Source:UtahDepartmentofWorkforceServices
4.0%to5.9%
6.0%to6.9%
3.1%orlower
3.2%to3.9%
7.0%+
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DE2.5%
VT3.4%
NH4.4%
MA3.8%
RI3.5%CT
3.9%NJ2.7%
MD2.6%
DC5.7%
Source:BureauofLaborStatistics
UtahPersonalIncomeGrowth3rd HighestintheNationPercentChangeinPersonalIncome:2016- 2017
U.S.=3.1%,UT=4.4%ID= 4.7%
3.6%to3.9%2.0%to3.5%
4.0%ormore
0.0%to1.9%Decrease
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2016U.S.Rate=14.0%,UtahRate=10.1%
Source:U.S.CensusBureau,AnnualCommunitySurvey1-yearestimate
NM19.8%
UT10.1%
AZ16.3%
CA14.3%
NV13.8%
OR13.3%
TX15.6%
OK16.3%
CO11.0%
WA11.3%
ID14.4%
MT13.3%
WY11.3%
ND10.6%
SD13.3%
MN9.9%
NE11.4%
KS12.1%
IA11.8%
MO14.0%
AR17.1%
LA20.1%
WI11.8%
IL13.0%
IN14.1%
OH14.6%
FL14.6%
TN 15.8%
KY18.5%
MS20.8%
AL17.1%
GA16.0%
SC15.3%
NC 15.4%
VA11.0%
WV17.8%
PA12.9%
NY14.6%
ME12.5%
AK9.9%
HI9.3%
MA10.4%
VT11.9%
NH7.2%
RI12.8%
CT9.8%
NJ10.4%
DE11.6%
MD9.6%
MI15.0%
DC18.6%
15.1% to 18.0%12.1% to 15.0%
10.0% or less
10.1% to 12.0%
18.1% +
UtahPovertyRate7th LowestintheNation
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StrongConsumerSentiment
5060708090100110120130140
Jul-12
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-13
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-14
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-15
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-16
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Nov-17
Mar-18
U.S.ConsumerConfidenceIndex:128.0
ZionsBankUtahConsumerAttitudeIndex:110.7
Above110indicateseconomicprosperity
Sources:ConferenceBoardandCiceroGroup
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UtahInflationHitsHighest-LevelRecorded
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Jul-2
011
Oct-2011
Jan-2012
Apr-2
012
Jul-2
012
Oct-2012
Jan-2013
Apr-2
013
Jul-2
013
Oct-2013
Jan-2014
Apr-2
014
Jul-2
014
Oct-2014
Jan-2015
Ap
r-2015
Jul-2
015
Oct-2015
Jan-2016
Ap
r-2016
Jul-2
016
Oct-2016
Jan-2017
Ap
r-2017
Jul-2
017
Oct-2017
Jan-2018
Apr-2
018
UnitedStatesCPI:+2.8% ZionsBankWasatchFrontCPI:+5.0%
Source:U.S.CPIfromNationalBureauofLaborStatisticsandWasatchFrontCPIfromCiceroGroup
Utah5.0%
US2.8%
Year-over-y
earp
ercent
change
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Utahhomevaluescontinuetorise
$95,000$115,000$135,000$155,000$175,000$195,000$215,000$235,000$255,000$275,000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
UnitedStates Utah
UtahDec.2017$262,200
U.S.Dec.2017$206,300
Source:ZillowResearch
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HouseholdCreationSurpassesHousingUnits
Source:Kem C.GardnerPolicyInstitutePopulationProjectionsandIvoryBoyerConstructionDatabase
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HomePricesIncreasingFasterThanWages
Source:WallStreetJournal
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MultigenerationalHouseholdsontheRise
Source:WallStreetJournal
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Sources:StateofUtahRevenueAssumptionsWorkingGroup,Moody’sEconomy.com,IHSGlobalInsights e=estimatef=forecast
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
RetailSales
HomePrices
PersonalIncome
UnemploymentRate
NonfarmEmployment
Population
2016 2017e 2018f 2019f
UtahEconomicIndicators2016-2019f
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RobertSpendloveEconomicandPublicPolicyOfficer
Email:[email protected]:801-560-5394
ZionsBank,ADivisionofZB,N.A.MemberFDIC.
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