wholesale pricing trends - manheim auctions€¦ · manheim index versus mix & quality adjusted...

6/29/16

Tom Webb,Cox Automotive

Wholesale Pricing Trends –Will supply outstrip “effective” demand?

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16

Source: Manheim Consulting

January 1995 = 100

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Manheim Index versus Mix & Quality Adjusted New Vehicle Pricewith 3 ½ year Lag

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Manheim Consulting

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Percent Change on Annual Average Basis

Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index

Source: Manheim Consulting

Price Movements for Selective Car Classes (2007 = 100)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140Industry Compact car Midsize car Luxury car

Source: Manheim Consulting

Price Movements for Selective Truck Classes (2007 = 100)

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150Industry Pickup CUV / SUV Van

Source: Manheim Consulting

New Vehicle Lease Originations

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Mill

ions

Source: Manheim Consulting

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

mill

ions

of u

nits

Source: Manheim Consulting

Total Wholesale Supply: Off-lease

Off-lease Volumes versus CPO Sales

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Mill

ions

CPO Sales Off-lease

Source: Manheim Consulting & Automotive News

CPO as % of New Vehicle Sales Over Prior 4 Years

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Total Industry BMW Mercedes Audi Lexus

Source: Manheim Consulting

Total Wholesale Supply: Off-rental

0.50.70.91.11.31.51.71.92.12.3

Mill

ions

Source: Manheim Consulting

Share on New Vehicle Sales into Rental

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

GM Ford FCA Toyota Nissan Mazda Hyundai Kia

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 May ytd 2016

Source: Bobit Business Media & Automotive News

Rental Risk Vehicles Remarketed at Auctions2011 Q3 2014 Q3 2015 Q3

Number of unique year, make, model, body configurations sold

2,216 3,303 3,756

Share accounted for top 10 YMMB 28.2% 17.3% 15.6%

Share accounted for top 25 YMMB 46.5% 21.7% 26.9%

Number of YMMB to reach 50% share 31 86 85

Source: Manheim Consulting

Total Wholesale Supply: Off-rental, Off-lease, & Repos

Source: Manheim Consulting

3.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.0

Mill

ions

% Change Used Units Retailed – Same Store Basis(Publicly-traded Dealership Groups)

-25%-20%

-15%-10%

-5%0%

5%10%

15%20%

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Source: Company filings

Weighted average for KMX *, AN, PAG, SAH, GPI, ABG, and LAD

*KMX shifted forward one month to correspond with calendar quarter

Used Vehicle Retail Gross Margin (Publicly-traded Dealership Groups)

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

11.5%

12.0%

12.5%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Sales-weighted average for KMX *, AN, PAG, SAH, GPI, ABG, and LAD

*KMX shifted forward one month to correspond with calendar quarter Source: Company filings

17

ExchangeRates

EnergyMarkets

Credit Conditions

Longer-term loansAvailability

Lease subvention

Interest ratesSeverity of loss

LTVs

Labor Market

Age & education differences

Participation rateHours and earningsInvoluntary part-time

Under-employed

Dominant ForcesShaping the Automotive Industry