using human security concept for analysing impacts of natural disasters

USING HUMAN SECURITY CONCEPT FOR ANALYSING

IMPACTS OF NATURAL DISASTERS

Mg.sc.pol. RIHARDS BAMBALSPhD student | Department of Political Science |

University of Latvia

International Conference “World in Change: from Consumption to Sustainability, from

Competition to Collaboration, from Hierarchy to Networks, from being Good to Doing Good”

Riga, 19 May 2014

Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

What is a DISASTER? “An event concentrated in time and

space, in which a society or one of its subdivisions undergoes physical harm and social disruption, such that some essential functions of the society or subdivision are impaired” (Fritz, 1961: 655);

“Events that kill at least 10 or affect at least 100 people” (UNDP, 1994: 29);

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What is a DISASTER? (II) “(1) disasters are inherently social phenomena,

and (2) the source of disasters is rooted in the social structure or social system” (Quarantelli, 2005:339);

“If there are no negative social consequences, there is no disaster” (Quarantelli, 2005:347);

“(Disaster) risk faced by people must be seen as a cross-cutting combination of vulnerability and hazard. Disasters are a result of the interaction between both” (Risk=Hazard x Vulnerability) (Wisner, Blaikie, Cannon & Davis, 2004:49)

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What is a DISASTER? (III)No one discipline (inter-disciplinary

research in both social & natural sciences)No ultimate definition of disasterNo ‘disaster theory’No ultimate research methodologyCommon approach – social

consequences of disasters more important than physical harm:

1) Social Sciences research people and societies;2) Only social structures can be strengthened to enhance

disaster preparedness, mitigation and recovery

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What is HUMAN SECURITY? People-centric, comprehensive and

universal security concept Development studies & Security Studies UNDP Human Development Report 1994:

‘Freedom from want’ & ‘Freedom from fear’ ‘Safety from such chronic threats as hunger, disease

and repression’ & ‘protection from sudden and hurtful disruptions in the patterns of daily life – whether in homes, jobs or in communities’ (UNDP, 1994:23)

7 security dimensions: economic, food, health, environmental, personal, community, political security

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Shortcomings of Human Security (HS):

No commonly accepted definitionToo vague as a concept (more efforts on

widening than deepening)No one particular scientific disciplinePoor efforts to operationalize & measure

Human Security (“How much (in)security?”)The comprehensive nature of HS has been

constantly ignored (mostly used ONLY in LDCs)Only few attempts to use for disaster research

Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

‘Perfect marriage’=Disasters+Human security Outcasts (no discipline) → interdisciplinary research Common interests → human, society Unfinished → room for improvements/new scientific

approaches & models Society’s resilience (HS) is hard to test

without external impact (e.g. natural disasters)

Objectives: ▪ Create new analytical tool/approach for disaster research▪ Deepen Human Security concept, prove its holistic nature

and possibilities to apply to any society in the world▪ Longterm: research which (and why) societies are more

resilient to natural disasters than other

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Measuring Human Security

Previous attempts:

•UNDP Reports (Human Security Unit, 2009);•Generalized Poverty Index (King & Murray, 2002);•Human Security Audit (Bajpai, 2000);•GECHS (Lonergan, Gustavson & Carter, 2009);•Human Security Report Index;•Human Security Mapping (Owen, 2004).

HOWEVERall suffer from various shortfalls:

•Only objective HS is measured;•Too big reliance

on data availability;•Only some (not

all) of 7 HS dimensions are analysed;•Only LDCs are

usually researched

Objective HS:

Subjective HS:

• Statistics & indexes• Several indicators for each of 7 HS dimensions, compared before & after disaster• Values assigned based on comparisons (0-1)•Social surveys & interviews•Socially constructed sense of security;• Precise, quantifiable and inter-comparable results•Fast & representable

&

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Human Security Analytical Tool

1. UNDP Report 1994:definition of HS &7 dimensions of HS threats

2. UNDP Latvia Report 2003: Subjective & Objective HS; ‘securitabilities’;personal security strategies;security constellations3. Comprehensive HS

model (Ozolina, 2012): interaction between state & individual,role of intermediaries, area of HS

Objective HS: Case of Japan after 3/11

Subjective Human Security :Case of Latvia (Ogre, April 2013)

Timeframe of the floods: 15 to 19 April 2013People and households affected (officially): 1 deceased and 23 people evacuated, 39 indemnification applications and 120 households affected/damagedThe scale of damages: ~2 000 000 Lats (3 million Euro)Main providers of security: • State-provided – VUGD, police, emergency medical aid

and National Guard (armed forces)• Non-conventional - local religious community, Red Cross,

local NGOs, private entrepreneurs, enterprises & individuals

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Subjective Human Security :Case of Latvia (Ogre, April 2013)

Population size: 28 151 (Ogre town + Ogresgals = affected regions)Initial target: 1% of the population (281). Samples (~50 each) from 6

different districts: 3 (50%) from directly affected (close proximity to the river); 3 (50%) from indirectly affected

Surveying time: 4 to 19 May, 2013 (2-4 weeks after the floods)Results: N=270 (0.96% of population; 38.52% men and 61.11%

woman), Margin of error = 5.9% (with 95% level of confidence)Questionnaire with 8 questions (all close ended multiple

choice): Self evaluation of HS changes (each of 7 dimensions) after floods; Evaluation of the assistance provided, Trust to different security providers, Intensity of HS threat perception, Demographics, proximity to the river, filtering question.

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Results: Changes in 7 HS dimensions

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Results: Changes in 7 HS dimensions (ranked)

Human Security Dimension

Affected by the floods in Ogre (2013)

1. Environmental security

59.26%

2. Food security 30.56%3. Personal security 29.63%4. Health security 24.08%5. Economic security 22.41%6. Community security 22.22%7. Political security 5.93%

Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

Trust to security providersSecurity provider Level of trust

1. Family, closest relatives 94.07% 2. Own strength 89.63% 3. Friends, acquaintances 88.89% 4. Service of the state for

rescue and fire-fighting (VUGD)

82.97%

5. Emergency medical aid 79.26% 6. Police of the local

municipality 67.41%

7. National Guard (armed forces)

60.74%

8. The municipality of Ogre region

35.19%

9. Aid from an international organization (EU, NATO, UN, etc.)

29.63%

10. Aid from another country 24.82% 11. Latvian government 21.11%

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Human security threat perception intensity

Conclusions & way-forward Human Security has potential to become a new approach for

disaster research. It allows: Identify & measure, which security dimension (and how much) is

affected; Measure changes in public perception of different threats; Measure society’s trust/confidence to state & non-state security

providers. Disasters & Human Security apply to any country → HS analytical

tool is holistic & universal Disasters ≠ homogenous. They can (and do) affect each of 7 HS dimensions HS changes after disaster → quality of ‘securitabilities’ before it

(knowledge and skills for not losing sense of security, or its fast recovery) States investing in HS have more resilient societies

(Japan) People around & networking matter more than state

provided security constellations (good or dangerous?)Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

Contact me: rihards.bambals@gmail.com

Conclusions & way-forward (II)

Human Security analytical tool could be used in: Academic – improve knowledge on disasters and

Human Security concept; Policy – better disaster preparedness, risk

mitigation and recovery; Insurances - risk evaluation; Finances - foreign investment (risk) analysis Development – medium/long-term state

development strategies (Latvian NAP, 2014-2020) Foreign policy/international relations – smarter

development aid programmes (Japan, Canada, Norway)

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Conclusions & way-forward (II)

What I do for my PhD thesis research? “Changes of Human Security after disasters

in Japan, Phillippines, Australia and Poland”; Comparative analysis of Objective HS = done.

Searching options for researching Subjective HS (nation-wide surveying, incl. Japan);

Results will allow to identify, which states are more resilient to disasters, and which factors (and ‘securitabilities’) influence it. Can they be adapted in other states? Formula for sustainable development?