urban planning and futures

On Futures studies

Aleksi NeuvonenDemos Helsinkialeksi.neuvonen@demos.fiTwitter: Leksis

1.Futures studies - what?

1.Futures studies - what?2.Futures studies - why?

1.Futures studies - what?2.Futures studies - why?3.Futures studies - how?

1.Futures studies - what?2.Futures studies - why?3.Futures studies - how?4.Examples

predictive (probable futures)

predictive (probable futures)explorative (possible futures)

predictive (probable futures)explorative (possible futures)normative (desirable futures)

PoliciesEconomySocialTechnologyEnvironmentCulture

Several domains,Systemic view

Scenarios are always part of a strategic process.

"A hypothetical sequence of events constructed for the purpose of focusing attention on causal processes and decision points ."

Herman Kahn & Antony Wiener: The Year 2000. A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years (1967, s. 6)

1.Primary forecast (the trend);

2.Secondary forecasts (alternative reactions); and

3.Tertiary forecast (preferences of the decision-maker)

de Jouvenell

Primary forecast

2000 2010 2020 2030

Congestion, current streets

Secondary forecast

2000 2010 2020 2030

Current planNew ring roadUndergroud

Tertiary forecast

2000 2010 2020 2030

Current planNew ring roadCongestion charge

There are always ”black swans”Scenarios help to take them into account.

We are capable of anticipating the future because of the...

1.investments we have agreed on

2.hopes and plans people individually and collectively have

3.slow changing demographic structures

4.persisting habits and traditions.

5.cyclical and linear processes in the nature.

However, future cannot be predicted, because of the ...

1. pure chance

1. pure chance2. chaotic processes

1. pure chance2. chaotic processes3. new information constantly shapes beliefs,

attitudes and behavior

1. pure chance2. chaotic processes3. new information constantly shapes beliefs,

attitudes and behavior4. teknological innovation alters practices.

Therefore:

1.Lifestyles change

Therefore:

1.Lifestyles change

2.Viability of technologies change

Therefore:

1.Lifestyles change

3.Strucutures of economy and business change

Therefore:

1.Lifestyles change

4.Capability for investments change

Therefore:

1.Lifestyles change

4.Capability for investments change

5.Political priorities change

Therefore:

1. Define the domain of the study

2. Define rigid factors and persisting structures

3. Understand mega-trends and long-lasting values

4. Define conflicting trends and their unexpected consequences

5. Check the issues you don’t know enough about that are usually thought to be almost self-evident

6. Trace early signs of change, evaluate their possible impact

7. Create coherent, logical and surprising scenarios or states of futures

Discuss:

1. What are the rigid factors and persisting structures that shape your project assignment.

Discuss:

2. What trends affecting your assignment could be conflicting with each other or with rigid structures?

What futures bring to planning process?

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Business

Innovations

LifestylesFgoqetcvke"rtqeguu

Define topics

Business

Innovations

Define topics

Planning

Define norms & goals

Business

Innovations

Define topics

Planning

Infrastructure

Define tools & measures

Business

Innovations

Define topics

Planning

Infrastructure

Futures, foresight

Business

Innovations

Define topics

Planning

Infrastructure

Futures, foresight

Intrepreta

tion of

change

public de

bate,co

mpeting p

aradigm

2012 20522032

Normative vision

Experiments

Transition management

What futures bring planning process?

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Democratic process

Define topics

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Democratic process

Define topics

Planning

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Democratic process

Define topics

Planning

Infrastructure

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Democratic process

Define topics

Planning

Infrastructure

Futures, foresight

Business

Innovations

Lifestyles

Democratic process

Define topics

Planning

Infrastructure

Futures, foresight

New tools for change

promising practices, emerging regimes

Why is futures studies essential to urban planning?

1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of stakeholders → facilitating communication

1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of stakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development → visions of paradigm beyond transformation

1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of stakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development → visions of paradigm beyond transformation3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness in post-materialistic society with resource constrains

1.From top-down planning to interaction of vast number of stakeholders → facilitating communication2.Increased probability of dis-continuities in societal development → visions of paradigm beyond transformation3.Re-definition of societal goals → what brings about happiness in post-materialistic society with resource constrains4.Need to conjoin different types of resources into planning process (in addition to capital of municipalities and real-estate companies)

Discuss: What is the relevance of these challenges to your project assignment? Which are the most relevant ones?

Discuss:

2. What trends affecting your assignment could be conflicting with each other or with rigid structures?

Example:

Greater Helsinki Vision 2050

What futures can offer for urban planning?

1. Systemic approach on process of socio-technical change, including social and economic drivers

2. Way of managing parallel processes in long time-scales

3. Systematic exploration of alternatives → index of opportunities discovered, available to be reconsidered

4. Explication of broad societal goals → displaying different ways of bringing about these goals

5. Tool for engaging different stakeholders to the planning process.

Approach

Domain of goalsPredictive Explorative Normative

preservingNormative

transformative

Culture

Macro economy

Physical structures

Industries, public organisations

Lifestyles, households

Decide on approach, define domains to be prioritized and covered

1.Forecasting 2.Backcasting

Two approaches for creating futures scenarios

Space of opportunities

2050Now

Carbon budgetPeak oil

Core vision

Usual future perspective

9.11.2011

”The door is closing,” Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, said. ”I am very worried – if we don't change direction now on how we use energy, we will end up beyond what scientists tell us is the minimum [for safety]. The door will be closed forever.”

2050Now

Carbon budgetPeak oil

Core vision

Usual future perspective

Future perspective with system boundaries

20502011 20302020

20502050

Future 1

Future 2

Future 3

Future 4

TrendsDrivers Scenarios

Unexpected events

Decisions

Scenarios: forecasting

Emergingpatterns

20502011 20302020

20502050

Future 1

Future 2

Future 3

Future 4Promising practices

Drivers Scenarios

Goals,Boundary conditions

Visions + backcasting process

Decisions

Unexpected events

Forecasting Backcasting

Philosophical view

Perspective

Approach

Methods and techniques

Context of justificationcausality determinism

Context of discoveryCausality and intentions

Dominant trendsLikely futures

Possible marginal adjustmentshow to adapt to trends

Societal problem in need of a solutionDesirable futures

Scope of human choiceStreategic decisions

Retain freedom of action

Extrapolate trends into the futureSensitivity analyses

Define interesting futuresAnalyse consequences and conditions

for these futures to materialise

Various econometric modelsmathematical algorithms

partial and conditional extrapolationsNormative models, system dynamics

models, Delphi methods, expert judgements

Backcasting process

1. Define goals

Backcasting process

1. Define goals

2. Investigate the goal (is it really transformative)

Backcasting process

1. Define goals

3. Images of the future

Backcasting process

1. Define goals

3. Images of the future

4. Analyze the paths to futures, where are the trend breaks

Backcasting process

Multilevel model of social innovation

Promising practice II

Promising practice III

Promising practice IV

Promising practice V Promising

practice VII

Promising practice VI

Promising practice I

practice VII

Niches level

practice VII

Niches level

practice VII

Embedding Multiplying Up scaling

Niches level

practice VII

Markets, Science, Policies

Markets, Science, Policie Markets, Science,

Policies

Niches level

practice VII

Policies

Regime level

Niches level

practice VII

Policies

Regime level

Landscape levelSocietal values, overall paradigms, megatrends

1. Occasional backcasting exercises to test feasibility of existing plans

2. Participatory scenario processes for communicating and creating discussion with stakeholders on strategic plans

3. Continuous collection of signals of change through Delphi surveys and other forms of expert judgement studies

How to use futures studies in urban planning?

Examples of scenarios on futures of urban areas and lifestyles

The Metka model

Population, housing, services

Transportation

Environment

Economics, businesses, employment

SCENARIOS ON SUSTAINABLE LIFESTYLES

8 | SPREAD Sustainable lifestyles 2050 Counting Backwards Workshop 24th – 25th November 2011 in Tuusula, Finland | 9

Start here!The goal of the SPREAD 2050 Counting backwards workshop is to create four alternative scenarios on future of sustainable lifestyles. In order to make these scenarios differ from each other, we have defined four future landscapes through which the scenarios are constructed.

Starting point for your alternative futures

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocracy Human-centrism

These landscapes are based on two fundamental assumptions of variables that define societies. The assumptions are:

Technology is either pandemic or endemic.The governing principle of the society is either human-centric or meritocratic.

We believe that sustainable societies are achievable within all the four alternative future landscapes (pre-sented on the next opening). Your task is to find out how.

Pandemic technologyGlobally there are a few dominant technologies for each task or human need. Building, transportation, energy, and communication exist everywhere in a similar man-ner. There’s fierce competition in global markets and commercial dominance yields huge rewards. Technol-ogy of 2011 could be called pandemic. Everyone’s on facebook and drives a car (produced by a few global manufacturers) running on petrol or diesel fuel (globally

exchanged goods).

Human-centrismA human-centric society circles around wid-ening the use of human capital in all its forms. Both civic and public use of skills is valued. Everyone has something valuable to give or to do. Society’s success depends on all of its members and their ability to be good citizens, family members, neighbours and profession-als. There is some division of labour, but self-improvement through leisure is also very much appreciated: e.g. family time, active consump-tion, civic activities, handicraft, arts. You do what you can – and feel motivated to.

MeritocracyA meritocratic society circles around profes-sional skills. The most commercially valu-able professional skills are engines of the economy. Holders of those professions are being paid accordingly. Policies and struc-tures of society are customized to facilitate work of the leading industries and profes-sions. Division of labour is at its extreme. You do only what you’re really good at.

Endemic technologyThe tools, infrastructures, and solutions we use are born and grown locally: technology harnesses local condi-tions, resources, and peculiarities. Local living condi-tions rule technology. Where there is wood, houses are built of logs – where days are extremely hot, people live in tents. The corpus of global science and technology is wide, yet applications are highly local. The economy is driven by efficiency and innovations gained through

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Meritocratic society Human-centrism

The Singular Super Elite

Local loops The world is build bottom-up by the best engineers. Global interaction between people is mediated, not direct. Some institutions – such as science – remain global.

Different areas command different economic and technological systems, but are only connected through elites and institutions. In addition, science dominates global structures. All areas have their own combination of influential professional groups. Local

professional guilds are therefore both the innovation system and the environmental agent. Local material flows circulate rarely to the world market and most of the value is produced through local resources. Understanding the geographical context has created an array of smart sustainable lifestyles.

Governing the Commons Hobby groups have grown global. Communities are formed based on personal interests, values, and motives. Communities with a strong bond can shape society from unexpected angles and redefine their professional and leisure identities.

Everyone has something to contribute. Even the most trivial skills can be used to kick start large scale global projects. Clear bound-aries of work and leisure have been replaced by spending time on

micro-contributions or micro-tasks. Specialisation does not make sense since global tech-nologies can make even our most mundane activities productive. There is a wide array of interest groups based on common causes. Networks of billions contribute in creating social and technological innovations for sustainable lifestyles.

Happy Communities Sharing is caring. This is the next level of the welfare state where everyone has a place and way of being useful. 12-year-olds or the elderly can come up with new innovations just like anybody else.

If you share, you thrive. Successful economies are based on shar-ing. Everything is co-created, do-it-yourself or at least customized. Societies provide possibilities for everyone to give their input. There really is no gap between consumer and producer. People

rarely buy ready services, but commit to longer processes to get what they desire and then share their commodities. Seamless collaboration and the idea of avoiding wasting resources form a strong foundation for sustainable lifestyles.

The Zuckerbergs and Jobs’ of the future see sustain-able lifestyles as the market opportunity of this century. Innovation is driven by the few with meritable skills, and solutions in society are globally applicable business models.

Everything has a price and a business model. The humankind operates within one techno-economic system, with highly standardized meters of performance. Society is transparent

and most things have become measurable and most things have a price. Data is open and easy to access. Best practices spread like wildfire. Fast spreading technologies and competition on every level increase efficiency and make sustainable lifestyles pos-sible.

Endemic Technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic Technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

SINGULAR SUPER CHAMPIONS

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

KEY DRIVERS OF SINGULAR SUPER ELITE

1. Major changes in production structures through EU policy shift (policy) Evidence based policy-making gains prominence after the political turbulence within the Euro area which closes ties of politics and research in forming policies.

Remarkable boom in efficiency and renewables in China. Vitality of renewables is coming very largely from the vibrant private sector and not from the state-owned enterprises.

2. Price mechanism, it works! (economy)Pressure to run down technologically and ecologically outdated production processes and eliminate expensive and harmful incentives through cutting economic subsidies (e.g. fuel subsidies) and internalizing ecological costs in prices.

3. Sustainability makes money (technology)Thanks to major leaps in technology, first cost-effective large scale upcycling processes are launched in the global markets. Enterprises start develop around provision and distribution of resources. Cradle to cradle is the fastest growing area of research.

4. Learning, not earning (values)Education not only in classroom. Aims to provide the kids as early as possible with the cognitive tools that will enable them to take more ethical decisions and think critically on subjects. Competitiveness is nurtured as it’s seen as the only way to compete on global markets.

Self-mastery becomes the new sport and hobby. People’s freetime is spent in learning institutions.

Retail companies have personal balance sheet for customers own natural resources in their possession. Extreme loyalty schemes.

Everywhere in the city, you have diffused education. Not only schools, but in society as whole. For instance, you can educate yourself in shops, the shops enable you to learn by providing information about the products and processes etc. If you want to eat special things, you learn how to cook it. Learning restaurants instead of consuming restaurants.

Micro-agriculture compact and densify cities. Evaluating all built and unbuilt land based on their food production potential is standard part of urban planning.Urban farmer is a common profession.

THESE DRIVERS RESULT SUCH BITS OF LIFESTYLES AS...

GOVERNING THE COMMONS

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

KEY DRIVERS OF DRIVERS OF GOVERNING THE COMMONS

1. 3D printing changes the structures of production and consumption (technology)

2. Ubiquitous society increases the amount of human interaction through p2p-services and digital environments (social, technology)

3. People want more meaningful jobs and welfare that goes beyond 20th century welfare (values)

4. Overwhelming amount of scientific data translates into decline popularity of religions (values)

People learn various skills in order to be sure that they can do whatever tasks necessary and thus guarantee their impact in building the society. (Source of human value)

Work week is 4 days and people can divide it however they please. (Leisure time)

Most of the day I offer my input to various processes of co-production (eg. when in bus I answer few queries about my preferences and thus help the company). (Society, Time usage)

People are constantly linked to different institutes and people worldwide. This leads to active ways of governance. (Political decision making)

A lot of effort to building personal virtual environment to be as pleasant as possible. Premium services of FB, Twitter etc. become must haves. (Technology, Social Bonds)

Internet and web-based solutions in everyday-life arrangements will be growing in importance leading to less need to leave home to take care of things. (Leisure time, Technology)

People actively shape their surroundings through action. Every morning I answer a question that someone from my interest group has posted and those decision shape the surroundings. (Living Environment)

Every action produces a counter-reaction and interest groups are formed by these contexts. During a day I’m part of 9 different groups.

LOCAL LOOPS

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Elderlyhouses turned into future "business parks". Workforce and expertice is there, capital and business intelligence is only needed.

Microcurrencies shape to form microsocieties.

Old people want to remain active both socially and in terms of work and use the skills they have developed earlier.

a re-awakening of the desire for a sense of community. The state is a less secure source of support, so elderly are relying on themselves and not others.

scarcity of resources, communities that grow their own food and energy

Link to local/micro entrepreneurs ... Common and shared goods owned by small local communities: high efficiency appliances. Production on demand.

End of the oil and coal era, big investments to local renewable energy resources. Decentralised electricity production become cheaper and more secure than centralized fossile-based production in 2020.

KEY DRIVERS OF LOCAL LOOPS

1. Fierce global resource competition and peak oil (environment)

2. Harnessing various kinds of local resources through advanced technology (technology)

3. 90 degrees turn in value patterns towards localism (values)

4. New notion of work (social)

People form guilds with their professional peers.

Majority of population live in neighborhoods that are defined according their own profession and guild. People spend great part of their leisure time within their neighborhood. However, people work long hours and very often consider their fellow guild members as their closest friends.

Extreme division of labour means that people don’t do very many things – cleaning, maintaining of home devices, elderly care – themselves but instead rely very much on professional services.

The concept of retiring has ceased to exist. The role of seniors is to transfer their professional experience and tacit knowledge much more comprehensively than in 2012.

Efficient local resource and cradle-to-cradle thinking have led to highly diverse ways of consumption. People want to be aware of the local life cycles of goods they consume. Global franchices don’t exist any more.

EMPATHIC COMMUNITIES

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

Pandemic technology

Endemic technology

exchanged goods).

thinking locally.

KEY DRIVERS OF EMPATHIC COMMUNITIES

1. Extreme price of natural resources. (environment)2. Financial system breaks down and is replaced with

local systems of exchange. (economy)3. Crises forces us to re-evaluate and understand the

possibilities for local production (economy, technology)

4. New world order → growth looses meaning as central driver (politics)

Local communities are tribe-like groups that are based on trust and reputation. Empathy towards all other humans drives social life and facilitates deliberative decisionmaking.

Private living space is decreased by increasing shared spaces. Everybody has 20 m2 per person for themselves and spaces for eating, washing, working, bathing, playing are shared. At homes functions are more important than square meters.

Leisure time as a concept is being replaced by idea of reflection time. It is time when you don’t have strict responsibilities and disturbing noise from commercial and other information source is absent.

Resource scarcity has lead into highly developed forms of sharing and collaborative production.

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