scenarios - approaches for exploring urban futures
TRANSCRIPT
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
Scenarios and Urban Futures
Ian Miles Professor of Technological Innovation & Social Change
Centre for Service Research & MIoIR
Manchester Business School
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Working Definition of Scenario
• Systematic, explicit account of possible future (of some object of attention).
• May emphasise more or less the Future State or the Future History that results in this.
• Scenarios differentiated from Profiles and Vignettes.
Discussed in various locations, e.g. R Phaal and I Miles, 2009, Practice on Roadmapping, Prague, Technology Center of the Academy of Sciences ASCR, for UNIDO; ISBN 978-80-252-0109-1 online most recently athttp://www.researchgate.net/publication/235217859_Practice_on_Roadmapping/file/9fcfd5107a3e69a63a.pdf?ev=pub_ext_doc_dl&docViewer=true
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR What do we want scenarios for?
Policy insight: Explore possibilities, assumptions, alternatives that should be considered when strategies are developedKnowledge development: Sharing our own models of the issues and integrating at least some elements of these – Process benefits of scenario building as structuring conversations, dialogues.Research tool: Developing a tool for interviews and subsequent examination of specific topics, regions, sectorsPresentation: Developing frameworks for communication and presentation of the study results
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Scenarios about what?
About some “object of focus”- OOF – a domain or system that we wish to study (usually in order to influence or steer) – like a city.
Often the OOF – its boundaries, its key features - is is poorly defined at the outset, and may not even be very meaningfully understood as a system: so some new drawing of boundaries of study may be helpful.
Scenario processes help build and share models of the system, its dynamic processes, and possible evolution.
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Developing Scenarios
“Genius” methods; informal (SF) and formal (interviews)
Expert Groups
Surveys: viewpoints in population (can be clustered)
Models: shifting model parameters, or assumptions about relationships
Gaming
Scenario Workshops
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIRThree Broad Methodsin Scenario Analysis
Most common for Multiple Scenario Analysis:
Departure: asking What if? - Exploratory, Outward, Driver or Event –based
Destination: asking How Come? - Normative, Inward, Profile or Archetype – based
Single Scenario Analysis:
Desire: asking What and How? - Normative, Aspirational, Success
Departures
Destinations
Destination
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Departures
What if these forces continue to operate? this or that uncertain event occurs in the future?
Typically use STEEPV or similar; identify critically important drivers, and examine consequences of (a) continued operation of relatively predictable drivers (b) alternative outcomes for less predictable drivers.
Results in 2*2 matrix
Other approaches possible (e.g. scenarios per driver)
Develop Scenarios: storylines, how drivers operate and evolve, what outcome looks like.
Departures
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR GM multiple scenarios
Public / community &
ecological values
Global / macro & top-down dynamic
Regional / local & bottom up dynamic
Private enterprise /
economic values
Inspired by Foresight scenarios – conveniently described in F Berkhout and J Hertin, 2002, "Foresight Futures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic Planning Tool", GMI newsletter at http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/pdfs/gmi37ber.pdf
UK Future of Cities Working Paper 16: ‘Future of the Urban Environment’ (Joe Ravetz 2014).
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Comparative Appraisal ‘GLOBAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘LOCAL ENTERPRISE’ ‘GLOBAL COMMUNITY’ ‘LOCAL COMMUNITY’
Greater Manchester issues
Privatized government: Airport axis grows rapidly to global hub. High growth, inequality increases.
Breakup of AGMA etc: local govt as charity fund-raiser. Medium growth, inequality increases.
Centralized govt (UK, EU & global): GM is centre of ‘Northern Arc’. Medium growth, inequality is reduced
Decentralisation all around: new communities & lifestyles in rural areas. Low growth / high QOL, inequality levels.
Social, community Fragmented society, growing tensions: High population growth
Privatized society, retro social models:Medium pop. growth
Managed society: aims for equality & integration: Low pop. growth
Enclave society: aims for local self-determination: Medium pop. growth
Technology, infrastructure
global hi-tech supply chains: rapid ICT innovation
local low-tech supply chains: ICT stable
global hi-tech supply chains: rapid ICT innovation
local low-tech supply chains: ICT stable
Economic, employment Private firms, global labour market: High economic growth >3%
Private firms, local labour market: Medium growth (2%)
Social enterprise, global activities: Medium growth (2%)
Social enterprise, local activities: Low economic growth <1%
Environment, resources ESS degradation & pollution: Rapid climate change
exploitation & privatisation of ESS: Rapid climate change
conservation of ESS & public access: moderate climate change
Conservation of ESS with privatisation: moderate climate change
Policy, governance, institutions
Corporate-driven governance: at global level
Corporate driven governance: at local level
Public & civil governance at global level
Public & civil governance at local level
Cultural, ethical Material growth, winner-takes-all globalized culture
Material growth, winner-takes-all local autonomy
Socio-cultural growth, ecological stewardship
Socio-cultural growth, ecological stewardship
Urban / spatial development
Car-based urban sprawl, with sealed buildings: Counter-urbanisation
Localized rural development with low-tech buildings: sprawl and sub-urbanisation
Intensive large scale urban form with sealed buildings: Re-urbanisation
Intensive small scale urban form, with low-tech eco-buildings: De-centralisation.
UK system of cities London / SE continues to grow & dominate
Breakup of UK and break-away from EU
balanced development of UK regions & DAs
Local-regional agenda, with out-migration from London
Pressures & vulnerabilities in urban system
Airports & other hubs are over-used with major pollution, urban heat island etc
growing air & water pollution pressure from deregulation & privatisation
Large compact cities generate pressure & vulnerability of infrastructure
Pressures locally contained in enclaves
Gaps & opportunities in the urban system
Derelict & under-used land/ resources widespread, due to sprawl & pollution.
Derelict & under-used land/ resources, from deregulation & market gaps
Derelict & under-used land/ resources in hinterland, due to planning gaps
Derelict & under-used land/ resources in hinterland, due to social fragmentation
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Destinations
How different futures be realised?Typically begin with analysis of critically important drivers,
and examine how far these are relatively predictable and unpredictable; then set out a rough description of several future states –profiles.Destinations can be differentiated according to key
structural parameters – examine which elements of the system are influenced by drivers, or are of major concern.IAF approach: Three Scenario Profiles:
Alpha - α - “More than expected” (“Better”, “Faster”… etc)Beta - β - “Less than expected” (“Worse”, “Slower”… etc)
Gamma - γ - “Different than expected” (may prompt: radical difference)
The task is to develop a plausible scenario – not utopian, not dependent on wild cards or very unlikely events.
DestinationsDestinations
DestinationsDestinations
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Success Scenarios
A specific type of destination-based scenario.Here we typically build just one scenario.It has some similarity to the “better than expected” scenario in the archetype approach, but does not rely on external drivers working out in favourable directions.It is more of a stretch target - what desirable future could be achieved in this domain?Often this analysis proceeds after some multiple scenario analysis.Requires analysis of current state of affairs which we are seeking to change
What is success?
What actions promote it?
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR GM2040+ Workshop
Economy, employment, innovation
Environment, climate and energy
Social and cultural issues
Built environment
Governance, policy and democracy
STEEPV analysis: 21 drivers
Manchester Policy documents
Four scenarios
WORKSHOP: Plenaries and 54 Break Out Groups (Ambition Areas)
• Coverage• Main drivers
• Where we are• What would be success?
(where we could be if we try)
• What actions are needed
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIRE.g. BrOG on Environment,
climate and energyCoverage/ main issues:Sustainable lifestyle/community
Low carbon mobility/transport systems (location of things)
Energy – grid generation/optimising and/or reducing gas energy demand
Low carbon economy: skills & jobs
Climate change – GM unique specificities (opportunities & risks)
Green spaces/outdoor infrastructures
Top drivers: Inequality
Education and skills
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Each BrOG
Where are we now/what would be success (in terms of these main issues)?
How is GM currently perceived by informed observers?
How could GM be perceived in 2040, if sufficient effort is made?
Develop Exemplaries – concrete, achievable, examples
World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%
World leader Top 20% Top 50% Bottom 50%
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR
Exemplaries – Group 3 – Environment & EnergySustainable lifestyle
There should be no people in fuel povertyEveryone knows 5 other people on their street (this was a comment about social isolation and a concern to try and address that)Everyone should know how to contact/influence their local councillor95% skilled 18+ target
Low carbon Remove car parks for employers.No car to work from within GMPeople should not be dying on our roadsCycle routes that are safe for kids to bike to schoolZero carbon aviation fuel programmeZero emission transport system in GM
Energy grid No gas use anymore we need it for power. Zero heat gas energy2 way IOT grip 80% penetration10 Twh local generation
Low carbon economy skills/jobs
Low carbon skills embedded in schools with challenge and competitions to de-carbonise GMTo be biggest LCEGS sector in UKX% GM companies signed up to and supporting supply chains on circular (type) economy
Circular economy
Waste free design and business network for sharing open-innovation/resourcesDematerialisation local goods purchase rank
Climate change GM unique specificities
GM planning policies and exemplar buildings that are for GM adaptationEveryone knows how climate and weather can affect them and their family/business and has plans to deal with itMinimum Heat/float incidentsPlanned support for extinct locations
Green spaces Everyone should see a flash of the living biosphere outside their window. Green space increase by 33%X km per green space\ resident park space
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Success Scenario Analysis
Bring together groups to discuss perceptions, ambitions.Seek to achieve more detailed definition of nature of success, reconcile possible contradictions.(when time permits, also examine:
How might we know if this scenario is emerging? What would be leading indicators?What should we be monitoring?)
Carousel or other approach to generate suggestions for actions (non-voluntaristic) required from different stakeholders.Discussion/prioritisation of actions.
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Stakeholders/ActionsGovernment
NationalAGMA/regionalOther
Public Services
Third Sector
Communities
Infrastructure and Services:UtilitiesMedia and CommunicationsHousing and Construction
Private SectorLocal/SMEsFinancial institutionsTransnational firms
Knowledge & SkillsPrimary & secondaryVocationalHEIs
Carousel:Improved actions/ New actions/ Dropped actions
Newcastle – Future of Cities Research Network – January 2015
MIIR Overall Outcomes
Limited by time pressure, limited scope of participation, growing preoccupation with Devo Manc...Several comments as to value of sharing knowledge with and learning from other policy groups with long-term focusRecognition of numerous uncertainties, of importance of issues like inequalityAffirmation of Manchester progress and potential, hope for further development and dissemination of work.