Livable Urban Futues: A critical Pathway to Transitioning

UGEC into Future Earth

Patricia Romero-Lankao, David Simon,

Thomas Elmqvist Corrie Griffith

AGU December 2014

Livable Urban Futures

I. Why do we need it?

II. How are we designing it?

III. Who is participating?

IV. What will it deliver?

New Orleans

I. Why? Urbanization and urban areas are key drivers of planetary environmental changes

Group VI (“haves”): Canada Czech Republic France Germany Greece Hungary Italy Japan Korea Netherlands Poland Portugal Spain United States

Group III (“haves and have some”): Argentina Australia Belgium Brazil Chile Mexico Saudi Arabia United Kingdom Venezuela

Group V (“have nots”): Burkina Faso Congo Ethiopia Kenya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mozambique Nepal Niger Tanzania Uganda Yemen Zambia

Group VII (“have some”): China Sri Lanka Thailand

Group VIII (“have some”): Indonesia Kazakhstan Romania Russian Federation Ukraine

72 countries total, 93% of global population

Romero Lankao, Nychka and Tribbia 2008

India

Urban areas face greatest risks

De Sherbinin-Romero Lankao (2008): The hazard risk of each city represents a cumulative score based on risk of cyclones, flooding, landslides and drought

Contoured: hazard risk associated with climate change

II. How?

1990’s Core projects Long-term Science plan (top- down) Scientific committee International Project Office

2015 Platforms/ networks and clusters Flexible scientific strategy Centers of synthesis Engage with stakeholders

6

Network of networks

II.Urban Team

Xuemei Bai SC liaison

Paty Romero Lankao David Simon

Debra Roberts EC liaison

Thomas Elmqvist Corrie Griffith (ASU IPO)

Livable Urban Futures

Timeline Scoping Meeting

February 2014 UTT Establishment January 2015

UGEC Synthesis Conference November 2014

Scoping/What is Urban Meeting March 2015

UTT/Boot Meetings Summer 2015

Urban Initiative established by Jsnuary 2016!

Survey

Who? Some of our Urban Networks

IAI

UBC

UCCRN

APN

GCP ISET

ELLA

SETIS ICLEI

ACCCRN

START

III. Other Urban Communities

• Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) • Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network (ACCCRN) • C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group (C40) • European Initiative on Smart Cities | SETIS - European Commission • Evidence and Learning from Latin American Cities (ELLA) • ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability (ICLEI) • Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) • International Finance Corporation (IFC) • Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-International (ISET) • Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training (START) • Living with Environmental Change (LWEC) • Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre • Rockefeller Foundation 100 Resilient Cities initiative • Slum and Shack Dwellers International (SDI) • UN-HABITAT • World Bank Low-Carbon Liveable Cities Initiative • World Bank Low-Carbon Livable Cities Initiative

IV. What?

Mission: to champion science that supports and challenges action, reflecting the centrality of the urban in transforming pathways to sustainable development

IV. What? Online Survey

• What are key urban research/policy questions?

• What are the research needs for future urban research?

• Who are the potential key partners?

• What other critical components must be considered in the design?

• How can local and regional science and policy communities be best involved?

Dynamic Urbanizing Planet

• How do urbanization/cities drive planetary environmental changes?

• How do they vary at different

scales (space, place, time, culture)?

• What are the risks and tipping

points in biodiversity, climate, air quality and hydrology?

Global Urban Development

• How does GEC affect urban populations, livelihoods, economic activities, and infrastructures?

• How vulnerable or adaptable

are urban actors, economic activities and infrastructure to current temperatures and to a future warmer world?

Urban Transformations towards Sustainability • What are the limits, barriers and

opportunities to transition to a more sustainable and resilient urban world?

• What lifestyles, ethics and approaches to sustainable, economically successful and livable cities are compatible with a transition to global sustainability?

– A set of four papers in the journal, Earth’s Future

A Special Issue on Urbanization and Carbon

A comparison of contemporary research on urbanization, cities and carbon

Engineers Social scientists Natural scientists

Definitions of

"carbon" of

urban

relevance

An input (fossil fuels) that

directly or indirectly

supports human activities;

an output (GHG)

A natural resource, an

element embedded in

materials (e.g., cement) or

a pollutant/waste

The flow, flux or exchange of carbon

among pools (e.g., materials, fuel,

biosphere, hydrosphere, and

atmosphere).

Definition of

"urbanization

" of urban

carbon

relevance

A process shaped by

growth

- in the proportion of

population living in cities

- of urban infrastructure,

i.e., paved streets, water

supply and sewerage

systems, electricity

A process resulting from

-shifts (transitions) in

population dynamics, or

-economy (from primary to

secondary and tertiary

sectors),

- Or increased social

complexity

A process that alters land cover and

ecosystems, and significantly

concentrates and disrupts “natural”

carbon flows and pools. This process

is dominated by anthropogenic

carbon fluxes

Romero-Lankao et al., 2014

What is the Urban Anthropocene? Patterns and Pathways to Sustainability

FTI

International Scientific Conference 7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France Session proposal: The Urban Anthropocene is now: transformative dynamics and solutions in urban systems Conveners :T. Elmqvist ; X. Bai Special Issue in Current Opinion In Environmental Sustainability (proposal in progress) www.commonfuture-paris2015.org

Future Earth Website: www.icsu.org/future-earth