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Dynamics of an Aging Population

Robert ScardamaliaRLS Demographics, Inc.Monday, January 9, 2012

High Foreign Immigration

Immigration Quotas

High Foreign Immigration – Baby Boom Echo – Improved Economy

Rural/Urban Migration

Baby Boom Growth Declining Fertility

Economic Downturn

Historical Demographic Factors

Slow Growth in New York

New York and Upstate Lag the Nation

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Index:1900 = 100

National and State Population Change

New York Will Lose Two More Congressional Seats

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Regional Differences in Population

Population Change 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Boomers Change Everything!

Growth of the Aging Population

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.

New York State, 1950 to 2030

Regional Differentials in Aging - Capital

Source: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.

County Differentials in Aging - Capital

Source: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.

Indicator of Aging – Natural Decline

Natural Decline – the difference between births and deaths

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Annual Population Estimates, Components of Change.

Differential Aging in Our Communities

Lowest Percentage:LeRay Town, Jefferson County – 2.7%

Highest Percentage:Dunkirk Town, Chautauqua County – 31.1%

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Differential Aging in Our Communities

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

Percentage of the Population 65 and Over, 2000

Differential Aging in Our Communities

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Facility locations derived from various sources.

Percentage of the Population 65 and Over, 2000

Location of Nursing Homes, Assisted Living and Aging

Health Care Facilities

Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata-

Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

The Financial Impact of Migration – All Ages

Capital Region Migrants – Net Gain: $148 million

Earnings Gain DueTo In-Migration

Earnings Loss DueTo Out-Migration

$682 Million

$534 Million

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

The Financial Impact of Migration – 55 and Over

Capital Region Migrants – Net Loss $60 million

Earnings Gain DueTo In-Migration

Earnings Loss DueTo Out-Migration

$21.3 Million

$81.3 Million

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

Aging – A Long-Term Perspective

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata

Robert ScardamaliaRLS Demographics, Inc.

P.O. Box 160Rensselaerville, NY 12147

bob@rlsdemographics.com518-703-0724

Thank You