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Dynamics of an Aging Population
Robert ScardamaliaRLS Demographics, Inc.Monday, January 9, 2012
High Foreign Immigration
Immigration Quotas
High Foreign Immigration – Baby Boom Echo – Improved Economy
Rural/Urban Migration
Baby Boom Growth Declining Fertility
Economic Downturn
Historical Demographic Factors
Slow Growth in New York
New York and Upstate Lag the Nation
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Index:1900 = 100
National and State Population Change
New York Will Lose Two More Congressional Seats
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Regional Differences in Population
Population Change 2000 to 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Boomers Change Everything!
Growth of the Aging Population
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census and Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.
New York State, 1950 to 2030
Regional Differentials in Aging - Capital
Source: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.
County Differentials in Aging - Capital
Source: Cornell University, Program on Applied Demographics, county population projections.
Indicator of Aging – Natural Decline
Natural Decline – the difference between births and deaths
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Annual Population Estimates, Components of Change.
Differential Aging in Our Communities
Lowest Percentage:LeRay Town, Jefferson County – 2.7%
Highest Percentage:Dunkirk Town, Chautauqua County – 31.1%
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Differential Aging in Our Communities
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Percentage of the Population 65 and Over, 2000
Differential Aging in Our Communities
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census. Facility locations derived from various sources.
Percentage of the Population 65 and Over, 2000
Location of Nursing Homes, Assisted Living and Aging
Health Care Facilities
Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata-
Characteristics of Capital Region Seniors
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
The Financial Impact of Migration – All Ages
Capital Region Migrants – Net Gain: $148 million
Earnings Gain DueTo In-Migration
Earnings Loss DueTo Out-Migration
$682 Million
$534 Million
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
The Financial Impact of Migration – 55 and Over
Capital Region Migrants – Net Loss $60 million
Earnings Gain DueTo In-Migration
Earnings Loss DueTo Out-Migration
$21.3 Million
$81.3 Million
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
Aging – A Long-Term Perspective
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2009 American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata
Robert ScardamaliaRLS Demographics, Inc.
P.O. Box 160Rensselaerville, NY 12147
Thank You