the impact of disasters on agriculture and food security...this report on the impact of disasters on...
Post on 24-Jun-2020
4 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
The impact of disasters on agriculture and food security
The impact of disasters on agriculture and food security
Photo credits:
Front cover: ©FAO/Pakistan
First page (from left to right, top to bottom): ©FAO/Ami Vitale, ©FAO/Sasha Guyetsky, ©FAO/Nepal, ©FAO/Nepal,
©FAO/Asim Hafeez
The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion
whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development
status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.
The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply
that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned.
The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views
or policies of FAO.
ISBN 978-92-5-108962-0
© FAO, 2015
FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated,
material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial
products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that
FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way.
All requests for translation and adaptation rights and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via
www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to copyright@fao.org.
FAO information products are available on the FAO website: www.fao.org/publications
and can be purchased through publications-sales@fao.org.
Art direction and design: Teikna Design
Printed and bound in Italy
ii iii
Foreword xi
Acknowledgements xiii
Acronyms xv
Executivesummary xvii
INTRODUCTIONBackground 2
Purpose,approachandmethodsofthestudy 4
CHAPTER IThe scope of disaster impact on agriculture 9
1.1 Globaltrendsindamageand lossestotheagriculturesector 10
1.2 Impactofdisasterson theagriculturesubsectors andnaturalresources 13
1.3 Widerandcumulative impactofdisasters 18
CHAPTER II
Quantifying production losses,changes in trade flows andsector growth after disastersover the past decade 27
2.1 Cropandlivestockproduction lossesafterdisastersover thepastdecade 29
2.2 Changesinagriculturaltrade flowsafterdisastersover thepastdecade 33
2.3 Changesinsectorgrowth associatedwithdisasters overthepastdecade 34
CHAPTER III
Drought in sub-Saharan Africa– an in-depth analysis of the impact on agriculture 37
3.1 Briefoverviewoftrendsin droughtandfoodinsecurityin sub-SaharanAfrica(1980–2014) 39
3.2 Damageandlosseson agricultureduetodrought 39
3.3 Widerimpactofdrought 40
3.4 Quantifyinglossesafterdroughtsinsub-SaharanAfrica (1991–2013) 45
CHAPTER IV
Core findings, conclusions andthe way forward 49
4.1 Summaryofcorefindings 50
4.2 Financialresourceflowstotheagriculturesectorandtodisasterriskreduction 51
4.3 Conclusions,recommendations andthewayforward 53
©FA
O/L
uca
Sola
Indevelopingcountriestheagriculturesectorabsorbsabout22percentofthetotaldamageandlossescausedbynaturalhazards
Indonesia,floodsdamage2102Loremipsumipsedixit
©FA
O/G
iulio
Nap
olita
no
Disastersjeopardizeagricultural
productionanddevelopmentand
oftenhavecascadingnegativeeffectsacrossnational
economies
Thenumberofclimate-induceddisastershasincreasedsignificantlyoverthelastdecade
Ofallnaturalhazards,floods,droughtsandtropicalstormsaffecttheagriculturesectormostshowingthesevereimpactofclimate-relateddisasters
Morethan80percentofthedamageandlossescausedbydroughtistoagriculture,especiallylivestockandcropproduction
Thefisheriessubsectorismostaffectedbytsunamisandstorms,whilemostoftheeconomicimpactonforestryiscausedbyfloodsandstorms
Thestudyaimstohelpfillthecurrentknowledgegaponthe
natureandmagnitudeofimpactsofdisasterstriggeredby
naturalhazardsontheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors
(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)indevelopingcountries.
Quantifyingthefullextentofsectordamageandlossesis
fundamentaltobetterunderstandpeople’svulnerabilitiesand
risksandinformappropriateriskreductionmeasuresand
investments.Thestudydemonstratesthatnaturalhazards
regularlyimpactheavilyonagricultureandhamperthe
eradicationofhungerandachievementof
sustainabledevelopment
xi
Foreword
Asthefrequencyandseverityofdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardshavecontinued
toriseoverthelastthreedecades,sotoohastheireconomiccost.Worldwide,inthe
decadefrom2003to2013,thesedisasterscostsomeUSD1.5trillionineconomic
damage.Inthelastfewyears,accordingtothe2015ReportoftheSecretary-Generalon
theImplementationoftheInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction,
“Economiclosses[fromnaturalhazard-induceddisasters]havereachedanaverage
ofUSD250billiontoUSD300billionayear”.
Yet,weknowcomparativelylittleaboutthefullimpactofsuchdisastersonagriculture
anditssubsectors(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry).Thisstudywasthus
undertakenbytheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)to
beginfillinginformationgapsaboutthenatureandmagnitudeofdisasterimpactson
theagriculturesectorindevelopingcountries.
Thestudyshowsthatataconservativeestimate,22percentofthedamageandlosses
causedbysuchdisastersindevelopingcountriesbetween2003and2013fellonthe
agriculturesector–risingto25percentwhenjustclimate-relateddisastersaretaken
intoaccount.
Inmanyofthecountriesmostvulnerabletonaturalhazard-induceddisasters,
agricultureisthemainsourceoflivelihoodsandfoodsecurity,andakeydriverof
economicgrowth.Ofallnaturalhazards,floods,droughtsandstormsaffectthe
agriculturesectorthemost,showingthesevereimpactofclimate-relateddisasters
onthesector.Thesedisastersthusundermineeffortstoeradicatehungerandfood
insecurity,andbuildsustainable,prosperousfutures.
Thisyearalone,small-scalefarmers,fishers,pastoralistsandforest-andtree-dependent
people–fromMyanmartoGuatemalaandfromVanuatutoMalawi–haveseentheir
livelihoodserodedorerasedbycyclones,droughts,floodsandearthquakes.
ForFAO,enhancingtheresilienceofagriculture-basedlivelihoodsinthefaceof
disastersisatthecoreofourcommitmenttotacklehunger,foodinsecurityand
extremepovertyworldwide.
In2015,theinternationalcommunityhascommittedtotwomajoragendasthat
recognizeresilienceasfundamentaltotheirachievement:theSustainableDevelopment
GoalsandtheSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015–2030,whilea
UniversalClimateChangeAgreementisexpectedbeforetheendoftheyear.
However,withoutaccurate,up-to-dateinformationondisasterimpactsatthesector
level,wecannoteffectivelymeasureourprogressinmeetingthetargetsset.
Sector-specificdataondamageandlossesarealsoessentialforeffectivepolicyand
practice.Nationalstrategiesfordisasterriskreductionandclimatechangeadaptation
thatsupportresiliencemustaddressthetypesofdisasterswiththegreatestimpact
ontheagriculturesector.Ultimately,thiswillcontributetonationaleffortstoachieve
sustainableagriculturaldevelopment,reducehungerandpoverty,andmeetthetargets
setunderrelevantinternationalcommitments.
Wehopethatthisstudywillignitenational,regionalandglobaleffortstodevelop
comprehensivedatacollectionandmonitoringsystems,therebyinformingeffective
policiesandactionstobuildresilientlivelihoodsandhelperadicatehunger,food
insecurityandmalnutrition.
JoséGrazianodaSilva
Director-General
xiii
Acknowledgements
Thisreportontheimpactofdisastersonagricultureandfoodsecurityistheoutcome
ofextensivecross-departmentalcollaborationwithintheframeworkoftheeffortsof
theFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)toenhancethe
resilienceofagriculture-basedlivelihoodstodisasters.
ProducedundertheoverallleadershipofDominiqueBurgeon,StrategicProgramme
Leader–Resilience,thestudyformsacriticalpartoftheOrganization’swork
underStrategicObjective5:“Increasetheresilienceoflivelihoodstothreatsand
crises”.Significanttechnicalinputsandadvicewereprovidedbyvariousdivisions
anddepartmentswithinFAO,includingtheTechnicalCooperationDepartment,
EconomicandSocialDevelopmentDepartment,AgricultureandConsumerProtection
Department,FisheriesandAquacultureDepartment,ForestryDepartmentandthe
Climate,EnergyandTenureDivision.Inaddition,FAOcountryofficesprovided
invaluablesupportingatheringnational-leveldatawhereavailable.
ThestudyandreportwerecoordinatedandsupervisedbyStephanBaas,with
MonicaTrujilloascoordinatingleadauthor.NiccolòLombardiwasacontributing
author.LuciaPalombiandTamaravan’tWoutcontributedtotheresearch,data
collectionandanalysisandthedraftingofcasestudies.
TechnicalguidanceonthestatisticalmethodsandanalysispresentedinChapterII
wasprovidedbyShukriAhmedandPieroConforti.
Centraltothedevelopmentofthereporthavebeenthesubstantialcontributions
ofFAOcolleagueswhoparticipatedinaniterativepeerreviewprocess,including:
ShukriAhmed,PhilippeAnkers,StephanBaas,VincentBriac,KafkasCaprazli,
MonaChaya,PieroConforti,AnneDeLannoy,JimHancock,EtienneJuvanonduVachat,
NinaKoeksalan,NeilMarsland,EmmanuellaOlesambu,FlorencePoulain,Claude
Raisaro,OscarRojas,LucaRusso,PieterVanLieropandSylvieWabbes-Candotti.
Editorial,graphicanddesignworkwascoordinatedbyAnneDeLannoy.
xv
Acronyms
DES Dietaryenergysupply
EM-DAT CRED InternationalDisasterDatabase–CentreforResearch
ontheEpidemiologyofDisasters
FAO FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations
GDP Grossdomesticproduct
GFDRR GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery
IFRC InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentSocieties
IMF InternationalMonetaryFund
IUCN InternationalUnionforConservationofNature
OECD OrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment
ODI OverseasDevelopmentInstitute
PDNA Post-disasterneedsassessment
SDG SustainableDevelopmentGoal
UNISDR UnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction
xvii
Executive Summary
Between2003and2013,disasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardscausedUSD1.5trillion
ineconomicdamage1worldwide.Indevelopingcountriesalone,thesedisasters
costaboutUSD550billioninestimateddamageandaffected2billionpeople2.Such
disastersoftenunderminenationaleconomicgrowthanddevelopmentgoals,aswell
asagriculturesectorgrowthandsustainablesectordevelopment.However,thereis
noclearunderstandingoftheeconomicimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector3.
Toprotectdevelopmentinvestmentsintheagriculturesectorandstrengthenthe
sector’sresiliencetodisasters,aclearunderstandingisneededoftheparticularway
thesectorisaffectedbydisasters.However,globallyavailablestatisticsondamageor
lossesdonotdisaggregatetheimpactonindividualsectors.Thisislargelybecause
thedataisnotcollectedandreportedinasystematicwaybysectoratthenationalor
subnationallevels.Thus,thefullimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorisnot
wellunderstood.Disastersdonotaffectallpeopleandsectorsinthesamewayorto
thesameextent,andthesedifferenceshaveimportantpolicyimplications.
Effectivepolicyandpracticerequiressector-specificdamageandlossdataforthe
agriculturesector.Nationalstrategiesondisasterriskreductionandclimatechange
adaptationthatsupportresilienceandsustainableagriculturaldevelopmentmust
addressthetypesofdisasterswiththegreatestimpactonthesector,suchasclimate-
relateddisasters.Governmentsmustdesignmeasuresspecifictothecrop,livestock,
fisheriesandforestrysubsectors,andbeenabledtoadoptmoresystematicstrategies
thatcounteracttheimpactofdisastersonsectorgrowthanddevelopmentandthus
nationalfoodsecurity.Ultimately,thiswillcontributetonationaleffortstoachieve
sustainableagriculturaldevelopment,reducehungerandpoverty,andmeetthe
targetssetunderrelevantinternationalcommitments.
TheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)carriedoutthe
presentstudytohelpfillexistingknowledgegapsaboutthenatureandmagnitudeof
disasterimpactstriggeredbynaturalhazardsontheagriculturesectorandsubsectors
(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)indevelopingcountries.Thestudyseeksto
providesystematizeddata,analysisandinformation,whileincreasingawareness
abouttheurgentneedtoenhancenationalandinternationalcommitmentandbudget
allocationstoriskreductionforthesector,includingimprovingdatacollectionand
monitoringsystemsonsector-specificdamageandlosses.
Theultimategoalistoinformtheimplementationandmonitoringofthethreekey
internationalagendasof2015,whichrecognizeresilienceasafundamentalingredient
fortheirachievement:theSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),specifically
Goal2;theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015–2030;andthe
UniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisexpectedundertheUnitedNations
FrameworkConventiononClimateChange.
1 BasedondatafromtheInternationalDisasterDatabase–CentreforResearchontheEpidemiologyofDisasters(EM-DATCRED).
2 Theterm“disaster”referstoallthosecausedbynaturalhazardsasreportedinEM-DATCRED,aswellasthedataondamageandpopulationsaffected.
3 Althoughthisstudyfocusesonlyondisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards,theimportanceofhuman-induceddisastersandtheirimpactonagricultureisrecognized.Disasterssuchasconflictsandenvironmentalcontamination,amongothers,canhavestrongrepercussionsfortheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors.
xviii xix
ThebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactontheagriculturesectorThestudybeginsbypresentingthebreadthandscopeoftheimpactofdisasters
triggeredbynaturalhazardsontheagriculturesector.Damageandlossestothe
agriculturesectorcausedby78disastersarepresentedbasedonneedsassessments
conductedindevelopingcountriesinAfrica,AsiaandthePacific,andLatinAmerica
andtheCaribbeanbetween2003and2013.
Thefindingsrevealthatdisasterscancauseconsiderabledamagetophysical
agriculturalassetssuchasstandingcrops,irrigationsystems,livestocksheltersand
veterinaryservices,aquacultureequipmentorhatcheries;post-productioninfrastructure
suchasfacilitiesforstorage,processing,marketingandtransport,buildingsand
equipmentoffarmschoolsandcooperatives;aswellassectorministriesandtheir
departments.Lossesarealsohigh–forexample,thedecline
inoutputfromcrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestryproduction–
withconsiderableeconomiclossestofarmersandoftenhavingadominoeffect
onthefoodvaluechain,agro-industries,importsandexportsandsectorgrowth.
The study found that in developing countries, the agriculture sector absorbs an average
of 22 percent of the total damage and losses caused by disasters triggered by natural
hazards.Theremainingdamageandlossesaretoothersectors,i.e.housing,health,
education,transportandcommunication,electricity,waterandsanitation,commerce,
industry,tourismandtheenvironment,amongothers.This rises to 25 percent when
considering just climate-related disasters, such as droughts, floods, hurricanes,
typhoons and cyclones4.
Therelationshipbetweendroughtandagricultureisparticularlyimportant,
as84percentofthedamageandlossescausedbydroughtsistotheagriculturesector,
whiletheremainingimpactistypicallyonsectorssuchashealthandnutrition,energy,
waterandsanitation,amongothers5.
Whenexaminingthewiderimpactofdisasters,thestudyshowsthatbeyondproduction
losses,medium- and large-scale disasters can have a significant impact across the food
value chain, with negative consequences on trade flows of agricultural commodities,
sector growth, food and non-food agro-industries, and ultimately national economies.
Forexample,cropproductionlossescausedbythe2010floodsinPakistandirectly
affectedcottonginning,riceprocessingandflourandsugarmilling,whilecottonand
riceimportssurged.Agricultureabsorbed50percentoftheUSD10billionintotal
damageandlosses,andsectorgrowthdroppedfrom3.5percentto0.2percentbetween
2009and2010,asdidnationalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)from2.8percentto1.6
percentbetweenthesameyears.
Atthesametime,disaster impact on agriculture has a direct effect on livelihoods
and food security.Disasterscancauseunemploymentand/oradeclineinwagesand
thereforeincomeamongfarmersandfarmlabourers.Theylowertheavailabilityof
foodcommoditiesinlocalmarkets,leadingtofoodinflation.Thesepressuresreduce
households’purchasingcapacity,restrictaccesstofood,depletesavingsandcanforce
thesaleofvitalproductiveassetsanderodelivelihoods.Ultimately,thequantityand
qualityoffoodconsumptionarereducedandfoodinsecurityandmalnutritionincrease,
particularlyamongthemostvulnerablehouseholds.Forinstance,the2010floodsin
Pakistanaffected4.5millionworkers,two-thirdsofwhomwereemployedinagriculture,
andover70percentoffarmerslostmorethanhalfoftheirexpectedincome.
4 Inthisstudy,climate-relateddisastersincludedrought,floodsandstormssuchashurricanes,typhoonsandcyclones.
5 Thefindingsondroughtarebasedonthreeneedsassessmentsavailableondroughtbetween2003and2013(outofthe78assessmentsreviewed),whichassessedtheimpactofdroughtinDjibouti,KenyaandUganda.(SeeChaptersIandIII.)
When considering just climate
related disasters the agriculture
sector absorbs 25% of the total
damage and losses
Over time, damage and losses to the agriculture sector accumulate as a result of
recurring disasters, adding up in their sector economic impact and constraining
agricultural growth and development.Forexample,thePhilippineswasaffected
by75disastersbetween2006and2013,primarilyfloodsandtyphoons/tropical
storms,causingUSD3.8billionindamageandlossestothesectorovereightyears.
ThistranslatesintoanaverageofUSD477millionineconomiclossestotheagriculture
sectoreveryyear,equivalenttoaboutone-quarterofthetotalannualnationalbudget
allocatedtothesectorin20146.
Analysisoftenyearsofdataonproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandagriculturesectorgrowthAstatisticalanalysisusingFAOagriculturaldatabaseshelpedtoquantifycropand
livestockproductionlosses,aswellaschangesintradeflowsandtheperformance
ofagriculturevalueaddedassociatedwith140medium-andlarge-scaledisasters
(affectingatleast250000people)thatoccurredin67developingcountries
between2003and20137.
Theassessmentfoundthatapproximately USD 80 billion was lost as a result of
declines in crop and livestock production after these disasters.
Thiscorrespondsto333milliontonnesofcereals,pulses,meat,milkandother
commodities.These losses are equivalent to, on average, 7 percent of national per
capita dietary energy supply (DES) after each disaster8.Thisisalreadysignificantat
thenationallevel,butislikelyhigheratsubnationallevel,wherelossesincaloriesmay
increasehouseholdfoodinsecurityunlessrelevantmeasuresaretakentocompensate
andfillthegapinDES.
Thesefindingsareconsideredconservativeastheanalysisfocusedonmedium-
andlarge-scaledisasters,andonselectedagriculturalcommodities.Includingthe
thousandsofso-called“silentdisasters”thatmainlyhitagriculture,aswellas
othersmall-scaledisastersandadditionalcrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,
andforestrycommoditieswouldlikelyincreasethereportedproductionlosses.
The disasters analysed were closely correlated with rises in food imports and drops in
food exports.Increasesinimportsamounted9,inrelativeterms,to28percentoftheir
projectedvalue,whiledecreasesinexportsrepresentedabout6percentoftheprojected
valueofexports.Higherimportexpendituresandlowerexportrevenuescannegatively
affectthenationalbalanceofpayment.
Theanalysisalsorevealedsignificantnegativetrendsinagriculturevalue-addedgrowth
for55percentofthedisastersconsidered10.After each disaster there is an average loss
of 2.6 percent of national agricultural value-added growth11 in the countries affected,
with a much more significant impact likely at subnational levels.
6 ThePhilippine’s2014budgetfortheagriculturesectorwasapproximatelyUSD1.8billion.7 Medium-andlarge-scaledisasterswereselectedfortheanalysis,definedasthoseaffecting250000people
ormore,asthesearelikelytohaveanimpactonagriculturalproductionatthenationallevelandcanbeanalysedusingnationalstatistics.
8 SeeAnnex5fordetailsonthemethodology.9 Thedataontradeflowsisbasedontheanalysisofmedium-andlarge-scaledisastersthatoccurredbetween
2003and2011indevelopingcountries.10 Negativeperformanceisintendedasavalueofagriculturevalue-addedgrowthratelowerthanthe
2003–2013lineartrendvalueintheyearofdisaster.11 Agriculturevalueaddedisthenetoutputoftheagriculturesectorandsubsectorsafteraddingalloutputs
andsubtractingintermediateinputs.Agriculturevalue-addedgrowthistheannualpercentagechangeofagriculturevalueadded.
The study shows that
between 2003–2013, nearly
USD 80 billion was lost
as a result of declines in crop
and livestock production
after medium- to
large-scale disasters in
developing countries
xx xxi
Theimpactofdroughtonagricultureinsub-SaharanAfricaAnin-depthanalysiswasconductedondroughtsinsub-SaharanAfricasince1980to
betterunderstandtrendsandmagnitudeofdroughtimpactandspecificconsequences
intheregion.Thisextensiveanalysiswasprioritizedowingtothehighandincreasing
frequencyofdroughtsintheregionasaresultofclimatechange,andtheimportance
oftheagriculturesectortoeconomicgrowthandfoodsecurityintheregion.Agriculture
contributes,onaverage,to25percentofGDPinsub-SaharanAfrica,risingto50percent
whentheagribusinesssectorisincluded.Inaddition,over60percentofthepopulation
livesinruralareasandthesectoremploysabout60percentoftheworkforce12.
Between1980and2014,over363millionpeopleinsub-SaharanAfricawereaffected
bydroughts.When considered by subregion, the results show that droughts affect
more people in eastern Africa with 203 million people affected,followedbysouthern
Africawith86millionandwesternAfricawith74million.EthiopiaandKenyatogether
accountedfor30percentofthetotalnumberofpeopleaffected,withnearly61million
and48million,respectively(seeAnnex4).
The study found that sub-Saharan African countries suffered about USD 31 billion in
crop and livestock production losses after the droughts that occurred between 1991 and
2013, with the highest losses – USD 19 billion – experienced in eastern Africa.
In southern Africa, losses amounted to over USD 10 billion and USD 2.5 billion
in western Africa13.
Afterthedroughtsthatoccurredbetween1991and2011intheregion,foodimports
increasedbyUSD6billionandexportsofthesamecommoditiesfellbynearly
USD2billion14.Sub-Saharan African countries lost an average of 3.5 percent of
agriculture value-added growth after each drought–afigurethatislikelytobemore
acuteatthesubnationallevel.
The impact of drought on agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa often has a major cascading
effect on national economies.Forexample,inKenyabetween2008and2011drought
causedcropproductionlossesaswellaslossesinthefoodprocessingindustry,
particularlygrainmillingandcoffeeandteaprocessing.Duringthesamefour-year
period,theagriculturesectorexperienceddamageandlossesofalmostUSD11billion
andsectorgrowthfellto-5percentin2008and-2.3percentin2009.
NeedtoimproveinformationsystemsondisasterimpactfortheagriculturesectorInordertodesignwell-informedriskreductionstrategiesandinvestmentswithinthe
agriculturesector,severalchallengesmustbeaddressedtoimprovetheinformation
systemsandstatisticsavailableontheimpactofdisastersonthesector.Thisrequires:
Ú Addressingandovercomingthesignificantdatagapsattheglobal,regional,
nationalandsubnationallevelsinordertogainafullunderstandingofthe
magnitudeanddiversityofdisasterimpactonagriculture,itssubsectorsand
relatednaturalresourcesandecosystemservices,andtobetterinformresilient
andsustainablesectoraldevelopmentplanning,implementationandfunding.
12 Deutsche Bank,2014,Agriculturalvaluechainsinsub-SaharanAfrica–Fromadevelopmentchallengetoabusinessopportunity.
13 CentralAfricaisnotincludedasnocountryinthesubregionexperienceddroughtsaffectingmorethan250000peoplebetween1991and2013.
14 Thefindingsreflectdroughtsthattookplacebetween1991and2011,asdatawasunavailableformorerecentyears.Commoditiesincludedintheanalysiswerecereals,pulses,milkandmeat.
Ú Improvingglobalandregionaldatabasesandinformationsystemsbasedon
nationaldata.Themethodologyforassessingimpactshouldbeimprovedto
bettercapturethefullextentofdisasterimpactonagriculture,itssubsectors,
thefoodvaluechain,foodsecurity,theenvironmentandnaturalresources
associatedwiththesector,andnationaleconomies.Thisprecisioniscritical
forformulatingwell-tailoredpoliciesandinvestmentsinthesector.
Ú Betterrecordingandstandardizingdatacollectionandestablishingregular
monitoringandreportingatthecountrylevel,includingatthesubnationallevel.
Thisalsorequiresadvisingonandstrengtheningthecapacitytodoso,whichis
criticalfordisasterriskmanagementandagriculturesectorriskmanagement.
Ú Systematicallyusingdamageandlossinformationattheglobalandnational
levelstomonitorandmeasureprogresstowardstheresiliencegoalsandtargets
oftheSDGs,theSendaiFrameworkandtheexpectedUniversalClimateChange
Agreement.
InordertomeetthesechallengesandaspartoftheOrganization’scommitmentto
resilienceandthethreeglobalagendas,FAOwillsupporteffortstoimprovemonitoring
andreportingofdisasterimpactontheagriculturesectorbyassistingMemberNations
tocollectandreportrelevantdata.FAOwillalsoimprovethemethodologyapplied
tomeasuring,atthegloballevel,theimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector;for
example,byenhancingstatisticalanalysisandincreasingthenumberofcountries,
disastersandcommoditiesanalysed.
RecommendationstostrengthentheresilienceoftheagriculturesectorInordertoreducetheimpactofdisastersonagriculture,especiallyinviewofclimate
changeandtheincreasingfrequencyandmagnitudeofclimate-relateddisasters,itis
necessarytoensurethat:
Ú Disasterriskreductionforresiliencebuildingbecomesanessentialcomponent
ofallhumanitariananddevelopmentfundingfortheagriculturesector15,aswell
asapriorityforgovernmentandprivatesectorinvestmentinagriculture.This
isparticularlyimportantincountrieswheredisasterscauseheavylossestothe
sectorandnationaleconomies.
Ú Disasterriskreductionandmanagement(abackboneofresilience)is
systematicallyembeddedintoagriculturesectordevelopmentplansand
investments,particularlyindisaster-pronecountrieswhereagricultureisan
importantsourceoflivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition,aswellasakey
driverofeconomicgrowth.
Ú Humanitarianaidtoagriculturemoreconsistentlyreflectstheimpactof
disastersonthesector.Disasterriskreductionandmanagementstrategies
shouldbeintegratedintopost-disasterrecoveryeffortsintheagriculturesector
toensurethatinvestmentsmadeindisasterresponseandrecoveryalsobuild
resiliencetofutureshocks.
Ú Nationalgovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunityestablishtargetsfor
financingdisasterriskreductionintheagriculturesectorinordertopreventand
mitigatethesignificantimpactofdisasters.
15 OverseasDevelopmentInstitute.2014.Daretoprepare:takingriskseriously.Financingemergencypreparedness;fromfightingcrisistomanagingrisk.
xxii 1
Introduction
Thehighdamageandlossescausedbydisastersunderminenationalinvestmentsandmaketheeradicationofhungermoredifficulttoachieve
One-quarter of the damage and losses caused by climate-related
disasters is on agriculture and its sub-sectors.
The high damage and losses caused by disasters undermine national investments
and make the eradication of hunger more difficult to achieve
Sub-SaharanAfrica,Drought2o09Loremipsumipsedixit
Introduction
Dataondisasterdamageandlossesintheagriculture
sectorarenotsystematicallycollectedorreported
Economic losses have reached an average of USD 250 billion to USD 300 billion a year, severely affecting stable economic growth in low- and middle-income countries and eroding development gains in vulnerable communities. Source: 2015 Report of the Secretary-General on the Implementation of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction
The study reviewed 78 post-disaster needs assessments of disaster events in 48 countries, and
conducted a statistical analysis of 140 medium- and large-scale disasters in 67 countries
©FA
O/S
asha
Guy
etsk
y
Philippines,TyphoonHaiyan,2013fisheriesinfrastructuredamage
Worldwide, the average annual number of disasters that occurred between 2003 and 2013 was twice the average annual number of disasters that occurred in the 1980s
3
Background
Between 2003 and 2013, disasters caused by natural hazards caused USD 1.5 trillion
in damages worldwide (Figure 1).Indevelopingcountriesalone,estimateddamages
fromthesedisastersamountedtoaboutUSD550billionandaffected2billionpeople16.
Suchdisastersunderminenationaleconomicgrowthanddevelopmentgoals,aswell
asthegrowthandsustainabledevelopmentoftheagriculturesector.Despitethis,there
isasofyetnoclearunderstandingoftheextentandnatureoftheeconomicimpactof
disastersontheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors.Thisstudythusseekstofillthis
criticalinformationgap17.
Over the last three decades, there has been a rising trend in the occurrence of disasters
worldwide and related economic damage (Figure 2). Thisisparticularlynoteworthy
inrelationtoclimatologicaleventssuchasdroughts,hydrologicaleventslikefloods
andmeteorologicaleventssuchasstorms.
16 Theterm“disaster”referstoallthosecausedbynaturalhazardsasreportedinEM-DATCRED,aswellasthedataondamages.Theeconomicdamagesreportedinthisdatabaseareconsideredanunderestimategiventhatsuchinformationisonlyavailablefor36percentofdisastersreported.
17 Althoughthisstudyfocusesonlyondisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards,theimportanceofhuman-induceddisastersandtheirimpactonagricultureisrecognized.Disasterssuchasconflictsandenvironmentalcontamination,amongothers,mayhavestrongrepercussionsontheagriculturesector.
The increase in weather-related events is of significant concern to the agriculture sector
given the sector’s dependence on climate.Aswillbedemonstratedthroughoutthis
report,thesetypesofhazardsposethegreatestthreattothesector.Theurgentneed
tostrengthentheresilienceoffoodsystemsiscleargiventheincreasingfrequencyand
severityofclimate-relateddisasters,coupledwiththerisingdemandforfoodlinkedto
populationgrowth.Thisisparticularlycrucialincountrieswheredisastersarefrequent
andwheretheagriculturesectorcontributessignificantlytoemployment,poverty
reductionandfoodsecurity,aswellasbeingakeydriverofnationaleconomicgrowth.
Aclearunderstandingoftheparticularwayinwhichtheagriculturesectorisaffected
bydisastersiscrucialtoprotectdevelopmentinvestmentsandstrengthenthesector’s
resiliencetodisasters.Yet,theeconomicimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector
isnotknownattheglobalorregionallevels.Globally available statistics on damage or
losses do not disaggregate the impact on individual sectors.
Thisislargelybecausetheimpactofdisastersisnotcollectedandreportedina
systematicwaybysectoratthenationalorsubnationallevels.Intheaftermathof
disasters,manycountriesconductneedsassessmentsinvolvingsectoralministriesin
ordertoinformthehumanitarianresponse.Insomecases,assessmentsareconducted
asajointeffortbetweengovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunity,forexample
post-disasterneedsassessments(PDNAs).Suchassessmentsevaluatetheimpactof
disastersacrossallrelevantsectors;however,theassessmentresultsanddatacollected
arenotsystematicallyincludedinnationaldisasterlossdatabases.
Needsassessmentsdonotshareacommonmethodforassessingtheimpactof
disasters.Someuselivelihoodorfoodeconomyapproachestoassesstheimpactof
adisasterontheagriculturesector,whileothersassesstheeconomicimpactorfocus
onthephysicaldamagetocropsandlivestock.Thevaryingformsofanalysisapplied
produceadifferentperspectiveofthedisasterimpactonthesector.Theendresultis
thatthefullconsequencesofdisastersontheagriculturesectorarenotwellunderstood
attheglobal,regional,nationalorsubnationallevels.
ClimatologicalHydrologicalMeteorologicalGeophysical
Total cost (USD million)Legend
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
200
920
08
200
720
06
200
520
04
200
320
02
200
120
00
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
Figure 1. The impact of disasters between 2003 and 2013
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Damage (USDbillion)
$
ä
People killed
Totalpeoplekilled
1,159,925
93,115
29,893
22,422
242,189
16,016
329,99834,143
11,526
22,225
ä
Totaldamage
$1.535 trillion
70136
21434
74
19046
132
364156119
People affected(million)
161
126
161
126
213
223
202
260
213
111
97
ä
Totalpeople affected
2.023 billion
113,518
244,880
â95% ofpeople affectedby climate-related disasters
â5%affectedby otherdisasters
â90%ofdamage wascausedby floodsandstorms
â10% byother disasters
Source:EM-DATCRED
Figure 2. Number of disasters triggered by natural hazards worldwide, 1980–2014
Source:EM-DATCRED
4 5
Disastersdonotaffectallpeopleandsectorsinthesameway,ortothesameextent,
andthesedifferenceshaveimportantpolicyimplications.Forexample,asthisstudy
illustrates,specifictypesofhazardscausemoreagriculturallossesthanothers,
theagriculturesubsectorsareaffecteddifferentlybydisasters,andthenatureof
disasterimpactonthesectordiffersbyregionandcountry.Itisthereforenecessaryto
understandthebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactonagricultureandlivelihoods,
suchastheextenttowhichdisastersincreasetheleveloffoodinsecurityorarrest
sectoreconomicgrowth.
Effectivepolicyandpracticerequiressector-specificdamageandlossdataforthe
agriculturesector.Nationalstrategiesfordisasterriskreductionandclimatechange
adaptationthatsupportresilienceandsustainableagriculturaldevelopmentmustbe
informedbytheparticularnatureofdisasterimpactonthesector,addressinghazards
thatcausethegreatestlossessuchasclimate-relateddisasters;designingmeasures
specifictothecrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestrysubsectors;and
adoptingmoresystemicstrategiesthatcounteracttheimpactofdisastersonsector
growthanddevelopmentandonnationalfoodsecurity.Ultimately,thiswillsupport
governmenteffortstoachievesustainableagriculturaldevelopment,reducehunger
andpovertyandmeettheirtargetsunderrelevantinternationalcommitments.
Purpose, approach and methods of the study
SpecificobjectiveandpurposeofthestudyTheFoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations(FAO)undertookthis
studywiththespecificobjectiveofhelpingtofilltheexistingknowledgegapabout
thenatureandmagnitudeoftheimpactsofdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards
ontheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)
indevelopingcountries.Throughthestudy,FAOseekstoprovidesystematized
data,analysisandinformation,aswellasincreaseawarenessabouttheurgentneed
toenhancenationalandinternationalcommitmentandbudgetallocationstorisk
reductionforthesector,includingimprovingdatacollectionandmonitoringsystems
fordamageandlossestoagriculture.
Theultimategoalofthestudyistoinformtheimplementationandmonitoringofthe
threemaininternationalagendastobeadoptedin2015,whichrecognizeresilience
asfundamentaltotheirachievement:(i)theSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),
specificallyGoal2;(ii)theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction2015–2030;
and(iii)theUniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisexpectedundertheUnited
NationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange,includingtheWarsawInternational
MechanismforLossandDamageassociatedwithClimateChangeImpacts
(LossandDamageMechanism).
Disasters do not affect
all people and sectors
in the same way
or to the same extent
Ultimately, the study should
inform the implementation
and monitoring of the three
main international agendas
to be adopted in 2015,
which recognize resilience
as fundamental to their
achievement
ConceptsusedtodefinetheimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorForthepurposeofthisstudy,theimpactofdisastersonagricultureisconsidered
inaholisticmannertocapturedamageandlossestothesector,theresultingwider
economicimpact,andtheeffectonlivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition.
Damage and losses:
“Damage”referstothetotalorpartialdestructionofphysicalassetsandinfrastructure
indisaster-affectedareas,expressedasreplacementorrepaircosts.Intheagriculture
sector,damageisconsideredinrelationtostandingcrops,irrigationsystems,livestock
sheltersandveterinaryservices,aquacultureequipmentorhatcheries,farmequipment
andmachinery,andpost-productioninfrastructuresuchasstorage,processing,
marketingandtransportfacilities,amongothers.
“Losses”refertothechangesineconomicflowsarisingfromthedisaster.In
agriculture,lossesmayinclude,amongothers,thedeclineinoutputincrop,livestock,
fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestryproduction;increasedcostsoffarminputssuch
asfertilizers,seeds,livestockfeed,veterinarycareandotherinputs;lowerrevenuesand
higheroperationalcostsintheprovisionofservices;andtheunexpectedexpenditures
tomeethumanitarianandrecoveryneedsinthesector18.
The wider impact on economy, food security and nutrition:Thestudyalsoconsiders
lossesacrossthefoodvaluechain,andtheconsequentimpactonagriculturevalue
addedorsectorgrowthontradeflowsandonnationaleconomicgrowth.Thewider
impactconsiderslossesinfoodandnon-foodagro-industriesthatresultfrom
agriculturalproductionlosses.Inaddition,theresultingwiderimpactsonrural
andagriculture-basedlivelihoodsandfoodsecurityareconsidered.Forexample,
employmentandincomelossesamongfarmlabourers,reducedfoodsupply,restricted
accesstofood,reducedquantityandqualityoffoodconsumed,andincreasesin
malnutritionamongaffectedpopulations.
Key terminology specific to this report
The agriculture sector:thisincludesthecrop,livestock,fisheriesandforestry
subsectors,andissointendedwhenusedthroughoutthereportunless
otherwisespecified.
Disasters:theanalysisundertakenandpresentedthroughoutthisreportfocused
ondisasterscausedbynaturalhazards,i.e.droughts,floods,hurricanes,typhoons,
cyclones,earthquakes,tsunamisandvolcaniceruptions.Therefore,theterm
“disasters”inthisreportreferstothesetypesofhazards,unlessindicatedotherwise.
Climate-related disasters:inthisreport,thesereferspecificallytodroughts,floods,
hurricanes,typhoonsandcyclones.
Resilience:thisisunderstoodastheabilitytopreventdisastersandcrises,andto
anticipate,absorb,accommodateorrecoverfromtheminatimely,efficientand
sustainablemanner.Thisincludesprotecting,restoringandimprovingfoodand
agriculturalsystemsunderthreatsthatimpactfoodsecurityandnutrition,
agriculture,and/orfoodsafetyandpublichealth.
18 Forthemostpart,thisreportappliesthedefinitionofdamageandlossesusedinthemethodologyoftwoneedsassessmentguidelines:(i)UnitedNations,GlobalFacilityforDisasterReductionandRecovery(GFDRR)andEuropeanCommission.2013.Post-DisasterNeedsAssessmentsVolumeAandBGuidelines;and(ii)GFDRR.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment:GuidanceNotesVolume1.
INTRODUCTION
6 7
ApproachandmethodsusedinthestudyGiventhelackofgloballyavailabledataontheeconomicimpactofdisastersonthe
agriculturesectorindevelopingcountries,thestudycombinedseveralmethodstofill
theinformationgap.Inparticular,thestudysoughttoshedsomelightonthenature
andcharacteristicsofdisasterimpactonagricultureanditssubsectors,quantify
losses,holisticallyassessthebroaderimpactonthesectorandreportatawiderscale,
coveringdevelopingcountries.Thefollowingisabriefoverviewoftheapproachand
methodologyused.
Review and analysis of damage and losses to the agriculture sector caused by disasters
over the past decade in developing countries:Theanalysisisbasedonasampleof
78needsassessmentsundertakenintheaftermathofdisasters19thatoccurredbetween
2003and2013in48countriesinAfrica,AsiaandthePacific,andLatinAmericaand
theCaribbean.(ThelistofcountriesanddisastersanalysedisprovidedinAnnex3.)
Thesampleincludessmall-,medium-andlarge-scaledisasters20,coveringdifferent
typesofnaturalhazardsacrossalldevelopingregions.Assuch,itisarepresentative
samplethatprovidesanevidence-basedanalysisofglobaltrends.Thismethodmade
itpossibletoidentifythecombineddamageandlossesthataffectthesector,theshare
ofdamageandlossestoagriculturecomparedwithotheraffectedsectors,thetypes
ofhazardsthathavehadthemostsignificanteconomicimpactonagricultureandthe
differencesinthisimpactacrosstheagriculturesubsectors.
Statistical analysis to quantify crop and livestock production losses observed after the
occurrence of disasters over the past decade, as well as changes in trade flows and
agriculture value-added growth:Thiswasdonetofillinformationgapsinstatistics
currentlyavailableatthegloballevel.Thestatisticalanalysiscovers140disasters
thataffected250000peopleormoreandthattookplacebetween2003and2013in
Asia,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,theNearEastandsub-SaharanAfrica.(The
listofcountriesanalysedisprovidedinAnnex2.)Theanalysisusednationaland
internationalstatisticsondisasters,production,importsandexports(tradeflows),and
agriculturevalue-addedgrowth,basedondatainFAOSTATandtheWorldBankWorld
DevelopmentIndicators.Thefindingsrepresentafirstefforttoprovideapproximate
figuresonsomeofthekeylossesassociatedwithdisastersintheagriculturesector.
Theanalysisprioritizeddevelopingcountriesandfocusedonaselectednumberof
agriculturalcommodities.(Amoredetaileddescriptionofthemethodologyusedis
providedinAnnex5.)
In-depth review and analysis of specific disaster events, including drought in
sub-Saharan Africa, based on a comprehensive set of data and information sources,
to develop case material and present a holistic picture of disaster impact on the
agriculture sector:Theanalysisofdetaileddatafrommanysourcesmadeitpossible
todevelopcasestudiesthatdemonstratethewideimpactthatdisastershaveonthe
sector,includingtheimpactofproductionlossesacrossthevaluechain,onsector
value-addedgrowth,importsandexports,balanceofpaymentsandoverallnational
economies,aswellasonfoodsecurityandnutrition.
19 TheneedsassessmentsreviewedincludebothPDNAsanddamageandlossassessments,aswellasothersthatmayusedifferenttitlesornames.
20 Ofthe78disastersreviewed,41affectedmorethan250000people,while15affectedbetween50000and250000people,and22affectedlessthan50000people.
The study covers 15 small
island developing states
including
11 in the Caribbean,
2 in Africa and
2 in Asia and the Pacific
Study outline
Thefindingsofthestudyarepresentedinfoursections,asoutlinedbelow.
Chapter I:Thescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture
Thischapterpresentsthebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactontheagriculture
sector.Inparticular,thechapterfocuseson(i)keyglobaltrendsrelatedtodamageand
lossestotheagriculturesector,basedonasampleof78disastereventsthatoccurred
overthepastdecade(2003–2013)indevelopingcountries;(ii)ananalysisofdisaster
impactontheagriculturalsubsectors(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)and
naturalresources;and(iii)ananalysisofthewiderimpactofdisasters,forexample
acrosstheagriculturevaluechain,onagro-industries,nationaleconomiesand
livelihoods,basedonstatisticalanalysesandin-depthcasestudies.Thechapter
alsoillustratesthecumulativedamagesandlossescausedbyrecurringdisasters
inspecificcountries.
Chapter II: Quantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsand
sectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade
Thischapterfocusesonaquantitativemeasurementofthelossesassociatedwith140
disastersthatoccurredoverthepastdecadeindevelopingcountriesbasedonFAO’s
statisticalanalysis.Thefindingsoftheanalysispresentedinclude:(i)quantificationof
themonetaryvalueofcropandlivestockproductionlosses;
(ii)observedchangesinagriculturalimportsandexports;and(iii)trendsinthe
performanceofagriculturevalue-addedgrowth.Theresultsarepresentedforall
developingregionsandcomparedacrossregionsandbytypeofhazard.
Chapter III:Droughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpact
onagriculture
Giventhesevereimpactofdroughtonagriculture,thischapterisdedicatedtoan
in-depthanalysisofhowdroughtshaveaffectedsub-SaharanAfricafrom1980to2013.
Theanalysislooksatdroughttrendsintermsoftheirgeo-spatialandtemporal
distributionbysubregionanddecade,quantifyingthecropandlivestockproduction
lossesassociatedwithdroughtsandillustratingthewiderimpactofdroughtson
thefoodvaluechain,tradeflows,agriculturesectorgrowth,nationalGDPandother
nationaleconomicindicators,aswellasonfoodsecurityandnutrition.
Chapter IV:Corefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward
Thefinalchapterpresentsthecorefindingsandmainconclusions,includingthe
implicationsofthestudy’sfindingsfordisasterriskreductionandmanagementaswell
asdevelopmentplanninginagriculture.Thechapteralsoprovidesrecommendations
tosupportglobal,regionalandnationaleffortstostrengthentheresilienceofthe
agriculturesectorandlivelihoods.
INTRODUCTION
8 9
Indirect losses experienced by the agriculture sector in the seasons after a disaster are twice as high as the direct damage to agricultural assets
Twenty-five percent of the economic impact caused by climate-related disasters falls on the agriculture sector
Chapter I
Thescopeofdisasterimpact
onagriculture
Almost three-quarters of recorded post-disaster damage and losses to agriculture were to the crops and livestock subsectors
Theimpactofdifferenttypesofhazardson
agriculturesubsectorsvariessubstantially,
whichrequirescontext-specificdisaster
riskreductionandmanagement
©FA
O/A
sim
Haf
eez
Pakistan,2010floodsDestructionofirrigationandfeederroads
10 11
Thischapterpresentsthebreadthandscopeofdisasterimpactontheagriculture
sector.Keyglobaltrendsfordamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorarepresented,
followedbyadiscussionofthenatureofdisasterimpactonagriculturesubsectors
(crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry)andnaturalresources,withtrendsindamage
andlossesforeach.Thewiderimpactofdisastersisthenpresentedacrossthevalue
chain,onagro-industries,nationaleconomies,livelihoodsandfoodsecurity,aswellas
thecumulativedamageandlossescausedbyrecurringdisasters.
Global trends in damage and losses to the agriculture sector
OveralldamageandlossestoagricultureFAOanalysedthedamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorcausedby78disaster
eventsthatoccurredbetween2003and2013indevelopingcountriesinAfrica,Asiaand
thePacific,andLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean.Theseincludedsmall-,medium-and
large-scaledisasters,13ofwhichoccurredinAfrica,27inAsiaandthePacific,37in
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,andoneinEasternEurope.
(SeeAnnex3forafulllistofthecountriesanddisastersanalysed.)
Thedataanalysedisbasedoninformationreportedinneedsassessments,whichare
typicallyundertakenintheimmediateaftermathofdisastersasacollaborativeeffort
betweengovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunitytoassesstheimpactofa
disasteronallmajoraffectedsectors 21.Thestudycalculatedthedamageandlossesto
theagriculturesectorasreportedintheseneedsassessments22.Intheassessments,
damagereferstothetotalorpartialdestructionofphysicalassetsandinfrastructure
intheaffectedareasintermsoftheirmonetaryvalueexpressedasreplacementcosts.
Lossesrefertothechangesineconomicflowsarisingfromthedisasterandthat
continueuntileconomicrecoveryisachieved23.
Together,the78disasterscostUSD30billionindamageandlossestoagricultureand
itssubsectors,outofatotalofUSD140billionincombineddamageandlossesacross
allsectors.Theattachedmapshowsthetendisasterscausingthegreatestdamageand
lossestotheagriculturesectoroutofthe78reviewedbetween2003and2013.
Disastershaveanimpactacrossarangeofsectorsdependingontheirmagnitude,
geographiclocationandothercharacteristics.Thereviewedneedsassessmentstypically
evaluatedthedamageandlossestoproductivesectorssuchasagriculture,livelihoods,
commerceandindustry,commerceandtrade,andtourism;tosocialsectorssuchas
housing,education,health,cultureandnutrition;andtoinfrastructuresuchaswater
andsanitation,energyandelectricity,transportandtelecommunications24.
Thedamageandlossescalculatedfortheagriculturesectorwereanalysedinrelationto
thedamageandlossestoallsectorscombined,expressedintermsofthepercentage
shareofthetotal.Thefindingsindicatethatintermsofdirectphysicaldamagealone,
roughly14percentwastotheagriculturesectorwhiletheremainingdamagewasto
othersectors.
21 TheneedsassessmentsreviewedincludebothPDNAsanddamageandlossassessments,aswellasothersthatmayusedifferenttitlesornames.
22 Thedamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorreportedinthischapterincludetheimpactoncrops,livestock,fisheries,forestry,irrigationandotherareassuchassectorinfrastructure,whicharecalculatedunderdifferent‘sectors’withintheneedsassessmentsreviewed.
23 Forfurtherinformationonthemethodologyusedtoassessdamageandlosses,referto:(i)EuropeanCommission,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2013.PDNAsVolumeAandBGuidelinesand(ii)GFDRR.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment:GuidanceNotesVolume1.
24 ForfurtherinformationonsectoralclassificationsseeEuropeanCommission,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2013.PDNA:VolumeAGuidelines;andWorldBank.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessmentGuidanceNotes.
1.1
Together, the 78 disasters
cost USD 30 billion in
damage and losses to the
agriculture sector
Thisdirectdamagetoagriculturetypicallyincludesthepartialortotaldestructionof
vitalagriculturalinfrastructureandassets,includingstandingcrops;farmtoolsand
equipment;irrigationsystems;livestocksheltersandveterinaryservices;fishingboats
andequipment;landingsites;aquacultureequipmentandhatcheries;post-production
infrastructuresuchasstorage,processing,marketingandtransportfacilities;buildings
andequipmentoffarmschoolsandcooperatives,andsectorministriesandtheir
departments,amongothers.
Ofalltheindirectlossesthesedisasterscaused,nearly30percentwastothe
agriculturesectoralone.Inotherwords,thegreatesteconomicimpactofdisastersto
theagriculturesectorstemsfromlosses,whilethephysicaldamageiscomparatively
smallergiventherelativelylowermonetaryvalueofagriculturalassetswhencompared
withinfrastructuresuchashousingorroads.Thelossestotheagriculturesectormay
includeadeclineinoutputincrop,livestock,fisheriesandaquaculture,andforestry
production;increasedcostofproductionfromhigheroutlaysonfarminputssuchas
fertilizers,seeds,livestockfeedandveterinarycare,amongothers;lowerrevenuesand
higheroperationalcostsintheprovisionofservices;andunexpectedexpendituresto
meethumanitarianandrecoveryneedsinthesector.
Whendamageandlossesarecombined,the agriculture sector absorbs an average of
22percent of the total impact of natural hazards – a figure much higher than previously
reported25.Theremainingdamageandlossesaretoothersectorssuchashousing,
health,education,transportandcommunication,electricity,waterandsanitation,
commerce,industry,tourism,andtheenvironment,amongothers.
Whenconsideringonlyclimate-relateddisasters–suchasfloods,droughts,hurricanes,
typhoonsandcyclones(excludinggeologicalhazardssuchasearthquakes,tsunamis
andvolcaniceruptions)–thepercentageshareofthetotaldamageandlossesaffecting
agriculturerises.Twenty-five percent of the economic impact caused by climate-related
disasters falls on the agriculture sector.
25 Inthe2013GlobalAssessmentReport,themonetaryvalueofdisasterimpactwascalculatedbasedonphysicalimpactindicatorsreportedin45nationaldisasterlossdatabases.Physicalimpactindicatorsincludedhousesdamagedanddestroyed,hospitalsdamaged,educationcentresdamaged,damagesinroads,crophectaresdamagedandlivestockunitslost.Accordingtotheestimatedfigures,agriculture(cropsandlivestock)absorbedabout13percentofthetotalmonetaryvalueofdisasterimpact.SeeUnitedNationsOfficeforDisasterRiskReduction(UNISDR)2013.
22%
14% share of damage
up from 30%
share of losses
Intermsofdirectphysicaldamagealone,roughly 14% was to the
agriculture sectorwhiletheremainingdamagewastoothersectors.
This direct damage to agriculture typically includes the partial or total
destruction of vital agricultural infrastructure and assets,including
standingcrops;farmtoolsandequipment;irrigationsystems;livestock
sheltersandveterinaryservices;fishingboatsandequipment;landing
sites;aquacultureequipmentandhatcheries;storage,processing,
marketingandtransportfacilities;buildingsandequipmentoffarm
schoolsandcooperatives,andsectorministriesandtheirdepartments.
Nearly 30% of the share of losses was to the agriculture sector alone.
The greatest economic impact of disasters to the agriculture sector
stems from losses,whilethephysicaldamageissmallergiventhe
relativelylowermonetaryvalueofagriculturalassetswhencompared
withinfrastructuresuchashousingorroads.The losses to the
agriculture sector include a decline in crops, livestock and fisheries and
aquaculture production;increasedcostofproduction,lowerrevenues
andhigheroperationalcostsforservices;unexpectedexpendituresto
meethumanitarianandrecoveryneedsinthesector.
Dam
age
and
loss
es to
agr
icul
ture
as
sha
re o
f tot
al d
amag
e an
d lo
sses
to
all s
ecto
rs
share of damage and losses
CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture
12 13
However,thepercentageshareofdamageandlossestotheagriculturesectorvaries
significantlyamongthedisastersanalysed,influencedbythetypeofdisaster,their
magnitudeorspecificgeographiclocation(ruralversusurban),amongotherfactors.
Forexample,inKenya,85percentofalldamageandlossescausedbydroughtbetween
2008and2011weretotheagriculturesector.InPakistan,thesectorsufferedroughly
50percentofthetotaleconomicimpactofthe2010floods,whiletropicalstormO3B
whichstruckYemenin2008inflicted63percentofitsimpactontheagriculturesector,
andtheIndonesiantsunamiin2004almost20percent.
Thedatawasanalysedbytypeofdisastertodeterminewhichcausedthegreatest
damageandlossestoagriculture,expressedasthepercentageshareoftotaldamage
andlossestoallsectorscombined.AsillustratedinFigure 3, the findings show that
of all natural hazards, the relationship between drought and agriculture is particularly
important as 84 percent of the damage and losses caused by droughts is to agriculture,
whiletheremainingimpactistypicallytosectorssuchashealthandnutrition,energy,
waterandsanitation,amongothers.Thisfigureisanestimatebasedonthreeneeds
assessmentsavailableondroughts–inDjibouti(2008–2011),Kenya(2008–2011)
andUganda(2010–2011).Giventhesignificantimpactofdroughtonagriculture,
andthelimiteddataavailable,ChapterIIIpresentsanin-depthanalysisofdroughtin
sub-SaharanAfrica,showingstrongevidencethatsupportsthisestimate.Hurricanes,
cyclones,typhoonsandfloodsalsohaveaconsiderableimpactontheagriculture
sector,whilegeologicaldisastershaveacomparativelylowereconomicimpact.
Thesefindingsrevealthatasignificantproportionoftheoveralleconomicimpact
ofdisastersfallsontheagriculturesectorwhencomparedwiththetotalimpacton
allsectorscombined.Thisisespeciallytrueinthecaseofclimate-relateddisasters,
particularlydroughts.Yet,therearestrongindicationsthatdamageandlossesto
agricultureareconsiderablyhigherthanreported.Forexample,thedatadoesnot
includethedamageandlossestoagriculture-basedsmallandmediumenterprisesor
on-farmunemploymentandtheconsequentincomelosscausedbydisasters.Such
dataistypicallygroupedunderaseparate“livelihoods”sectorintheassessments
analysed.
Inaddition,disasterimpactonsubsectorssuchasfisheriesandforestryisnotalways
reportedintheassessments26.Moresystematicassessmentsandanalysesofdisaster
impactacrosssectorsareneededtoprovideguidanceforthemainstreamingof
26 Forexample,damageandlossesarenotreportedforthefisheriessubsectorin38percentoftheassessmentsreviewed,and60percentinthecaseoftheforestrysubsector.Althoughinsomecasesthisislikelybecausethesubsectorswerenotaffected,inothersitisnot.
disasterriskreductionintodevelopmentpoliciesandstrategies.Thelargeshare
ofdroughtimpactabsorbedbyagriculture,forexample,calledforthedevelopment
ofnationaldroughtmanagementpoliciesinaffectedcountries.
Regularassessmentofdamageandlossescausedbydroughtwouldprovideinvaluable
supporttopolicy-makersforthemainstreamingofdroughtmanagementprinciplesand
actionsintoagriculturaldevelopmentplans.
Disastersthathaveasignificantimpactonagriculturewilltypicallyslowdownsector
growth,aswellasnationalGDPincountrieswherethesectordriveseconomic
growth.Yettheselossesarenotusuallycalculatedinassessmentsandaretherefore
notreflectedinthedatareportedabove.Finally,thefindingsdonotreflectlossesin
agro-industriesthatresultdirectlyfromagriculturalproductionlosses,suchasinthe
foodprocessingandtextileindustrieswhichdirectlydependonagriculturalinputs27.
Section1.3providesanoverviewofthewiderimpactofdisastersonagriculture,based
onothersourcesofdataandinformation.
Impact of disasters on the agriculture subsectors and natural resources
Impactofdisastersoncrops,livestock,fisheriesandforestryAcloseranalysiswasundertakenofthedamageandlossescausedbythe78disasters,
withrespecttoeachsubsector:crops,livestock,fisheriesandforestry28.Thefindings
showthatwithintheagriculturesector,thecropsubsectorabsorbsover42percentof
thetotaldamageandlossescausedbydisasters,whilethelivestocksubsectorsustains
nearly34percentofthetotaleconomicimpactwithinagriculture29.
Fisheriesabsorbabout5.5percentandforestryroughly2.3percentoftheimpact.
However,theimpactofnaturalhazardsonthesetwosubsectorswasnotalways
reportedintheassessmentsanalysed,sothesefindingslikelyunderestimatetheactual
economicimpactofdisastersonfisheriesandforestry.
Atthesametime,differenttypesofdisastershaveadifferentiatedimpactoneach
subsector,asillustratedinFigure 4,dependingontheirexposureandvulnerabilityor
theirrelativeimportancetonationalorlocaleconomiesandlivelihoods.
Forexample,cropstendtobemostaffectedbyfloodsandstorms;togetherthey
accountforanestimated93percentoftheeconomicimpactonthesubsector.
Livestockisoverwhelminglyaffectedbydroughts,causingnearly86percentofall
damageandlossestothesubsector.
OnestudyfoundthatninemajordroughtsinselectedAfricancountriesbetween
1981and2000resultedinaveragelivestocklossof40percent,witharange
of22–90percent30.InKenya,thelivestocksubsectorwasmostseverelyaffected
duringthe2008–2011drought,whichcausedUSD9billionindamageandlosses
duringthisperiod.Thedroughtdepletedpasturesandwater,especiallyinthearid
andsemi-aridlandareas,resultinginthedeteriorationoflivestockbodycondition
andreducedimmunity.Thistriggeredmassivemigrationoflivestocktootherregions
withbetterwatersources,andthecongregationofmigratingherdsledtoincreased
andwidespreaddiseaseoutbreaksinmostpartsofKenya.Livestockmortalityfrom
starvationanddiseaseaffected9percentoflivestock,whilediseaseincidencereached
morethan40percentofherdsintheaffecteddistricts.
27 Lossestoagriculture-dependentindustriesarenotdisaggregatedintheneedsassessmentsreviewedandcouldthereforenotbecalculatedintothedamageandlossestotheagriculturesector.
28 The78disastersanalysedcorrespondtothosereviewedintheprevioussection,andreferencedinAnnex3.Thedatareportedforthe“agriculturesector”combinesdamageandlossestocrops,livestock,fisheries,forestryandirrigationalthoughthesearereportedunderdifferent“sectors”intheassessments.
29 Thesefindingsshouldbeconsideredinviewoftheunder-reportingonthefisheriesandforestrysubsectorsintheassessmentsanalysed.
30 UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme.2009.TheEnvironmentalFoodCrisis:theEnvironment’sRoleinAvertingFutureFoodCrises.
1.2
Within the agriculture sector,
the crop subsector absorbs
over 42 percent of the total
damage and losses
caused by disasters,
while the livestock subsector
sustains nearly 36 percent
Earthquakes (4%)
Drought (84%)
Storms (18%)Floods (15%) Tsunamis (14%)
100%
0%
25%
50%
75%
Source:FAO,basedonneedsassessmentsreviewed
Figure 3. Damage and losses to the agriculture sector by type of hazard (percentage share of all sectors combined)
CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture
14 15
Thishaschangedlivestockcompositionandusage,anddepressedlivestockproductivity.
Livestockmigrationandreducedproductivitycausedfoodinsecurity,lossofearnings,
separationoffamilies,schooldropouts,environmentaldegradationandresource-based
conflicts.Inaddition,highfoodpricesdeterioratedthepurchasingcapacityofhouseholds
andthetermsoftradeforpastoralists(50–60percentbelowthefive-yearaverage).
Inaridandsemi-aridlanddistricts,pastoralistsreportedcriticalratesofacute
malnutritioninchildren(globalacutemalnutrition>20percent),fallingwithintheWorld
HealthOrganizationemergencythreshold.In2011,some3.7millionpeoplewerefood
insecure–1.8millioninmarginalagriculturalareasand1.9millioninpastoralareas.
Thefisheriessubsectorismostaffectedbytsunamisandstormssuchashurricanes
andcyclones,whilemostoftheeconomicimpacttoforestryiscausedbyfloodsand
storms(excludingwildfires).Ofthe78disastersreviewed,the2004tsunamiaffecting
IndiaandIndonesiahadthegreatesteconomicimpactonfisheries,causingover
USD500millionindamageandlossestothesubsectorineachcountry.Fisheriesalso
tendtosuffermoreinsmallislanddevelopingstates.IntheMaldives,70percentofthe
economicimpactofthe2004tsunamiintheagriculturesectorwastofisheries,which
The fisheries subsector is
most affected by tsunamis
and storms such as
hurricanes and cyclones,
while most of the economic
impact to forestry is caused
by floods and storms
hadanenormousimpactonlivelihoodsandthenationaleconomy31.Thesubsector
(fisheriesandfishprocessing)contributedover9percenttonationalGDPin2004
andwasthesecondmajorsourceofforeignexchangeaftertourism.One-thirdofthe
annualcatchistypicallyconsumeddomestically,whilefishaccountedforalmosthalf
ofthecountry’sexports.Thesectoremployed11percentofthelabourforceandabout
20percentofthetotalpopulationreliesonfisheriesastheirmainincome-earning
activity.Fisheriesinfrastructureandassetsweredestroyedordamaged,including
fisheryislandharboursandsafeanchorage,boatsheds,fishingvessels,cottageand
commercialfishprocessorsandotherassets.Withinthefisheriessubsector,poleand
linetunaharvestingandsmall-scalefishprocessingweremostaffectedbythetsunami.
Inthecaseofforestry,biomassfireshaveasignificantimpact,burningannuallybetween
3and4.5millionkm2globally–anareaequivalenttoIndiaandPakistancombined–with
negativeconsequencesforthemultipleservicesthatforestsprovidetolocalecosystems
andthenaturalcapitalonwhichagriculturedepends.CycloneNargiswhichstruck
Myanmarin2008causedalmostUSD55millionindamageandlossestotheforestry
subsector.Thecyclonealsoimpactedothersubsectors.About2.4millionpeoplewere
affected,mainlyinthecountry’sAyeyarwadyRiverDeltawhere50–60percentoffamilies
areengagedinagricultureandbetween20and30percentarelandless,relyingonfishing
andagriculturallabour.Thecycloneaffectedpaddycropsandplantationcrops,and
causedthelossof50percentofbuffaloesand20percentofcattleintheworst-affected
townships.Overhalfofsmallricemillsandtwo-thirdsoflargerricemillsintheaffected
areasweredamaged.Commercialintensiveaquaculturewasaffectedbythedamageto
fisheriesinfrastructure,whileheavydamagetobothonshoreproductionfacilitiesand
fishingboatsaffectedtheproductionofdriedfishandshrimp,andfishpaste.Asaresult,
thecyclonehadacriticalimpactonlivelihoods,employmentandincome,particularlyin
theinformalsector,suchasseasonaljobsinagriculture,communityworks,small-scale
fishing,ricemills,fishprocessing,saltproduction,woodcutting,andotherresource-
basedeconomicactivities.
Smallholderfarmerslostincome-earningopportunities,asdidthoseinvolvedin
small-scaleinshoreandoffshorefishing,landlesspoordependentonwagelabour
inagricultureandskilledworkerspreviouslyemployedinawiderangeofsmalland
mediummanufacturingandprocessingenterprises.
Thesefindingsshowhowtheagriculturesubsectorscanbeaffecteddifferentlyby
disasters.Understandingthesedifferencesiscriticaltotheformulationofpolicyand
practicesatnational,subnationalandcommunitylevels.Measurestostrengthenthe
resilienceofmarinefisheries,forexample,needtoconsidertsunamisandstormswhich
tendtocausethegreatestimpact,whereasinlandfisheriesmustconsidertheimpact
offloodsanddroughts.Wildfiresanddrought(oftencombined)areimportanthazards
affectingforestry,whichrequirespecialattentioninriskreductionpoliciesandplanning.
Furthermore,disaggregatedsubsectoraldataondisasterimpactisneededtosupport
theimplementationofinnovativeriskmanagementtools,suchasweatherriskinsurance
schemesforagricultureandrurallivelihoods.Systematicandcoherentdataavailability
willfacilitatethedesignofinsuranceschemeswhichwouldhelptofurtherdiversifyrisk
mitigationstrategies.
Anotherconsiderationisthepotentialcontributionthatthesubsectorscanmakein
post-disastersituations,dependingontherelativeimpactoneach.Forinstance,capture
fisheriescanberestoredrelativelyquicklyafteradisaster(providedthatnoserious
damagehasbeencausedtotheaquaticenvironment)andmaybeabletoprovide
alternativelivelihoodstoaffectedpopulationsduringtherecoveryphase.Assessmentsof
disasterimpactoneachofthesubsectorswillvaryatcountryandsubnationallevels,and
31 RepublicoftheMaldives,WorldBank,AsianDevelopmentBank,UnitedNations.2005.JointNeedsAssessment.
Cyclone Nargis, which struck
Myanmar in 2008,
had the greatest economic
impact on forestry of all
the agriculture subsectors
1. Crops: damage and loss to crops by type of hazard (percentageshare)
2. Livestock: damage and loss to livestock by type of hazard (percentageshare)
3. Fisheries: damage and loss to fisheries by type of hazard (percentageshare)
4. Forestry: damage and loss to forestry by type of hazard (percentageshare)
Legend: Storms Floods Drought Tsunamis Earthquakes
14.6%
1.6%
0.7
%
25.4
%
57.7%85.4
%
3.7%2.
3%
8.4%
0.2
%
68.9%
0.4
%
18.1%
9.6%
3%
2.7%
3.2%5%
89.1%
Figure 4. Damage and losses to agriculture subsectors by type of hazard Source:FAO,basedonneedsassessments(seeAnnex3).
Percentage share of damage and losses by sector(2007 floods in Tabasco, Mexico)
Damage and losses by agriculture subsector (USD) (2007 Floods in Tabasco, Mexico)
800,000,000
700,000,000
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
681,347,859
70,322,705 63,084,545796,106
Infra
structu
re
18%
Agriculture
28%
Housing,health,
education,culture
19%
Envi
ronm
ent
1%
Commerce,industry,
construction,
services,tourism34%
Case study The 2007 floods in Tabasco, Mexico: the impact on the agriculture sector and subsectors
InSeptemberandOctober2007,Mexicowasstruckbyheavyrainfallcausingseriousflooding.Theimpactwas
especiallysevereinthestateofTabascowith60%ofitssurfacefloodedand1.5millionofitspopulationaffected
(75%ofthestate’spopulation).
The floods caused roughly USD 3 billion in damage and losses in Tabasco, equivalent to over 29% of the state’s GDP.
About 28% of the total economic impact was on the agriculture sector.
The damage and losses caused by the floods on all sectors, on agriculture and on its subsectors
Crops Livestock Fisheries Forestry
The impact of floods
The floods damaged or destroyed a
total of 93,319 ha and
1.6 million tonnes of crops,
includingmaize,rice,cacao,sugar
caneandplantain,amongothers.
Maize production was reduced
by 40–80%. Maize losses were
a serious impact on household
food security since 85% of maize
production is for consumptionand
isabasicstapleamongthelocal
population,particularyforpoor
households.
Thefloodsdestroyed383,000tonnes
ofplantains,damagingordestroying
roughly65%oftheareaplanted.
About97%ofthecacaoplantedwas
damagedordestroyed.
About80%oftheareaplanted
withsugarcanewasdestroyed
ordamaged,causingthelossof
27,000jobs.
The floods affected about
32% of grazing pastures,
roughlyabout504,000ha,
and killed over 21,000 heads
of livestock, resultingin
asignificantreductionin
meatandmilkproduction.
Inaddition, 14,562 poultry
and over 2,000 pigs perished
orwereconsumedbythe
affectedpopulation,causinga
collapseinhouseholdbackyard
production.
The floods destroyed fishing
and aquaculture infrastructure
andfacilities,suchasfish
farms,oysterbanks,fishfeed
andfishreproductionfacilities.
Therewerelosses in fish and
aquaculture productionof
robalo,tilapia,carb,shrimp,
oysterandothercrustaceans
andfishspecies.Over
477,000 tonnes of fish were lost.
The floods affected over
1,000 ha of forests, andabout
366hahadtobereforested
withover244,000plants.In
addition, 687 ha of eucalyptus
and 1.3 million nursery plants
were damaged.
Crops Livestock Fisheries Forestry
17
investmentstoreduceriskandbuildresilienceinthesesubsectorsshouldbeinformedby
theparticularnatureofdisasterimpactonthatsubsector.Yet,forestryandfisheriestendtobeunder-reportedinneedsassessmentsandtheimpact
ofdisastersonthesemustbebetterassessedandunderstood.
Thedirectdamageandindirectlossesoffloodstothesubsectorsisillustratedinmore
detailinthecasestudyonthe2007floodsintheTabascoregionofMexico.
ImpactofdisastersonnaturalresourcesandecosystemservicesDisastersalsodamageordestroynaturalresourcesandecosystemservicesthat
sustainagriculture.Land,waterandbiologicaldiversityformthenaturalresourcebase
ofagriculture,essentialtorurallivelihoodsandsustainableagriculturaldevelopment.
Forexample,forestsandtree-basedagriculturalsystemscontributetothelivelihoods
ofanestimated1billionpeopleglobally32.Wildfoodsareimportantforfoodsecurity
andnutrition,whiletreesandforestsarevitalintheprovisionofecosystemservicesto
agriculture.Marine,coastalandinlandareasalsosupportarichassortmentofaquatic
biodiversity.Theplanetalreadyfacesmultiplepressures,includingonfragilesoils,
watersupplies,competingdemandsforland,overfishingandotherpressures,
andtheimpactofdisastersfurthererodesthisvitalresourcebaseforagriculture
andlivelihoods.
Disasters contribute to ecosystem degradation and loss, including increased soil
erosion, declining rangeland quality, salinization of soils, deforestation and biodiversity
loss.Increasingenvironmentaldegradationreducestheavailabilityofgoodsand
servicestolocalcommunities,shrinkseconomicopportunitiesandlivelihoodoptions,
andultimatelycontributestogreaterfoodinsecurityandhunger.Itfurtherdrives
increasingnumbersofpeopletousemarginallandsandfragileenvironments33.
Yet,theimpactofdisastersonnaturalresourcesandtheenvironmentisnotalways
evaluatedinneedsassessmentsandremainsalargelyunder-assessedsector,interms
ofdirectandindirecteconomiclosses.However,sometrendscanbeobservedfrom
the78disastersreviewed,whichshowthat43ofthesedisastersaffectednatural
resourcesandtheenvironment,causingoverUSD2.3billionindamageandlosses34.
In2007,HurricaneFelixinNicaraguacausedatotalofUSD552millionindamage
andlossestonaturalresourcesandtheenvironment,inadditiontoUSD57millionin
damageandlossestotheagriculturesector.TropicalStormAgathaandthevolcanic
eruptionofPacayain2010inGuatemalaalsohadaconsiderableimpactonthesector,
causingUSD260millionindamageandlosses.
Atthesametime,thedeforestationcausedbydisastersandtheirdegradationof
land,catchmentsandwatersheds,depletionofreefsandcoastalecosystemssuch
ascoralsandmangroves,reducenature’sdefensecapacityagainstfuturehazards35.
Forestsserveasshelterbeltsandwindbreaks,andprotectagainstlandslides,floods
andavalanches 36.Treesstabilizeriverbanksandmitigatesoilerosion,whilewoodlots
providefuelwood,timberandfodder.Forestsareestimatedtosavebetween
USD2billionandUSD3.5billionperyearequivalentindisasterdamagerestoration
ofkeyforestecosystems37.
32 CenterforInternationalForestryResearch.2013.FoodSecurityandNutrition:theRoleofForests.33 FAO.2013.Resilientlivelihoods.DisasterRiskReductionforFoodandNutritionSecurity;UNISDR,2004,
LivingwithRisk:aGlobalReviewofDisasterReductionInitiatives.34 Thedamageandlossesreportedtonaturalresourcesandtheenvironmentalsoincludesforestry.35 FAO.2013.Resilientlivelihoods.DisasterRiskReductionforFoodandNutritionSecurity;UNISDR,2004,
LivingwithRisk:aGlobalReviewofDisasterReductionInitiatives.36 D.Burgeon,T.Hofer,P.vanLieropandS.Wabbes.2015.Treesandforests–lifelinesforresilience.FAO,
Unasylva66(1-2),pp.86–89.37 InternationalUnionfortheConservationofNature(IUCN),UNISDR.2009.EnvironmentalGuidanceNote
forDisasterRiskReduction:HealthyEcosystemsforHumanSecurity.2009.IUCN,UNISDR.
Of the 78 disasters
covered in PDNAs,
43 caused a total of
over USD 2.3 billion
in damage and losses
to natural resources
and the environment
19
Wider and cumulative impact of disasters
Assessmentsoftheimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorapplydifferent
approachesandmethodologies.Somefocusontheeconomicimpact,suchas
theneedsassessmentsreviewedintheprevioussectionswhichevaluatedamage
andlosses.However,thesedonotassessthecascadingandwiderimpactthat
disastershaveonthefoodvaluechain,agro-industriesandsectorgrowth,orcapture
theimplicationsforlivelihoodsandfoodsecurity.Someassessmentsdofollowa
livelihoodsapproachorfocusonfoodsecurity38.Theseandothertypesofassessments
representdifferentanalyticallensesthroughwhichwecanmeasureimpact,yielding
38 Forexample,themethodologiesproposedinthejointFAO/InternationalLabourOrganizationLivelihoodAssessmentToolkit,ortheEmergencyFoodSecurityAssessmentHandbookbytheWorldFoodProgramme.
1.3 differentresults.Theapproachesandfindingstheyproducearecomplementary;
togethertheypresentaholisticpictureofdisasterimpactonagricultureanditsbroader
consequences.
Figure 5summarizesthewiderimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesectorasawhole
anditspotentialconsequences,groupedintofivecorecategories:
Ú Directphysicaldamage
Ú Lossesacrossthefoodvaluechain(backward-forwardlinkages)
Ú Lossestomanufacturing(agro-industries)
Ú Consequentmacro-economicimpact
Ú Impactonlivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition
Ú Effectonsustainabledevelopment
Thissectionpresentsanoverviewofthebroaderimpactbasedoncasestudies.
Thephysicaldamagecausedbydisastershasadirectimpactonagriculturalproduction
withnegativeconsequencesalongthefoodvaluechain,includingbackwardlinkages
–disruptingtheflowofagriculturalinputssuchasseedsandfertilizers–andforward
linkageswithprocessinganddistribution,marketsandretailers.Disasterscandestroy
theinfrastructureofinputsuppliersandpost-harvestfacilities.Theycaninterruptfood
supply,marketaccessandtrade.Inmedium-andlarge-scaledisasters,highproduction
lossescanleadtoincreasesinimportsoffoodandagriculturalcommoditiesto
compensateforlostproductionandmeetdomesticdemand,increasingpublic
expenditure.Theycanalsoreduceexportsandrevenues,withnegativeconsequences
forthebalanceofpayment.Whenpost-disasterproductionlossesaresignificantand
incountrieswherethesectormakesanimportantcontributiontoeconomicgrowth,
agriculturevalue-addedorsectorgrowthfalls,asdoesnationalGDP.
Inaddition,theagriculturesectorsuppliesvitalresourcestoindustryandstimulates
thegrowthofsomemanufacturingsubsectors.Therefore,agriculturalproduction
lossescanreducemanufacturing/industrialoutputinsectorsthatdependon
agricultureandrawmaterials.Agro-industriessuchasfoodprocessingareparticularly
vulnerable.Insomecases,non-foodagro-industries,suchasthetextileindustry,can
alsobenegativelyaffectedbyproductionlosses.Suchagro-industries(bothfoodand
non-food)willsufferfromlossesinproductionaswell,withsimilarconsequencesfor
domesticsupplies,exports,nationalrevenuesandultimatelymanufacturingvalue
added.Theinter-dependencebetweenagricultureandindustryisimportanttothe
economiesofleastdevelopedcountrieswhereagro-industrialsectorsaccountfor
two-thirdsofthemanufacturingoutput.Theshareofagro-industrialsectorsintotal
manufacturingvalueaddedis70percentinUnitedRepublicofTanzania,51percent
inEthiopia,35percentinKenya,29percentinMexicoand20percentinIndia39.
Atthesametime,disastersdirectlyimpactonagriculturallivelihoods,foodsecurity
andnutrition.Disasterscancauseunemploymentand/oradeclineinwagesand
thereforeincomeamongfarmersandfarmlabourers,andlowertheavailabilityoffood
commoditiesinlocalmarketswhichtypicallyproducesfoodinflation.Suchpressures
reducethepurchasingcapacityofhouseholds,restrictaccesstofood,depletesavings,
forcethesaleofvitalproductiveassets,increaseindebtednessanderodelivelihoods.
Ultimately,thequantityandqualityoffoodconsumptionisreduced,andfoodinsecurity
andmalnutritionincreases,particularlyamongthemostvulnerablehouseholds.This
impactismostfeltatthelocalandhouseholdlevelsindisaster-affectedareas.
39 Dataisfor2009,fromtheUnitedNationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization.2012.Thestructureandgrowthpatternofagro-industryofAfricancountries.
Disasters cause direct and
indirect losses – with serious
repercussions on future
harvests, agriculture-related
manufacturing and
industrial outputs
Figure 5: The impact of disasters on the agriculture sector and its wider potential consequences
Lossesinthemanufacturingsector,particularlyfoodandnon-foodagro-industries,suchasfoodprocessingandtextiles.
Lossesinproduction(crops,livestock,fishery,forestry)Lossesinecosystemservices
Erosionoflivelihoods,increasedfoodinsecurityandmalnutrition
Direct physical damage
Deteriorationofcountry’sbalanceofpayments,and
increasedborrowing
Losses to manufacturing(agro-industries)
Damagetoagriculturalinfrastructure(irrigation,
storagefacilities,livestockshelters,fishingvessels,etc.)
Damagetosuppliersofagriculturalinputsto
financialandbusinessservicestothesector
Damagetotransportandcommunication
suchasfarmaccessroads
Damagetoforestsandothernatural
resourcesthatsupportagriculture
Losses across the food value chain(backward-forward linkages) Impact on livelihoods, food security and nutrition
Damagetoassets,suchascrops,grainreserves
andseedstocks,livestockmortality,etc.
Lossestosuppliersofinputs,andlowersales/supplyofagricultural
inputs(seedsfertilizers,feed,tools,etc.)
Disruptionoffinancialandbusinessservicestoagriculture(credit,
farmschools,etc.)
Lowersupplyoffoodandagriculturalcommoditiesto
processors,traders,markets,wholesalers
andretailers
Foodinflation
Reducedfoodconsumptionand
dietaryquality
Increasedindebtedness
Increasedhouseholdexpenditure
Incomelossandlowerpurchasingpower
forretailers
Weaksocialsupportnetworksforretailers
Loweravailabilityandaccesstofood
UnemploymentDisruptionoffarmer
organizationsandsocialnetworks
The macro-economic impact The effect on sustainable development
DropinnationalGDP
Increasedimportsoffood,
agriculturalcommodities,
inputs,andreliefitems,increasing
expenditures
Lowerexportsofagriculturalcommodities
andagro-industrialgoods,decreasingexport
earnings
Reducedagriculturesector
growth(%ofGDP)
Reducedmanufacturingsectorgrowth(%ofGDP)
Compromisesthecapacitytomeetglobalcommitmentstoachievesustainabledevelopmentgoals,particularlySDG2whichstrivesto“Endhunger,achievefoodsecurityandimprovednutrition,
andpromotesustainableagriculture”
Stuntsnationalsectorgrowth
andsustainableagricultural
development
Arrestsnationaleconomicgrowth
andprosperity
Limitsnationalcapacitytoeradicate
hunger,foodinsecurityandpoverty
Agriculture, livestock
and fisheries (50%)
Irrigation and
flood management (2%)
Governance (1%)
Com
mer
ce, i
ndus
try
and
finan
ce (
9%)
Education (3%)
Health (1%)
Housing (19%)
Energy (2%)
Water and sanitation (1%)
Transp
ort
and co
mm
unicatio
ns (12
%)
20
Theextenttowhichdisasterserodelivelihoods,producefoodinsecurity,causedisruptions
alongthefoodvaluechain,reducemanufacturingoutputandlowersectorgrowthand
nationalGDPvariesdependingonnumerousfactorsbeyondthestudy’sscope.
Suchfactorsincludethenature,locationandscaleofthedisaster;itstiminginrelation
totheagriculturalcalendar;thesizeandcompositionoftheagriculturesector;its
relativeimportancetoemployment,income,manufacturingandnationalGDP;the
vulnerabilityofthesectorandaffectedpopulationstoshocks;andtheemergency
policiesormeasuresintroducedbygovernmentstomitigatetheimpactofdisasters.
Insub-SaharanAfrica,forexample,droughtscausesignificantdamageandlossesto
agriculture.InUganda,the2005–2007droughtand2010–2011rainfalldeficitshad
far-reachingimpactsonthenationaleconomy,causingproductionlossesespeciallyfor
thelivestocksubsector,reducingexports,affectingagro-industriesandslowingtheGDP
growthrate.(SeeSection3.2forfurtherdetailontheeffectsofdroughtinUganda.)
ThefollowingcasestudyonfloodsinPakistanisanotherexampleofhowandtowhatextent
theimpactofdisastersonagriculturalproductionhasacarry-overeffectontheeconomyand
foodsecurity.
Case study: The Pakistan floods in 2010 – the wider impact on agriculture, the value chain and the economya
Agriculturewasthehardesthitsector.Alarge
portionofPakistan’smostfertilelandwasaffected,
includingthebreadbasketprovinceofPunjab.
Thesectorcontributesabout45%oftotal
employmentandwasthebasicsourceof
livelihoodfor80%oftheaffectedpopulation.
About4.5millionworkerswereaffected,
two-thirdsofwhomwereemployedinagriculture.
Over70percentoffarmerslostmorethanhalf
oftheirexpectedincome.
ThefloodscausedUSD10billionindamageand
losses–USD 5 billion to the agriculture sector.
Bycontrast,justUSD200millionwasallocated
tothecountry’sagriculturesectorinthe2014/15
nationalbudgetb.
Decrease in production and increase in imports of rice (USD)
Damage and losses to each sector, percentage share of total
The performance of agriculture added value and national GDP, 2006–2012
PakistanexperiencedextraordinaryrainfallfromJulytoSeptember2010,resultinginunprecedentedfloods
affectingtheentirelengthofthecountryandmorethan20millionpeople–overone-tenthofthepopulation.
About2.4millionhaofunharvestedcrops
werelostduetothefloods,mainlycotton,
rice,sugarcaneandvegetables,aswellas
1milliontonnesoffoodandseedstocks.
Thisnegativelyaffectedcottonginning,rice
processingandflourandsugarmilling.
Riceproduction–thesecondlargeststaple
foodcropinPakistan–fellto7.2million
tonnesin2010from10.3milliontonnes
in2009,andriceimportssurgedfrom
1,925tonnesin2010to21,052tonnesin2011.
12 million
10 million
8 million
6 million
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
201120102009200820072006
Production
Imports
Pakistan’sforeignexchangereservesdependonexports,about75%ofwhicharefromagricultureandtextiles.The
potentiallynegativeimpactoflostcottonproductiononthetextileindustrywasoffsetbyasurgeinglobalcottonprices
thatprovidedunprecedentedhighexportprices,inducedproductionandincreasedearningsfromtextileexports.
Followingthefloods,agriculturesectorgrowthdroppedfrom3.5%in2009to0.2%in2010and1.9%in2011.National
GDPfellfrom2.8%in2009to1.6%in2010.InPakistan,agriculturecontributesabout24%ofGDP.Thegraphbelow
showsthestrongcorrelationbetweenagricultureandGDPgrowth.
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0
2012201120102009200820072006
LegendGDPannualgrowth(%)
Agriculturevalue-added
annualgrowth(%)
a Source:FAO,basedonAsianDevelopmentBank,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2010.PakistanFloods2010:PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment;PakistanCongressionalResearchService.2010.FloodinginPakistan:OverviewandIssuesforCongress;GovernmentofPakistan.2011.PakistanEconomicSurvey:2010-2011.FAO.2011.Pakistanfloods:oneyearon;FAOSTAT.
b GovernmentofPakistan,FederalBudget2014/15.http://www.finance.gov.pk/budget/Budget_in_Brief_2014_15.pdfCHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture
PAKISTAN 2010 floods: The impact on the food value chain, manufacturing, the economy and food security
Source:FAO,basedonStateBankofPakistan.2011.TheStateofPakistan’sEconomy:AnnualReport2010–2011;PakistanCongressionalResearchService.2010.
FloodinginPakistan:OverviewandIssuesforCongress;FAO.2011.Pakistanfloods:oneyearon;AgricultureCluster.2010.PreliminaryRapidDamageAssessmentinthe
AgricultureSectorforFlood-AffectedAreasofPakistan;FAO.2010.ExecutiveBrief:PakistanFlooding;AsianDevelopmentBank,WorldBankandUnitedNations.2010.PakistanFloods2010:PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment;ArshadAli,etal.Perspectivesonthe2010floodsinPakistan;WorldFoodProgramme.2010.
PakistanFloodImpactAssessment.
Cropsabsorbednearly90%ofthedamageand
lossesinagriculture.
Over2millionhaofstandingcropswerelost,
mainlycotton,rice,sugarcaneandvegetables.
1milliontonnesoffoodandseedstocks
weredamaged.
PRE-PRODUCTION DAMAGE AND LOSSES POST-PRODUCTION LOSSES LOSSES TO THE WIDER NATIONAL ECONOMY
FOOD AND NUTRITION INSECURITY
Livestock:About1.5millionanimalsand
10millionpoultrywerelost.
Milkproductiondeclined.
Fisheries:Fishfarms,fishponds,hatcheries,
boatsandgearwerewashedawayordamaged.
Agriculture infrastructurewasdamaged
includingmachinery,warehouses,irrigation
systems,animalhealthclinics,agricultureand
livestockresearchandextensionofficesand
governmentbuildingsandfacilities.
Enterprises:Floodsdamagedmicro-,smalland
mediumenterprises,suchascottonginning,
riceprocessing,flourandsugarmilling,silkand
horticulture.
Environment and ecosystem services:Floods
damagedordestroyedtrees,forestsandforest
lands,plantations,forestnurseries,mangroves,
wetlands,wildliferesourcesandothernatural
assetsthatsustainagricultureandlivelihoods.
Manufacturing/industry
Mainindustriesaffectedwerecottonginning,rice
processing,andflourandsugarmilling.
Acuteinputshortagesinthetextilesectorduetoloss
of2–3millionbalesofcotton.Textilesprovideabout
one-thirdofmanufacturingsectorvalueadded.
Losstosugarcanecropwouldaffectoutputofthe
sugarindustry.Milk,meat,fruit,packagingand
preparingunitsalsoaffected.
Markets
Accesstomarketsdisruptedbydamagedroadand
railnetworks.
Disruptionsandlossofstoredfoodandagricultural
inputsdecreasedthecapacityofoperatorsalongthe
valuechain(transporters,processors,wholesalers
andretailers),raisedtransactioncostsandreduced
marketfunctionalityandtheavailabilityoffood.
National GDPfellfrom2.8%to1.6%between
2009and2010.
Financial sector:Bankingabsorbed93%ofthe
USD1billioninloanlosses.Largestshareofloan
losseswastotheagriculturesectorat55%.Within
themicro-financesector,agriculturerepresented
about69%ofallnon-performingloans.
Agriculture sector growthfellto0.2%in2010
from3.5%in2009.
Shortfalls in domestic availability of food
and agricultural commodities–over60%of
householdslostmuchoftheirfoodgrainstocks,
55%lostatleasthalftheirseedstocks.
Imports:Riceimportsincreasedfrom1,925to
21,052tonnesbetween2010and2011,andcotton
from25to3,361tonnesbetween2009and2010.
Inflation:Foodinflationsurgedto20%by
September2010from12%inJuly.
Income loss:Over70%offarmerslostmorethan
50%oftheirexpectedincome.
Unemployment:4.5millionworkerswereaffected;
two-thirdswereemployedinagriculture.
Fiscal deficit: Significantincreaseinfederaland
provincialgovernmentexpenditures.
Thewideningfiscaldeficitwaslargelyfinanced
throughshort-termborrowing.
Food consumption:Dietarydiversitywaspoor;
almostone-thirdofthepopulationhadpoor
consumptionintakeand19%wereborderline.
Damage and losses:Thefloodscausedover
USD5billionindamageandlosstothe
agriculturesector,about14%ofthesectorvalue
addedin2009–2010.
Indebtedness:Farmers’debtdoubledortripled,
forcingthemtoseekfurtherloanstobuy
agriculturalinputsandfood.Morethanone-third
ofhouseholdswereborrowing.
Recovery cost:Estimatesforagriculture
sectorpost-disasterrecoveryrangedfrom
USD257milliontoUSD1billion.
Poverty:Householdswhoselivelihoodsweremost
affectedhadthelowestincomelevels–ofthose
whoseincomefellby75%ormore,45%lived
belowthenationalpovertyline.
22 23CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture
24 25
Case study: The impact of recurring disasters on the agriculture sector in the Philippines, Pakistan and Tabasco, Mexico
+ $1.94 B
= $8 Billion
+ $5.31 B
+ $355.4 M
$336.5 M
Floods 2011
Floods 2010
Earthquake 2005Cyclone/Floods 2007
+ $215 M
= $1.2 Billion
$735 M
+ $163 M
+ $112 M
+ $32 M
75 disasters US$3.8 billion
Between 2006 and 2013, the Philippines was struck by 75 disasters – mostly typhoons, tropical storms
and floods – which caused accumulated damage and losses of some USD 3.8 billion to the country’s agriculture sector. In other words, the country’s agriculture sector absorbed
an average of USD 477 million in damage and losses each year – about one-quarter of the national budget
allocated to the sector in 2014
The PhilippinesÜ
2005 earthquake a cyclone combined with floods in 2007
floods in 2010 and in 2011
US$8 billion
The agriculture sector was affected by all four consecutive disasters, which together caused
nearly US$8 billion in accumulated damage and losses. This is four times what the government
of Pakistan spent on the agriculture sector between 2008 and 2011
5 flood events between 2007 and 2011
US$1.2 billion
By 2011 the state’s agriculture sector had sustained a total of over US$1.2 billion in accumulated damage and losses as a result of the five consecutive floods.
This is a large loss for Tabasco, as it represents more than twice the state’s agriculture GDP in 2012
Pakistan
Tabasco, Mexico
Ü
Ü
+ $804 M
= $3.8 Billion
+ $750 M
+ $528 M
+ $209 M
+ $734 M
+ $369 M
+ $112 M
$268 M
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2011
2007
2008
2009
2010
Detailed, disaggregated information on the impact of disasters is necessary to better
understand and counteract the particular way in which the agriculture sector is affected,
and ultimately it is needed to inform the adoption of policies that help protect sector
development plans and investments from shocks and crises, and strengthen the
sector’s resilience. The fact that disasters do not affect all peoples and sectors in the
same way, nor to the same extent, has important policy implications. For example,
as the present study will illustrate, droughts have a high impact on agriculture while
infrastructure such as roads and housing is more affected by earthquakes. There are
also important differences across developing regions.
Sector–specific quantitative data on damage and losses is necessary to understand
the breadth and scope of disaster impact on agriculture and livelihoods, and to design
appropriate measures to counteract their impact. The adoption of national agricultural
policies that strive to strengthen the sector’s resilience needs to be informed by a clear
understanding of the way in which disasters impact on crop, livestock, fisheries or
forestry production, the specific hazards which produce the greatest damage and loss
to agriculture, or the manner and extent to which they arrest sector economic growth. It
requires an understanding of how disasters compromise a country’s national goals to
achieve sustainable agricultural growth and development, to reduce hunger and poverty,
and to achieve its targets under relevant international commitments.
This is particularly crucial in countries where the sector makes a significant contribution
to national GDP. Agriculture contributes as much as 30 percent of national GDP in
Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Nepal, Niger and Mozambique
among others. Similarly, efforts to reduce hunger and food insecurity are much more
difficult to achieve in countries where the sector provides a high percentage share of
total employment and where disasters are reoccurring events, such as in Bangladesh,
Haiti, Lao PDR, Nepal and Uganda where it ranges from 48 to 67 percent, and in
Ethiopia, Mozambique and Chad where it is over 79 percent.
Globally available statistics on the economic impact of disasters, however, do not
disaggregate the impact on all individual sectors. Even though most countries do
conduct needs assessments in the aftermath of most disasters and while some
countries have national disaster loss databases, most of the existing national and
international databases typically report populations affected and damage to housing
and other infrastructure, but seldom report damage and losses in the agriculture sector.
Data on disaster impacts in agricultural at subnational level is basically non available or
not systematized at all.
The lack of global data is largely because the impact of disasters is not being collected
and reported in a systematic way by sector at country level. An additional challenge
is that existing databases and needs assessments do not share a common method
for assessing the impact of disasters. For the agriculture sector, measures to assess
disaster impact tend to focus on the physical damage to crops or livestock and/or
on livelihoods and food security. Yet, as the findings of this study reveal, the direct
damage to crops and livestock is only one dimension of disaster impact on the
sector, other consequences include losses in production and productivity resulting in
additional losses across the agriculture value chain, on sector economic growth and
consequently on national economies. In addition, sub-sectors such as fisheries and
forestry are often under-reported, as is a detailed assessment of losses by commodities.
As a consequence the ultimate impact on hunger and poverty is not captured. As a
result, there is limited understanding of the extent and ways in which different types of
disasters impact the agriculture sector and its sub–sectors in developing countries.
Almost two-third of total
declines in exports after
disasters occurred in Asian
countries
Decreases in exports of
cereals, pulses, milk and meat
amounted to nearly US$ 7
billion, or 5.7 percent of the
expected value of exports
8 PART I Quantifying the losses caused by disasters over the past decade
ÜÜ
Ü
in damage and losses accumulated
in damage and losses accumulated
in damage and losses accumulated
Inmanycountries,disastersarefrequenteventsthatovertimeincurahigheconomic
costintotaldamageandlosses,aswellasinrepeatedinvestmentsinrecoveryby
governmentsandtheinternationalcommunity.Asignificantnumberofdeveloping
countriesexperiencerecurringdisasters.Overthelastdecade,morethanone-thirdof
alldevelopingcountrieshavebeenaffectedbyatleastthreemedium-andlarge-scale
disasters.ThemostaffectedcountrieswereEthiopia,whichfacedsixreported
droughts40,andIndiawithsixreportedfloods41.Thecumulativeimpactofseveral
disastersontheagriculturesectorisillustratedbytheexamplesfromthePhilippines,
PakistanandMexico.
Thischapterillustratesthewiderandcomplexnatureofdisasterimpactonthe
agriculturesector,theseverityofresultingdamageandlosses,andthehighcumulative
costsarisingfromfrequentdisastersinsomecountries.ChapterIIIprovidesadditional
examplesofthewiderimpactofdroughtintheHornofAfrica(Djibouti,Kenyaand
Uganda)andsouthernAfrica(SouthAfricaandZimbabwe).Theagriculturesector’s
actualvulnerabilitytosuchshocksvariesbetweencountries.Itisthereforecriticalto
betterunderstandthesedifferencesintermsofthebroaderimpactofdisastersonthe
sector.Animportantelementinthefindingsofthestudyisthelimitedinformation
availableontheimpactofdisastersacrosstheagriculturalvaluechainandits
consequencesonagro-industries,sectorgrowth,agriculturaldevelopmentand
nationaleconomies.
Oneimportantelementnottypicallyconsideredintheanalysisofdisasterimpacton
theagriculturesectoristheconsequencesonothersectorsthatarecloselylinkedand
dependonagriculture,suchasfoodandnon-foodagro-industries.Thisneedstobe
betterassessedandunderstoodgiventhattheyaccountforthebulkofmanufacturing
outputinmanyless-developedcountries.Understandingthefullramificationsof
disastersisessentialforcountriestoformulatewell-designedandtailoredstrategies
thatcaneffectivelybufferormitigatethehighcosttonationaleconomicgrowth.
Theexamplesinthischapterhighlighttheneedtoadoptsystemicriskreduction
measureswithintheagriculturesectoranditssubsectors,aswellasacross
interdependentsectors.Inparticular,disasterriskreductionprinciplesandmeasures
needtobeembeddedinnationaldevelopmentplansfortheagriculturesector.
Similarly,longer-termandsector-specificstrategiesshouldguidepost-disaster
recoveryeffortsinagricultureinordertostrengthenresilienceandavoidrecreating
vulnerabilitiesandrisks.Thisisparticularlycrucialincountrieswheretheagriculture
sectorisrepeatedlyaffectedbyrecurringdisasters.
Tomeasureattheaggregategloballeveltheextenttowhichdisastershaveawider
impact,astatisticalanalysiswasdoneof140disastersin67developingcountries
todeterminehowdisastersareassociatedwithchangesintradeflows(importsand
exports),andwiththeperformanceofagriculturevalueadded(percentofGDP).
Thefindingsarepresentedinthenextchapter.
40 SeveredroughtsoccurredinEthiopiain2003,2005,2008,2009,2011and2012.41 MajorfloodsoccurredinIndiain2004,2005,2007,2008,2011and2013.
Over the last decade,
more than one-third of all
developing countries have
been affected by at least
three medium- and
large-scale disasters
The study revealed the
limited information available
on the impact of disasters
across the agricultural value
chain and its effect on
agro-industries,
sector growth
and development
and national economies
CHAPTERIThescopeofdisasterimpactonagriculture
26 27
Between 2003 and 2013, crop and livestock production losses after medium- and large-scale disasters in developing countries amounted to more than USD 80 billion
Asia suffered the largest share of total production losses, followed by Africa
Indonesia2005tsunamiDestructionofhomesandagriculturallandinAceh
Quantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade
Dataondamageandlossesintheagriculturesector
arenotsystematicallycollectedorreportedworldwide.
Thischapterisanattempttoquantifycropandlivestock
productionlossesassociatedwithdisastersover
thepastdecadeindevelopingcountries
Chapter II
In developing countries, 83 percent of crop and livestock production losses occurred after floods and droughts
©FA
O/J
imH
olm
es
28 29
Annex5providesfurtherdetailsonthemethodologyused.Thefindingsarepresented
accordingtodifferentperspectives,includingthedistributionoflossesbygeographic
region,bytypeofdisasterandbytypeofcommodity.
Crop and livestock production losses after disasters over the past decade
QuantifyingcropandlivestockproductionlossesAnanalysisofcropandlivestockproductiontrendsrevealssignificantlossesassociated
withthemedium-andlarge-scaledisastersreviewed.The67countriesanalysed
togetherfacedatotalofUSD80billionincropandlivestockproductionlossesafter
the140medium-tolarge-scaledisastersassessedbetween2003and2013,oran
averageofUSD7.3billionperyear.Theselossesweresufferedbycountriesthatderive
asubstantialshareofGDPfromtheagriculturesector(anaverageof21percent
between2003and2013),andwhereagriculturecontributesanaverageof30percent
oftotalemployment.
Mostcropandlivestockproductionlossesoccurredafterfloodsanddroughts,which
togetheraccountfor83percentoftotallosses.Thisprovidesfurtherevidencethat
climate-relateddisastershaveaconsiderableimpactonagriculture,aspresentedin
ChapterI.Addressingtheunderlyingrisksassociatedwithdroughtsandfloodsin
developingcountriesisthereforecrucialtostrengthentheresilienceofagricultureand
protectassociatedlivelihoodsfromshocks.
Theregionaldistributionoflossesprovidesadditionalinsightsastotheextentof
productionlossesassociatedwithdisastersonageographicbasisandinrelationtothe
maintypesofdisasters.Whileabsolutelossesareimportanttounderstandtheoverall
reductionincropandlivestockproduction,meaningfulcross-regionalcomparisonis
possibleonlyinrelativetermswhenconsideringlossesinrelationtotheoverallsize
andvalueofagriculturalproductionineachregion.
InAsia,forexample,productionlossesamountedtoroughlyUSD48billion,
correspondingtoabout60percentoftotallossesinalldevelopingregions.Themost
significantlossesinAsiawereexperiencedafterfloods,whichareassociatedwith
77percentoftheregion’slosses.AlthoughAsiasufferedthelargestabsoluteamount
ofproductionlosses,itwastheleastaffectedregionwhenlossesareplacedinrelation
totheprojectedvalueofproduction49(Figure 6).Whenconsideredatcountrylevel,
thefindingsshowthatIndiawasthemostaffectedbycropandlivestockproduction
lossesafterrepeatedfloodsbetween2004and2013.OtherparticularlyaffectedAsian
countriesincludethePhilippines(e.g.2012Bophaand2013HaiyanTyphoons),
Pakistan(e.g.2010floods),Cambodia(e.g.2005drought)andThailand
(e.g.2008drought).
InAfrica,absolutelossesamountedtomorethanUSD14billion,correspondingto
about6percentoftheprojectedvalueofproduction–morethandoublethatofAsia.
LossesinAfricaareprimarilyfeltafterdroughts,when90percentoftheregion’s
lossesoccurred.Sharpdeclinesinyieldsareobservedinmostcountriesduring
droughts,likelyleadingtolossesinoutputandrevenues.Suchlossesposeaserious
challengetofoodavailability,rurallivelihoodsandtheoveralleconomy,particularly
giventhesignificantcontributionofagriculturetofoodsecurityandtheeconomiesof
sub-SaharanAfrica(seeChapterIIIforacomprehensiveanalysisofdroughtimpact
insub-SaharanAfrica).
49 Projectedvalueofproductioniscalculatedasthetotalvaluethatwouldhavebeenproducedintheanalysedcountriesincaseyieldsandproductionquantitieshadfollowedlineartrends.
2.1
The 67 countries analysed
together faced a total of
USD 80 billion in crop and
livestock production losses
Floods and droughts account
for 83% of total crop and
livestock production losses,
showing the severe impact of
climate-related disasters
on the agriculture sector
Oneofthemostdirectimpactsofdisastersonagricultureisreducedagricultural
productionandproductivity.Thiscausesdirecteconomiclossestofarmers,which
cascadesacrossthevaluechain,affectingoverallsectoralandeconomicgrowth.
Severalstudiesandneedsassessmentsquantifytheimpactofdisastersonagricultural
productionatthecountrylevel,oftenusingprimarydataondamagetocrops.Others
demonstratethatdisastersnegativelyaffectimportsandexportsofagricultural
commodities,andagriculturevalueadded42.However,thefullextentofdisasterimpact
onagriculturalproduction,tradeandvalueaddedattheregionalandgloballevelsis
notavailableorisverylimitedinscope.Thisismainlyduetothefactthatprimarydata
ondamageandlossestoagricultureisnotbeingsystematicallyreportedatthecountry
levelorcollectedworldwide43.
FAOhassoughttofillthisgapbyquantifyingchangesinagriculturalproduction
andeconomicflowsassociatedwithdisasters.Astatisticalanalysiswasperformed
toquantify:(i)cropandlivestockproductionlosses;(ii)changesintradeflows;
and(iii)reducedsectorgrowth.Theanalysiscovered140medium-andlarge-scale
disasters(affectingatleast250000people)thatoccurredbetween2003and2013in
67developingcountriesinAsia44,LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean,theNearEast45and
sub-SaharanAfrica.(Annex2providesalistofcountriesconsideredinthisanalysis.)
Thefollowingmethodwasapplied:
Ú Calculating production losses:cropandlivestockproductionlosses(interms
ofcereals,pulses,keylivestockcommodities46andothercommodities47)were
calculatedasdecreasesinyields(forcrops)andproductionquantities
(forlivestockcommodities)afterthedisasterscomparedwithlineartrend
(1980–2013)projections.
Ú Calculating changes in trade flows:changesintheperformanceofimportswere
calculatedasincreasesinthevalueofimportsintheyearofandyearfollowing
adisastercomparedwithlineartrend(1980–2011)projections.Changesin
exportswerecalculatedasdecreasesinthevalueofexportsintheyearofand
yearfollowingadisastercomparedwiththelineartrend48.Theanalysisfocused
oncereals,pulses,freshmilkandmeat.
Ú Calculating changes in agriculture value added:theanalysiscompared
decreasesintherateofagriculturevalue-addedgrowthduringtheyearwhen
disastersoccurredandthesubsequentyearwiththelineartrend(2003–2013)
projections.
42 Seeforexample:WorldBank.2014.AnálisisderiesgodelsectoragropecuarioenParaguay.Identificación,priorización,estrategiayplandeacción;IsraelandBriones.2013.ImpactsofNaturalDisastersonAgriculture,FoodSecurity,andNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentinthePhilippines.ERIADiscussionPaperSeries;CavalloandNoy.2010.TheEconomicsofNaturalDisasters.Asurvey.Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank;Loayziaetal.2009.NaturalDisastersandGrowthGoingbeyondtheAverages.WorldBank;Sivakumar.2005.ImpactsofNaturalDisastersinAgriculture,RangelandandForestry:AnOverview.In:Sivakumar,MothaandDas(eds.).NaturalDisastersandExtremeEventsinAgriculture.SpringerHiderberg.pp.1–2.
43 TheDisasterInventorySystemdatabaseprovidesaccesstonationaldataondisasterdamagefrom86countriesandterritories.Foragriculture,however,thisdatabaseonlyreportstwoindicators:(1)theamountofcultivatedorpastorallandaffected(inhectares);and(2)thenumberoffour-leggedanimalslost.Reporteddataarenotdisaggregatedbytypeofcroporanimal,andnodistinctionismadebetweenpartiallyortotallyaffectedcrop/pastoralland.Moreover,agriculturaldamageisreportedonlyin12percentofalldisastersincludedinDisasterInventorySystem,and22countriesdonotreportanyagriculturaldamagebetween2003and2013.Additionaleffortsshouldbemadetocollectprimarydataonagriculturaldamageatadetailedlevel.
44 CentralAsia,easternAsia(excludingChinaandJapan),southernAsia,southeasternAsiaandthePacific.45 AsubsetofwesternAsiancountries.46 Cattlemeat,goatmeat,pigmeat,sheepmeat,cowmilk,goatmilk,sheepmilk.47 Othercommoditieswereselectedatcountrylevelandincludeanycropcommodity(bothstapleandcash
crop)otherthancerealsandpulsesincludedintheFAOSTATlistoftop10commoditiesbyproductionquantityandproductionvaluein2012.InthecaseofdroughtinAfrica,“othercommodities”refertoanycropcommodityotherthancerealsandpulsesthatwasmentionedinofficialassessmentsasbeingaffectedbydrought.Examplesofcropsincludedunderthiscategoryare:coffee,fruits,rootsandtubers(e.g.potatoes,cassava),sugarcane,tobacco,vegetables,amongothers.
48 ChangesinimportandexportflowswereanalysedusingaggregateddataatcountrylevelfromFAOSTAT.
The statistical analysis
covered 140 medium- and
large-scale disasters
that affected
67 developing countries
CHAPTERIIQuantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade
billion
ä
USD
7
Shar
e by
type
of h
azar
dSh
are
by ty
pe o
f haz
ard
Shar
e by
type
of h
azar
dSh
are
by ty
pe o
f haz
ard
in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013
billionä
USD
48of the projected
in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013
value of production2%
billion
ä
USD
14in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013
of the projected value of production6%
billion
ä
USD
11in crop and livestocklosses 2003–2013
of the projectedvalue of production3%
of the projected
value of production7%
ä
USD
ä
USD
ä
USD
0%
50%
100%
0%
50%
100%
0%
50%
100%
0%
50%
100%
Figure 6. Losses after 140 medium- to large-scale disasters affecting more than 250,000 people alone
ASIA
NEAR EAST
AFRICA
LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN
Legend: Storms Floods Drought Earthquakes
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT
30
Floodswereassociatedwith77%oftheregion’slosses.Whiletheregionexperiencedthelargestabsoluteproductionlosses,itwasleastaffectedinrelation
totheprojectedvalueofproduction.Indiawasmostaffectedbylossesafterrecurrentfloodsfrom2004to2013,whilethePhilippines(e.g.2012Bophaand2013HaiyanTyphoons),
Pakistan(e.g.2010floods),Cambodia(e.g.2005drought)andThailand
(e.g.2008drought)werealsohard-hit
Some90%oftheregion’slossesoccurredafterdroughts,whenmostcountries
experiencedsharpdeclinesinyields,likelyleadingtolossesinoutputandrevenue.
Droughtsseverelychallengefoodavailability,rurallivelihoodsandoveralleconomies,
particularlygivenagriculture’scriticalcontributiontofoodsecurityandeconomies
insub-SaharanAfrica
Mostlossesoccurredafterfloods(55%)followedbydroughtsandstorms.Brazilwasmostaffected,
alsoduetothelargesizeofitsagriculturalproduction,following2009floodsinthenorth
ofthecountry.OtherseriouslyaffectedcountriesincludedColombia(2007,2010and2011floods),
Mexico(2005HurricaneEmily,2007Tabascofloodsand2011drought)and
Paraguay(2011–12drought)
TheNearEastwasthemostaffectedregioninrelativeterms,withmostlossesoccurringafter
the2008droughtinSyria
LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesexperiencedaboutUSD11billioninproduction
losses,mainlyafterfloods(55percentoftotallossesintheregion)andtoalesser
degreeafterdroughtsandstorms.Inrelativeterms,regionallossescorrespondedto
3percentoftheprojectedvalueofproduction–lowerthanAfricabuthigherthanAsia.
Themostaffectedcountry,alsoduetothelargesizeofitsagriculturalproduction,
wasBrazil,whichsufferedmajorlossesafterthe2009floodsinthenortheast.Other
countriessignificantlyaffectedincludedColombia,afterfloodsin2007,2010and2011;
Mexico,followingHurricaneEmilyin2005,the2007floods(Tabasco)andthe2011
drought;andParaguay,afterthe2011–2012drought.
OnlythreemajordisastersoccurredintheNearEastduringtheperiod,causing
USD7billioninproductionlossesintheaffectedcountries.Theselossesamounted
to7percentoftheprojectedvalueofproduction,makingtheNearEastcountriesthe
mostaffectedinrelativeterms.Mostlossesoccurredafterthe2008droughtinSyria.
QuantifyinglossesincaloriesThetotalproductionlossesreportedabovecorrespondto333milliontonnesof
cereals,pulses,meat,milkandothercommodities50.Themostaffectedcommodities
werecereals,whichaccountformorethanone-thirdoftotallosses.Suchsignificant
lossesincerealproductionraiseconcernsabouttheconsequencesforfoodsecurity
indevelopingcountries,whichaccountformorethan60percentofworldcereal
consumptionandderivemorethanhalfoftheirdietaryenergysupply(DES)from
cereals,rootsandtubers51.
Inordertoprovideameasureoftheamountofcalorieslostafterdisasters,losseswere
convertedfromphysicalquantitiesintocaloriesusingregionalfoodcompositiontables.
DES,whichestimatesthepercapitaamountofenergyinfoodavailableforhuman
consumption,expressedinkcalpercapitaperday,wasusedasabasisforcomparison.
Basedonthesefigures,lossesaftereachdisastercorrespond,onaverage,tonearly
7percentofpercapitaDESinthecountriesanalysed.Thisfigure(calculatedatnational
level)indicatestheshareoflossexpressedincaloriesthatwasnolongeravailable
fromdomesticproductionforhumanconsumption,withpossiblenegativeimpactson
nationalorsubnationalfoodsecurity.
Whilethefindingspresentedaboveprovideanestimationofthepotentialimpactof
disastersonfoodavailability,itshouldbenotedthatcropandlivestocklossesdonot
necessarilytranslateintoanequivalentlossofpercapitaenergysupply.Asillustrated
laterinthissection,productionshortfallsareusuallycompensatedbyanincreasein
commercialimportsandfoodaid;therefore,theoverallimpactonDESafterdisasters
maybelower.Thepresenceofstocksand/ortheincreaseinsupplyofnon-affected
commoditiescanplayanimportantroleincompensatingenergysupplylosses
resultingfromdeclinesinproduction.
QuantifyinglossesbyagriculturalcommoditygroupThe333milliontonnesofcropandlivestockcommoditieslostafterdisasterswere
convertedintomonetaryvalueandanalysedbyregioninordertobetterunderstandthe
regionaldistributionoflossesbycommoditygroup(Figure 7).Theanalysisshowsthat
therearelargelydifferingdeclinesinproductionpercommoditygroupandregion.
50 Totallossescorrespondto139milliontonnesofcereals;12milliontonnesofpulses;5milliontonnesofmeat(includingcattle,goat,pigandsheepmeat),20milliontonnesofmilk(includingcow,goatandsheepmilk),and157milliontonnesofothercommodities(e.g.coffee,tobacco,sugarcaneandselectedfruits,vegetables,rootsandtubers).
51 FAO.2015.Shareofdietaryenergysupplyderivedfromcereals,rootsandtubers.BasedonFAOFoodSecurityIndicators.
The most affected
commodities were cereals,
which account for more than
one-third of total losses
CHAPTERIIQuantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade
Near EastLatin America and the Caribbean
AsiaAfrica
9 billion
Increasein
imports
Decreasein
exports
12 billion
15 billion
6 billion
-6 billion
3 billion
-3 billion
0
6
13 13
1-1-1-1
-4
Figure 8. Decreases in exports and increases in imports after disasters analysed between 2003 and 2011 by region (in USD billion)
Source:EM-DATCRED
InAfrica,forexample,thesharpdeclineinkeystaplecerealcropssuchasmaize,milletand
sorghumafterdisasters(especiallydrought)representsamajorchallengeforfoodsecurity
andnutrition.Disasterriskreductionmeasuresshouldconsiderthetypesofcropsmost
affectedineachregionandcountry,withspecificattentiontocropsthatprovidethelargest
contributiontofoodsecurityandnutrition,aswellastorurallivelihoods.
Disaggregateddataontheimpactofdisastersonagriculturalcommoditiesisneeded
tosupportdecision-makersandrelevantstakeholdersinselectingappropriatecrop
varietiesandotherfarmingpracticesandagriculturaltechnologiesthatbuildresilience.
Changes in agricultural trade flows after disasters
Declinesinagriculturalproductionafterdisasterscantriggerchangesinagricultural
tradeflows,whichinturncanincreaseimportexpendituresandreduceexport
revenues.Section1.3presentedthewiderimpactofdisastersonmacro-economic
flows,includingonagriculturaltrade.Abroaderanalysiswasconductedof116disasters
affecting59developingcountriesbetween2003and2011todeterminetheextentto
whichchangesinagriculturalimportsandexportsareassociatedwithdisastersin
developingregions53.
ThefindingsrevealthatfoodimportsincreasedbyUSD33billionfollowingdisasters
overtheperiodconsidered,correspondingto28percentoftheprojectedvalueof
imports54.Importsincludebothcommercialfoodimportsandfoodaidshipments.
Figure 8showstheriseinagriculturalcommodityimportsbyregion.Together,Asian
andLatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesaccountforalargemajorityofincreases
inimportsassociatedwithdisasters.Suchatendencymaybeconsideredanindirect
effectoflossestodomesticproductionandconsequentriseindemandforimported
food.InthecaseofAfrica,however,thefindingsshowthatincreasesinagricultural
importsafterdisastersareproportionallylowerthanlossesindomesticproduction.
IntheUnitedRepublicofTanzania,whilecerealproductionlossesamountedto
about850000tonnesfollowingthe2006drought,cerealimportsgrewbyabout
350000tonnes,therebycompensatinglessthanhalfoflosses,withlikelynegative
consequencesonfoodavailability.
53 ThesamplesizeofcountriesanddisastersissmallerthaninSection2.2duetodataonagriculturaltradebeingavailableonlyuntil2011atthetimeofwriting.
54 Thefigureonincreasesinimportsislikelytobehigherwhenconsideringfoodaidshipmentsofalltypesofcommodities.Furthermore,limiteddataavailabilitypreventedadetailedanalysisoffoodaidshipmentsallocatedtodisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards.
Disaster risk reduction
measures should pay specific
attention to crops that
contribute most to food
security and nutrition
2.2
Figure 7showsforinstancethatcereals(especiallymaize,millet,sorghumand
wheat)arethemostaffectedcropsinAfrica,correspondingtoabout50percentof
totalproductionlossesintheregion.LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountriesmainly
experiencedlossesincashcropssuchascoffee,sugarcaneandtropicalfruits,aswell
asstaplecropslikecassavaandpotatoes.Cereals,especiallyrice,maizeandwheat,
werethemostaffectedcommoditiesinAsia,followedbylivestockandtropicalfruits,
particularlybananasandmangoes,andcassava.NearEastcountriesexperiencedthe
majorityoflossestocashcrops.
Insomecases,post-disasterfallsincerealproductionoccurredincountriesthatface
foodsecuritychallengesandderivehighsharesoffoodenergyintakefromcereals.In
Ethiopia,forexample,maizeyieldsdroppedby26percentfollowingthe2003drought.
Majorcerealproducersandexportershavealsosufferedsignificantlossesfrom
disasters.Indiaaloneaccountedformorethanone-thirdoftotalcereallossesinall
theanalysedcountries.Cashcropproductionalsodeclinedintopexportingcountries
inLatinAmerica.InBrazil,coffeeyieldsdeclinedbyupto10percentafter
the2007drought,impactinginternationalprices52.
Theanalysisshowsthatsignificantdeclinesincropandlivestockproductionare
associatedwithdisastersindevelopingcountries.Yet,thereportedfiguresarelikelyto
beunderestimatedastheanalysisfocusedonmedium-andlarge-scaledisastersand
onaselectednumberofcommodities.Itislikelythatlossesalsooccurredinother
commodities.
Inaddition,thefindingsshowthatlossesdifferintermsofaffectedcommoditygroups
andtypeofdisasteracrossregionsandcountries.Suchdifferencesshouldbetaken
intoconsiderationindevelopmentplansfortheagriculturesectorforintegrating
measuresandtargetsthatreducerisksandimprovetheresilienceofthesector.For
thisreason,thecollection,systematicreportingandin-depthanalysisofdataonthe
impactofdisastersonagricultureareessentialtosupportcontext-specificplanningfor
riskreductionandshouldbecomeacentralpriorityofnationalgovernmentsandthe
internationalcommunity.
52 http://www.ibtimes.com/droughts-brazil-west-africa-us-are-hurting-commodities-experts-say-its-only-temporary-1562843
Cereals correspond
to about 50% of
crop losses in Africa
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004–2006USD
Africa
USD 14 billion
Asia
USD 48 billion
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean
USD 11 billion
NearEast
USD 7 billion
Figure 7. Regional production losses by commodity group associated with disasters between 2003 and 2013
LegendCereals(%)
Livestock(%) Othercommodities(%)
Pulses(%)
CHAPTERIIQuantifyingproductionlosses,changesintradeflowsandsectorgrowthafterdisastersoverthepastdecade34 35
Theresultsshowsignificantdropsinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafterdisasters.
In55percentoftheeventsanalysed,adeclineinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthin
theyearofdisasterswasobserved56.Intheyearafterthedisaster,sectorgrowthwas
negativelyaffectedby83percentofallthedisastersanalysed.Onaverage,eachdisaster
eroded2.6percentofsectoralgrowth.
Thedeclineinsectorgrowthwasparticularlyremarkableaftersomeseveredroughts.
Forexample,agriculturevalue-addedgrowthinZimbabwedeclinedbyanaverage
ofabout18percentin2007and2008followingadrought.Asignificantdropin
sectorgrowthwasalsoobservedafterthe2012droughtinParaguay,withagriculture
value-addedgrowthdecliningbyanaverageof16percentin2012and2013compared
withprojectedgrowth.Thepoorerperformanceofagriculturecomparedwithlinear
growthtrendssuggeststhesectorishighlyvulnerabletothedisruptiveeffectsof
disasters,especiallyintheshortterm.
Figure 9showsthatAfricawasmostaffectedintermsofaveragedeclineinagriculture
valueadded,losing3.3percentofagriculturegrowthaftereachdisaster.Thishighlights
thesusceptibilityofAfricancountriestochangesinagriculturesectorgrowthafter
disasters.Givenagriculture’ssignificantcontributiontototalGDPintheAfrican
countriesanalysed(about25percentonaverage),suchlossesinsectorgrowthcan
negativelyaffecttheentirenationaleconomy,asillustratedinChapterI.
Overall,itisclearthatagriculturegrowthdeclinessignificantlyafterdisastersin
developingcountries.Thefindingsrepresentobservedtrendsandnotacausal
relationshipgiventhecomplexanddynamicinterplayofdomesticandinternational
factorsthatcaninfluenceagriculturegrowthduringtheyearswhendisastersoccur.
However,thereisastrongcorrelationbetweenfallingsectorgrowthanddisasters,
illustratedbythenegativetrendinagricultureGDPgrowthobservedin55percentof
thedisastersanalysed.
56 NegativeperformanceisintendedasavalueofagricultureGDPgrowthratelowerthanthelineartrendvalueintheyearofdisaster.
Inordertocomparemoreconsistentlyacrossregionalmarkets,increasesinimports
weremeasuredasashareoftheprojectedvalueofimports.Theresultsshowthat
regionaldifferencesareminor.Foreachregion,increasesinimportsafterdisasters
werebetween25and30percenthigherthanprojectedvalues.
Decreasesinexportsofcereals,pulses,milkandmeatamountedtonearly
USD7billion–abouta6percentdropintheprojectedvalueofexports.Almost
two-thirdsoftotaldeclinesoccurredinAsiancountries,representingUSD4.4billion,
mainlyduetothelargersizeofAsianexportmarkets.Onereasonforthereduction
inexportsafterdisastersmaybethediversionintradableagriculturalcommodities
towardsdomesticmarketstomeetdomesticfooddemand.Also,theimpactof
disastersonagriculturalproductionhaslikelyhadanindirectnegativeeffectonthe
amount(andvalue)ofexportedagriculturalcommodities.
Whencomparedwithprojectedexports,theanalysisshowsthattheNearEastisthe
mostaffectedregioninrelativeterms,losing42percentofprojectedexportsafter
disasters.Almostalldecreasesinexportsintheregionoccurredafterthe2008drought
inSyria.InAfrica,decreasesinexportscorrespondto26percentofprojectedexports,
whiletheshareisconsiderablylowerinAsia(6percent)andLatinAmericaandthe
Caribbean(2percent).Wecanthusconcludethatlossesinexportrevenuesmayhave
arelativelystrongernegativeimpactonthebalanceoftradeinAfricanandNearEast
countriescomparedwithAsian,LatinAmericanandCaribbeancountries.
Overall,theanalysisrevealsthatsignificantchangesinagriculturaltradeflowsoccurred
aftermedium-andlarge-scaledisastersindevelopingcountries.Apositivestatistical
correlationisfoundbetweendisastersandtradeflows.Forexample,increased
importsofcereals,pulses,meatormilkwereobservedafter95percentofthedisasters
analysed,whiledecreasedexportsofthesamecommoditiesoccurredafter89percent
ofthedisasters.Apositiverelationshipwasalsofoundbetweenproductionlossesand
fallingexports,asreductionsinexportedcommoditiesweregreaterafterdisastersthat
causedthegreatestproductionlosses.Changesintradeflowswouldlikelybemore
significantifothercommoditieswereconsidered,suchascashcropswhichcontribute
significantlytoexportrevenuesinmanydevelopingcountries.Furtheranalysisof
agriculturaltradedynamicswithincountriesmayrevealevenmoredrasticchangesin
importsandexportsoffoodproductsintheaffectedregions.
Changes in sector growth associated with disasters over the past decade
Ultimately,productionlossescanreduceagriculturevalueaddedorsectorgrowth,
withconsequencesfornationalGDPincountrieswherethesectorisakeydriverof
economicgrowth.
SeveralexamplesandcasestudieswerepresentedinChapterIinordertoillustratethe
impactofdisastersonagriculturesectorgrowth.Inthissection,abroaderassessment
wasundertakenof125disastersthataffected60developingcountriesbetween2003
and2013inordertodeterminetheextenttowhichagriculturesectorgrowthdeclined
afterdisasters55.Decreasesintherateofagriculturevalue-addedgrowthduringtheyear
whendisastersoccurredandthesubsequentyearwerecomparedwiththelineartrend
projection(2003–2013).Annexes3and5providefurtherdetailsonthecountriesand
disastersincludedinthisanalysis,aswellasonthemethodologyused.
55 DisastersthatoccurredinChad,theGambia,Israel,Kenya,Myanmar,PeruandtheSyrianArabRepublicwereexcludedfromtheanalysisduetolackofdataonagricultureGDPgrowth.
Decreases in exports of
cereals, pulses, milk and
meat amounted to nearly
USD 7 billion – about a 6%
drop in the projected value
of exports
2.3
Production losses can
reduce agricultural value
added or sector growth, with
consequences for national
GDP in countries where
the sector is a key driver of
economic growth
0-0.5%-1%-1.5%-2%-2.5%-3%-3.5%
-3.3%
-1.6%
-0.7%
-2.7%
Figure 9. Average share of agriculture value-added growth lost after disasters between 2003 and 2013, by region
Source:EM-DATCRED
Africa
Asia
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Near east
36 37Kenya,2o09HerderandhisgoatsinChalbidesert
Over 360 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were affected by droughts between 1980 and 2013
Agriculture is highly susceptible to climate variability and change. If no risk reduction and adaptation measures are put in place, enhanced exposure to drought will further compromise food security in sub-Saharan Africa
Droughtisoneoftheleast-assessednatural
hazards,despiteitsconsiderableimpactonthe
agriculturesector.Insub-SaharanAfrica,wherethe
sectorcontributesanaverageof25percentofGDP,
agriculturemusttaketheleadinmanagingrisks
associatedwithdrought
Chapter III
Droughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpactonagriculture
Total crop and livestock losses after droughts, between 1991 and 2013, cost more than USD 30 billion
©FA
O/G
iulio
Nap
olita
no
Figure 10. Total population (millions) affected by drought in sub-Saharan Africa (1980–2013) by subregion
Eastern Africa203
Southern Africa86
Western Africa74
Central Africa1
38 39
Anin-depthanalysiswascarriedouttobetterunderstandtheconsequencesof
droughtsinsub-SaharanAfrica,giventheirfrequencyandconsiderableimpacton
agriculture,livelihoodsandfoodsecurityandnutritionintheregion.
Sub-SaharanAfricahasnotyetmetthetargetssetattheWorldFoodSummitofhalving
thenumberofundernourishedpeopleby2015,northeMillenniumDevelopmentGoal
targetofhalvingtheproportionofundernourishedpeopleby2015.Infact,thenumberof
undernourishedpeopleintheregionrosefrom182millionin1990–1992to
227millionin2012–201457.
Agricultureisvitaltofoodsecurity,povertyreductionandeconomicgrowthinmanycountries
ofsub-SaharanAfrica.Over60percentoftheregion’spopulationisruralandliveslargelyoff
agriculture,whilethesectoremploysabout60percentoftheworkforce.Smallholderfarmers
accountforaboutthree-quartersoftheregion’spoorpopulation,withsmallholderfarming
comprising80percentofallfarms.In sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture contributes an average
of 25 percent of GDP, and as much as 50 percent when the agribusiness sector is included58.
Agriculture’sconsiderablecontributiontoemployment,aswellastoAfricaneconomies
makesthesectoracriticalengineofeconomicgrowthandwelfare.
However,agricultureisespeciallysusceptibletoclimatevariabilityandchange,andfrequent
droughtsintheregionlimitthesector’spotential.Theanalysispresentedinthissection
wasundertakentobetterunderstandtheconsequencesofdroughtintheregion.Given
itssignificantimpact,ensuringdrought-resilientfoodproductionsystemsinsub-Saharan
Africaisfundamentaltosustainableagricultureandnationaleconomicdevelopment.
57 FAO,2014.TheStateofFoodInsecurityintheWorld.58 Deutsche Bank,2014.Agriculturalvaluechainsinsub-SaharanAfrica.Fromadevelopmentchallengetoa
businessopportunity.
Brief overview of trends in drought and food insecurity in sub-Saharan Africa (1980–2014)
Theterm“drought”mayrefertometeorologicaldrought(precipitationwellbelow
average),hydrologicaldrought(lowriverflowsandwaterlevelsinrivers,lakesand
groundwater),agriculturaldrought(lowsoilmoisture)andenvironmentaldrought
(acombinationoftheabove)59.However,alackofdatameantthatthisstudycould
notanalysedroughteventsaccordingtotheaboveclassification.Atgloballevel,the
EM-DATCREDdatabaseistheonlypubliclyavailabledatabasethatdocumentsdrought
eventsreportedbycountries.Therefore,thedroughtsreportedinthisdatabasewere
usedfortheanalysispresentedinthischapter.Annex4showstheyearswhendroughts
werereportedinsub-SaharanAfricabetween1980and201460.
FAOanalysedthegeo-spatialandtemporaldistributionofdroughtsinsub-Saharan
Africabetween1980and2014inrelationtothepopulationsaffected.During this
period, droughts affected over 363 million people in the region, of whom 203 million
were in eastern Africa,followedbysouthernAfricawith86million,westernAfricawith
74millionandcentralAfricawithlessthan1million61.Fivecountriesaccountedfor
nearlyhalfofalldrought-affectedpopulationsintheregionsince1980:Ethiopia,Kenya,
Malawi,theNigerandSouthAfrica,totalling171millionpeople.
Comparingthefourdecadesintermsofthenumberofpeopleaffectedbydrought,
some132millionpeoplewereaffectedinthe2000scomparedwithroughly
82–90millionpeopleinthe 1980sand1990s,respectively.Intermsofthecurrent
decade,asof2014droughthasalreadyaffected59millionpeopleinAfrica,indicating
aworseningtrend.
TrendsintheHornofAfricashowhighlevelsoffoodinsecurityonanannualbasis,as
illustratedinFigure 11.Forexample,everyyearanaverageof9.6millionpeoplefaced
foodinsecurityandrequiredhumanitarianassistanceintheHornofAfricaalone.
Droughtisjustoneofseveraltypesofshocksthatproducefoodinsecurityinthe
region.AsshowninFigure 11peaksoffoodinsecurityintheHornofAfricaoccurred
inyearswhenseveralmillionpeoplewereaffectedbydroughtinthesubregion,
indicatingastrongcorrelationbetweendroughtandfoodinsecurity.Inmanycases,
thereisacomplexinteractionofcrisesthatmaycombinewithdroughttoproduce
foodinsecurity,suchassoaringandvolatilefoodprices,livestockandplantpests
anddisease,resource-basedcompetition,internalconflictandcivilinsecurity.
Theseareamongotherimportantdriversofproductionlossandfoodinsecurity,
whichcancoincidewithdroughtinagivenyear.
Damage and losses to agriculture due to drought
Droughtscausesignificantdamageandlossestoagriculture.DroughtinKenya
(2008–2011),Djibouti(2008–2011)andUganda(2010–2011)costatotalof
USD11.4billionindamageandlossestothethreecountries’agriculturesectors
andatotalofUSD13.6billiontoallsectorscombined.
59 IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange.2007.ClimateChange2007:SynthesisReport(FourthAssessmentReport-AR4).
60 ItisimportanttonotethattheEM-DATCREDhaslimitationsthatshouldbeconsidered;namelythatitrecordsonlydisastereventsthatmeetoneoffourcriteria:(i)Tenormorepeoplereportedkilled,(ii)100ormorepeoplereportedaffected,(iii)declarationofastateofemergency,and(iv)callforinternationalassistance.Thedatabasethereforedoesnotnecessarilycapturealldroughtevents.Anotherlimitationisthatthetypeofdroughtisnotreportedinthedatabase,noritsduration.Ideally,morespecificinformationwouldenableamorepreciseanalysisofdroughtimpact,forexamplethecropseasonorcalendarassociatedwithagivendrought.
61 BasedonEM-DATCRED.ThenumberofpeopleaffectedreportedinEM-DATCREDdatabasereferstothesumofinjured,homelessandpeoplerequiringimmediateassistanceduringaperiodofemergency,i.e.requiringbasicsurvivalneedssuchasfood,water,shelter,sanitationandimmediatemedicalassistance.
3.1
The number of people
affected by drought in
sub-Saharan Africa
is growing,
from 82–90 million
in the 1980s and 1990s to
132 million in the 2000s
3.2
As much as 84% of the
economic impact of drought
falls on agriculture
Source:EM-DATCRED
Somalia (drought)Kenya (drought)
Ethiopia (drought)Djibouti (drought)
9 million
12 million
6 million
3 million
0
2004 2005
77.2
8.4
4.5
11.6
13.4
10.6
13.1
10.9
9.6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Legend Population affected by drought in
Source:DataonfoodinsecurepeopleintheHornofAfricaisbasedonnationalandinternationalassessmentreports,FlashAppealsandUnitedNationsandpartners’ConsolidatedAppeals.
Informationondrought-affectedpeopleisbasedondatafromEM-DATCRED.Note:dataonfoodinsecurepeopleintheHornofAfricareferstoDjibouti,Ethiopia,KenyaandSomalia.
Figure 11. Population facing food insecurity/in need of humanitarian assistance in the Horn of Africa and population affected by drought in Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia by year (millions)
Number of people food insecure
CHAPTERIIIDroughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpactonagriculture40 41
Thissuggeststhatonaverageasmuchas84percentoftheeconomicimpactofdrought
fallsonagriculture.Theremainingimpactistypicallyonsectorssuchashealthand
nutrition,energy,waterandsanitation,amongothers.Thespecificwiderimpact caused
bythesedroughtsonfoodsecurityandtheeconomyispresentedinthenextsection.
In Uganda, the drought in 2005–2007 and rainfall deficits during 2010–2011 had a
significant impact on agriculture, with far-reaching consequences at the national level.
Agricultureaccountsforabout21percentofGDPinthecountry,66percentoftotal
employmentand46percentofexportearnings.Manufacturingaccountsforabout
20percentofGDPand40percentofthisisattributedtoagro-industries,mainlyfood
processing.The2005–2007droughtnegativelyaffectedfoodandcashcropproduction
andproductivity.Cattleandotheranimalstockswerealsoaffected,resultinginlower
availabilityofmeatandmilkproductsinto2008.Productionlossesimpactedfood
availability,raisedmarketpricesoffoodstuffsandincreasedmalnutritionratesamong
thepopulationintheaffectedareas.Productionlossesalsoresultedinlowerexports
oftraditionalcashcropssuchassugar,coffeeandtobacco,whichhadanadverse
impactonproducers’earnings.Thelossesinprimaryproductionhadasubsequent
negativeeffectonmanufacturingandtrade.
Tradershadalowerquantityofagricultureandlivestockgoodstosell.GDPgrewat
slowerratesthanexpectedduring2005–2008,byacombined3percentrateduringand
afterthedrought.Thetotalvalueoflosses,adjustedforinflationandexpressedin
2010terms,wasestimatedtobeUSD380million62.
In2010–2011,Ugandaonceagainfacedrainfalldeficits,loweringproductionand
exportsofsimilarcashcrops,whichledtofurtherlossesinthecountry’sagro-industry
sector,particularlysugar,coffee,tea,tobaccoandgrainsprocessing.Livestock,
especiallycattle,wasaffectedbywaterandfeedscarcityanddisease,whichresultedin
productionlossesinmeatandmilk.MostoftheimpactonlivestockwasinKaramoja
region,oneofthemostimportantareasforlivestockproductioninUgandaandwhere
mostlivestockownersandpastoralistshaveverylowpercapitaincomes.Commerce
wasindirectlyaffectedbythelowerquantityofagriculturalgoodssoldandbyincreases
inpricesofthesegoodsduetoscarcityandspeculation.Thelossessustainedinfood
processinghadanegativeimpactonUganda’sexportsandbalanceofpaymentsin
both2010and2011.Overall,77percentofthetotalUSD907millionindamageand
lossescausedbythedroughtfellontheagriculturesector,whichinpartexplainsthe
largecascadingeffectithadonthenationaleconomy.Thetotaldamageandlosses
wereequivalentto7.5percentofthecountry’sGDPin2010.Isolatedfromotherfactors,
therainfalldeficitshadanestimatedimpactof3.5percentonGDPgrowthfor2010
and2011combined63.
Wider impact of drought
ChapterIillustratedhowandtowhatextenttheimpactofdisastersonagricultural
productionaffectslivelihoodsandfoodsecurity,andhasacascadingeffectacrossthe
foodandagriculturevaluechainandonmanufacturing,whichresonatesonnational
economies.Asimilaranalysisofthewiderimpactofdroughtindicatesamuchmore
significantimpactinsub-SaharanAfricacomparedwithothertypesofdisasters.
62 GovernmentofUganda.2012.The2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.
63 GovernmentofUganda.2012.The2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.Note:whererequired,theexchangerateusedwas:UGX2450perUSD1.
Livestock production in
Uganda’s Karamoja region
absorbed most of the impact
of the 2010–2011
rainfall deficits
3.3
ThiscanbeseenintheHornofAfrica,wheredroughtandrainfalldeficitsaffected
variousareasbetween2008and2011.Theseveredroughtcrisisthatgrippedthe
regionby2011broughtfoodinsecurityto15.5millionpeoplewhoneededhumanitarian
assistance,andasmanyas2.3millionchildrenwereacutelymalnourished,while
over560000weresufferingfromacutemalnutrition64.
InDjibouti,thedroughtaffectedover120000people–50percentoftherural
populationand15percentofthetotalpopulation65.Agriculturalproductionand
livestocklossesledtoseverefoodinsecurityinruralareas.
Thedroughtcauseda25percentdeclineinfoodconsumption(equaltoa20percent
lossinkcalperhousehold)anda50percentdecreaseintheconsumptionofgoods
andservicessuchaseducationandhealth.Thedroughtcausedanestimated
USD209millionintotaldamageandlossesbetween2008and2011.
Cropandlivestocklossesamountedto41percentofthesector’sGDP,whichproduced
aGDPaverageyearlydeflectionof3.9percentovertheperiod.Thecountry’scurrent
accountbalanceincreasedannuallyby2.7percentofGDPbetween2008and201166.
In Kenya, the drought caused nearly USD 11 billion in damage and losses to
agriculture, equal to 85 percent of the total economic impact.Losseswerefeltin
thefoodprocessingindustry,leadingtolowerexports,andsectorgrowthfell
to-5percentin2008and-2.3percentin2009,withnegativeconsequences
fornationalGDP67.
The1991/92droughtaffectingsouthernAfricafurtherillustratesthecomplexityand
far-reachingeffectofdroughtsonagriculture,foodsecurityandnationaleconomies.
ManypartsofsouthernAfricareceivedlessthan75percentoftheiraveragerainfall
and70percentofthecropsfailed,affectingtencountriesintheSouthernAfrican
DevelopmentCommunity.Atotalof86millionpeoplewereaffected,about72percent
ofthepopulation,20millionofwhomwereatseriousriskofstarvation68.Althoughthe
regionwasanetexporteroffood,southernAfricaimported11.6milliontonnesoffood
betweenApril1992andJune1993–sixtimeshigherthanthenormalvolumeofimports
inthesubregion69.
InSouthAfrica,thedroughtresultedinthelossof49000agriculturaljobsand
20000formaljobsinnon-agriculturalsectors.Maizeimportswererequireduntil1995,
whilemaizeexportearningsfell,withfurtherdeclinesinotheragriculturalexportsand
inexportsfromrelatedsectors.AgriculturalGDPdeclinedby27percentandnational
GDPby2.4percent.Inthemanufacturingsector,outputdeclinedby3.3percent.
Consumerexpenditurefellby0.9percentandgrossdomesticsavingsby8.4percent70.
64 FAOGlobalInformationandEarlyWarningSystems.2011.CropProspectsandFoodSituation.65 Thisissaidtobeaconservativeestimateandtheaffectedpopulationmayhavebeenashighas
245000people,seeforexamplePDNAataGlance.66 RepublicofDjibouti,WorldBank,UnitedNationsandEuropeanUnion.2011.EvaluationdesDommages,
PertesetBesoinsSuiteàlaSécheresseenRépubliquedeDjibouti.67 RepublicofKenyawithtechnicalsupportfromtheEuropeanUnion,UnitedNationsandWorldBank.2012.68 Buckland,R.,Eele,G.,andMugwara,R.2000.Humanitarian crisis and natural disasters: A SADC perspective.
In:Clay,E.andStokke,O.(eds)Food aid and human security.EuropeanAssociationofDevelopmentResearch.London:FrankCasspublishers.
69 InternationalFederationofRedCrossandRedCrescentSocieties(IFRC),WorldDisastersReport1994;TheSternReview:theEconomicsofClimateChange;BensonCandClayE.,1994,Theimpactofdroughtonsub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,OverseasDevelopmentInstitute(ODI)WorkingPaper77;InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF).2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;Glantz,M.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.
70 IFRC,WorldDisastersReport1994;TheSternReview:theEconomicsofClimateChange;BensonCandClayE.,1994,Theimpactofdroughtonsub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77;IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;GlantzM.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.
In Djibouti, the severe
drought crisis of 2011 affected
half of the rural population
and caused a 25% decline
in food consumption
The 1991/92 drought in
southern Africa affected
72% of the population
resulting in a six times higher
than normal volume of
food imports
Electricity
Rainfalldeficitsraisedthecostsofelectricity
generationforUganda.Comparedto2009,
theshareofhydropowergenerationdecreased
by2%in2010andbynearly4%in2011.Atthe
sametime,bagasseelectricitygenerationatsugar
millsdeclinedby10%in2010andbyafurther
40%in2011duetolackofsugarcaneavailability
Agricultural production
Damageandlossesintheagriculturesectorwas
USD907million,accountingfor77%oftotal
damageandlossesacrossalleconomicsectors.
Withinthesectorlivestocksustained52%ofthe
impactandcrops48%
Commerce/trade
Thelossessustainedintheprocessingof
sugar,coffee,andteaandtobaccohada
negativeimpactonUganda’sexportsand
balanceofpaymentsin2010–2011.The
commerceortradesectorwasindirectly
affectedbylowerquantityofagricultural
goodssold,andincreasesinpricesofthe
samegoods.Lowersalesinthesectorwere
estimatedatUSD16millionin2010and
2011.Itwasfurtherestimatedthatgainswere
obtainedbythetradersduetothehigherunit
pricesofthoseproductsinthetwoyears.
Totallossesforthecommercesectorwere
thusestimatedasUSD69.4millionin
2010–2011.Commercesustained7%ofall
damageandlosses
Agro-industry
Agro-industrylosseswereUSD113.5million
invalueasaresultofprimaryproduction
lossesintheagriculturesector,causing
furtherproductionorprocessinglosses,
particularlysugar,coffee,tea,tobaccoand
grainsprocessing.Agro-industrysustained
10%oftotaldamageandlosses
Food shortages
2010–2011DROUGHT
Prices
Ugandafacedhigher-than-normalpricesof
basicfoodproducts,causedbyfoodscarcity
andindirectlybyspeculationfromtraders.
Foodcropsinflationincreasedto29%,
upfrom1.5%inJanuary2011
UGANDA The sector-wide and economic impact of the 2010–2011 rainfall deficit
InUganda,agricultureaccountsforabout21%ofGDP,46%ofexportearningsand66%oftotal
employment.Coffeeisthemostimportantexportcrop.Manufacturingaccountsforabout20%ofGDP,
and40%ofthisisattributedtoagro-industry,mainlyfoodprocessing.
Imports/exports
Thelowerproductionofcash
cropsresultedinloweramounts
ofexports,particularlysugar,
coffee,teaandtobacco.
Inaddition,higherfuelimports
wereneededtoproducemore
electricityusingthermalpower
plantsasasubstitutefor
hydroelectricproduction
Total damage and losses, and GDP
Theestimatedimpactoftherainfalldeficit,isolatedfromotherfactors,was1.8%in2010and1.7%in
2011,oracombinedfigureof3.5%ofGDPgrowthforthetwoyears
Thevalueofdamageandlossesin2010–2011wasestimatedatUSD1.2billion,whichisequivalentto
7.5%ofthecountry’sGDPin2010
Deficit and balance of payments
Itwasestimatedthatthecurrentgovernment
deficitin2010wouldhavebeen7.5%lowerand
theexpectedsurplusfor2011wouldhavebeen
7.1%higheriftherainfalldeficit
hadnotoccurredduetolowertaxrevenues
arisingfromproductionlossesandhigher
expendituresonrelief.
Itwasestimatedthatiftherainfalldeficithad
notoccurred,Ugandawouldhaveexperienceda
2.5%improvementinitsbalanceofpaymentsin
2010andasimilarpositiveimpactin2011
Expenditures
Theprovisionoffoodassistanceby
thegovernmentcostUSD6.9million
Therecoveryfromthedroughtwas
estimatedtocostUSD173million
Food insecurity
Asaresultofthe
drought,669000
peoplefacedfood
insecurityin
thecountry
Poverty
Themostsevereeffectsoftherainfalldeficits
occurredindistrictswiththelowesthuman
developmentconditions,whichsuggeststhat
povertymayhavebeenaggravatedbythe
rainfalldeficits
Source:FAO,basedonGovernmentofUganda,2012,the2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,
NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.Note:Exchangerateused:2,450shillingsperUSD.
3.8
1.8
0.5
0.8 0.050.9
-1 billion
1 billion
2 billion
3 billion
4 billion
Increasein
imports
Eastern Africa Southern Africa Western Africa
Decreasein
exports
0
Figure 13. Changes in trade flows after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, by subregion (USD billion)
45
The1991/92droughtalsohadasignificantimpactinZimbabwe.Productionlossesin
maize,cottonandsugarcanenegativelyaffectedagroprocessingandtextiles,causing
manufacturingoutputtofallby9percentbytheendof1992anda6percentreduction
inforeigncurrencyreceiptsfrommanufacturedexports.Agriculturesectorgrowthin
Zimbabwefellby23percentinrealtermsin1992andthecountry’srealGDPby
9percent.Thecurrentaccountdeficitdoubledfrom6to12percentofGDPinthe
sameperiod,andtheincreasewasfinancedmainlywithhigherborrowing.Thecountry
receivedexternaldebtrelief,increasingexternaldebtasapercentageofGDP
from36percentin1991to60percentin1992,andto75percentby199571.
By1992,5.6millionpeople(halfthepopulation)hadregisteredfordroughtreliefand
1.5millionchildrenundereightyearsofagereceivedsupplementaryfeeding.Bothchild
malnutritionandthenumberofchildrenwithlowbirthweightworsened.Employment
wasrelativelystable,butrealwagesdeclinedby23percentin1992,and42percentin
agriculture72.
71 IFRC,WorldDisastersReport1994;TheSternReview:theEconomicsofClimateChange;BensonCandClayE.,1994,TheimpactofdroughtonSub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77;IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;GlantzM.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.
72 IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks;Benson,C.andClay,E.1994.Theimpactofdroughtonsub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77;Glantz,M.H.,etal.1997.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation;Kinsey,B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.
Quantifying losses after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa (1991–2013)
Thestudyassessedthelevelofproductionlossesassociatedwithdroughtin
sub-SaharanAfricabetween1991and2013,providinglonger-termtrendsacross
thesubregions.ThemethoddescribedinChapterIIwasappliedhere,focusingon
medium-andlarge-scaledroughteventsthataffected250000peopleormoreduring
theperiod73.Thestudyfocusedoncereals,pulsesandkeylivestockcommodities74,
analysingproductivityandproductiontimeseriesatthecountrylevel.
Thefindingsreportedrefertotheproductionlossesassociatedwithdroughts.
Insomecountriesandyears,otherfactorsmayhavealsoinfluencedtheperformanceof
productionincludingsoaringfoodprices,plantandanimalpestsanddiseases,conflict
andinternalinsecurity,amongotherpotentialdrivers.
Cropandlivestockproductionlossesduetodroughtinsub-SaharanAfrica(1991–2013)Total crop and livestock production losses after droughts were equivalent to about
USD 31billion between 1991 and 2013 in sub-Saharan Africa,ofwhichmorethanhalf,
orUSD16billion,werecereallosses.AsshowninFigure 12,eastern Africa was the
most affected by production losses, which reached about USD 19billion,followedby
southernandwesternAfrica.
Inordertoanalysethesefiguresinrelativeterms,totallosseswerecomparedwith
theprojectedvalueofproduction,i.e.thevalueofcommoditiesthatwouldhavebeen
producedhadyieldsandproductionquantitiesfollowedlineartrends.Theresultsshow
thatcerealsandpulseswerethemostaffectedcommoditygroups,withproduction
droppingby8percentand22percent,respectively.Thiswasfollowedbylivestock
commodities,whichfaceda7percentdeclineinproductionafterthedroughts.
Inphysicalterms,productionlosseswereequalto76milliontonnesofcereals,pulses
andlivestockcommodities.Theselosseswereconvertedintocalorielossesinorderto
provideameasureofdroughtimpactsonDES.Lossesincaloriesareexpressedasthe
averageshareofDESpercapitalostaftereachdrought.
On average, 8 percent of per capita DES was lost after each drought in sub-Saharan
Africa between 1991 and 2013.SouthernAfricawasthemostaffectedsubregion,
followedbywesternandeasternAfrica.
ImpactofdroughtonagriculturaltradeflowsandsectorgrowthTheperformanceoftradeflowsinrelationtodroughtinsub-SaharanAfricawasalso
analysedtodeterminechangesinimportsandexports75.Theanalysisappliedthe
methoddescribedinChapterIIandconsideredthefollowingcommodities:cereals,
pulses,freshmilkandmeat.Theindicatorsusedfortheanalysiswere:(i)annualvalue
ofimports;and(ii)annualvalueofexports,aggregatedbycommoditygroup.The
analysisoftradeflowsfocusesondroughtsthattookplacebetween1991and2011,
whiletheanalysisofsectorgrowthfocusesondroughtsthattookplacebetween
2003and2013,giventhelackofdata.
73 Thetimespanoftheanalysis(1991–2013)wasbasedonproducerpricedatainFAOSTAT,whichisnotavailableforthe1980s.Thereforetheanalysisincludes27sub-SaharanAfricancountriesreportedashavingdroughtsduringtheperiod,including:Angola,BurkinaFaso,Burundi,Chad,Djibouti,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gambia,Kenya,Lesotho,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mozambique,Namibia,theNiger,Rwanda,Senegal,Somalia,SouthAfrica,theSudan,Swaziland,theUnitedRepublicofTanzania,Uganda,ZambiaandZimbabwe.
74 Inadditiontocereals,pulsesandlivestockcommodities,theassessmentfocusedonstapleandcashcropsspecificallymentionedincountryassessments(e.g.PDNAs,CropandFoodSecurityAssessmentMissionsandEmergencyFoodSecurityAssessments)asbeingaffectedbydrought.
75 Dataontradeflowswasnotavailablefor2012and2013atthetimeofwriting.
3.4
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
LegendCereal
Livestock
Pulses
10 15 2050
8.4
6 3.1
0.4
1.8 0.9
0.3
2.3 8.1
Figure 12. Cereal, pulse and livestock production losses after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, by subregion (USD billion)
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004-2006USD.
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004-2006USD
CHAPTERIIIDroughtinsub-SaharanAfrica–anin-depthanalysisoftheimpactonagriculture46 47
The findings show that food imports increased and food exports decreased after
droughts in sub-Saharan Africa.Thetotalvalueofimportsofcereals,pulses,milkand
meatincreasedbyUSD6billion,correspondingtomorethan9percentofthetotal
valueofagriculturalimportsinthecountriesanalysed.Thetotalvalueofexportsfor
thesamecommoditygroupsdecreasedbyalmostUSD2billion,correspondingto
2.5percentofthetotalvalueofagriculturalexports.
Changesintradeflowsbysubregion(Figure 13)revealedthateasternAfricawasthe
mostaffectedbybothincreasesinimportsanddecreasesinexports,followedby
southernandwesternAfrica.Majorchangesoccurred,especiallyineasternAfrican
countries,afterdroughtsbetween2008and2011,aswellasinZimbabwe(after
droughtsin1991and2010)andSouthAfrica(afterdroughtsin1995and2004).
Whentheperformanceofsectorgrowthwasexaminedinrelationtodroughts
insub-SaharanAfricaoverthedecade2003to2013,theresultsshowthat
affected countries have lost an average of 3.5 percent of agriculture value-added
growth after each drought.Africawasmostaffectedintermsofaveragedeclinein
agriculturevalueadded,losing3.3percentofagriculturegrowthaftereachdisaster.
AsshowninFigure14,WesternandSouthernAfricancountrieswerethemostaffected,
losing4.1percentofagriculturegrowthonaverageaftereachdisaster.Thedropin
sectorgrowthwasveryhighincountrieslikeAngola,whichlostabout17percent
ofsectorgrowthonaveragein2012and2013afterthe2012drought,Namibia,where
sectorgrowthdeclinedby12percentafterthe2013droughtcomparedwithprojections,
andSenegal,whichlost9percentofsectorgrowthonaveragein2003and2004
followingthe2003drought.
TheexamplesofEthiopiaandKenyaillustratetherelationshipbetweendroughts,
agriculturesectorgrowthandnationalGDP.InKenya,between1980and2013,agriculture
growthfluctuatedthroughouttheperiodbutshowednegativepeaksinyearswhen
droughtsoccurredand/orthesubsequentyear.AsshowninFigure 15,thedropinsector
growthcoincidedwithmostdroughtyearswiththeexceptionof1994.Agricultureis
importanttoKenya’snationaleconomy,contributinganaverageofabout30percent
ofGDPduringtheperiod.Thisisclearlyreflectedinthestrongrelationshipbetween
agricultureGDPandnationalGDPperformance.
InEthiopia,therewasalsoanegativetrendinagriculturegrowthfollowingdroughts,
especiallythedroughtsreportedin1983,1987,1997/98and2003.Thegreatestdropin
growthoccurredin1984/85followingthe1983drought.Droughtwasreportedduring
fiveyearsbetween2004and2012.
Thisperiodwitnessedagradualslowdowninagriculturegrowth,althoughlesssevere
thanduringpreviousdroughts.TheimpactofdroughtsonEthiopia’sagriculture
hasadirectnegativeeffectontheperformanceofthecountry’sGDP.Asreflectedin
Figure16,thereisastrongcorrelationbetweenagriculturegrowthandGDPgrowth.
ThisisunderstandablegiventheimportanceofthesectorinEthiopia,whereit
contributedbetween40and58percentofthecountry’sGDPfrom1980to2012.
Droughtsjeopardizeagriculturalproductioninsub-SaharanAfrica,withsevere
consequencesforfoodsecurityandnutrition,andfornationaleconomiesthatare
largelybasedontheagriculturesector.Thefindingsofthisin-depthanalysiscallfor
furthermainstreamingofdroughtriskmanagementinthedevelopmentplansof
drought-affectedcountriesintheregion.Governmentsinsub-SaharanAfricahave
alreadystartedbuildingtheinstitutionalandpolicyframeworksnecessarytoaddress
disasterrisksinacomprehensiveway.TheAfricanRiskCapacity,forexample,was
establishedasaSpecializedAgencyoftheAfricanUnionto“helpMemberStates
improvetheircapacitiestobetterplan,prepareandrespondtoextremeweatherevents
In Angola, agriculture sector
growth fell by 17%
after the 2012 drought
The agriculture sector
contributed 40–58% of
national GDP in Ethiopia
from 1980 to 2012
2013
2012
2011
2010
200
9
200
8
200
7
200
6
200
5
200
4
200
3
200
2
200
1
200
0
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
LegendGDP annual growth (%) Major
droughtAgriculture, value added annual growth (%)
20%
15%
5%
10%
0
-5%
-10%
-15%
-25%
-20%
Figure 16. Ethiopia – GDP growth and agriculture value-added growth in relation to major droughts
Source:FAO,basedonWorldDevelopmentIndicators
andnaturaldisasters,thereforeprotectingthefoodsecurityoftheir
vulnerablepopulations”76.
Theseencouraginginitiativeswouldfurtherbenefitfrommorecomprehensiveanalysis
ofdroughtimpactonthesector,foodvaluechain,manufacturingandnational
economies,aswellassystematicmonitoringandreportingoftheimpactofdroughts
insub-SaharanAfricaisneededtoensurethatcontext-specific,evidence-based
measuresaretakentoenhancetheresilienceofagricultureinthefaceofrecurringand
progressivelyincreasingdroughtevents.
76 www.africanriskcapacity.org
Eastern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
0-0.5%-1%-1.5%-2%-2.5%-3%4% -3.5%
-4.1%
-4.1%
-2.8%
Figure 14. Average annual share of agriculture value-added growth lost after droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, by subregion
Source:FAO,basedonFAOSTAT.Pricesinconstant2004–2006USD
LegendGDP annual growth (%) Major
droughtAgriculture, value added annual growth (%)
2013
2012
2011
2010
200
9
200
8
200
7
200
6
200
5
200
4
200
3
200
2
200
1
200
0
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
5%
10%
5%
0
Figure 15. Kenya – GDP growth and agriculture value-added growth in relation to major droughts
Source:FAO,basedonWorldDevelopmentIndicators
48 49
Achieving food security and the eradication of hunger in developing countries is compromised when disasters reduce the availability of food, cause unemployment and income loss, inflate food prices and restrict people’s access to food
Maldives2005tsunamirecovery
The new 2015 international commitments recognize the large impact of disasters and call for urgent action
It is necessary to anchor resilience and risk reduction in agriculture development plans and investments in order to reduce damage and losses and build resilience in food production systems
Damageandlossesonagriculturedueto
disastersneedtobebetterrecordedatthe
countrylevelinnationaldisasterlossdatabases
Chapter IV
Corefindings,conclusions
andthewayforward
©FA
O/P
raka
shS
ingh
CHAPTERIVCorefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward50 51
Summary of core findings
Despiteexistingdatagaps,thestudyappliedvariousapproachesandmethodologies
toassessdisasterimpactonagricultureindevelopingcountries.Thefindingsprovide
newinsightsintotrendsindamageandlosses,approximationsofquantifiedlosses
overthepastdecadeandthewiderimplicationsforlivelihoodsandnationaleconomies.
Thestudyshedsfurtherlighton“whatisatstake”whenitcomestotherealcostof
disasterstoagriculture.
Someofthestudy’skeyfindingsinclude:
Ú Theeconomicimpactofdisastersonagricultureisnotyetwellenough
understoodorreported.Limitedstatisticsareavailableattheglobal,regional
andnationallevels,whilealackofreportingatthecountrylevelfurtherlimits
theavailabilityofdata.Thisisparticularlythecaseforthefisheries,forestryand
naturalresourcessubsectors.
Ú Fortheagriculturesectorinparticular,indirectlosses(i.e.post-disaster
productionlossesandchangesineconomicflows)areonaveragehigherthan
directdamage(i.e.destructionofphysicalagriculturalassetsandinfrastructure)
causedbydisasters.
Ú Differenttypesofdisastershavesignificantlydifferingeffectsontheagriculture
sectoranditssubsectors,andacrosscountriesandregions,whichrequires
tailoredriskreductioninterventionsintermsofpolicy,planningandfinancial
investmentsinpreventionandsustainablepost-disasterrecoveryresponses.
Ú One-quarteroftheeconomicimpactofclimate-relateddisastersdirectly
affectstheagriculturesector.Inthecaseofdroughts,asmuchas84percent
ofresultingdamageandlossesaretothesector.
Ú AtleastUSD80billionincropandlivestockproductionhasbeenlostin
developingcountriesoverthepastdecadeafterdisasters.
Ú Theseproductionlossescorrespondto333milliontonnesofcereals,pulses,
meat,milkandothercommodities,whichhasdirectimplicationsforfood
securityindevelopingcountries.Theproductionlossescorrespondtoan
average7percentlossinDESavailablepercapitainthecountriesaffected.
Ú Whendisastersaffecttheagriculturesector,theycanhavefar-reaching
negativeconsequencesbeyondphysicaldamage;they:(i)lowerproductionand
productivity;(ii)decreaseexportsofagriculturalcommoditiesandincreasefood
imports,causingandesequilibriuminthebalanceoftradeandinthebalance
ofpaymentsinaffectedcountries;and(iii)arrestagriculturesectorgrowthand
thesustainabledevelopmentofthesector.Inaddition,productionlossescan
directlyimpactonmanufacturingsuchasonagro-industriesthatdependon
agriculturalcommoditiesandrawmaterials.Thiswiderimpactcanderailsector
growthandresonateacrossnationaleconomies.
Ú Morethanone-thirdofalldevelopingcountrieshavebeenaffectedbyatleast
threemedium-orlarge-scaledisastersbetween2003and2013.Recurrent
disasterscontinuallycausedamageandlossestoagriculture,undermining
sustainableagriculture,growthandfoodsecurity.
Ú Achievingsustainableagriculturaldevelopmentandfoodsecurityisatserious
riskincountrieswithrecurrentdisastersandwheretheagriculturesectordrives
economicgrowthandprosperity,employingandfeedingthemajorityofthe
vulnerablepopulationsaffected.
4.1 Financial resource flows to the agriculture sector and to disaster risk reduction
Reviewingthesecorefindingscallsforananalysisofthefinancialresourceflowsto
theagriculturesector,inrelationtogovernmentexpenditure,officialdevelopment
assistanceandhumanitarianaid77.Thereareseveralreportsanddatasetsthatexamine
financialflowstoagricultureand,separately,financialflowstodisasterriskreduction.
Theyindicatethatdespitetrendsinrisinghumanandeconomiclosses,growthin
fundingfordisastershasbeenmoderateoverthelasttwodecades.Basedondatafrom
theDisasterAidTrackingdatabase,whichincludesex-anteandex-postdisaster-related
developmentandhumanitarianaidfrompublicandprivatedonors,ODIreported
thattheshareallocatedtodisasterriskreductionacrossallsectorswasparticularly
lowbetween1991and2010,correspondingtoanaverageof0.4percentoftotal
developmentassistance78.
However,thereisnocomprehensivestudyonthelinksbetweendisasterimpacton
agricultureandinvestmentsmadeinriskreductionwithinthesector.
Intheabsenceofthis,thefollowingisasummaryoffinancialresourceflowsunder
differentfundingstreams79totheagriculturesectoranddisasterriskreductionand
managementinthecontextofnaturalhazards.
HumanitarianaidBetween2003and2013,roughlyUSD121billionwasspentonhumanitarianassistance
foralltypesofdisastersandcrises80.About3.4percentwasdirectedtotheagriculture
sector,averagingaboutUSD374millionannually81.
Inthesameperiod,aboutUSD20billionwasallocatedtoallsectorsforhumanitarian
assistanceafterdisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazards–aboutUSD1.8billionper
year82.Alonetheestimatedcropandlivestockproductionlossesrecordedafterthe
140analyseddisasterstriggeredbynaturalhazardsindevelopingcountriesamounted
toUSD80billionormorethanUSD7billionperyearoverthesameperiod83.
OfficialdevelopmentassistanceOnly 4.2 percent of total official development assistance was spent on agriculture between
2003 and 2012 – less than half of the United Nations target of 10 percent. On average, the
sector received less than USD 6 billion per year between 2003 and 201284.Development
fundingrepresentsanessentialresourceflowforenhancingresiliencetodrivethe
sustainabledevelopmentofagriculture.Thegapbetweenallocationandtargetsoverthe
lastdecadecallsforincreasedfundingtoagriculturalrisk-sensitivedevelopment,especially
giventheincreasingimpactofdisasters,particularlythoserelatedtoclimate.
77 Privatesectorinvestmentsrepresentanessentialcontributiontoagriculturaldevelopment.Forthepurposeofthisreport,however,theanalysisoffinancialflowsfocusedonlyongovernmentspending,officialdevelopmentassistanceandhumanitarianaid,
78 ODI.2015.Financing for disaster risk reduction. Ten things to know.79 Whencomparingfinancialflowstoagriculturewithdisasterdamageandlossestoagriculture,itmustbe
notedthattheformerincludestheprovisionofagriculturalinputsforcropsthatareexpectedtogeneratevalueaddedthroughoutthedifferentphasesofproduction.Also,agriculturemaybenefitindirectlyfromresourcesallocatedtoothersectors.Forexample,fundsallocatedtothehealthsectormaybringbenefitstopopulationsdependingonagriculture,whichtranslateintobenefitsfortheagriculturesector.
80 DatabasedontheUnitedNationsOfficefortheCoordinationofHumanitarianAssistanceFinancialTrackingService.Datareferstoallcrises.
81 DatabasedonFinancialTrackingService.Datareferstoallcrises.82 DatabasedonFinancialTrackingService.Datareferstonaturalhazardsonly.83 Estimatedcropandlivestockproductionlossesarelikelytobeconservativeastheanalysisfocusedon
selectedcommoditiesaffectedbymedium-andlarge-scaledisasters.Furthermore,fisheriesandforestryproductionlossesafterdisastersarenotincludedintheestimationofproductionlosses.
84 DatabasedontheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)CreditorReportingSystem.Officialdevelopmentassistanceisfromalldonorstoalldevelopingcountriesinconstant2012prices.
4.2
Despite trends in rising
human and economic
losses, growth in funding for
disasters has been moderate
over the last two decades
Just 3.4% of the estimated
USD 121 billion spent on
humanitarian aid between
2003 and 2013 was directed
to the agriculture sector
CHAPTERIVCorefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward52 53
GovernmentexpenditureAlthough,globally,governmentspendingonagricultureincreasedfrom1980to2007,
agriculturalexpenditureasashareoftotalpublicexpenditurehasshowntheopposite
trendinallregionsexceptEuropeandCentralAsia85.InAfricancountries,despite
theseveredamageandlossescausedbydroughttoagricultureandwiderimpacton
nationaleconomies,agriculture’sshareofgovernmentspendingwasabout3–6percent
(2003to2007),lowerthanthe10percent(exceptinthe1980s)targettowhichAfrican
governmentsagreedin2003whensigningtheMaputoDeclaration86.Muchhigher
investmentsshouldbeexpectedincountrieswhereagricultureisavitalsourceof
livelihoods,income,employmentandfood,akeydriverofeconomicprosperity,and
wheredisastersstuntsectorandnationaleconomicgrowth,andconsequentlyarrest
progressineliminatinghunger,foodinsecurityandpoverty.
Asillustratedinthisstudy,disasters exact a heavy toll on the agriculture sector in
developing countries, as they often affect agricultural production with cascading negative
consequences for national economies.Atthesametime,theabove-mentionedtrends
suggestthatthesectorreceivedarelativelylowshareoftotalresourceflowsoverthe
analysedperiod.However,furtheranalysisisneededtomakeameaningfulcomparison
betweenresourceflowstoagricultureandtheimpactofdisastersonthesector.
Enhancedcoherenceandsynergiesbetweenhumanitarian,developmentand
governmentinvestmentareneededtoeffectivelyenhancetheresilienceofagriculture
andaddresstheunderlyingdriversofrisksaffectingfarmers,pastoralists,fishersand
forest-andtree-dependentpeople,eventuallypreventingand/ormitigatingthedamage
andlossescausedbydisasterstoagriculture.Furtherworkisneededtoquantifythe
cost-benefitratioofinvestingindisasterriskreductioninagriculturecomparedwith:
(i)otherkindsofagriculturesectorinvestments;and(ii)post-disastersupporttothe
sector.Thereissomeevidencetosuggestthatinvestingindisasterriskreductionin
agricultureismorecost-effectiveintermsofreducingtheimpactofnaturalhazards
thanotherkindsofinvestments87;however,theevidencebaseforthismustbe
strengthenedinordertopresentaconvincingcase.
85 BasedontheStatisticsforPublicExpenditureforEconomicDevelopmentdatabasefromtheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,whichcovers67countries–13ofthesearehigh-incomenon-OECDcountriesand54areclassifiedaslow-ormiddle-incomecountries.
86 AfricanUnion.2003.MaputoDeclarationonAgricultureandFoodSecurityinAfrica.87 ODIandWorldBank,2015.Unlockingthetripledividendofresilience.Whyinvestingindisasterrisk
managementpaysoff;Kelman.2012.DisasterMitigationisCost-Effective.WorldDevelopmentReport:BackgroundPaper;Vorhies.2012.TheEconomicsofInvestinginDisasterRiskReduction.WorkingpaperbasedonareviewofthecurrentliteraturecommissionedbyUNISDR.Geneva:SecretariattotheUnitedNationsInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction.
In African countries,
agriculture represented
just 3–6% of government
spending depsite the severe
damage and losses caused by
disasters to the sector
Enhanced coherence between
humanitarian, development
and government investment
is needed to effectively
enhance the resillience
of agriculture
Conclusions, recommendations and the way forward
Whilethisstudyhelpstofillinformationgapsregardingtheimpactofdisasterson
agriculture,twocorechallengesneedtobeaddressed:(i)improvinginformation
systemsattheglobal,nationalandlocallevels;and(ii)furtherstrengtheningresilience
throughhigherinvestmentsinagriculture.
ImprovinginformationsystemsondisasterimpactforagricultureÚ Addressandovercomethestillsignificantdatagapsattheglobal,regional,
nationalandsubnationallevelsinordertogainafullandcoherent
understandingofthemagnitudeanddiversityofdisasterimpactonagriculture
anditssubsectors,andtobetterinformresilientandsustainablesectoral
developmentplanning,implementationandfundingandthedevelopment
ofinnovativeriskinsuranceschemesforagricultureandrurallivelihoods.
Ú Improveglobalandregionaldatabasesandinformationsystemsbasedon
nationaldata.Themethodologyforassessingimpactonthesectorshouldbe
improvedtobettercapturethefullextentofdisasterimpactonagriculture,its
subsectors,thefoodvaluechain,foodsecurity,environment/naturalresources/
ecosystemservicesassociatedwiththesector,andnationaleconomies.
Thisprecisionisnecessaryfortheformulationofwell-tailoredpolicies
andinvestmentsinthesector.
Ú Betterrecordandstandardizedatacollection,monitoringandreportingat
thecountrylevel,includingatthesubnationallevel.Similarly,adviseonthe
capacityavailabletodoso,whichmustbestrengthenedforgeneraldisasterrisk
managementandagriculturesectorriskmanagement.Thiscanbeachieved
throughcollaborationamongrelevantnationalinstitutionssuchasMinistries
ofAgriculture,ForestryandFisheriesandtheirdepartments,National
EmergencyManagementAgenciesandNationalBureauofStatistics.
Ú Attheglobalandnationallevels,systematicallyusedamageandloss
informationtomonitorandmeasureprogressinachievingtheresiliencegoals
andtargetsoftheSDGs,theSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction
2015–2030,andtheUniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisexpected
undertheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.
4.3
CHAPTERIVCorefindings,conclusionsandthewayforward54 55
StrengtheningresiliencethroughhigherinvestmentsinagricultureÚ Disasterriskreductionandmanagement(thebackboneofresilience)mustbe
systematicallyembeddedintoagriculturesectoralandsubsectoraldevelopment
plansandinvestments,particularlyincountriesfacingrecurrentdisastersand
whereagricultureisacriticalsourceoflivelihoods,foodsecurityandnutrition,
aswellasakeydriverofeconomicgrowth.
Ú Increasedfinancialresourcesshouldbedirectedtotheagriculturesector
indevelopingcountriesfromnationalgovernments,theprivatesectorand
developmentassistanceinamannerthatismoreconsistentwiththesector’s
crucialroleineradicatinghungerandachievingfoodsecurity,sustainable
agriculturaldevelopmentandeconomicgrowth.
Ú Humanitarianaidtotheagriculturesectorshouldbetterreflecttheimpactof
disastersonthesector.Disasterriskreductionandmanagementstrategies
shouldbefullyintegratedintopost-disasterrecoveryeffortsinthesectorto
ensurethatinvestmentsindisasterresponseandrecoveryalsobuildresilience
tofutureshocksratherthanrecreatingtherisksfacedbythesector.
Ú Nationalgovernmentsandtheinternationalcommunityshouldestablish
targetsforfinancingdisasterriskreductionintheagriculturesectorinorder
topreventandmitigatetheimpactofdisasters.
ThewayforwardItispromisingthatthreekeyinternationalcommitmentsatthetopoftheglobal
agendain2015recognizethesignificantimpactofdisastersandthevitalimportance
ofresilience.Inparticular,theexplicitinclusionofresilienceinthe2015SDGs
isexpectedtoprovideamajorpushalongthepathtoresilientandsustainable
agriculture.TwoGoalsinparticularareofrelevancetotheagriculturesector:Goal
2whichstrivesto“endhunger,achievefoodsecurityandimprovednutrition,and
promotesustainableagriculture”andissupportedbytarget2.4whichseeks,by2030,
to“ensuresustainablefoodproductionsystemsandimplementresilientagricultural
practicesthatincreaseproductivityandproduction,thathelpmaintainecosystems,
thatstrengthencapacityforadaptationtoclimatechange,extremeweather,drought,
floodingandotherdisasters,andthatprogressivelyimprovelandandsoilquality”;and
Goal13oncombatingclimatechangeanditsimpacts,withitstarget13.1whichseeks
to“strengthenresilienceandadaptivecapacitytoclimate-relatedhazardsanddisasters
inallcountries”88.Thisisacriticalgoalandtargetfortheagriculturesectorgivenits
extremevulnerabilitytoclimatevariabilityandchange.
AnothermilestoneistherecentlyagreedSendaiFrameworkforDisasterRiskReduction
2015–2030,thesuccessortothe2005HyogoFrameworkforAction,whichisthe
primaryglobalinstrumentfordisasterriskreduction.TheSendaiFrameworkhas
renewedinternationalcommitmentandreflectsanenhancedframeworkthatbuildson
lessonslearnedandgoodpracticesworldwide.Furthermore,itisexpectedtogalvanize
andreinforceeffortstomainstreamriskreductionacrosstheagriculturesector,
particularlyinviewofitscoreoutcome:“thesubstantialreductionofdisasterriskand
lossesinlives,livelihoodsandhealthandintheeconomic,physical,social,cultural
andenvironmentalassetsofpersons,businesses,communitiesandcountries”.
Finally,theUniversalClimateChangeAgreementthatisemergingundertheUnited
NationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChangeisalsoexpectedtofurtherprogress
onresilience,inparticularthroughSDGGoal13oncombatingclimatechangeand
itsimpacts,anditsrelatedtarget13.1.AparallelinitiativeistheWarsawInternational
MechanismforLossandDamage–themainvehicleforaddressinglossanddamage
associatedwithclimatechangeimpactsindevelopingcountriesthatareparticularly
vulnerabletotheadverseeffectsofclimatechange.
Forallthreeglobalcommitments,monitoringtheachievementofagreedtargets
onresilienceastheyrelatetoagriculturedependsontheavailabilityofdataatthe
countryandgloballevelsontheimpactofdisastersonthesector.Inordertomeetthis
challengeandclosetheinformationgap,andaspartofFAO’scorporatecommitment
toresilienceandthethreeglobalagendas,theOrganizationwillhelpimprove
monitoringandreportingofdisasterimpactontheagriculturesectorbysupporting
MemberNationstocollectandreportrelevantdataandbyenhancingthemethodology
appliedtomeasure,atthegloballevel,theimpactofdisastersontheagriculturesector;
forexample,byimprovingstatisticalanalysisandincreasingthenumberofcountries,
disastersandcommoditiesanalysed.
88 Inadditiontothetwogoalsmentioned,resilienceisincludedinotherSDGs,including:Goal1:Endpovertyinallitsformseverywhere;Goal6:Ensureavailabilityandsustainablemanagementofwaterandsanitationforall;Goal7:Ensureaccesstoaffordable,reliable,sustainableandmodernenergyforall;Goal12:Ensuresustainableconsumptionandproductionpatterns;Goal14:Conserveandsustainablyusetheoceans,seas,andmarineresourcesforsustainabledevelopment;andGoal15:Protect,restoreandpromotesustainableuseofterrestrialecosystems,sustainablymanageforests,combatdesertification,andhaltandreverselanddegradationandhaltbiodiversityloss.SeealsoFAO.2015.FAO and the 17 Sustainable Development Goals.
The explicit inclusion of
resilience in the 2015 SDGs
is a critical move that is
expected to provide a major
push along the path to
resilient and sustainable
agriculture
The Sendai Framework
is expected to galvanize
and reinforce efforts to
mainstream risk reduction
across the agriculture sector
ANNEXES
ANNEX1Glossary58 59
Annex 1. Glossary
Adaptation:Theadjustmentinnaturalorhumansystemsinresponsetoactualorexpectedclimaticstimuliortheir
effects,whichmoderatesharmorexploitsbeneficialopportunities.(UNISDR,2009)
Damage:Thetotalorpartialdestructionofphysicalassetsandinfrastructureinthedisaster-affectedareas,interms
oftheirmonetaryvalueexpressedasthereplacementcost.(EC,WorldBank,UN,2013)
Disaster:Aseriousdisruptionofthefunctioningofacommunityorasocietyinvolvingwidespreadhuman,material,
economicorenvironmentallossesandimpacts,whichexceedstheabilityoftheaffectedcommunityorsocietyto
copeusingitsownresources.(UNISDR,2009)
Disasterriskreduction:Theconceptandpracticeofreducingdisasterrisksthroughsystematiceffortstoanalyse
andmanagethecausalfactorsofdisasters,includingthroughreducedexposuretohazards,lessenedvulnerabilityof
peopleandproperty,wisemanagementoflandandtheenvironment,andimprovedpreparednessforadverseevents.
(UNISDR,2009)
Drought:Thetermdroughtmayrefertometeorologicaldrought(precipitationwellbelowaverage),hydrological
drought(lowriverflowsandwaterlevelsinrivers,lakesandgroundwater),agriculturaldrought(lowsoilmoisture),
andenvironmentaldrought(acombinationoftheabove).(IPCC,2007)
Foodsecurityandnutrition:Asituationthatexistswhenallpeople,atalltimes,havephysical,socialandeconomic
accesstosufficient,safeandnutritiousfoodthatmeetstheirdietaryneedsandfoodpreferencesforanactiveand
healthylife.
Hazard:Adangerousphenomenon,substance,humanactivityorconditionthatmaycauselossoflife,injuryorother
healthimpacts,propertydamage,lossoflivelihoodsandservices,socialandeconomicdisruption,orenvironmental
damage.(UNISDR,2009)
Losses:Changesineconomicflowsarisingfromthedisasterwhichcontinueuntiltheachievementoffulleconomic
recoveryandreconstruction.Typicallossesfortheagriculturesectorincludethedeclineinproductionofagriculture,
livestock,fisheries/aquacultureandforestryandpossiblehighercostsofproductioninthemandlowerrevenuesand
higheroperationalcostsintheprovisionofservices.(EC,WorldBank,UN,2013)
Naturalhazard:Naturalprocessorphenomenonthatmaycauselossoflife,injuryorotherhealthimpacts,property
damage,lossoflivelihoodsandservices,socialandeconomicdisruption,orenvironmentaldamage.(UNISDR2009)
Resilience:ForFAO,“resiliencetoshocks”istheabilitytopreventandmitigatedisastersandcrisesaswellasto
anticipate,absorb,accommodateorrecoverandadaptfromtheminatimely,efficientandsustainablemanner.This
includesprotecting,restoringandimprovinglivelihoodssystemsinthefaceofthreatsthatimpactagriculture,food
andnutrition(andrelatedpublichealth).(FAO,2013)
Risk:Thecombinationoftheprobabilityofaneventanditsnegativeconsequences.(UNISDR,2009)
Sustainabledevelopment:TheconceptofsustainabledevelopmentwasintroducedintheWorldConservation
Strategy(IUCN1980)andhaditsrootsintheconceptofasustainablesocietyandinthemanagementofrenewable
resources.AdoptedbytheWCEDin1987andbytheRioConferencein1992asaprocessofchangeinwhichthe
exploitationofresources,thedirectionofinvestments,theorientationoftechnologicaldevelopmentandinstitutional
changeareallinharmonyandenhancebothcurrentandfuturepotentialtomeethumanneedsandaspirations.
sustainabledevelopmentintegratesthepolitical,social,economicandenvironmentaldimensions.(IPCC,2007)
Annex 2. List of countries included in the quantitative analysis of production losses and changes in economic flows after disasters (Chapter II).
Thefollowinglistincludesallcountriesconsideredintheanalysisofcropandlivestockproductionlosses,changes
intradeflowsandchangesinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafterdisasters(ChapterIIofthisreport).
Outofthese,67countrieswereincludedintheanalysisastheyexperiencedatleastonemedium-to-largescale
disasteraffecting250000peopleormorebetween2003and2013(basedondatafromEM-DATCRED).
Theselectedcountriesarehighlightedinbold.
Africa
Angola,Benin,Botswana,Burkina Faso,Burundi,CaboVerde,Cameroon,CentralAfrican
Republic,Chad,Comoros,Congo,Côted’Ivoire,DemocraticRepublicoftheCongo,
Djibouti,EquatorialGuinea,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Gabon,Gambia,Ghana,Guinea,Guinea-
Bissau,Kenya,Lesotho,Liberia,Madagascar,Malawi,Mali,Mauritania,Mauritius,
Mayotte,Mozambique,Namibia,Niger,Nigeria,Réunion,Rwanda,SaintHelena,Sao
TomeandPrincipe,Senegal,Seychelles,SierraLeone,Somalia,South Africa,SouthSudan,
Sudan,Swaziland,Togo,Uganda,United Republic of Tanzania,Zambia,Zimbabwe.
Asia and
the Pacific
Afghanistan,Bangladesh,Bhutan,BruneiDarussalam,Cambodia,Democratic People’s
Republic of Korea,India,Indonesia,Iran (Islamic Republic of ),Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lao
People’s Democratic Republic,Malaysia,Maldives,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,Pakistan,
Philippines,RepublicofKorea,Sri Lanka,Tajikistan, Thailand,Timor-Leste,Turkmenistan,
Uzbekistan, Viet Nam.
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
Anguilla;AntiguaandBarbuda;Argentina;Aruba;Bahamas;Barbados;Belize;Bolivia
(Plurinational State of );Bonaire;SintEustatiusandSaba;Brazil;BritishVirginIslands;
CaymanIslands;Chile;Colombia;CostaRica;Cuba;Curaçao;Dominica;Dominican
Republic;Ecuador;El Salvador;FalklandIslands(Malvinas);FrenchGuiana;Grenada;
Guadeloupe;Guatemala;Guyana;Haiti;Honduras;Jamaica;Martinique;Mexico;
Montserrat;Nicaragua;Panama;Paraguay;Peru;PuertoRico;SaintKittsandNevis;Saint
Lucia;SaintMartin(FrenchPart);SaintVincentandtheGrenadines;SaintBarthélemy;Sint
Maarten(partienéerlandaise);Suriname;TrinidadandTobago;TurksandCaicosIslands;
UnitedStatesVirginIslands;Uruguay;Venezuela(BolivarianRepublicof).
Near EastIraq,Israel,Jordan,Kuwait,Lebanon,Oman,Qatar,SaudiArabia,Palestine,Syrian Arab
Republic,Turkey,UnitedArabEmirates,Yemen.
ANNEX3Listofcountriesanddisasterscoveredbythe78PDNAs60 61
Annex 3: List of countries and disasters covered by the 78 post-disaster needs assessments reviewed in the study (Chapter I)
ThefollowinglistincludesallcountriesanddisasterscoveredbythePDNAsreviewedinChapterIofthestudy.
APDNAisagovernment-ledexercisewiththesupportofrelevantinternationalorganizations,forassessing
economicdamagesandlosses,andtherecoveryprioritiesineachsectorafterlarge-scaledisasters.
Region Countries Number of disasters
Africa 13 13
AsiaandthePacific 15 27
LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 19 37
EasternEurope 1 1
Total 48countries 78disasters
Country Type of disaster and name Year Country Type of disaster and name Year
Bahamas HurricanesFrancesandJeannes 2004 ElSalvadorTropicalstormStananderuption
ofLlamatepecvolcano2005
Bangladesh Cyclone 2007 TropicalstormIda 2009
Belize
HurricaneDean 2007 TropicalstormAgatha 2010
TropicalDepression16 2008 Fiji TropicalcycloneEvan 2012
TropicalstormArthur 2008 Grenada HurricaneIvan 2004
Benin Flood 2010 Guatemala TropicalstormStan 2005
Bhutan Earthquake 2011TropicalstormAgatha
andvolcanoPacay2010
Bolivia LaNina 2008 TropicalDepression12E 2011
BurkinaFaso Flood 2009 Guyana Floods 2005
Cambodia
Cyclone 2009 Floods 2006
Floods 2013 Haiti HurricaneJeanne 2004
CaymanIslands
HurricaneIvan 2004TropicalstormFay,Hurricanes
Gustav,HannaandIke2008
HurricanePaloma 2008 Earthquake 2010
CentralAfricanRepublic
Flood 2009 India Tsunami 2004
Colombia Olainvernal 2010–2011 Flood,Bihar 2008
Djibouti Drought 2008–2011 Indonesia Tsunami 2004
Dominica HurricaneDean 2007 Earthquake 2006
DominicanRepublic
Floods 2003 Floods,Aceh 2006
HurricaneJeanne 2004 Earthquake(WestSumatra) 2009
TropicalstormNoel 2008
Country Type of disaster and name Year Country Type of disaster and name Year
Jamaica
HurricanIvan 2004
Pakistan
Cyclonesandfloods,BalochistanandSindh
2007
TropicalstormGustav 2008 Flood 2011
Kenya Drought 2008–2011 Flood,Sept 2012
LaoPeople’sDemocratic
Republic
Typhoon 2011 Flood 2010
Cyclone(Ketsana2009andFlood,Kammuri2008)
2009
Philippines
Cyclone,OndoyandPepeng 2009
TyphoonHaiyan 2013
Lesotho Flood 2011
SaintLucia
HurricaneDean 2007
Madagascar Cyclones:Fame,Ivan,Jokwe 2008 Floods 2013
Malawi Flood 2012SaintVincentand
GrenadinesFloods 2013
Maldives Tsunami 2004
Samoa
Tsunami 2009
Mexico
HurricaneStan 2005 Cyclone 2012
FloodsinTabasco 2007 Senegal Flood 2009
LluviasextremasinTabasco 2008 Seychelles Flood 2013
HurricaneWilma 2005 SriLanka Tsunami 2004
HurricaneEmily 2005 Suriname Floods 2006
Moldova Flood 2010 Thailand Floods 2011
Myanmar Cyclone,Nargis 2008 Togo Flood 2010
Namibia Flood 2009Turksand
CaicosislandsTropicalstormHannaand
HurricaneIke2008
Nicaragua HurricaneFelix 2007 Uganda Drought 2010–2011
Pakistan Earthquake 2005 Yemen Tropicalstorm03B 2008
ANNEX4DroughtsandpopulationaffectedinAfrica1980–201362 63
Annex 4. Droughts and population affected in Africa by subregion, by country, and by decade, 1980–2013 (Chapter III)
Northern Africa Northern Africa
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected
Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedAlgeria 1981 - - 2005 105000 -
380 000Morocco 1983,1984 - 1999 275000 - -Tunisia 1988 - - - -Total - 275 000 105 000
Western Africa Western Africa
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected
Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedBenin 1983 2100000 - - -
74 542 255
BurkinaFaso 1980,1988 1450000 1990,1995,1998 2696290 2001 - 2011,2014 6850000CaboVerde 1982 - 1992,1998 10000 2002 30000 -
Chad 1981 1500000 1993,1997 656000 2001,2009 3200000 2012 1600000Côted’Ivoire 1983 - - - -
Gambia 1980 500000 - 2002 - 2012 428000Ghana 1983 12500000 - - -Guinea 1981 - 1998 - - -
GuineaBissau 1982 - - 2002,2006 132000 -Liberia 1983 - - - -Mali 1980 1500000 1991 302000 2001,2005,2006 1025000 2010,2011 4100000
Mauritania 1980 1600000 1993,1997 467907 2001 1000000 2010,2011 1538000Niger 1980,1988 4500000 1990,1997 1638500 2001,2005,2009 14484558 2011 3000000
Nigeria 1983 3000000 - - -Senegal 1982 1200000 - 2002 284000 2011 850000
Togo 1983,1989 400000 - - -Total 30 250 000 5 770 697 20 155 558 18 366 000
Eastern Africa Eastern Africa
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected
Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year TotalPopAffected Year TotalPopAffectedBurundi - 1999 650000 2003,2005,2008,2009 2412500 2011 -
203 022 254
Djibouti 1980,1983,1988 255000 1996 100000 2001,2005,2007,2008 632750 2010 200258Eritrea 1993,1999 - 3900000 2008 1700000 -
Ethiopia 1983,1987,1989 21250000 1997,1998,1999 5886200 2003,2005,2008,2009 27800000 2011,2012 5805679Kenya 1984 600000 1991,1994,1997,1999 28500000 2004,2005,2008 9600000 2011,2014 9650000
Rwanda 1984,1989 480000 1996,1999 976545 2003 1000000 -Somalia 1980,1983,1987,1988 553500 - 2000,2004,2005,2008 4700000 2010,2012,2014 7350000Sudan 1980,1983,1987 11850000 1990,1991,1996 9360000 2000,2009 6300000 2012 3200000
UnitedRepublicofTanzania 1984,1988 2010000 1991,1996 3800000 2003,2004,2006 5854000 2011 1000000Uganda 1987 600000 1998,1999 826000 2002,2005,2008 2355000 2011 669000
Total 37 598 500 62 026 949 71654250 31742555
Central Africa Central Africa
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected
Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedCameroon - 1990 186900 2001,2005 - -
579 900
CentralAfricanRepublic 1983 - - - -Congo 1983 - - - -
DRCongo 1984 300000 - - -SaoTomeandPrincipe 1983 93000 - - -
Total 393 000 186 900 0 0
Southern Africa Southern Africa
1980s 1990s 2000s 2010sTotal Pop Affected
Country Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop Affected Year Total Pop AffectedAngola 1981,1985,1989 2480000 1997 2001,2004 25000 2012 1833900
86 269 729
Botswana 1982 1037300 1992 100000 2005 - -Comoros 1981 - - - -Lesotho 1983 500000 1992 331500 2002,2007 975000 2011 725515
Madagascar 1981,1988 1950000 - 2000,2002,2005,2008 1565290 -Malawi 1987 1429267 1990,1992 9800000 2002,2005,2007 8449435 2012 1900000
Mauritius - 1999 - - -
Mozambique 1981,1987 4758000 1991,1998 3300000 2001,2002,2003,2005,2007,2008 3239500 2010 460000
Namibia 1982 - 1991,1995,1998 438200 2001,2002 345000 2013 331000SouthAfrica 1980,1982,1986,1988 2170000 1991,1995 300000 2004 15000000 -Swaziland 1983,1984 - 1990 250000 2001,2007 1380000 -
Zambia 1982,1983 - 1991,1995 2973204 2005 1200000 -Zimbabwe 1982 - 1991,1998 5055000 2001,2007 8100000 2010,2013 3867618
Total 14 324 567 22 547 904 40 279 225 9 118 033
64 65
Annex 5. Methodology for the quantitative analysis of production losses and changes in economic flows after disasters (Chapter II)
A1.Selectionofnaturalhazards
Theidentificationofmajornaturalhazardsthatoccurredindevelopingcountriesbetween2003and2013wasbased
onthedatareportedbytheEM-DATCRED.Thedatabaseiscompiledfromvarioussources,includingUnitedNations
agencies,Non-governmentalOrganizations,insurancecompanies,researchinstitutesandpressagencies.
FivetypesofnaturalhazardsreportedinEM-DATCREDwereconsideredintheanalysisbasedontheirrelevance
foragricultureandlikelyimpactonthesector.Theseinclude:(1)droughts;(2)floods;(3)storms(includingtropical
cyclones,typhoonsandhurricanes);(4)earthquakes;and(5)volcaniceruptions.Thesedisastersaredefinedby
EM-DATCREDasfollows:
Ú Drought:Anextendedperiodofunusuallylowprecipitationthatproducesashortageofwaterforpeople,
animalsandplants.
Ú Flood:Theoverflowofwaterfromastreamchannelontonormallydrylandinthefloodplain(riverine
flooding),higher-than-normallevelsalongthecoastandinlakesorreservoirs(coastalflooding)aswellas
pondingofwateratornearthepointwheretherainfell(flashfloods).
Ú Storm:Atropicalstormoriginatesovertropicalorsubtropicalwatersandischaracterizedbyawarm-core,
non-frontalsynoptic-scalecyclonewithalowpressurecenter,spiralrainbandsandstrongwinds.Depending
ontheirlocation,tropicalcyclonesarereferredtoashurricanes(Atlantic,NortheastPacific),typhoons
(NorthwestPacific),orcyclones(SouthPacificandIndianOcean).
Ú Earthquake:SuddenmovementofablockoftheEarth’scrustalongageologicalfaultandassociatedground
shaking.
Ú VolcanicEruption:Atypeofvolcaniceventnearanopening/ventintheEarth’ssurfaceincludingvolcanic
eruptionsoflava,ash,hotvapor,gas,andpyroclasticmaterial.
Theselectionofnaturalhazardswasfurthernarrowedtomedium-to-largescaledisastersthatarelikelytohavean
impactonnationalagriculturalproductionfigures.ThetotalnumberofpeopleaffectedasreportedbyEM-DATCRED
isusedasaproxyindicatorfortheintensityofnaturalhazards.Thedisastersincludedintheanalysisarelimited
tothosehavingaffected250000peopleormore.Forcountriesaffectedbymorethanonemedium-to-largescale
disaster,theselectionwasfurthernarrowedtodisasterswithtotalpopulationaffectedabovetheaverage1.
Theapproachfollowedfortheselectionofnaturalhazardsissubjecttosomekeylimitations,including:
Ú TheinclusionofadisasterintheEM-DATCREDrequirescompliancewithanumberofcriteria,including:
(1)Tenormorepeoplereportedkilled;(2)Hundredormorepeoplereportedaffected;(2)Declarationofa
stateofemergency;and(4)Callforinternationalassistance.Asaresult,thelistofdisastersincludedinthe
databaseislikelytobeincomplete.
Ú Smalldisastersareexcludedfromtheanalysis.Althoughtheimpactofsmalldisastersonagricultureandfood
securityisextremelyrelevant,theselectionhadtobelimitedtomajordisasterswhoseimpactsonagriculture
productionarevisibleinnationalstatistics.Additionalresearchanddatacollectionatsubnationallevelshould
beconductedinordertocapturetheimpactofsmallerdisasters.
Ú Theminimumthresholdof250000peopleaffectedmayhaveledtotheexclusionofsomedisastersoccurred
insmallcountries,wheretotalpopulationaffectedwashighinrelativeterms,butstillbelowtheabsolute
threshold.
1 Anexceptionwasmadefordroughts,asalldroughtsaffecting250000peopleormorewereincludedintheanalysis.
A2.Assessmentofagricultureproductionlossesafternaturalhazards
Theanalysisofproductionlossesisfocusedonfourmaincategoriesofcropandlivestockcommodities,which
wereselectedbasedondataavailabilityandcross-countrycomparabilitycriteria,aswellasconsideringtheir
relevanceforfoodsecurity,sectoralgrowth,ruralincomeandfarmers’livelihoodsinthecountriesanalysed.These
include(1)cereals2;(2)pulses3;(3)keylivestockcommodities4;and(4)othercommodities,includingcashand
staplecropsselectedatcountrylevelbasedontotalproductionquantitiesandvalues,orspecificallymentionedin
countryassessmentsasbeingimpactedbydisasters.Theassessmentsreviewedfortheidentificationofkeyaffected
commoditiesinclude,amongothers,PDNAs,CropandFoodSecurityAssessmentMissions,EmergencyFood
SecurityAssessments.
Thequantitativeassessmentofproductionlosseswasmadebyanalysingyieldsandproductiontimeseriesatthe
countrylevel,usingdatafromFAOSTAT.Asafirststep,productionlosseswerecalculatedintonnesasfollows:
Ú Cereals,pulsesandothercropcommoditieslosseswereestimatedbycalculatingdecreasesincropyieldsin
theyearofdisasterandinthesubsequentyear,comparedwiththelong-termyieldlineartrend(1980–2013).
Theresultingyieldlosseswerethenmultipliedbytheareaharvestedinordertoobtainlostproduction
quantities(intonnes)aftereachdisasterandforeachcommodity.
Ú Livestockproductionlosses(intonnes)wereestimatedbycalculatingdecreasesintotalproductionofeach
livestockcommodityintheyearofdisasterandinthesubsequentyear,comparedwithlong-termproduction
lineartrend(1980–2013).
Lossesintonnesweremultipliedbyproducerpricesinordertoestimatethemonetaryvalueofproductionlosses
andhencetoobtainanestimationoftheeconomicimpactonlocalproducers.Resultsarepresentedasabsolute
monetaryvalueoflosses,andaspercentageofthetotalexpectedproductionvalue(i.e.lineartrendvalue)ofthe
analysedcommoditiesintheyearofdisasterandsubsequentyear.
DataonproducerpriceswereextractedfromFAOSTAT,whichreportspricesreceivedbyfarmersforprimarycrops,
liveanimalsandlivestockprimaryproductsascollectedatthefarmgateoratthefirstpointofsale.Severaldata
gapsarefoundinnationalproducerpricestimeseries.Toovercomepricedatalimitations,aregionalproducerprice
serieswasconstructedforeachcommodity,astheaverageofpricesavailablefortheanalysedcountriesineach
region(weightedbyGDP) 5.Further,regionalproducerpriceserieswereconvertedfromnominaltoconstantvalues
(2004–2006,USD)usingaggregatedproducerpriceindices.Aggregatedregionalconstantpriceseriesservedthe
triplepurposeof(1)facilitatingcomparisonacrosssubregions,(2)facilitatingcomparisonacrossdecades,
and(3)fillingpricedatagapsatthecountrylevel.
Finally,productionlossesintonneswerealsoconvertedintocalories.Thecaloriccontentofcropandlivestock
commoditieswasderivedfromFAOFoodCompositionTablesforinternationalandregionaluses.Theseinclude:
Ú FAOFoodCompositionTableforInternationalUse6;
Ú FAOFoodCompositionTableforUseinAfrica7;
Ú FAOFoodCompositionTableforUseinEastAsia8;
Ú INCAP’sFoodCompositionTableforUseinCentralAmerica9;
Ú FAOFoodCompositionTablefortheNearEast10.
CalorielossesarereportedasshareofpercapitaDESatthenationallevel.DESisafoodsecurityindicatorcalculated
byFAO.Itprovidesanindicationofnationalaverageenergysupply,expressedincaloriespercaputperday.Resultsare
presentedastheshareofDESlostaftereachdisasterattheregionallevel(averageofnationalDESlosses).
Importantly,theconversionofproductionlossesintopercapitaDESshouldbeusedforcomparativepurposesonly,
2 Barley;fonio;maize;millet;oats;paddyrice;rye;sorghum;wheat;andothercerealsnotelsewherespecified.3 Bambarabeans;broadbeansandhorsebeans;chickpeas;cowpeas;lentils;lupins;peas;pigeonpeas;vetches;andotherpulsesnotelsewherespecified.4 Cattlemeat;goatmeat;pigmeat;sheepmeat;cowmilk;goatmilk;sheepmilk.5 Foryearswhennopricedataareavailable,priceswerederivedusingregionalaggregatedproducerpriceindicesforlivestock,cerealsandpulses.
Theseindiceswereconstructedasaweightedaverageofaggregatedcereals,pulsesandlivestockproducerpriceindicesatthecountrylevel(basedondatafromFAOSTAT).
6 http://www.fao.org/docrep/x5557e/x5557e00.htm7 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6877e/x6877e00.htm8 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6878e/x6878e00.htm9 http://www.incap.int/index.php/es/?option=com_docman&task=doc_details&gid=80&Itemid=26810 http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/x6879e/x6879e00.HTM
ANNEX5MethodologyforChapterII
66 67
asproductionlossesafterdisastersdonotnecessarilytranslateintoanequivalentlossofpercapitaenergysupply.
Indeed,productionshortfallsmaybecompensatedinseveralwaysinordertoreducethenegativeimpactsonfood
security,including,amongothers:(1)increasesincommercialimportsandfoodaid;(2)useofstocks;(3)increase
insupplyofnon-affectedcommodities.Theeffectivenessofthesemeasureswouldlargelydependonthecapacityof
eachcountrytorespondtodisasterimpactsonagriculture,onacase-by-casebasis.
Thismethodologyissubjecttosomelimitationsthatshouldbekeptinmindwhenanalysingresults,including:
Ú Severaldatagapsarefoundinnationalproducerpricetimeseries.Regionalproducerpriceserieswere
constructedtoovercomedatalimitations.However,regionalseriesmayhideimportantdifferencesacross
nationalprices.
Ú Theimpactofdisastersonagricultureproductioncouldnotbeseparatedfromotherpossibledrivers
(e.g.conflicts,internationalpricetrends,publicpolicies).Additionalresearchisneededtoisolatedisasters’
impactsasmuchaspossiblefromotherpotentialidiosyncraticfactorsthatmayhaveaninfluenceoncrop
yieldsandlivestockproduction.
Ú Whiletheanalysisfocusesonlyonproductionlosses,itisacknowledgedthatproductionofsome
commoditiesmayhaveincreasedafterdisasters.Forexample,productionofresistantcropvarietiesmay
haveincreasedintheaftermathofdisasterstosubstitutelossesinaffectedcrops.Theanalysisofsubstitution
effectsbetweenagriculturalcommoditiesafterdisastersisoutsidethescopeofthisstudy.
Ú Theanalysisislimitedtoselectedcropandlivestockcommodities,anditexcludesdisasters’impactson
fisheriesandforestryproduction.Consequently,totalproductionlossesintheagriculturesectorarelikelyto
behigherthanreported.Additionalresearchshouldbeconductedtocoverallsectorsandcommodities.
A3.Assessmentofchangesintradeflowsafternaturalhazards
Theanalysisofchangesinagriculturaltradeflowsafterdisastersfocusedonfourcommodities,includingtwocrop
commodities,namelycerealsandpulses,andtwolivestockcommodities,namelymilkandmeat.
Theassessmentaimstoquantifyincreasesinthemonetaryvalueofimportsanddecreasesinthemonetaryvalueof
exportsofselectedcommoditiesafterdisasters.FAOSTATdataonthevalueofimportsandexportsbycommodity
(USD)wasusedtoconducttheassessment.ThevalueofexportsismostlyreportedasFreightonBoardand
calculatedastheannualamountactuallypaidforthegivencommoditywhensoldforexportationtothecompiling
country.ThevalueofimportsismostlyreportedasCostInsuranceandFreightandcalculatedastheannualamount
actuallypaidforthegivencommoditywhenpurchasedforimportationfromthecompilingcountry.Importsfor
re-exportaswellasfoodaidimportsarecomprisedintotalimports.Themonetaryvalueofimportsandexports
wasdeflatedtoensuremeaningfulcomparisonacrossthetimeperiodanalysed.
Increasesinimportswerecalculatedasincreasesinthemonetaryvalueofimportsintheyearofdisasterandfollowing
year,comparedtothelong-termlineartrendvalue(1980–2011).Thereportedfigurescorrespondtothedifference
betweentheactualvalueofimportsindisasteryearandfollowingyear,andthelineartrendvalueinthosesameyears.
Whenthelineartrendvaluewashigherthantheactualimportvalue,noincreasesinimportswereaccounted.
Similarly,decreasesinexportswerecalculatedasdecreasesinthemonetaryvalueofexportsintheyearofdisasterand
followingyear,comparedtothelong-termlineartrend(1980–2011).Decreasesinexportscorrespondtothedifference
betweenthelineartrendvalueindisasteryearandfollowingyear,andtheactualvalueofexportsinthosesameyears.
Whentheactualexportvaluewashigherthanthelineartrendvalue,nodecreasesinexportswereaccounted.
Resultsarepresentedasabsolutemonetaryvaluesofincreasesinimportsanddecreasesinexports,andasthe
percentageofthetotalexpectedvalueofimportsandvalueofexports(i.e.lineartrendvalue)oftheanalysed
commoditiesintheyearofdisasterandsubsequentyear.
Keylimitationsinclude:
Ú Sinceonlyarestrictednumberofagriculturalcommoditieshavebeenincludedintheanalysis,resultsshould
beconsideredtobehighlyconservative.Additionalresearchshouldbeconductedonchangesintradeflows
ofotheragriculturalcommodities.Inparticular,researchshouldbeconductedoncashcroptradeflowsafter
disasters,consideringtheirimportanceforexportrevenuesinmanydevelopingcountries.
Ú Foodaidismixedwithagriculturalcommercialimports.Therefore,partoftheincreasesinimportsreported
isattributabletopost-disasterreliefoperations.Whilethecostoffoodaidispartoftheeconomicimpactsof
disasters,itshouldbeseparatedfromtheimpactonnationaltradeflows,andincludedinaseparateanalysis.
Ú Theanalysisisconductedexclusivelyatthenationallevel.Therefore,considerationsonpost-disastertrade
balanceatsubregional,regionalorgloballevelareoutsidethescopeoftheassessment.Additionalresearch
shouldbeconductedtocovertheseaspects.
Ú Severalconcurringfactorsmightdeterminetheanalysedchangesintradeflows.In-depthresearchat
thenationallevelshouldbeconductedinordertofurtherexploretheroleplayedbydisastersinthe
observedchanges.
Ú Duetolackofdataonimportandexportvalues,thetimeframeisonlyuntil2011.Therefore,thesampleof
countriesanddisastersanalysedissmallerthanintheanalysisofproductionlosses.
A4.Assessmentofchangesinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafternaturalhazards
Theassessmentofchangesinagriculturevalue-addedgrowthafterdisasterswasconductedusingdatafromthe
WorldBank’sWorldDevelopmentIndicators.Theindicatorsusedforquantifyingsectoralgrowthlossesare:
Ú Agriculture,valueadded(annualgrowthinpercentage),indicatingtheannualgrowthrateforagricultural
valueaddedbasedonconstantlocalcurrency11.
Ú Agriculture,valueadded(percentageofGDP),correspondingtothepercentagecontributionofagriculture
valueaddedtototalGDP.
Ú GDP(constant2005USD),namelythesumofgrossvalueaddedbyallresidentproducersintheeconomy
plusanyproducttaxesandminusanysubsidiesnotincludedinthevalueoftheproducts12.
Changesinagriculturevalueaddedannualgrowthafterdisasterswerecalculatedasanydecreaseinactualgrowth
rateintheyearofdisasterandfollowingyear,comparedwiththelineartrendvalue(2003–2013)inthesameyears.
Anydropinvalueaddedgrowthwithrespecttothelineartrendvaluewasaccountedasaloss.Inthecasewhenvalue
addedgrowthratesindisasteryearsandsubsequentyearswerefoundtobehigherthanthelineartrendvalue,no
losseswereaccounted.
Resultsarepresentedasaveragepercentagelossesinagriculturevalueaddedgrowthaftereachdisaster.Incases
whennolossesoccurred,disasterswereassignedazerovalue,andaccountedintheaverage.
Keylimitationsinclude:
Ú WorldBankdataonagriculturevalueaddedandGDPismissingforsomeofthecountriesanalysed.
Therefore,thesampleofcountriesanddisastersanalysedissmallerthanintheanalysisofproductionlosses.
Ú Theeffectofdisastersonagriculturegrowthwasnotseparatedfromseveralotheridiosyncraticfactorsthat
mayhaveaninfluenceonsectoralperformance.Consideringthecomplexityofmacroeconomicdynamics
withinandacrosskeyeconomicsectors,quantifyingthetrueimpactofdisastersonagriculturegrowthrates
wouldbeanextremelyarduoustask,especiallyforaglobalstudy.In-depthresearchshouldbeconducted
focusingonspecificdisastersandcountries,inordertogainadditionalinsightsonthecausalrelationship
betweennaturalhazardsandsectoreconomicgrowth.
11 Aggregatesarebasedonconstant2005USD.AgriculturecorrespondstoISICdivisions1–5andincludesforestry,huntingandfishing,aswellascultivationofcropsandlivestockproduction.See:http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.AGR.TOTL.KD.ZG
12 Dataareinconstant2005USD.DollarfiguresforGDPareconvertedfromdomesticcurrenciesusing2000officialexchangerates.Forafewcountrieswheretheofficialexchangeratedoesnotreflecttherateeffectivelyappliedtoactualforeignexchangetransactions,analternativeconversionfactorisused.See:http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD?display=graph
ANNEX5MethodologyforChapterII
BIBLIOGRAPHY
70 71
African Ministerial Conference on the Environment,2011.DroughtintheHornofAfrica:challenges,opportunitiesandresponses.
African Union.2003.MaputoDeclarationonAgricultureandFoodSecurityinAfrica.
African Union.2014.ConceptNote:2014YearofAgricultureandFoodSecurityinAfrica,Marking10thAnniversaryofCAADP.
Africa Watch.1991.EvilDays:ThirtyYearsofWarandFamineinEthiopia.
Agriculture Cluster.2010.PreliminaryRapidDamageAssessmentintheAgricultureSectorforFlood-AffectedAreasofPakistan.
Agrhymet.2005.AnnualReport2005.
Allen, C.D.“Climate-inducedforestdieback:anescalatingglobalphenomenon?”In:FAO.2009.Adaptingtoclimatechange.Unasylvano.231/232,vol.60,2009/1-2.
Arshad Ali, et al.2011.Perspectivesonthe2010floodsinPakistan.
Asian Development Bank, United Nations and World Bank. 2005a.India.Posttsunamirecoveryprogram.Preliminarydamageandneedsassessment.
Asian Development Bank, Japan Bank for International Cooperation and World Bank.2005.SriLanka.2005Post-TsunamiRecoveryProgram.PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment,.
Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.2005b.Pakistan.2005Earthquake.Preliminarydamageandneedsassessment.
Asian Development Bank and theWorld Bank.2007.PakistanCycloneandFloods2007:PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment,BalochistanandSindh.
Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.2010.PakistanFloods2010,PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment.
Asian Development Bank and the World Bank.2011.PakistanFloods2011,PreliminaryDamageandNeedsAssessment.
Awulachew, S. B., Erkossa, T., Smakhtin, V., Fernando, A.2009.ImprovedwaterandlandmanagementintheEthiopianhighlands:itsimpactondownstreamstakeholdersdependentontheBlueNile.Intermediateresultsdisseminationworkshop.
Bappenas and International Donor Community. 2005. Indonesia:Preliminarydamageandlossassessment.TheDec26,2004NaturalDisaster.
Bappenas, the Provincial and Local Governments of DI Yogyakarta, the Provincial and Local Governments of Central Java and International partners.2006.Indonesia.PreliminaryDamageandLossAssessment.YogyakartaandCentralJavaNaturalDisaster.
BBC.2009a.Kenya’sheartstopspumping,accessedon3May2015.
BBC.2009b.WildlifefleeKenyanforestfires,accessedon3May2015.
Belize National Emergency Management Organization.2008.DamageAssessmentandNeedsAnalysisPreliminaryreport:tropicalstormArthur
Benson and Clay.1994.TheimpactofdroughtonSub-SaharanAfricaneconomies:apreliminaryexamination,ODIWorkingPaper77
BNPB, Bappenas, the Provincial and District/City Governments of West Sumatra and Jambi and international partners.2009.Indonesia.WestSumatraandJambiNaturalDisasters:Damage,LossandPreliminaryNeedsAssessment.
CAADP.2014.MalaboDeclarationOnAcceleratedAgriculturalGrowthAndTransformationForSharedProsperityAndImprovedLivelihoods.Doc.Assembly/AU/2(XXIII).
Cavallo and Noy.2010.TheEconomicsofNaturalDisasters.Asurvey.IDB
Center for International Forestry Research.2013.FoodSecurityandNutrition:theRoleofForests.
Chatenoux and Peduzzi.2013.Biomassfires:preliminaryestimationofecosystemsglobaleconomiclosses.
Coppock D Layne (ed.).1994. TheBoranaPlateauofSouthernEthiopia:Synthesisofpastoralresearch,developmentandchange,1980–1991. ILCA(InternationalLivestockCentreforAfrica),AddisAbaba,Ethiopia.
Demombynes and Kiringai.2011,ThedroughtandfoodcrisisinthehornofAfrica:ImpactsandProposedPolicyResponsesforKenya.WorldBank.PovertyReductionandEconomicManagementUnitAfricaRegion.
DepartmentofDisasterManagementOfficeofthePrimeMinisterwithfinancialandtechnicalsupportofGFDRR/WorldBank.Uganda.The2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.http://gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/UGANDA_PDNA_Report_2012.pdf
Development initiatives. 2014.GlobalHumanitarianAssistanceReport2014.
Deutsche Bank.2014.AgriculturalvaluechainsinSub-SaharanAfricaFromadevelopmentchallengetoabusinessopportunity.
ECLAC,UNDPandPIOJ.2004.AssessmentofthesocioeconomicandenvironmentalimpactofhurricaneIvanonJamaica.
ECLAC and the Caribbean Interamerican Development Bank. 2004.HurricanesFrancesandJeannein2004:TheirimpactinthecommonwealthoftheBahamas.Preliminaryversion.
ECLAC.2004a.TheImpactofhurricaneIvanintheCaymanIslands.
ECLAC.2004b.República Dominicana: Evaluación de los daños ocasionados por las inundaciones en las cuencas Yaque del Norte y Yuna,2003.LC/MEX/L.607.
ECLAC.2004c.Los efectos socioeconómicos del huracan jeanne en la republica dominicana.LIMITADALC/MEX/L.6383denoviembrede2004
ECLAC.2005a.Efectos en El Salvador de las lluvias torrenciales, tormenta tropical Stan y erupción del volcán Ilamatepec (Santa Ana) octubre del 2005 y Perfiles de proyecto.LC/MEX/R.892
ECLAC.2005b.EfectosenGuatemaladelaslluviastorrencialesylatormentatropicalStan,Octubrede2005.LC/MEX/R.895
ECLAC.2005c.Le cyclone Jeanne en Haití,16–18septiembredel2004LC/MEX/L.648/Rev.1,17deMarzo2005
ECLAC.2005d.Características e impacto socioeconómico de los huracanes “Stan” y “Wilma” en la República Mexicana en el 2005.
ECLAC.2005e.Mexico. Características e impacto socioeconómico del huracan Emily en Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Tamaulipas y Nuevo Leon en Juliode2005.LC/MEX/L.693
ECLAC.2007a.Belize.Macrosocio-economicassessmentofthedamageandlossescausedbyHurricaneDean.
ECLAC.2007b.Dominica.MacroeconomicimpactofhurricaneDean.
ECLAC.2008a.Evaluación del impacto acumulado y adicional ocasionado por la Nina en 2008 en Bolivia.
ECLAC.2008b.Evolución del impacto de la tormenta Noel en República Dominicana. Marzo de 2008.LC/MEX7L.853
ECLAC.2008c.Mexico. Tabasco: caracteristicas e impacto socioeconomico de las inundaciones provocadas a finales de octubre y a comienzos de noviembre de 2007 por el frente frio numero 4 LC/MEX/L.864Juniode2008
ECLAC.2008.Impacto del huracán Félix en la Región Autónoma del Atlántico Norte y de las lluvias torrenciales en el noroeste de Nicaragua.LC/MEX/L.860/Rev.1
ECLACandUNDP.2009a.Belize.Macrosocio-economicassessmentofthedamageandlossescausedbytropicaldepression16.
ECLAC and UNDP.2009b.CaymanIslands:Macrosocio-economicassessmentofthedamageandlossescausedbyHurricanePaloma.
ECLAC.2010.Evaluación de daños y perdidas en el Salvador ocasionados por la tormenta tropical Agatha.
ECLAC.2011.Mexico. Tabasco: características e impacto socioeconómico de las lluvias extremas de 2008LC/MEX/L.1007.
ECLAC.2012.Valoración de daños y pérdidas. Ola invernal en Colombia 2010–2011
ECLAC,UNDP.2007.Suriname:TheimpactoftheMay2006floodsonsustainablelivelihoods.Buitelaar,R.Etal.,StudiesandPerspectives.ECLACSubregionalHeadquartersfortheCaribbean3.
ECLAC,UNDP.2008.TurksandCaicosIslands.Macrosocio-economicassessmentofthedamageandlossescausedbytropicalstormHannaandHurricaneIke.
European Commission, World Bank and United Nations.2013.Post-DisasterNeedsAssessmentsGuidelines.
FAO, WFP.2005.CropandFoodSupplyAssessmentMissiontoZambia.
FAO.2007.EvaluationoftheFAOemergencyandrehabilitationassistanceintheGreaterHornofAfrica(2004–2007).Finalreport.
FAO.2010a.TheStateofFoodInsecurityintheWorld.
FAO.2010b.ExecutiveBrief:PakistanFlooding.
FAO. 2011a. Financialresourceflowstoagriculture:Areviewofdataongovernmentspending,officialdevelopmentassistanceandforeigndirectinvestment, ESA Working Paper No 11-19.
FAO,2011b,Pakistanfloods:oneyearon.
FAO.2011c.DroughtEmergency.ExecutiveBriefHornofAfrica.
FAO.2012d.FAO,forestsandclimatechange.Workingwithcountriestomitigateandadapttoclimatechangethroughsustainableforestmanagement.
FAO.2013a.Resilientlivelihoods.DisasterRiskReductionforFoodandNutritionSecurity.
FAO.2013b.MainstreamingDisasterRiskReductionintoAgriculture.AcasestudyfromBicolRegion,Philippines.
FAO.2015a.ClimateChangevulnerabilityinfisheriesandaquaculture:asynthesisofsixregionalstudies.FAOFisheriesandAquacultureCircularNo.1104
BIBLIOGRAPHY
72 73
FAO.2015b.InputPaperfortheGlobalAssessmentReport2015byUNISDR:MainstreamingDisasterRiskReductioninAgriculture:AnAssessmentofProgressMadeAgainsttheHyogoFrameworkforAction.
FAO and SUPARCO.2012.Pakistan.Floods/Rains2012.RapidCropDamageAssessment.
Farrell, D., Trotman, A., Cox, C.2010.Droughtearlywarningandriskreduction:AcasestudyoftheCaribbeandroughtof2009–2010.
Feinstein International Center.2007.FoodforThought:SupplementaryLivestockFeedingDuringDrought.PolicyBrief.PastoralistLivestockInitiativeEthiopia.
GFDRR,GovernmentoftheLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic.2009.TheKetsanatyphoonintheLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic(Sept29,2009).Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment.
GFDRR.2010.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment:GuidanceNotesVolume1.
GFDRR.2011.PDNAataglance.Lesotho.Severeweatherevents,Dec2010–Feb2011.
GIEWS.2010.SpecialAlertonSahel.
Glantz M.H., et al.FoodsecurityinsouthernAfrica:assessingtheuseandvalueofENSOinformation.
Government of Bangladesh;assistedbytheInternationalDevelopmentCommunitywithFinancialSupportfromtheEuropean Commission.2008.CycloneSidrinBangladesh.Damage,lossandneedsassessmentfordisasterrecoveryandreconstruction.
Government of Bihar, World Bank and GFDRR.2010.Bihar.Kosiflood(2009)NeedsAssessmentReport.
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners.2008.Ethiopia,HumanitarianRequirementsfor2008:government-partnersJointDocument.
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners.2008. RevisedHumanitarianRequirementsfor2008:government-partnersJointDocument.
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners.2009.HumanitarianRequirementsfor2009:government-partnersJointDocument.
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners. 2010.HumanitarianRequirementsfor2010:government-partnersJointDocument.
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners. 2011.HumanitarianRequirementsfor2011:government-partnersJointDocument.
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners. 2012a.HumanitarianRequirementsfor2012:government-partnersJointDocument.(January2012)
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners. 2012b.HumanitarianRequirementsfor2012:governmentpartnersJointDocument.(August2012)
Government of Ethiopia and humanitarian partners. 2013.HumanitarianRequirementsfor2013:government-partnersJointDocument.(August2012)
Government of Fiji. 2012.Post-disasterneedsassessment.TropicalCycloneEvan,17thDec.2012.
Government of the Lao PDR with support from the ADB , ADPC, FAO , GFDRR, Save the Children, UNDP, UNFPA, UNICEF, UN-HABITAT, WFP, WHO, World Bank, World Vision, and WSP.2011.TyphoonHaimaintheLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic.JointDamage,LossesandNeedsAssessment.
Government of Namibia.2013.NamibiaDroughtReliefResponsePlan2013–2014
Government of Pakistan.2014.FederalBudget2014/15.
Government of Samoa.2009.Post-DisasterNeedsAssessment.FollowingtheEarthquakeandTsunamiof29thSept2009
Government of Samoa.2012.SamoaPost-DisasterNeedsAssessment.CycloneEvan.2012.
Government of the Republic of Moldova, with support from the European Union, the United Nations, and the World Bank.2010.RepublicofMoldova.PostDisasterNeedsAssessment.Floods2010.Mainreport.
Government of the Union of Myanmar.2008.TheAssociationofSoutheastAsianNationsandtheUnitedNations,Post-NargisJointAssessment.
Government of Uganda.2012.The2010–2011IntegratedRainfallVariabilityImpacts,NeedsAssessmentandDroughtRiskManagementStrategy.
Government of Central Africa Republic.2009.Les inondations urbaines a Bangui République Centrafricaine. Evaluation de la situation actuelle et mesures pour réduire la fréquence et atténuer les impacts futurs. Rapport de l’évaluation conjointe des besoins.
Government of Guatemala; assisted by the international community.2010.Evaluación de daños y perdidas sectoriales y estimación de necesidades ocasionados por desastres naturales en Guatemala entre mayo septiembre de 2010.
Government of Guatemala, with support of the interagency mission of ECLAC and World Bank.Evaluación de daños y pérdidas sectoriales ocasionados por la Depresión Tropical 12-E. noviembre de 2011.
Government of El Salvador with the support of the international community.2009.Damage,lossandneedsassessmentforDisasterRecoveryandReconstructionafterthelowpressuresystemassociatedwithTropicalstormIda.
Government of the Republic of Haiti.2008.Rapport d’évaluation des besoins apres desastre CyclonesFay,Gustav,HannaetIke.
Government of the Republic of Haiti, with the technical support of the UN, the IDB, the ECLAC, the World Bank and the European Commission. 2010.HaitiEarthquakePDNA:Assessmentofdamage,losses,generalandsectoralneeds.
Government of Kenya.2009.Agriculturalsectordevelopmentstrategy(ASDS):2009–2020.
Government of Madagascar with the support of the United Nations and the World Bank.2008.Damage,lossandneedsassessmentfordisasterrecoveryandreconstructionafterthe2008cycloneseasoninMadagascar.CycloneFame,IvanandJokweinMadagascar.
Government of Malawi.NsanjeDistrictFloods2012.DisasterImpactAssessment&TransitionalRecoveryFramework.RecoveryasaMeanstoResilience.
Government of the Republic of Namibia with support from the International Community.2009.Post-DisasterNeedsAssessment.Floods2009.
Government of Senegal with support from the World Bank, the UN system and European Commission.2010.Rapport d’évaluation des besoins post catastrophe. Inondations urbaines a Dakar,2009.
Government of Seychelles.2013.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessment(DaLA).
Government of Togo, World Bank and UNDP.2010.Evaluation des dommages, pertes et besoins de reconstruction post catastrophes des inondations de 2010 au Togo.
Government of Saint Lucia and the World Bank.2014.SaintLucia.FloodEventofDecember24–25,2013.
Government of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.2013.RapidDamageandLossAssessment(DaLA)December24-25,2013Floods.
Hammill, Brown and Crawford.2005.Forests,NaturalDisastersandHumanSecurity,InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment(IISD),availableat
Hazell, P.1999.“PublicPolicyandDroughtManagementinAgropastoralSystems”.In:PropertyRights,RiskandLivestockDevelopmentinAfrica,eds.McCarthy,N.,Swallow,B.,Kirk,MandHazell,P.Washington,D.C.:InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute.
IAASTD.2009.AgricultureataCrossroads:VolumeVSub-SaharanAfrica
IFAD.2009.EnablingpoorruralpeopletoovercomepovertyinthePhilippines.
IFRC.WorldDisastersReport1994.
IFRC.2011.EmergencyappealTanzania:DroughtandFoodInsecurity(September2011).
IGAD.2013.TheIDDRSIStrategy:IGADDroughtDisasterResilienceandSustainabilityInitiative(IDDRSI),inFAO,2015,InputPaperfortheGlobalAssessmentReport2015byUNISDR:MainstreamingDisasterRiskReductioninAgriculture:AnAssessmentofProgressMadeAgainsttheHyogoFrameworkforAction.
ILCA.1985.Livestocklossesandpost-droughtrehabilitationinsub-SaharanAfrica.LPUWorkingPaper9.
ILRI.1986.Pastorallivestocklossesandpost-droughtrehabilitationinSubsaharanAfrica:Policyoptionsandissues.
IMF.2003.FundAssistanceforCountriesFacingExogenousShocks.
IPCC.2007.ClimateChange2007:SynthesisReport(FourthAssessmentReport-AR4)
IPCC.2014.ClimateChange2014:SynthesisReport(FifthAssessmentReport–AR5)
Israel and Briones.2013.ImpactsofNaturalDisastersonAgriculture,FoodSecurity,andNaturalResourcesandEnvironmentinthePhilippines.ERIADiscussionPaperSeries.
IUCN et al.1980.WorldConservationStrategy.LivingResourceConservationforSustainableDevelopment.
IUCN, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction.2009.EnvironmentalGuidanceNoteforDisasterRiskReduction:HealthyEcosystemsforHumanSecurity.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
74 75
Kinsey, B.1998.CopingwithDroughtinZimbabwe:SurveyEvidenceonResponsesofRuralHouseholdstoRisk.
Loayzia et al.2009.NaturalDisastersandGrowth–GoingbeyondtheAverages.WorldBank
Manthe-Tsuaneng, M.2014.DroughtconditionsandmanagementstrategiesinBotswana
Manneh, B., Kiepe, P., Sie, M., Ndjiondjop, M., Drame, N.K., Traore, K., Rodenburg, J., Somado, E.A., Narteh, L., Youm, O., Diagne, A., Futakuchi, K.2007.ExploitingpartnershipsinresearchanddevelopmenttohelpAfricanricefarmerscopewithclimatevariability.December2007,Volume4,Issue1.
Najim, M.N.A.ChangesintheSpeciesCompositionofpastoralherdsinBayregion,Somalia.
Nasi, R., Dennis, R., Meijaard, E., Applegate, G., Moore, P.2002.Forestfireandbiologicaldiversity.In:FAO.2002.Forestbiologicaldiversity.Unasylva,no.209.
Nkedianye et al.2011.“Mobilityandlivestockmortalityincommunallyusedpastoralareas:theimpactofthe2005-2006droughtonlivestockmortalityinMaasailand”.In:Pastoralism:Research,PolicyandPractice2011,1:17
Kelman.2012.DisasterMitigationisCostEffective.WorldDevelopmentReport:BackgroundPaper
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2004.Shortrainsassessment2004.Inter-agencyreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2005.KenyaLongRainsAssessmentReport2005.ConsolidatedInter-AgencyReport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2006.Longrainsassessmentreport2006.ConsolidatedInter-Agencyreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2007.Kenyashortrainsassessmentreport2007.Consolidatedinter-agencyreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2007.Longrainsassessmentreport2007.Consolidatedinter-agencyreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2008.Longrainsassessmentreport2008.Consolidatedinter-agencyreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2008.Shortrainsassessmentreport2007.Consolidatedinter-agencyreport2008.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2009.The2008/’09Shortrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2009.The2009Longrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2010.The2009-2010shortrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2010.The2010shortrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2011.The20112010longrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2011.The2011/12shortrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG).2013.OctobertoDecember2013shortrainsseasonassessmentreport.
Kenya Institute for Public Policy, Research and Analysis.2013.KenyaEconomicReport2013.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.KenyaFactsandFigures2014.
Kenya National Bureau of Statistics.2008.FoodinsecurityassessmentinKenya,
OCHA.2003.Somalia2004ConsolidatedAppealProcess.
OCHA.2004a.Financialtrackingservice.Djiboutifloods.
OCHA.2004b.HumanitarianAppealforEthiopia.AJointGovernmentandHumanitarianPartner’sAppeal.
OCHA.2004c.Ethiopia.Mid-yearreview.JointgovernmentHumanitarianPartnersAppeal.
OCHA.2004d.Kenya2004FlashAppeal
OCHA.2004e.Somalia2004.Mid-YearReviewoftheConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2004f.Somalia2005.Consolidatedappealsprocess.
OCHA.2005a.Djibouti.Drought2005.FlashAppeal.
OCHA.2005b.HumanitarianAppealforEthiopia.AJointGovernmentandHumanitarianPartners’Appeal.
OCHA.2005c.Flashupdateofthe2005HumanitarianAppealforEthiopia.AJointGovernmentandHumanitarianPartners’Appeal.
OCHA.2005d.MalawiFlashAppeal2005
OCHA.2005e.Somalia2005.Mid-Yearreview.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2005f.Somalia2006.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2006a.BurundiConsolidatedAppeal2006.
OCHA.2006b.HumanitarianAppealforEthiopia.AJointGovernmentandHumanitarianPartners’Appeal.
OCHA.2006c.JointAppealEthiopia.Mid-yearreview.
OCHA.2006d.ConsolidatedAppealfortheHornofAfrica2006.
OCHA.2006e.Somalia2006.Revision.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2007a.HumanitarianAppealforEthiopia.Ajointgovernmentandhumanitarianpartners’appeal.
OCHA.2007b.Consolidatedappeal2007forSomalia.
OCHA.2007c.Somalia2007.Revision.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2007d.Somalia2008.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2008a.Djibouti,JointAppeal:responseplanfordrought,foodandnutritioncrisis,
OCHA.2008b.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlan2008,ConsolidatedAppealProcess.
OCHA.2008c.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlanRevision2008,ConsolidatedAppealProcess.
OCHA.2008d.Somalia2008.Mid-yearreview.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2008e.Somalia2009.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2009a.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlan2009,ConsolidatedAppealProcess.
OCHA.2009a.HornofAfricaCrisisReport2009.
OCHA.2009b.Somalia2009.Mid-Yearreview.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2009c.Somalia2010.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2010a.DroughtAppealforDjibouti2011.
OCHA.2010b.ConsolidatedappealforWestAfrica2010
OCHA.2010c.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlan2010,ConsolidatedAppealProcess.
OCHA.2010d.Somalia2010.Mid-yearreview.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2010e.Somalia2011.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2011a.Ethiopia,Factsheet:RevisedHumanitarianRequirementsDocument(HRD).
OCHA.2011b.Somalia2011.Mid-yearreview.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess,20July2011
OCHA.2011c.Somalia2012.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2011d.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlan2011+,ConsolidatedAppealProcess
OCHA.2011e.HumanitarianRequirementsfortheHornofAfricaDrought.
OCHA.2011f.NamibiaRevisedFlashAppeal.
OCHA.2012a.ConsolidatedappealforDjibouti2012.
OCHA.2012b.ConsolidatedappealforDjibouti,mid-yearreview.
OCHA.2012c.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlan2012+,ConsolidatedAppealProcess,availableat
OCHA.2012d.ConsolidatedAppealMauritania2012
OCHA.2012e.Somalia2012.Mid-yearreview.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA.2012f.Somalia2013–2015.ConsolidatedAppealsProcess.
OCHA. 2013a.Djibouti,AppelglobalRevueàmi-parcours.
OCHA. 2013b. Djibouti,2013,Appelglobal,UN.
OCHA.2013c.KenyaEmergencyHumanitarianResponsePlan2013,ConsolidatedAppealProcess.
OCHA.2013e.Somalia.ConsolidatedAppeal2013–2015.Mid-yearreview2013.
ODI.2014.Daretoprepare:takingriskseriously.Financingemergencypreparedness;fromfightingcrisistomanagingrisk.
ODI and World Bank,2015.Unlockingthetripledividendofresilience.Whyinvestingindisasterriskmanagementpaysoff
Pakistan Congressional Research Service.2010.FloodinginPakistan:OverviewandIssuesforCongress.
Republic of Djibouti in collaboration with EU, UN and World Bank.2011.Evaluation des Dommages, Pertes et Besoins Suite a la Sécheresse en République de Djibouti.
BIBLIOGRAPHY
76 77
Republic of Kenya with technical support from the European Union, United Nations, and World Bank.2012.Post-DisasterNeedsAssessment(PDNA)2008–2011Drought.http://www.gfdrr.org/sites/gfdrr.org/files/Kenya_PDNA_Final.pdf
Trinidad Express Newspapers.2010.AfterbushfirescitrusgrowerslooktoGuyana.Accessedon:26April2015.
Republic of Yemen.2009.Damage,lossesandneedsassessment.October2008TropicalStormandFloods,HadramoutandAl-Mahara.
Republic of Yemen.2014.TropicalStorm,October2008.RecoveryFrameworkCaseStudy.
Royal Government of Bhutan, the World Bank and the United Nations.2009.BhutanEarthquakeSept21,2009.JointRapidAssessmentforRecovery,ReconstructionandRiskReduction.
Royal Government of Cambodia; supported by World Bank, GFDRR, UN System, ADB, and ADPC.2010.Post-KetsanaDisasterNeedsAssessment.
Sivakumar, M.V.K..2005.ImpactsofNaturalDisastersinAgriculture,RangelandandForestry:AnOverview.In:Sivakumar M.V.K.,MothaR.P.andDasH.P.(Eds.).NaturalDisastersandExtremeEventsinAgriculture.SpringerHiderberg.
State Bank of Pakistan.2011.TheStateofPakistan’sEconomy:AnnualReport2010–2011.
Swift, J., Barton, D., Morton,J.2002.Droughtmanagementforpastorallivelihoods–policyguidelinesforKenya.
The Tripartite Core Group comprised of Representatives of the Government of the Union of Myanmar, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the United Nations with the support of the Humanitarian and Development Community.2008.Myanmar.Post-Nargisjointassessment.
Traore and Owiyo.2013.“DirtydroughtscausinglossanddamageinNorthernBurkinaFaso”,Int.J.GlobalWarming,Vol.5,No.4,2013
Trujillo, M.2013.“DisasterRiskReduction:StrengtheningLivelihoodResilience,inClimateSmartAgricultureSourcebook.FAO.
UN and World Bank.2011.Inondations Au Benin. Rapport d’Evaluation des Besoins Post Catastrophe.Finalreport.
UN, GFDRR and EC.2013.PostDisasterNeedsAssessmentsVolumeAandBGuidelines.
UNDP, Pakistan Wetlands Trust.2010.RapidAssessmentofFloodImpactontheEnvironmentinSelectedAffectedAreasofPakistan.
UNDP. 2010.EarlyRecovery-Floods2010.
UNDP, ECLAC in collaboration with the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA).2005.Guyana.SocioeconomicassessmentofthedamagesandlossescausedbytheJanuary-Feb2005Flooding.LC/CAR/L.31/Rev.1
UNDP, ECLAC and IICA.Guyana.TheimpactonsustainablelivelihoodscausedbytheDec2005-Feb2006Flooding.LC/CAR/L.88
UNDP, ECLAC in collaboration with the Inter-American Institute for Collaboration on Agriculture (IICA).2007.SaintLucia.Macrosocio-economicassessmentofdamageandlossescausedbyhurricaneDean.
UNEP.2005.ThestateofenvironmentinSomalia.Adeskstudy.
UNEP.2005.Afterthetsunami.RapidEnvironmentalAssessment.
UNEP.2006.ClimateVariabilityandClimateChangeinSouthernAfrica.
UNEP.2007.EnvironmentandReconstructioninAceh:Twoyearsafterthetsunami.
UNICEF.2012.NutritionGlossary.Aresourceforcommunicators.
UNIDO.2012.Thestructureandgrowthpatternofagro-industryofAfricancountries.
UNISDR.2004.LivingwithRisk:aGlobalReviewofDisasterReductionInitiatives.
UNISDR.2009.UNISDRTerminologyonDisasterRiskReduction
UNISDR.2013.GlobalAssessmentReportonDisasterRiskReduction.
UNISDR.2015a.GlobalAssessmentReportonDisasterRiskReduction:MakingDevelopmentSustainable.
UNISDR.2015b.HFADecade:theEconomicandHumanImpactofDisastersintheLast10Years.
UNU-EHS, Alliance Development Works, Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft.2014.WorldRiskReport2014.
USAID/FEWSNET.2006.UnderstandingnutritiondataandthecausesofmalnutritioninKenya:AspecialreportbytheFamineEarlyWarningSystemsNetwork(FEWSNET)
USAID/FEWSNET.2007.DjiboutiFoodSecurityUpdate.
USAID.2013.KenyaWildlifeConservationProject.
Vorhies, F. 2012.TheEconomicsofInvestinginDisasterRiskReduction. WorkingpaperbasedonareviewofthecurrentliteraturecommissionedbyUNISDR.Geneva:SecretariattotheUNInternationalStrategyforDisasterReduction.
WFP.2009a.ChadCountryOfficeFoodSecurityUpdate–October2009.
WFP.2009b.Djibouti,EmergencyFoodSecurityAssessment.
WFP.2010.PakistanFloodImpactAssessment.
WFP.2013.FoodSecurityAnalysis,SpecialFocusZimbabwe
WFP.2012.Enquête Nationale Post-récoltes sur la Sécurité Alimentaire des Ménages Ruraux du Tchad.
WFP.Djibouti,2012,,EmergencyFoodSecurityAssessmentinruralareas.
WHO.1997.GlobalDatabaseonChildGrowthandMalnutrition
World Bank.2004.Grenada,HurricaneIvan.PreliminaryAssessmentofDamagesSept17,2004.
World Bank, Asian Development Bank, UN System.2005.RepublicofMaldives.Tsunami:impactandrecovery.Jointneedsassessment.
World Bank.2007.Indonesia.AcehFlood.DamageandLossAssessment.
World Bank.2010a.Inondations du 1er Septembre 2009 au Burkina Faso. Evaluation des dommages, pertes et besoins de construction, de reconstruction et de relèvement.Washington,DC:WorldBank.
World Bank.2010b.Damage,LossandNeedsAssessmentGuidanceNotes
World Bank.2011a.TheDroughtandFoodCrisisintheHornofAfrica:ImpactsandProposedPolicyResponsesforKenya.
World Bank.2011b.Philippines-TyphoonsOndoyandPepeng:Post-DisasterNeedsAssessment-MainReport.
World Bank.2012.Thaiflood2011.RapidassessmentforResilientRecoveryandReconstructionPlanning.
World Bank.2013a.TurnDowntheHeat:ClimateExtremes,RegionalImpacts,andtheCaseforResilience.
World Bank.2013b.AgriculturalSectorRiskAssessmentInNiger:MovingFromCrisisResponseToLong-TermRiskManagement.
World Bank.2014.Análisis de riesgo del sector agropecuario en Paraguay. Identificación, priorización, estrategia y plan de acción.
WSPA.2012.Restockingandanimalhealth.Areviewoflivestockdiseaseandmortalityinpost-disasteranddevelopmentrestockingprogrammes.
Databases
DesInventar -DisasterInformationManagementSystemhttp://www.desinventar.net/index_www.html
EMDAT-CRED databasehttp://www.emdat.be/database
FAOSTAT http://faostat.fao.org/
World Bank World Development Indicatorshttp://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/world-development-indicators
OECD Creditor Reporting Systemhttps://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=CRS1
Statistics of Public Expenditure for Economic Development (SPEED) database http://www.ifpri.org/blog/speed-public-expenditure-data-now-online
OCHA Financial Tracking Servicehttps://fts.unocha.org/
BIBLIOGRAPHY
www.fao.org/resilience
I5128E/1/11.15
ISBN 978-92-5-108962-0
9 7 8 9 2 5 1 0 8 9 6 2 0
top related