reasonable progress: chiricahua nm & wilderness area
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Reasonable Progress:Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area
Implementation Workgroup Meeting
San Diego, California
April 17 – 19, 2007
Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area
Overview of Chiricahua NM & WA Monitoring/Baseline Conditions
Annual Average 20% Worst Visibility Days
Emissions & Source Apportionment Sources Species
Reasonable Progress/Modeling Model Performance Modeling Results Visibility Projections
Summary
Source: http://www.epa.gov/region09/air/maps/az_clss1.html
Arizona Class One Areas
Source: WRAP Causes of Haze Website (http://coha.dri.edu)
2km Terrain Map 20km Terrain Map
Chiricahua NM & Wilderness Area
The Chiricahua Wilderness is located south of the Chiricahua National Monument. The IMRPOVE monitor is located west of the National Monument.
Glide Slope Annual Average (in dv)
Baseline Conditions: 8.75 dvNatural Conditions: 4.0 dv
Annual Light Extinction
Results show particle extinction. The baseline extinction is 15.44 Mm -1.
Glide Slope for 20% Worst Days (in dv)
Baseline = 13.43 dv; Natural Conditions = 7.2 dv
Baseline Extinction Budget
Visibility impairment on worst days is mostly attributed to sulfates, coarse mass, fine soil, and organic carbon.
Baseline Species – Time Series
This shows extinction for all species for each year of the baseline period.
Baseline Worst 20% Light Extinction
Average 20% Worst Day Composition(baseline ’00 – ‘04)
Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at:WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
1.3
8.1 8.6
1.7
7.3
2.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
NO3 SO4 CM EC OC FineSoil
Aerosol Species
CHIR1
Lig
ht
Ext
inct
ion
(M
m -
1)
Average 20% Best Day Composition (baseline ’00 – ’04)
Source: Chart made from spreadsheet posted at:WRAP Technical Support System >> Resources >> Monitoring >> Composition
0.5
2.3 1.20.7
1.40.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
NO3 SO4 CM EC OC FineSoil
Aerosol Species
CHIR1
Lig
ht
Ext
inct
ion
(M
m -
1)
Species Glide Slope – Worst 20%
This shows the baseline and glide slope by species.
Species Trends and URP Glide Slope (Worst Days)
Emissions & Source Apportionment
Upwind Residence Time on 20% Worst Visibility Days (2000-04)
Highest values are located in southern Arizona, west Sonora, Baja California Norte, and north Chihuahua.
Sources Located Near Chiricahua
Point Sources Douglas Power Plant; Douglas, AZ Apache Station (AEPCO); Wilcox, AZ Apache Nitrogen; St. David, AZ Chemical Lime; Paul Spur, AZ
Area Sources Vehicle Emissions: highways, unpaved roads,
recreational areas Other Sources
Naco Dump: 40 miles south of wilderness area near Naco, Mexico
Source Apportionment for Sulfate (SO4)
PSAT results indicate that sources in Arizona, Mexico, CENRAP, EUS, and pacific off-shore are the largest contributors.
The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base18b) for each state and region.
Weighted Emissions Potential – SO4
Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
36.1
0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3
23.2
13.3
1.7
21.4
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rcen
t o
f T
ota
l D
ista
nc
e W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential – SO4
Sources and Areas of Potential Sulfur Oxide Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
38.0
0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3
24.3
9.8
1.2
22.6
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l D
ista
nce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Res
Tim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Arizona SOx Emissions
AZ SO2 Emissions
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Point
Area
WRAP A
rea
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive
Dust
WB D
ust
Anthro
Fire
Natura
l Fire
Biogen
ic
Total
Anthro
To
ns
Pe
r Y
ea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
-3%
Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
Source Apportionment for Nitrate (NO3)
The largest contributors of nitrate are Arizona and California. Sources from CENRAP, Mexico, New Mexico, and pacific off-shore are also likely to contribute to nitrate.
The left column shows 2002 (plan02c) and the right column shows 2018 (base 18b) for each state and region.
Weighted Emissions Potential – NO3
Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
63.5
3.90.5 0.1 0.1 0.2
4.60.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
3.2
11.4
1.0
10.6
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l D
ista
nc
e W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential – NO3
Sources and Areas of Potential Nitrogen Oxide Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
63.0
2.90.5 0.1 0.1 0.2
4.90.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3
3.8
9.6
0.8
13.0
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Arizona NOx Emissions
AZ NOx Emissions
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
Point
Area
WRAP A
rea
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive
Dust
WB D
ust
Anthro
Fire
Natura
l Fire
Biogen
ic
Total
Anthro
To
ns
Pe
r Y
ea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
-35%
Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
Weighted Emissions Potential – Organic Carbon (OMC)
Sources and Areas of Potential Organic Carbon Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
63.6
4.10.4 0.2 0.1 0.1
3.10.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.9
16.6
1.0
8.8
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sTim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential – OMC
Sources and Areas of Potential Organic Carbon Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
64.5
3.40.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
2.80.0 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7
16.9
1.1
8.7
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Arizona OC Emissions
AZ OC Emissions
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Point
Area
WRAP A
rea
O&G
Off-Shore
On-Road
Mobile
Off-Road
Mobile
Road D
ust
Fugitive
Dust
WB D
ust
Anthro
Fire
Natura
l Fire
Biogen
ic
Total
Anthro
To
ns
Pe
r Y
ea
r
2002 (tpy) 2018 (tpy)
+6%
Source: Saguaro Reasonable Progress presentation on 1/22/07, L. Alter
Weighted Emissions Potential – Elemental Carbon (EC)
Sources and Areas of Potential Elemental Carbon Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
61.9
4.70.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
3.50.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.0
11.2
0.8
13.8
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal
Dis
tan
ce
We
igh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential - EC
Sources and Areas of Potential Elemental Carbon Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
54.3
4.80.4 0.1 0.1 0.1
3.00.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
2.7
12.4
0.8
20.0
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential – Fine Soil (Soil)
Sources and Areas of Potential Fine PM Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
30.2
2.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1
9.0
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.14.4
16.3
0.6
34.6
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sTim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential - Soil
Sources and Areas of Potential Fine PM Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
33.9
2.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2
8.7
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.14.1
15.2
0.6
32.5
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential – Coarse Particulate Matter (CM)
Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence2000-2004 Baseline for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
29.3
1.8 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2
11.5
0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0
15.7
0.3
37.9
0.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce
Wei
gh
ted
Em
is x
Re
sTim
e
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Weighted Emissions Potential – CM
Sources and Areas of Potential Coarse PM Emissions Influence2018 Projections for Chiricahua National Monument,AZ
20% Worst Visibility Days
39.2
1.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.2
10.4
0.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.9
12.8
0.3
32.4
0.2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Arizon
a
Califo
rnia
Colora
doId
aho
Mon
tana
Nevad
a
New M
exico
North
Dak
ota
Orego
n
South
Dak
ota
Utah
Was
hingt
on
Wyo
ming
Pacific
Offs
hore
CENRAP
Easte
rn U
S
Mex
ico
Canad
a
Per
cen
t o
f T
ota
l Dis
tan
ce W
eig
hte
d E
mis
x R
esT
ime
Biogenic Natural Fire Point Area WRAP Area O&G Off-Shore
On-Road Mobile Off-Road Mobile Road Dust Fugitive Dust WB Dust Anthro Fire
Modeling
Model Performance
The left points are modeled data and the right points are from IMPROVE.
Visibility Modeling Results
Visibility Projections – NO3
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections – SO4
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections - OMC
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections - EC
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections – CM
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Visibility Projections – Soil
This shows baseline conditions, glide slope, and projected 2018 light extinction.
Summary
Largest Contributors to Visibility Impairment in ChiricahuaSulfatesCoarse Mass, Fine SoilOrganic Carbon
Continuing Progress
Continuing Analysis of ChiricahuaAdditional WRAP Products (e.g. CoDust)Local Emission Inventories (e.g.
Douglas/Agua Prieta)Nonattainment/Maintenance Area PlansLocal analysis (FLM, Tribal) Impact from BART and other non-BARTMicroscale Modeling????
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