promoting inclusive growth in the caucasus and central asia › resources › promoting... · imf |...
Post on 09-Jun-2020
2 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 1
Promoting Inclusive
Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia
JUNE 2019
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 2
Inclusive Growth
Broad sharing of the
benefits of, and the
opportunities for,…
Robust and broad-based
across sectors
Productive employment across the
labor
Protecting the
vulnerable
Equal opportunities in access to
markets access
Concerted
efforts
Shared
responsibility
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 3
Progress on Promoting Inclusive
Growth in the CCA
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 4
Some progress with inclusive growth….
Some income convergence
Sources: World Economic Outlook, Regional Economic Outlook, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EM = Emerging Markets (excluding Emerging Europe), EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe.
Reduced poverty …and decreased inequality.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
GDP per capita(PPP, in constant 2011 international dollars)
CCA OE CCA OI EM EMDE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
EMDA TJK KGZ GEO ARM EMDE KAZ
Headcount Poverty Rate(Consumption below US$ 3.2 a day, percent of population)
2001 2008 2016
20
25
30
35
40
45
GEO TJK EMDA ARM EMDE KAZ KGZ
GINI Coefficient(Gini coefficient of zero expresses perfect equality)
2001 2008
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 5
With high labor market participation…
Labor participation is already elevated… …and there is a persistent gender gap
Sources: International Labor Organization, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe, EMDA = Emerging and Developing Asia.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
2000
08
17
ARM AZE GEO KAZ KGZ TJK TKM UZB EMDE
Labor Force Participation Rate(Percent)
Total Female Youth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
CCA CCA OI CCA OE EMDE EMDA
Labor Force Participation, 2018(Percent, ILO modeled estimates)
Female labor force participation
Ratio of female to male labor force participation rate
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 6
..but challenges ahead.
Slower growth
Sources: World Economic Outlook, Regional Economic Outlook, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EM = Emerging Markets (excluding Emerging Europe), EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe.
Low productivity growth High economic concentration
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
AZE TJK UZB KGZ KAZ ARM GEO
Share of Top 3 Industries in Value Added(Percent of total)
2010 2017
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2001-08 2009-17 2001-08 2009-17
CCA OI CCA OE
Growth Decomposition(Average percent)
Capital Labor TFP0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024
CCA Real GDP Growth 1/
(Percent Change)
2000-08
Average 10.1%
2009-14
Average 5.7%
2015-24
Average 4.1%
Projection
→
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 7
Growth has not been job rich, nor provided equal opportunity.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 05 10 16 2000 05 10 16
CCA OE CCA OI
Unemployment Rate(Percent of Labor Force)
Total Female Youth
Sources: International Labor Organization, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: CCA OE = CCA Oil Exporter, CCA OI = CCA Oil Importer .
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 05 10 16 2000 05 10 16
CCA OE CCA OI
Labor Force Participation(Percent of Population Age 15+)
Total Female Youth
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 8
Policies to Promote Inclusive
Growth in the CCA
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 9
Multifaceted Approach
Reorienting fiscal policy
Improving governance
and business environment
Supporting financial inclusion
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 10
I. Reorienting Fiscal Policy: Mobilizing Revenues
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
GE
O
KG
Z
AR
M
TJK
UZ
B
AZ
E
KA
Z
TK
M
EM
Eu
rop
e
Low
er
mid
dle
in
com
e
Up
per
mid
dle
in
com
e
General Government Revenues(Percent of GDP)
Other income
Unclassified Taxes
International Trade
General Goods and Services
Corporate Income
Personal Income 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
EMDE
KGZ
KAZ
ARM
TJK
AZE
GEO
Size of the Shadow Economy, 2015 1/
(Percent of GDP)
Sources: IMF FAD Revenue Analysis Tool, IMF FADTP Rates Database, IMF 2018f WP/18/17, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe.
1/ Size of the economy estimated using the MIMIC approach, for more information on the methodology please see IMF 2018f WP/18/17.
CIT and VAT Rates, Productivity, Efficiency and
Thresholds
CIT ProductivityVAT C-
Efficiency
VAT
Productivity
Latest Available
(Scale of 0-1, where 1 is best)
ARM0.13 0.47 0.38
AZE0.20 0.58 0.36
GEO0.21 0.73 0.54
KAZ0.21 0.42 0.27
KGZ0.20 0.74 0.71
TJK0.10 - -
TKM- - -
UZB0.73 0.72 0.30
EMDE0.15 0.61 0.44
Improving tax efficiencyIncreasing revenues Broadening tax base
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 11
I. Reorienting Fiscal Policy: Prioritizing Spending
6
8
10
12
14
CCA EMDE EMDA
Expected and Learning-Adjusted Years of Schooling, 2018 1/
Expected: total Expected: male
Expected: female Adjusted
Sources: World Bank Human Capital Index, IMF FAD EAT Database, EBRD and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe, EMDA = Emerging and Developing Asia.
1/ The learning-adjusted years of schooling attempts to capture quality of education, reflecting that childen in some countries learn less than others, despite being in school for the same time. It multiplies
estimated years of schooling by the ratio of most recent harmonized test scores on the TIMSS. TKM and UZB not included in CCA averages due to data availability. AZE not included in CCA average breakdown
by gender.
ARM
AZEGEO
KAZ
KGZ
TJK
TKM
UZB
Emerging Markets
OECD
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
He
alth
-Ad
juste
d L
ife
Exp
ecta
ncy, 2
01
5
Total health expenditure per capita, PPP$
Health Efficiency Frontier(Latest Value Available)
0
5
10
15
20
25
CCA OI CCA OE EM Europe
Total Investment Needs, 2018-22 (Percent of GDP per year)
Education Health Investment needs
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 12
II. Supporting Financial Inclusion: Households
• Only 45 percent of adults in CCA have
access to finance.
• 3% in mobile accounts despite elevated
mobile phone ownership (71-92% range).
• The gender gap (1/2 EMs) has doubled since
2014.
• 1/3 among poor have an account; about ½ in
the richest 60 percent households.
• Vague credit history, large interest rate
spreads, high collateral requirements
Source: Global Findex Database 2017, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EMs = Emerging Markets excluding Emerging Europe. EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe. CCA OE = CCA Oil Exporter. CCA OI = CCA Oil Importer.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2011 14 17 2011 14 17 2011 14 17 2011 14 17 2011 14 17
CCA OI CCA OE EMDE EMs World
Adults with an Account(Percent)
Mobile money accounts only
Financial institution and mobile money accounts
Financial institution account only
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 13
II. Supporting Financial Inclusion: Small and medium firms contribute to growth but face financing constraints
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
TJK
KA
Z
AZ
E
UZ
B
KG
Z
GE
O
AR
M
EM
DA
EM
DE
CCA
SME Financial Inclusion Gaps(Relative to 90th percentile)
CCA Average
Source: Global Findex Database 2017, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EMs = Emerging Markets. EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe. EMDA = Emerging and Developing Asia. LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean. SSA = Sub Saharan Africa. MENAP = Middle
East, North Africa, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
EMDA EMDE SSA LAC MENAP CCA
Bank Lending by Sector, 2016/7
(Percent)
SME contribution to growth …is constrained by financing… …relatively more than other regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Ad
van
ce
d
UZ
B
KG
Z
CC
A A
ve
rage
EM
s
AZ
E
KA
Z
SME Contribution to GDP, 2014/15 (Percent)
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 14
II. Supporting Financial Inclusion: Benefits from SME financial inclusion
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
TJK KAZ AZE KGZ UZB
Growth Benefits of Closing the SME Financial
Inclusion Gaps to Global Median(Increase in real GDP, percentage points)
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
All Firms Small Firms MediumFirms
Large Firms
Employment Growth Gains from Access to
Formal Finance 1/(Percentage points)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
All Firms SMEs Large Firms
Labor Productivity Growth Gains from Access to
Formal Finance 1/(Percentage points)
Source: Haver, World Bank Enterprise Surveys, and IMF staff calculations.
1/ Details on the estimates can be found in Annex 5 of IMF Departmental Paper 19/02.
Macro-Level Analysis Firm-Level Analysis
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 15
III. Improving Governance
CCA is lagging compared to peers… …and needs to tackle corruption.
-1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1
Voice and Accountability
Political Stability and AbsenceViolence/Terrorism
Government Effectiveness
Regulatory Quality
Rule of Law
Control of Corruption
Governance Indicators, 2017(In units of a standard normal distribution)
CCA EMDE
Source: Transparency International, Worldwide Governance Indicators, and IMF staff calculations.
Note: EMDE = Emerging and Developing Europe. EMDA = Emerging and Developing Asia. LAC = Latin America and the Caribbean. SSA = Sub Saharan Africa. MENAP = Middle East, North Africa,
Pakistan and Afghanistan.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
EMDE LAC MENAP EMDA SSA CCA
Corruption Perception Index(Lower score indicates high perceived level of public corruption)
IMF | Middle East and Central Asia Department 16
Thank you!
top related