poli 103a: california politics lecture 3 january 17, 2006

Poli 103A: California Politics

Lecture 3January 17, 2006

The Progressive Legacy I: Recall

The Purpose Behind the Process

All About Arnold•Getting on the Ballot

•Campaign Finance

•Analyzing the Results

Popular Feedback on Populism

The Purpose Behind the Process

A 1911 constitutional amendment pushed (along with initiative and referendum) by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall:•Was justified as a way to attack the graft

and corruption of the time.

•Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.

The Purpose Behind the Process:Wall of Shame

Targets of Progressive reformers:•Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913)

•Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914)

Casualties of the Speakership fight:•Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995)

•Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)

The Purpose Behind the Process

To recall a statewide officer:•Gather signatures of registered voters

equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office.

•In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote.

To recall a legislator:•Equal in number to 20% of district vote.

The Purpose Behind the Process:The Dual Ballot

Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question.

Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win.

All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot.

Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.

The Purpose Behind the Process

The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.

All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot

Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis.

From Feb. 5th to April 24th, 2003, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures.

They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.

All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot

Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24th, and eventually gave $3 million.

“I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith.

July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.

All About Arnold:Campaign Finance

Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions.

Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes:•No limits on “independent expenditures.”

•Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns

All About Arnold:Campaign Finance

Davis’ advantage: •Technically, he was opposing an initiative,

which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited.

Schwarzenegger’s advantage:•Who needs contributions when you’re

rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.

All About Arnold:$80 Million in 77 Days

Candidate Total Contributions

Gray Davis $17 million

Arnold Schwarzenegger $21.9 million

Cruz Bustamante $12.4 million

Independent Expend. $24.1 million

All About Arnold:Analyzing the Results

Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with

55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of

Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall.

Replacement Ballot Arnold won with

48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory.

He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos.

All About Arnold: Analyzing the ResultsDemocrats Did Not Abandon Gray

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OverallSupport forRecall (%)

DemocraticSupport forRecall (%)

RepublicanSupport forRecall (%)

All About Arnold:Party Registration

Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration

White: 44%-54% Democratic

Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration

All About Arnold:Support for the Recall

Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis

White: 50%-65% Support

Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis

All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In

Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.

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ElectionResult

SeptemberTimes Poll

Legislative Effects of Executive Election:

No Direct Effects

In 23 of the state Assembly districts held by Democrats, the recall won a majority of the vote.

In the 2004 legislative elections, the Republican Party captured exactly zero of those seats.

Legislative Effects of Executive Election:

Important Indirect Effects

Popular Feedback on Populism

Public Policy Institute of California poll

Popular Feedback on Populism