poli 103a: california politics lecture 3 january 17, 2006
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Poli 103A: California Politics
Lecture 3January 17, 2006
The Progressive Legacy I: Recall
The Purpose Behind the Process
All About Arnold•Getting on the Ballot
•Campaign Finance
•Analyzing the Results
Popular Feedback on Populism
The Purpose Behind the Process
A 1911 constitutional amendment pushed (along with initiative and referendum) by Gov. Hiram Johnson, the recall:•Was justified as a way to attack the graft
and corruption of the time.
•Does not specify the type of misdeed that it punishes; a “recallable offense” is whatever a majority says it is.
The Purpose Behind the Process:Wall of Shame
Targets of Progressive reformers:•Sen. Marshall Black (R-Santa Clara,1913)
•Sen. Edwin Grant (D-San Franciso, 1914)
Casualties of the Speakership fight:•Assm. Paul Horcher (R-Los Angeles, 1995)
•Assm. Doris Allen (R-Orange, 1995)
The Purpose Behind the Process
To recall a statewide officer:•Gather signatures of registered voters
equal in number to 12% of the last vote for that office.
•In five counties, gather signatures equal in number to 1% of that county’s vote.
To recall a legislator:•Equal in number to 20% of district vote.
The Purpose Behind the Process:The Dual Ballot
Yes or no vote on whether to recall the official in question.
Takes a majority (50% + 1 vote) to win.
All qualified replacement candidates appear on the same ballot.
Only takes a plurality (most votes) to win.
The Purpose Behind the Process
The 135 replacement candidates got on the ballot with 65 signatures and $3500.
All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot
Recall petitions have been circulated for every governor, but none had qualified till Davis.
From Feb. 5th to April 24th, 2003, recall proponents collected about 100,000 signatures.
They needed to collect 897,156 valid signatures within 160 days.
All About ArnoldGetting on the Ballot
Congressman Darrell Issa (R-Vista) decided to lend his considerable financial resources to the race on April 24th, and eventually gave $3 million.
“I don’t think we took it at all seriously until Darrell Issa gave the money.” – Davis advisor Steve Smith.
July: 841,000 voluntary signatures, 1,319,000 through gatherers and mail.
All About Arnold:Campaign Finance
Unlike federal races, California’s campaigns used to have no limits on the size of contributions.
Proposition 34 limited contributions to $21,200. Loopholes:•No limits on “independent expenditures.”
•Candidates allowed to shift funds raised in old days to new campaigns
All About Arnold:Campaign Finance
Davis’ advantage: •Technically, he was opposing an initiative,
which cannot be corrupted, so contributions unlimited.
Schwarzenegger’s advantage:•Who needs contributions when you’re
rich? Gave himself $10 million and declared that he would arrive in Sacramento not owing anyone.
All About Arnold:$80 Million in 77 Days
Candidate Total Contributions
Gray Davis $17 million
Arnold Schwarzenegger $21.9 million
Cruz Bustamante $12.4 million
Independent Expend. $24.1 million
All About Arnold:Analyzing the Results
Recall Ballot 61.2% turnout. “Yes” won with
55.4% of the vote. About a quarter of
Democrats, 45% of Latinos, and 48% of union members supported recall.
Replacement Ballot Arnold won with
48.6% of the vote, a 17% margin of victory.
He attracted 23% of Democrats and 31% of Latinos.
All About Arnold: Analyzing the ResultsDemocrats Did Not Abandon Gray
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3/3/
2003
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3/31
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6/9/
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9/1/
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OverallSupport forRecall (%)
DemocraticSupport forRecall (%)
RepublicanSupport forRecall (%)
All About Arnold:Party Registration
Blue: More than 54% Democratic Registration
White: 44%-54% Democratic
Red: Less than 44% Democratic Registration
All About Arnold:Support for the Recall
Blue: Less than 50% Support for Recalling Gray Davis
White: 50%-65% Support
Red: More than 65% Support for Recalling Gray Davis
All About Arnold: Duverger’s Law Kicks In
Duverger’s Law: Because voters behave strategically, American-style races always come down to two parties/candidates.
0%
10%
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60%
Arnol
d Sch
warze
negge
r (R)
Cruz
Busta
man
te (D
)
Tom M
cClin
tock
(R)
Peter
Mig
uel C
amej
o (G
rin)
Ariann
a Huf
fingt
on (In
d)
Peter
V. U
eber
roth
129
Oth
er C
andi
date
s
ElectionResult
SeptemberTimes Poll
Legislative Effects of Executive Election:
No Direct Effects
In 23 of the state Assembly districts held by Democrats, the recall won a majority of the vote.
In the 2004 legislative elections, the Republican Party captured exactly zero of those seats.
Legislative Effects of Executive Election:
Important Indirect Effects
Popular Feedback on Populism
Public Policy Institute of California poll
Popular Feedback on Populism