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Perceptions vs. Reality: Impacts on Policies and Democracy
Robert ManchinGallup Europe
OECD World Forum, Istanbul June 28, 2007
in a post-Heisenberg
Political Context
Slide 2
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Democracy: Aligning Perceptions? Evidences and survey evidences
Slide 3
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
The Sun goes around the Earth
15 15 16 1720 20
2224
29 30 30
36
42
2321
0
10
20
30
40
50
Slovakia CzechRep.
Poland LithuaniaBulgaria Estonia Latvia Slovenia RomaniaHungary Malta Cyprus Turkey EU15Average
CC13Average
% who answered “true”
Source: EB 55.2,2001: CCEB 2002.3
Slide 4
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
What is evidence for some is not shared by others: impacts of policy / for democracy ?
Most frequently practicing believers:
Roman Catholic
Protestant Orthodox Muslim
The continents on which we live have been moving for millions of years
70 71 67 61
% of yes answers
Human beings developed from earlier species of animals
47 24 45 22
The Sun goes around the Earth 70 71 54 48
Source: EB 55.2,2001: CCEB 2002.3
Slide 5
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Measuring subjective well-
being, satisfaction with
services are related:
Can we trust comparisons?
Slide 6
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Life satisfaction and per capita relative GDP
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
BG RO
PT
LTLVEE
SKHU
TR
PL
CZEL
IT
DFR
MT SICY
ES
BE
FI
AT
LU
IE
UK SENL DK
Per capita volume index at level of total GDP, 2002
Life satisfaction, TopBox%, 2003.4.
Candidate Countries
Accessing CountriesMember Countries
Slide 7
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Random error or cultural disposition?
How many days out of the last 30 days you had at least two hours of sunshine?Mean difference in reported and actual number of days with min. 2 hours of sunshine in the previous month at given location
-10
0
10
Copen-hagen
Amsterdam London Paris Madrid Athens Helsinki Dublin Berlin Brussels Budapest
+ 9 days
- 9 days
source: European Crime and Safety Survey 2005 / Meteorology databases
Slide 8
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Optimism related to economic development?
source: Gallup Soul of Cities, 2006-7
Slide 9
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Optimism related to Human Development?
source: Gallup Soul of Cities, 2006-7
Slide 10
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Perception and Reality II.“Corruption is widespread in government”
perception vs. respondent’s past 12 months experience based on interactions with public sector
91
87
86
76
73
73
72
68
68
68
50
44
9
13
12
12
31
11
11
12
11
8
16
14
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Bosnia
Herzegovina
Kosovo (Albanians)
Macedonia (Albanians)
Albania
Macedonia (National)
Serbia (National)
Republica Srpska
Kosovo (Serbs)
Serbia (Minorities)
Montenegro (National)
Montenegro (Albanians)
Perception
Experience
source: Gallup World Poll / Gallup Balkan Monitor 2005-2006
Slide 11
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Measuring reality to manage implementation of policy
professionally
75
55
41
21 20
6 5
5
6
6
62
21
3
19
54
7378
92 9510097
39
0
25
50
75
100
December29
January2
January3
January4
January5
January6
January10
January12
January16
euro
a mix of tolar and euro
tolar
Q5. Which currency did you use for your last cash payment today?% by day
The example of Slovenian euro changeover
source: FL194 Slovenian Changeover 2007
Slide 12
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Even if government is not setting new policy – people make “adjustments” to unspoken
realities...
4
58
22
11
31
5 10
20
33
5
0
25
50
75
100
2005 September 2006 September
DK
in 2013 or later
in 2011-2012
in 2009-2010
in 2007-2008
The public’s expected date of euro adoption in Hungary
source: FL175b, 2005 : FL191, 2006AUT
Slide 13
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Implications for Democracy IICreating democracy by ousting Saddam:
worth it?(geocoded answers: Red totally agree) (Gallup Poll of Baghdad, 2003)
In your opinion, why did the U.S.A. and Great Britain decide to invade Iraq? (open-ended)
10%
10%
4%
5%
6%
7%
11%
14%
15%
37%
43%To rob Iraq’s oil
To topple/deposeSaddam’s regime
Benefit for U.S. people
To colonize/occupy andweaken the Middle East
To control Iraq wealth/fortuneTo control Iraq minerals;
phosphorus, phosphate, mercury, sulfur and uranium
To change the Middle East“map” as U.S. and Israel want
To destroy weaponsof mass destruction
All other responses
No reason/Don’t know
To assist Iraqi people
source: Gallup Poll of Baghdad, 2003
Slide 14
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Implications for Democracy III: the will of the people -- Hamas, Fatah, Palestine
28
43
45
73
69
80
81
0 25 50 75 100
Your country asa place to live
Basic servicessuch as waterand electricity
Your freedom todo what youchoose in life
Efforts to dealwith the poor
Efforts topreserve theenvironment
Control of crimeand corruption
Efforts toincrease jobs
Dissatisfied
51
48
43
39
37
37
36
67
0 25 50 75 100
Religious organizations
Healthcare or medical systems
Financial institutions or banks
Quality and integrity of the media
The military
J udicial system and courts
National government
Honesty of elections
Yes, have confidence
source: Gallup Palestine Peace Poll, 2005 December
Slide 15
© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe
Not a bug: a feature
Democracies work in the context of superficial popular perceptions and votes
Measuring “reality” has its immanent limitations – within measurement as well as outside
Policy advisory should focus on perception management as well
Survey design and interpretation always have to pay a close attention to the difference between subjective objective realities, to remain valid, and helpful in policy debates
Public Opinion Research:
Fighting the War Against Error
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