Perceptions vs. Reality: Impacts on Policies and Democracy

Robert ManchinGallup Europe

OECD World Forum, Istanbul June 28, 2007

in a post-Heisenberg

Political Context

Slide 2

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Democracy: Aligning Perceptions? Evidences and survey evidences

Slide 3

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

The Sun goes around the Earth

15 15 16 1720 20

2224

29 30 30

36

42

2321

0

10

20

30

40

50

Slovakia CzechRep.

Poland LithuaniaBulgaria Estonia Latvia Slovenia RomaniaHungary Malta Cyprus Turkey EU15Average

CC13Average

% who answered “true”

Source: EB 55.2,2001: CCEB 2002.3

Slide 4

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

What is evidence for some is not shared by others: impacts of policy / for democracy ?

Most frequently practicing believers:

Roman Catholic

Protestant Orthodox Muslim

The continents on which we live have been moving for millions of years

70 71 67 61

% of yes answers

Human beings developed from earlier species of animals

47 24 45 22

The Sun goes around the Earth 70 71 54 48

Source: EB 55.2,2001: CCEB 2002.3

Slide 5

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Measuring subjective well-

being, satisfaction with

services are related:

Can we trust comparisons?

Slide 6

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Life satisfaction and per capita relative GDP

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65

BG RO

PT

LTLVEE

SKHU

TR

PL

CZEL

IT

DFR

MT SICY

ES

BE

FI

AT

LU

IE

UK SENL DK

Per capita volume index at level of total GDP, 2002

Life satisfaction, TopBox%, 2003.4.

Candidate Countries

Accessing CountriesMember Countries

Slide 7

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Random error or cultural disposition?

How many days out of the last 30 days you had at least two hours of sunshine?Mean difference in reported and actual number of days with min. 2 hours of sunshine in the previous month at given location

-10

0

10

Copen-hagen

Amsterdam London Paris Madrid Athens Helsinki Dublin Berlin Brussels Budapest

+ 9 days

- 9 days

source: European Crime and Safety Survey 2005 / Meteorology databases

Slide 8

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Optimism related to economic development?

source: Gallup Soul of Cities, 2006-7

Slide 9

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Optimism related to Human Development?

source: Gallup Soul of Cities, 2006-7

Slide 10

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Perception and Reality II.“Corruption is widespread in government”

perception vs. respondent’s past 12 months experience based on interactions with public sector

91

87

86

76

73

73

72

68

68

68

50

44

9

13

12

12

31

11

11

12

11

8

16

14

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Bosnia

Herzegovina

Kosovo (Albanians)

Macedonia (Albanians)

Albania

Macedonia (National)

Serbia (National)

Republica Srpska

Kosovo (Serbs)

Serbia (Minorities)

Montenegro (National)

Montenegro (Albanians)

Perception

Experience

source: Gallup World Poll / Gallup Balkan Monitor 2005-2006

Slide 11

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Measuring reality to manage implementation of policy

professionally

75

55

41

21 20

6 5

5

6

6

62

21

3

19

54

7378

92 9510097

39

0

25

50

75

100

December29

January2

January3

January4

January5

January6

January10

January12

January16

euro

a mix of tolar and euro

tolar

Q5. Which currency did you use for your last cash payment today?% by day

The example of Slovenian euro changeover

source: FL194 Slovenian Changeover 2007

Slide 12

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Even if government is not setting new policy – people make “adjustments” to unspoken

realities...

4

58

22

11

31

5 10

20

33

5

0

25

50

75

100

2005 September 2006 September

DK

in 2013 or later

in 2011-2012

in 2009-2010

in 2007-2008

The public’s expected date of euro adoption in Hungary

source: FL175b, 2005 : FL191, 2006AUT

Slide 13

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Implications for Democracy IICreating democracy by ousting Saddam:

worth it?(geocoded answers: Red totally agree) (Gallup Poll of Baghdad, 2003)

In your opinion, why did the U.S.A. and Great Britain decide to invade Iraq? (open-ended)

10%

10%

4%

5%

6%

7%

11%

14%

15%

37%

43%To rob Iraq’s oil

To topple/deposeSaddam’s regime

Benefit for U.S. people

To colonize/occupy andweaken the Middle East

To control Iraq wealth/fortuneTo control Iraq minerals;

phosphorus, phosphate, mercury, sulfur and uranium

To change the Middle East“map” as U.S. and Israel want

To destroy weaponsof mass destruction

All other responses

No reason/Don’t know

To assist Iraqi people

source: Gallup Poll of Baghdad, 2003

Slide 14

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Implications for Democracy III: the will of the people -- Hamas, Fatah, Palestine

28

43

45

73

69

80

81

0 25 50 75 100

Your country asa place to live

Basic servicessuch as waterand electricity

Your freedom todo what youchoose in life

Efforts to dealwith the poor

Efforts topreserve theenvironment

Control of crimeand corruption

Efforts toincrease jobs

Dissatisfied

51

48

43

39

37

37

36

67

0 25 50 75 100

Religious organizations

Healthcare or medical systems

Financial institutions or banks

Quality and integrity of the media

The military

J udicial system and courts

National government

Honesty of elections

Yes, have confidence

source: Gallup Palestine Peace Poll, 2005 December

Slide 15

© 2007 The Gallup Organisation Europe

Not a bug: a feature

Democracies work in the context of superficial popular perceptions and votes

Measuring “reality” has its immanent limitations – within measurement as well as outside

Policy advisory should focus on perception management as well

Survey design and interpretation always have to pay a close attention to the difference between subjective objective realities, to remain valid, and helpful in policy debates

Public Opinion Research:

Fighting the War Against Error