pakistan energy sector
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ENERGY SECURITY OF PAKISTAN
Presentation to Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute
Mechanical Engineering Dept. October 26, 2011
PresenterAsimRiaz
Prospects and Challenges
Indeed, in the creation of the heavens and the earth and (in) the difference of night and day, there are signs for men of understanding. Men who remember Allah, standing, sitting, and reclining and think deeply on the creation of the heavens and the earth; Our Lord! Thou hast not created this in vain! Glory be to Thee! Then give us salvation from the penalty of the hell fire.
Quran, Al-Imran-190-191
I seek refuge of Allah from the outcast satan
Allah is the protecting Guardian of those who believe. He brings them out of the darkness into the light... Quran, Bakrah-257
Problems Solutions
We are here to make a difference…
Prerequisite
Hyperlink
Concept of Energy
Security
State of Energy Sector
Global Perspective
Way Forward
Reviewed by: Mr. Zakauddin Malik, Former MD and Chairman OGDCL
Mr. Ashfaq Mahmood, Ex-Secretary M/o Water & Power Mr. Muhammad Raziudin, Former MD OGDCL, CEO ARL
Energy
Security
Adequacy
Reliability
Affordability Viability
Diversity
OUTCOMES
Independence
Maintain degree of freedom in foreign policy
Sustainable economic development
Reduced risk to interruptions
The Economy is not vulnerable to external shocks
Demand Growth
Security of Supply
Environmental Impacts
Supply Challenges
Policy Planning
Technology
•Economic Growth •Population •Urbanization •Rural Electrification •Life Style •DSM •Energy Conservation
• Conventional ̵ Oil, Gas, Coal
• Renewable ̵ Hydro, Solar, Bio
• Energy Options ̵ Indigenous ̵ Imported
•Oil & Gas •Power
• Pollution ̵ Water ̵ Air
• Climate Change • Global Warming • Using R.E, Clean Coal technology, CCS, mitigation…
• Realization of Indigenous Resources •Import options •Vulnerability to Shocks, interruptions • Step up exploration Security of supply is simply Energy Security
Ref: Dr. Steven E. Koonin, BP
State of Pakistan’s Energy Sector
• TOE stands for Ton of Oil equivalent and ‘m’ Stands for Million so we write mTOE – 1 TOE = 42 Giga Joules = 7.4 Barrels of Oil
– 1000 Liter Petrol = 0.86 TOE – 1000 Liter Diesel = 0.98 TOE – 1 MWh = 0.22 TOE @ 39% efficiency – 1 TOE = 4.54 MWh@39%, 11.62 MWh@100%
– 1 Million Cubic Feet of Gas = 23.4 TOE Hyperlink
• Geological Potential: 282 Trillion Cubic Feet Discovered: 54 TCF Produced: 26 TCF Remaining: 27.6 TCF Production: 1.45 TCF
• Reserve to Production (R/P) Ratio: 19 Consumption: 1.27 TCF Gas
• Geological Potential: 27 Billion Barrels Discovered: 1 Billion Barrel Remaining: 306 Million Barrel R/C Ratio: 2.3 R/P Ratio: 13 Net Oil Imports: 82% Production: 23.7 MB Consumption: 145 MB Oil
• Geological Potential: 186 Billion Tons Proven: 3.45 Billion Tons Production: 3.48 Million Tons Consumption: 8.4 Million Tons 1.85% of Coal Potential is realized; 66% of Coal is imported in TOEs
Coal
• Hydro-Electric Potential: 55,000 Megawatt (MW) Realized: 12% • Installed Hydel Capacity: 6444 MW Remaining : 48,556 MW Hydro • Solar Potential is 2.9 million MW, PV, CSP, Solar water heaters… • Wind potential is 346,000 MW with Gharo Corridor of 55,000 MW • Small-Hydel potential 4,500 MW, Biomass, Biodiesel, Ethanol…
R.E
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
1995 2000 2005 2010 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 Million TOE
Natural Gas 30.8 mTOE
Coal 4.62
mTOE
Electricity 7.46 mTOE
LPG 0.4 mTOE
Total Supply 63.1 mTOE
Oil 19.8 mTOE
FY: 2009-10
Gas
Oil
Coal
LPG
Primary Electricity
Industrial 39.7%
15.6 mTOE
Other Gov. 2.1%
0.786 mTOE
Domestic 21.2%
8.36 mTOE
Commercial 3.4%
1.53 mTOE
Transport 31.4%
11.65 mTOE
Agriculture, 2.2%, 0.85 mTOE
Total 38.8 mTOE
Diesel 7.64
mTOE
Petrol 2.06
mTOE
CNG 2.3
mTOE
E-10, 5067,
0%
0.042 % E-10, 0.47 mTOE
63.5%
19.2%
17.2 %
Transformation Loss: 17.1 mTOE T&D Losses: 2.47 mTOE Non-Energy Use: 4.13 mTOE
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
Primary -Mining -Drilling -Harvesting
Secondary -Processing -Conversion -Transform
Final -Transmission -Distribution -Transportation -Storage
End Use -Industry -Domestic -Commercial - Agriculture
Losses
Hyperlink
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
END-USE TECHNOLOGIES
DEMAND FOR ENERGY SERVICE
Industry, e.g. Process steam Motive power Commercial, e.g. Cooling Lighting Households, e.g. Space heat Refrigeration Agriculture, e.g. Water supply Transport, e.g. Person-km
(PRIMARY ENERGY) (FINAL ENERGY) (USEFUL ENERGY)
Mining, e.g. Crude oil Natural gas Coal Imports, e.g. Crude oil Oil products Exports, e.g. Oil products Coal
Renewables, e.g. Biomass Hydro Solar Wind
Fuel Processing Plants, e.g. Oil refineries Hydrogen Ethanol Power Plants, e.g. Conventional IGCC Solar Wind Nuclear CCGT Fuel cells CHP
Industry, e.g. Steam boilers Machinery Commercial, e.g. Air conditioners Light bulbs Households, e.g. Space heaters Refrigerators Agriculture, e.g. Pumps Tractors Transport, e.g. Gasoline car Fuel cell bus
DEMAND PROJECTIONS RESOURCE SUPPLY-COST CURVES
TECHNOLOGY COST AND PERFORMANCE
DEVICE COST AND PERFORMANCE
Thousand Tonnes of Oil Equivalent
Imports 21,640
Indigenous Production 43,269
From Stocks 113
Indigenous Energy Availability 64,909
Total Primary Energy Supplies 63,088
Exports 1,523
Nuclear, Hydro and Imported
7,455
Natural Gas 30,809
Crude Oil, Petroleum Products
and LPG 20,202
Coal 4,622
Bunkers 411
Use in Transformation 20,188
Final Energy Consumption 38,768
Lubes, etc. 427
Natural Gas 3,422
Coal 283
Non- Energy
Use 4,132
Coal 4,282 Petroleum Products
and LPG 11,406
Natural Gas 17,025
Electricity 6,055 Transformation Losses
17,114
Energy Sector Own Use
606
Transmission and Distribution Losses
2,468 Consumption by Economic Sectors
Commercial
Agriculture
8 5 0 Domestic
8,360 Industry 15,605
Transport 11,655
Other Govt.
7 6 8
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
Domestic 17%
5.13 mTOE Other
4% 1.2 mTOE
Gen. Industries 25%
7.5 mTOE Fertilizer 18%
4.28 mTOE
Power 29%
7.1 mTOE
CNG 8% 2.3
mTOE
Gas Shortage 1.5-2 BCF /day
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
CNG Sector consumes only 8% of Gas but generate 30% of gas revenues for Gas utility co. High tariff
80% Population do not have access to gas pipeline yet 20% consume 17% of gas…
Fertilizer Sector is over subsidized…
Where is our huge Coal, Hydel, Renewable potential?
Total Gas Consumption 1.27 Trillion Cubic Feet
Source: ISGS
17
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.0020
10
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Bcf
d
Existing Gas Fields
Total: 20.2 Million Tonnes
Supply
Consumption
• Oil Import Bill was 9.99 billion US$ in Financial year 2009-10
• Oil Consumption concentrated in the transport and power sector i.e. 92.4%
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
Oil for power sector must be replaced with Hydro and Coal power otherwise our economy will collapse and industry become a dead wood..
Comments on Sectorial Fuel Prices • Natural Gas pricing is not based on
economic principle of scarcity and optimal utilization which resulted in misuse and misallocation of this precious resource
• Cheap pricing of Natural Gas is an entry barrier to Coal, Renewables and Hydel
• Domestic Gas is no longer a surplus resource; reserves are in sharp decline. LNG will affect WACOG significantly
Against For CNG • Subsidy to medium
& rich Class • Vehicles mostly non-
commercial • Affect on refinery
mix, surplus naphtha • Power Loss in engine • Limited Range
• Green Fuel • Indigenous • Extensive Infrastructure
& supporting Industry • Commercial vehicle
Conversion due to Price Differential…
• Reduces import bill • Higher tariff
CNG Industry has no alternative for Gas
• Lack of Demand Side Management • Tariff structure is not rational. Subsidies esp. cross
subsidy to domestic sector and not targeted for poor • Circular Debt due to subsidy, non-payment & pilferage • Seasonality of Hydel power • Shortfall in gas supply • Fuel Oil supply issues due to financial constraints • Lack of diversification in generation mix • Poor Governance and Regulation • High power system losses
2008-09 2015 1 Average Power System % Losses 23.3% (10.3%-36%) Targets not available 2. Thermal Generation Efficiencies 16%-34% Limited plans
3. Thermal Power Availability 50%-60% Situation unaddressed
4. Demand Side Management Nil CFL Scheme only.
5 Overheads Lines/ Transformer In large numbers 6 SAIFI (System Average Interruption Frequency Index) 0 – 57089 13 7. SAIDI (System Average Interruption Duration Index) 22.9 – 5706194 14
Power System Capacity of PEPCO as on May, 2011
Installed Capacity
Dependable Capability
20964 MW 18882 MW
Average System Capability of PEPCO as on May, 2011
Summer Winter
12632 MW 10233 MW
Source: NTDC, PECPCO
Nuclear 3.3%
Hydel 29.4%
Oil 37.8%
Coal 0.1%
Gas 29.4%
WAPDA 50.0%
KESC 8.4% PAEC 3.0%
KAPCO 8.4%
Uch 4.3%
Rousch 3.4%
HUBCO 9.2%
Liberty 1.6%
Other IPPs 11.7%
12,969 14,818 15,658 15,662
17,399 17,498 17,799 17,798 19,257 19,384 19,450 19,420 19,420 19,786 20,922
95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000 MW
Hydel Thermal (WAPDA) Thermal (KESC) Thermal (IPPs) Nuclear
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 05-06 04-05 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10
& Imported
By Type By Company Power Generation Total: 95,608 GWh
Installed capacity average growth was 0.21% in these 5 years. 163 MW added
GDP average growth in this period was 7% compare to historic average of 5%
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
FY: 2009-10
Hydel Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Gas
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
37%
30%
51% 29%
53%
30%
15%
Source: HDIP, EYB Database
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2000 2000-2010 2010-2012
239 428
943 1292
1928 1706
381 239
667
1610
2902
4830
6536
6917
MW
YEARS
CAPACITY (MW)
COMMULATIVE CAPACITY (MW)
Source: Wapda
Note: Below 1000 cubic meter per capita; Pakistan becomes water starved country!
Source: Wapda
Total: 74,348 GWhr
Constrained Power Shortage 5000 MW
Domestic 46%
Commercial 7%
Industrial 27%
Agriculture 13%
Bulk Supplies 6%
Others 1%
Source: HDIP, EYB 2010
Just look at this! 46% of
Non-economic subsidized
consumption
8,0009,000
10,00011,00012,00013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,00019,000
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Months
Loa
d in
MW
Computed (2010-11)Supplied (2010-11)Computed (2009-10)Supplied (2009-10)
Source: PEPCO
0.511.25
3.12
10.2111.11
13.216.3619.42
29.51
39.37
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000
Pric
e/kW
h
Load (MW)
Demand MW
Price Rs/kWh
5,000 1.25 12,000 11.11 14,000 14 15,000 Up to 39
>15,000 Infinite
Source: PEPCO
Hydel unit (Tarbela) Price per Unit (Kwh) and they say we wont build Kalabagh Dam…
Rental unit is up to 80 times more expensive than Hydel. They say we will have Rental Power Plants but not Kalabagh
• Rental Contract Rental
• Capacity Purchase Price • Energy Purchase Price IPPs
• Capacity Purchase Price • Energy Purchase Price GenCos
• Flat Rate Nuclear
• Flat Rate • Water Charges Hydel
• Agreement Terms Imports
• Letter of Intent Renewable
PESCO
LESCO
IESCO
QESCO
HESCO
MEPCO
GEPCO
FESCO
Transmission Distribution Generation
CPPA
GoP
app
rove
s th
e N
EPRA
tarif
f
Generation Cost (G.C) determined by NEPRA
G.C + Wheeling Chargers of NTDC
G.C + W.C+ Distribution Margin
Tariff Effective (Rs./kWh) Determined Notified Difference
24-02-2007 5.13 4.25 0.88 01-03-2008 5.58 4.78 0.80 05-09-2008 8.35 5.58 2.77 25-02-2009 8.35 5.63 2.72 01-10-2009 8.35 5.88 2.47 21-12-2009 10.09 5.96 4.13 01-01-2010 10.09 6.65 3.44 01-07-2010 10.35 7.05 3.30 01-10-2010 9.57 7.19 2.38 01-11-2010 9.57 7.29 2.28 15-03-2011 9.57 7.44 2.13 06-05-2011 9.57 7.58 1.99
Source
Process Refine
PSO Genco
NTDC DISCO
Meter End Use
Circular Debt Rs. 350 billion
Subsidy Rs. 250 billion
Households
Firms
Goods & Services
Land, Labor Capital
Payment of Goods & Services
Rent Wages Profits
Leakages Taxation\Imports\Savings
GDP Injections GoP Spending\Exports\Investment
National Income
Hyperlink
Cost to the Industrial Sector Rs 157 billion Cost to the other sectors of industrial loss of Value Added Rs 53 billion Total cost of industrial load shedding to the economy Rs 219 billion Loss of exports Rs 75 billion Additional cost of Power self Generation Rs 32 billion Percentage loss of Production 7% Loss of employment in the economy 400,000
Source: IPP estimates listed in Beacon House National University publication: State of the Economy – Emerging from Crisis 2008
Source: Trading Economics
• Pakistan’s total GHG emissions were 310 million tones of CO2 equivalent comprising of CO2 54%, CH4 36%, N20 9% and others 1% in 2008 (Ref: National GHG Inventory)
• Responsible for 0.8 per cent of global GHG emissions • Ranks 135th in the world in terms of per capita GHG
emissions; Ranks 6th in population (Ref: GoP 2010) • It ranked 16th out of 170 countries in a Climate Change
Vulnerability Index (Ref: Maplecroft 2010) • CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption in
Pakistan are among the lowest in the world • Reason! Historically, our primary energy supply mix is
about 50% Natural Gas with very low carbon footprint, 11% Hydel and 1.1% nuclear which are Carbon free
• Human Resource Development • Governance of Energy Sector
– Incompetence, nepotism and corruption – Too many institutions involved in a activity area – Lack of National Integrated Energy Plan – Lack of financial and administrative autonomy
• Regulator’s Role – Clarity of Role and Autonomy – Lacks market development approach and monitoring – Accountability – Capacity Building – Tariff Calculation and determination is formula based
• Reforms/Restructuring and Stalled Privatization – Energy Sector investment need cannot be met by the
public sector alone – Stalled privatization programs – Vertical Integration – Problematic; Unbundled, Now?
• Irrational and Inefficient Tariff Structure – Untargeted Subsidies, – Notified tariff are below recovery cost – Failure of Government to pay subsidies on time – No Protection to Economic Sector i.e. cross subsidy is
given to domestic sector in both Gas and Electricity; Line losses, delivery Cost and pilferage/nonpayment are very high in domestic sector compared to Industrial
Pakistan's Energy Security
Global Perspective
Source: World Energy Assessment 2001, HIS, WoodMackenzie, BP Stat Review 2005, BP estimates
“The Stone Age did not end for lack of stone, and the Oil Age will end long before the world runs out of oil.” Sheikh Yamani, Saudi Oil Minister, 1962-1986
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Oil Gas Coal
R/P Ratio
41 yrs. R/P Ratio
67 yrs.
R/P Ratio
164 yrs.
Proven Proven
Proven
Yet to Find Yet to Find
Yet to Find
Unconventional
Unconventional
Rese
rves
& R
esou
rces
(bnb
oe)
Source: BP Statistical Review 2006
78%
10%
61%
15%
88%
65%
22%
90%
39%
85%
12%
35%
Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves Consumption Reserves
OIL GAS COAL
3 Largets Energy Markets(N.America + Europe + Asia Pacific)
ROW
as the developed countries have 65% of proven coal reserves.
Reference: IEA 2005
Conventional Oil Reserves Unconventional Oil Reserves
Oil & Gas Consumer
Industrialized Rich, Powerful
National Interest Security of
Supply
Control of Sovereignty
Corporate Control
Military Power
Petrodollar LDC, Poor,
Weak IMF Loan
World Bank
Inter Dependent
Economic Stakes
Strategic Stakes
This slide is reviewed by a leading senior Economist of Pakistan Civil Service
• Muslims have 69% of Oil Reserve and 58% of Gas Reserve of the World; produces 40% of world agriculture production yet most of Muslim population live in state of poverty
• We hold key sea trade routes i.e. Straits of Hormuz, Straits of Malacca and Suez Canal • Global economy rest on foundation of economical supply of plentiful Oil & Gas but Islamic
beliefs strictly prohibits Non-Muslims to have presence in Arab world (esp. K.S.A) Hence, War on Terrorism is aftermath of unhappy marriage of Muslim Arab and West over Oil; So, Arab world (esp. K.S.A) will keep producing terrorists, Pakistan suffers from this!
• Osama used Tribal belt, USA used Tribal belt against Russia, History used these fighters since Alexander. Tribal people are born fighters with harsh & rugged lifestyle. Thus, solution is militarization of Tribal belt of Pakistan and Afghanistan and use it as instrument for Muslim World Energy Security. No wealth is yours if you cannot protect it
This
slid
e is
revi
ewed
by
a se
nior
Def
ense
Ana
lyst
Energy Starved Growing Economy of India
Oil & Gas of Middle East
Energy Rich Land locked Central Asia
Sea Route for China
Gawardar port
Pakistan
Reference: CediGaz
0 %10 %20 %30 %40 %50 %60 %70 %80 %90 %
100 %
Rus
sia
Iran
Qata
r
Sau
di Ara
bia
Unit
ed S
tates
Abu
-Dha
bi
Nige
ria
Ven
ezue
la
Alge
ria
Ind
ones
ia
Ira
q
Aus
tralia
Chin
a
Tu
rkmen
istan
Norw
ay
Mala
ysia
Egy
pt
Kaz
akhs
tan
Kuw
ait
Uzb
ekist
an
Can
ada
Liby
a
Aze
rbaija
n
Neth
erlan
ds
Ind
ia
Ukra
ine
Pak
istan
Boli
via
Oman
Rom
ania
Proven Gas Reserves of world’s top 30 Gas Producing Countries
Proven conventional gas reserves are fairly concentrated…
World Gas Reserves: 6621 TCF
BP Stats 2010
Option for I-P, Q-P and Central Asian Gas pipelines We have access to about one third of World’s Gas…
Natural Gas may continue to be our major supply source in energy mix due to the extensive pipeline infrastructure i.e. transmission & distribution grid
Yoloten-Osman Gas Field
TURKMENISTAN
IRAN
AFGHANISTAN
PAKISTAN
Herat
Char Rah
Kandahar
Quetta
Multan
Lahore
Fazilka
Nawabshah
Iran Shahr Asaluyeh
IP Iran Segment, 56” = 900 Km completed
Pak-Iran Border Delivery Point
‘Mile 250’
IP Pakistan Segment = 785 Km 750 MMcfd, 42/48”
$ 1.245 billion
TAPI Turkmenistan Segment = 145 Km
TAPI Afghanistan Segment = 735 Km
TAPI Pakistan Segment = 800 Km
Sulaimanke
IP Pipeline - 1935 Km Iran Segment – 1150 Km Pakistan Segment – 785 Km
TAPI Pipeline 1,680 Km 3.2 Bcfd, 56” $ 7.6 billion
Iran Shahr to ‘Mile 250’= 250 Km
to be completed Gwadar
Source: ISGS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Pakistan India China USA
31.2 32 23
37
47.5
6
2.5
24
9.2
51 67
22
10.9 3 6
2
1.2 8 1.5 15
Oil Gas Coal Hydel Others
%
US $
Years Source: World Bank
Pakistan’s energy mix to provide affordable and sustainable energy supplies at unsubsidized price to its economy by using of indigenous coal and hydel resources like China and India…
• Adequacy! Can our energy Supplies to meet demand on sustainable Basis?
• Diversity! our energy mix is diverse or not at present? Can it be made to diversify?
• Affordability! Our energy prices are competitive compared to world or not?
• Viability! Sector Governance and Institutional viability of our present mix and future mix…
• Reliability! Are there any risks of physical interruptions in energy supplies?
Way Forward to Energy Security
Our Way… is the Coal Way
There are no speed limits on the Road of Excellence
• Demand Side Management Opportunities – Standardization of Equipment & Appliances – Legal framework for Energy Efficiency – ENERCON to play its role, Introduce ESCOs in private – Off Grid Solutions using R.E, Private Sector for solar – Use of Solar Water Heaters – Differential Tariff, Smart meters, Prepaid Billing… – Mass transport systems – Trust building on Demand side Management – Successful Awareness Campaigns on DSM – Control Power system line losses and UFG
NEGAWATT! MW saved is better than MW produced
Sector Realizable Saving as % of Consumption in FY 2008
Domestic Households 25.8% Commercial Sector 23.9 %
Industry 11.1 % Agriculture 19.6 % Transport 13.9 %
Other Government 2.7 % Sub – Total Demand 15.4 %
Transformation 13.8 % Total Major opportunities: Power , UFG, Appliances, DSM
14.9 % Potential saving 3 Billion US $
per year
• Single integrated Energy policy for all energy sectors i.e. upstream, downstream, R.E, nuclear, Coal etc
• Formation of Ministry of Energy is required as there is lack/difference of collective and integrated plan/view of the Country, Region and the World
• Merge M/o Water & Power and M/o P&NR to work under M/o Energy; OGRA & NEPRA merger to follow up
• M/o Energy must have representative of Planning Commission, M/o Finance, M/o Petroleum & Natural Resources , M/o Water & Power, Federal & Provincial representatives, Regulators, Industry and the consumer so as to form a structured group of professionals drawn from all public and private sectors entities of the country
Power Sector US $ Billion Source Public 27.8 W.G for 10th 5 year Plan
Private 1.0 Major investment in under implementation Hydro
projects is proposed 28.8
Fuel Sector - Oil & Gas Production and refining, LNG Import
11.0 FODP ESTF Report 2010
- Others Pipelines explorations & Coal sector, T&D
10.2 Guestimates
14.2
Total 50 Rs. 850 b/yr
• Gradually and systematically eliminate subsidies from domestic, refinery and fertilizer sectors
• Subsidies should be provided directly through support programs so as to avoid the benefit going to manufacturer, middle men and rent seekers
• Resolve Circular Debt Issue and prevent recurrence • Attract Private Sector Investor • Set up Energy Development Funds through Donors • Develop Bond Markets , Banking Sector (exposure
autonomy, innovative products) • Unbundle and divest public energy sector asset • Improve law and order, stop corruption
• Develop provincial consensus on promotion and development of hydropower generation
• Pre-feasibilities to be made in great number through donors and PSDP fund
• Develop run-of-river projects on massive scale through indigenous resources
• Strengthen engineering and design capacities of relevant institutions required for building large dams and related power equipment
• Develop financial capacities in lending institutions • Power Policy to address evacuation for hydro power
Dam Capacity (MW)
Bunji 7,000
Basha Dam 4,500
Dasu 4320
Kalabagh 3,600
Kohala 1100
Neelam-J 969
Munda 740
Total 22,229
Long Term 8-15 years
Name Project Cost in
Million US $
Installed Capacity in MW
Project Time in years
Diamer Basha 8273 4500 12
Golen Gol 155.7 106 5
Neeium Jhelum 1629.5 969 9
Kurram Tangi 668.7 83 4
Munda 900 740 6
Kohala 2155 1100 6
Keyal Khwar 145.6 122 7
Name Project Cost in
Million US $
Installed Capacity in MW
Project Time in years
Phandar 70 80 4
Dasu 7800 4320 8
Bunji 6838 7000 8
Akhori 3300 600 6
Lower Spatgah 614 567 6
Palas Valley 667 621 6
Kalabagh No estimate 3600 Political Dispute
Units produced/year = 3,600 × 1,000 × 8760 × 0.5
Installed Capacity (MW) of Kalabagh
Conversion factor of Mega to Kilo-Watt
No. of hours in the year i.e 365 days × 24 hours
Assumption that Plant will operate 6 months per year
15,768,000,000 kWh Total Unit Produced/year
=
• Cheap Electricity: Rs- 1.50 per kWh • Nearby Major Load Centers • Water Storage worth tens of Billions Rs. • Extended irrigation, Flood Control • Restore capacity of Tarbela & Chasma • Location is close to the National Grid
Salient Features • Concrete Gravity Dam (Build cost is less) • Dam is connected to both Road/Rail • Last Down Stream location for Dam
before Indus enter in to Sindh plains • Largest catchment area, Most diverse water source, Kabul, Haro,Swan, Indus
1 kiloWatt hours (kWh) is Billing
Unit of Electricity
1 kWh =3412 BTU
Unit Cost determined by NEPRA: Tarbela: Rs. 0.53 Ghazi: Rs 2.20
Mangla: Rs. 0.36 Ave. Hydel: Rs 1
Thermal power producers: IPP/Gencos: 9-17¢/kWh
Rental : ↑20¢/kWh (1$ ≈ 85.25 PKR)
Kalabagh Dam will save 2.5 billion US $/year
(2 times US aid for war on terror) compared to Thermal Power
1. Flooding of Peshawar Valley including Nowshera Backwater effect of Lake would end about 10 miles
downstream of Nowshera. 2. Area of Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi plains would be
adversely affected creating water logging and salinity Lowest ground levels at Mardan, Pabbi and Swabi areas
are 970, 960 and 1000 feet as compared to the maximum conservation level of 915 ft for Kalabagh operation pattern of reservoir cannot block the land drainage and cause water logging or salinity
3. Population Displacement Total population to be relocated is 120,320 of which
78,170 shall be from Punjab and 42,150 from NWFP.
4. No surplus water to fill Kalabagh reservoir Annual average wastage of water is 21 MAF to Sea.
Kalabagh Reservoir will be filled up with 6MAF only, which will gradually be released to the provinces.
5. Anxiety the project would render Sindh into desert Dams don’t consume water but only store water during
flood season and make it available on demand basis. Infact, Sindh will get extra 2.25 MAF for irrigation...
6. Sea Water intrusion estuary would accentuate Data shows that sea water intrusion seems to be at its
maximum even now, and it is unlikely to be aggravated further. Annual average release of even 8.6 MAF below Kotri will be possible to stop the Sea water intrusion
• Hydroelectric Generation at least 26,000 MW by 2025. Implement the Wapda Plan, include Kalabagh
• Renewable Energy resource i.e. Solar & Wind potential for power generation may be very tempting but public sector funding to it should be avoided till technology matures in the world and price goes down. Moreover, these sources are intermittent hence need backup batteries. The battery technology is still very primitive in the world… Leave Wind & Solar for private sector only!
• Hydro power technology is reliable & established, used for decades i.e. divert limited public funding from solar & wind to Major Hydel Power Projects
• Stepped up E&P activities for Oil & Gas by improving drilling intensity from present i.e. one well /1376 sq. km
• Have a formula of making the local population as shareholders in Oil & Gas production areas
• Law & Order situation and terrorism should be addressed appropriately
• Proper well head gas pricing to attract investor • Enhanced Oil Recovery, In Fill Drilling, Tight Gas • R&D projects to promote and accelerate the
exploration activity in unexplored area of the country in order to fill in future energy gaps
ZONE-II
ZONE-I
J&K Disputed Territory
ZONE-II
ZONE-I
ZONE-III
Balochistan Sindh
Punjab
N.W.F.P
ZONE-O Shallow
Deep Super Deep
ONSHORE Zone I: (High Risk High Cost) Zone II: (Medium Risk High to
Medium Cost) Zone III: (Low Risk Low Cost)
OFFSHORE Zone 0: Indus & Makran
Oil & Gas Exploration &
Production Policy 2009
Non-performing Exploratory Licenses
due to security reasons
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• Prioritize use of gas in the following order: – 1) Industry 2) CNG* 3) Power generation 4)
Commercial 5) Domestic (using economic principle) • Eliminate Cross Subsidy in Gas Sale Price i.e.
Domestic and Fertilizer sector • Expand Oil importing facilities
– Up-gradation of Port Qasim – Development of Gwadar Port
• Build strategic relationship with crude suppliers and diversify supply source
• Minimize use of Fuel oil for power generation and industrial usage as its supplies are expected to be restricted and with volatile pricing
• Import of energy – Gas Import
• Pipeline – IPI Central Route – IPI Coastal Route – Qatar Deep Sea Route – TAPI
• LNG – Oil Import – Electricity Import
• Tajkistan • Iran
– Import of Coal – Import of LPG
Year Future Nuclear Power Plants to be added to Grid
Cumulative (MW)
2011 K-1 and C-1 415
2011 340 MW (C-2) 755
2016 340 MW 1095
2017 340 MW 1435
2019 1000 MW 2345*
2021 1000 MW 3345
2022 1000 MW 4345 Source: Integrated Energy Plan, M/o Finance, GoP
The Pak-China link needs to be kept engaged and strengthened Chinese supply capability limited to 300 MW size but larger 1000 MW size possible after 2-3 years NPPs require about 7 years in construction. (Energy Project Cycle) Enhance exploration and infrastructure for mining
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• Development of energy sector esp. Coal & Hydel requires tens of billions of Dollars investmentt. It is paramount to create the enabling environment for investor through: – Develop the Human Resource… Requirement is paramount
for every sector of energy Qualified, competent and trained Human Resource Consistencies and Quality of Policies i.e. Energy, Trade,
Economic, Foreign, Security & Environment Transparency, Impartiality, fairness, reasonableness, Merit
appointments, Systematic & effective implementation, faster decisions, policy shifts, regulatory changes, capacity building
• Revamp the selection and screening process, the salary structure, recognition and reward system, behavioral issues of energy sector organizations
Umar bin Khattab (R.A, Al-Farooq) once gathered people
and asked them to make a wish. They wished that this room may be
filled with gold & silver and they spent it in path of ALLAH. He
asked them again to make a wish they said may this room is filled
with jewels and diamonds and they spent it in path of ALLAH. He
didn’t like and asked them again. They gave up and asked “O Umar
tell us what do we wish, fill this room with what?” He said “I wish
that ALLAH fill this room with men like Abu-Ubaidah ibn al Jarrah
and I send them all in path of ALLAH.”
The people thanked Umar R.A for this wonderful advise…
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• The primary use of coal is power generation worldwide • Today the world gets more than 38 % of its electricity
from coal, China generate 80 %, India generate 66%, USA generate 60% and Pakistan generate 0.1% electricity using coal which is cheap and economical
• In the Asian region 45 % of power is generated from coal, which is expected to increase to 60 % by 2020
• Advanced technologies for coal gasification, clean coal technologies, fuel cells and syngas conversion etc are available but very expensive at present
• Pakistan should focus on conventional open cast integrated mining i.e. power plant near the mine mouth
• Area of the field: 9000 sq. km • Distance from Karachi: 380 Km • Coal seam thickness: 0.2 -22.8m • Coal seam depth: 114-203m • Potential Reserves: 175 Billion Tonnes • Coal category is Lignite having calorific value between
6,200-11,000 BTU/lb, it has high moisture i.e. 47%, ash- 5.75%, low sulphur-1.2% and volatile matter-33%
• There are three aquifers at an average depth of 50m, 120m (above seam) and more than 200m (below seam) which needs hydrological solution. Dune sands, silt stone cover, very high stripping ratio and high moisture content in Thar Coal make Thar mining and power generation challenging…
• The climate of Thar is arid and rating to cool winters and dry and warm summers
• Rainfall is the only source of fresh surface and ground water. The rainfall is limited and occurs during the monsoon season from June-Sept. with a high intensity and low frequency
• The desert itself let flourish natural vegetation of all kinds after rain
• All the tropical crops are grown round the year • Wild life of Thar desert viz; deer antelopes, black buck,
wild ass, and peacock are world wide famous
1 Block I Available for Investment
2 Engro Sindh Coal Mining Company (40% Sindh Government; 60% Engro)
1200 MW
Feasibility study due in June 2010; Strip mining and power generation potential 4000MW, 24 million tons/year for 30 years. PEPCO has also Signed MOU for 1200MW Power Plant
3A
Cougar Energy (Australia) Under Ground Coal Gasification Project
400 MW
Drilling License awarded to an Australian firm Pilot Burn planned in 36 months; Technology planned is Ergo Exergy ; 400MW planned;
4 Bin Daen Group (UAE)) 1000MW
Integrated Coal to power project, 1000MW planned; currently exploring possible partnerships to carry out feasibility studies.
5 Under Ground Coal Gasification Project Dr Samar Mubarakmand
100MW
100 MW planned by the end of 2012. Currently unit gasifier being constructed, technical team has been mobilized and desktop studies for gas handling completed.
6 Oracle, PLC (UK) 600MW
Strip mining; 600MW planned. ESIA completed; anticipate mine commencement Dec. 2011.
Block III B, VII & VIII Available for Investment
• Thar Coal potential can provide Hundred Thousand (100,000) MW of electricity for more than two (2) centuries
• Equivalent to about 617 Billion Barrels of Oil, Worth 30 trillion US $ @ 50$/Barrel More than 2 × Saudi Oil reserves
• Pricing mechanism must provide minimum 16% return on investment for Thar Coal Fired Power Plant
• Open Cast mining at the depth of 145 meter with 3 aquifers will be challenging, So Thar is Medium to Long term option…
• Provide necessary infrastructure and development in Thar area i.e. water, road & security
• Develop policy for Integrated Coal Mining/Power • Put professionals of coal field at the helm
Oil Gas Coal Measured Coal Indicated Coal Inferred
Minham
Bamnia Bhil Jo Tar
Bamnia Bhil Jo Tar
Jagirharho
Islamkot
Dhinkario
Kikari
Sinhar Vikian
Mula Jo Tar
Varvai
Tilvai
Mattu Jo Tar
Khario BLOCK I
BLOCK IV
BLOCK III
Meghe Jo Tar Kharo
Sonalba Singharo
Thae Jo Tar
Jinde Jo Tar
Saleh Jo Tar
B
A
Bhitro
Vakrio
Legend
Drill Holes
Blocks
Villages
Track
BLOCK II
70° 20’ 70° 10’
24°
24°
24°
24° 70° 30’
Pakistan Energy Resource Potential
• Energy Sector is in a critical state • Energy Efficiency & Demand Side Management to get the highest priority • Prepare to live with planned load shedding • Pay for what you Consume policy must be adopted i.e. remove subsidies • Actual availability of resources for Investment may be much less than
planned mainly due to lack of financing & investment, war on terrorism and resulting law & order situation due to the aforementioned war
• Militarize the Tribal belt of Pakistan & Afghanistan and use it as instrument for Muslim World’s Energy Security. United Muslim Army under control of OIC like NATO. It will end the terrorism!
• It is imperative to realize Wapda plan of Hydroelectric Generation of 26,000 MW by 2025 also include Kalabagh Dam. Resolve all disputes!
• Develop Thar Coal, energy secured for centuries • Integrated Energy Planning is the need of the hour • Improve Governance, No Corruption, HRD is the Key…
We must understand that the existence and secure future of Pakistan do not depend on nuclear deterrence and properly guided missiles but on planning and management of our resources by properly guided men.
(‘Men who make the difference’ article by Asim Riaz)
Prepared by: Mr. Asim Riaz, B.Sc Double Math-Physics, B.Sc Mechanical Engineering, Master in Energy Management • Participated in developing and validation of
Pakistan Integrated Energy Model (Pak-IEM) • Member Editorial Board of Pakistan Journal for
Hydrocarbon Research (PJHR) Contact: +92-345-5100667; asim78@gmail.com
I seek refuge of ALLAH from the outcast satan
And you shall see the angels surrounding the Throne
(of ALLAH) on all sides, glorifying the praise of their
Lord; and judgment shall be given between them
with justice, and it shall be said in the end:
Praise be to ALLAH, the Lord of the Worlds! Quran, Az-Zumar, 75
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