oil products market in the middle and southeast europe

OIL PRODUCTS MARKET IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE

Damir Pešut

Robert Fabek

Sanja Živković

Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb

Petroleum products market in the middle and southeast Europe

Petroleum products market in the middle and southeast Europe

Population x 1.000

GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$)

Petroleum products consumption (kg/capita)

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

kg/c

apit

a

Specific consumption of new cars and stock average (EU)

Petroleum products consumption

Petroleum products consumption

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.

1 0

00

t

LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel fuel Extra light fuel oil Fuel oil Other products

Petroleum products production

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.

1 0

00

t

Croatia Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina FYR of Macedonia

Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania

Bulgaria Greece Albania Italy

Austria

Petroleum products production

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.

1 0

00

t

LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil Other products

Petroleum products balance

0

30.000

60.000

90.000

120.000

150.000

180.000

210.000

2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.

1 0

00

t

Production Net exports Consumption

86%

??? %81%

Crude oil balance

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-20.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.

1 0

00

t

Production Import Export Consumption Dependence

Refineries in the middle and southeast Europe

• 34 refineries

• 13 countries

• 185,7 mil. tonnes

• 6 closed

Refining capacities in the middle and southeast Europe

1

1

3

1

2

1

2

11

4

2

1

4

1

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Austria

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Hungary

Croatia

B&H

Serbia

Italy

Greece

Albania

Bulgaria

Romania

FYR Macedonia

Number of refineries per Country

9,6

6,1

9,6

8,1

6,8

4,2

7,3

88,8

21,6

1,5

7,5

12,1

2,5

0 20 40 60 80 100

Austria

Slovakia

Czech Republic

Hungary

Croatia

B&H

Serbia

Italy

Greece

Albania

Bulgaria

Romania

FYR Macedonia

Total capacity of refineries per Country (mt/y)

34 refineries 185,7 mil. tonnes

Complexity of refineries

• NCI 1,9-13,1

14

11

9

Number of refineries

NCI <7 NCI 7-10 NCI >10

53,7; 29%

80,4; 43%

51,6; 28%

Refinery capacity according to NCI (mt/y)

NCI <7 NCI 7-10 NCI >10

Conclusion

• Consumption of petroleum products significantly decreased

• Relative increase of demand for diesel fuel

• Decrease of demand for motor gasoline and fuel oil

• Decrease of utilization of refineries

• Closure of refining capacities

• Slight and slow petroleum products demand growth

• Need for new investments in refineries

• Higher cost of petroleum products

• Further closure of refining capacities

THANK YOU