oil products market in the middle and southeast europe
TRANSCRIPT
OIL PRODUCTS MARKET IN THE MIDDLE AND SOUTHEAST EUROPE
Damir Pešut
Robert Fabek
Sanja Živković
Energy Institute Hrvoje Požar, Zagreb
Petroleum products market in the middle and southeast Europe
Petroleum products market in the middle and southeast Europe
Population x 1.000
GDP per capita (constant 2005 US$)
Petroleum products consumption (kg/capita)
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
1.400
1.600
kg/c
apit
a
Specific consumption of new cars and stock average (EU)
Petroleum products consumption
Petroleum products consumption
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Diesel fuel Extra light fuel oil Fuel oil Other products
Petroleum products production
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
Croatia Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina FYR of Macedonia
Czech Republic Slovakia Hungary Romania
Bulgaria Greece Albania Italy
Austria
Petroleum products production
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
LPG Motor gasoline Jet fuel Gas oil Fuel oil Other products
Petroleum products balance
0
30.000
60.000
90.000
120.000
150.000
180.000
210.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
Production Net exports Consumption
86%
??? %81%
Crude oil balance
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
-20.000
0
20.000
40.000
60.000
80.000
100.000
120.000
140.000
160.000
180.000
200.000
2007. 2008. 2009. 2010. 2011. 2012. 2013. 2014. 2015. 2016. 2017. 2018. 2019. 2020. 2021. 2022. 2023. 2024. 2025.
1 0
00
t
Production Import Export Consumption Dependence
Refineries in the middle and southeast Europe
• 34 refineries
• 13 countries
• 185,7 mil. tonnes
• 6 closed
Refining capacities in the middle and southeast Europe
1
1
3
1
2
1
2
11
4
2
1
4
1
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Austria
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Croatia
B&H
Serbia
Italy
Greece
Albania
Bulgaria
Romania
FYR Macedonia
Number of refineries per Country
9,6
6,1
9,6
8,1
6,8
4,2
7,3
88,8
21,6
1,5
7,5
12,1
2,5
0 20 40 60 80 100
Austria
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Hungary
Croatia
B&H
Serbia
Italy
Greece
Albania
Bulgaria
Romania
FYR Macedonia
Total capacity of refineries per Country (mt/y)
34 refineries 185,7 mil. tonnes
Complexity of refineries
• NCI 1,9-13,1
14
11
9
Number of refineries
NCI <7 NCI 7-10 NCI >10
53,7; 29%
80,4; 43%
51,6; 28%
Refinery capacity according to NCI (mt/y)
NCI <7 NCI 7-10 NCI >10
Conclusion
• Consumption of petroleum products significantly decreased
• Relative increase of demand for diesel fuel
• Decrease of demand for motor gasoline and fuel oil
• Decrease of utilization of refineries
• Closure of refining capacities
• Slight and slow petroleum products demand growth
• Need for new investments in refineries
• Higher cost of petroleum products
• Further closure of refining capacities
THANK YOU