negotiation and the dynamical negotiation network model jochemczyk_lukasz

Sustaining Peace

Negotiation and the Dynamical Negotiation Network Model

systems, applications, interventions

Łukasz Jochemczyk

This project was funded in the framework of the Polish National Science Center grant No. 2011/01/D/HS6/02264

Instead of introduction

● Who am I?– Psychologist University of Warsaw→– Trained in complex systems– Trained in negotiation and mediation– Research on Negotiation, Conflict, NIMBY, Social Dilemmas,

Risk, Time Perspectives ...

● Why I am here?– Understanding communication in negotiation

● Communication result→● Procedural / Distributive satisfaction

● What I bring with me?– Dynamical Negotiation Networks (Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010)

Introductory questions

● Negotiations– Negotiation training– Negotiation practice (eg negotiating pocket money with

parents)– What does it mean to win in negotiation

● Win-win● Sustainable solution

● Complex systems– Complicated vs complex

● Networks– Structure (in-degree, out-degree, betweenness, closeness)

● Fractal geometry

Complicated vs complex

Fractal geometry

Workshop Plan

● About the Dynamical Negotiation Networks model

● Exercise Build your own network→● What can we infer from the model● Summary

Sharedreality

Negotiation communication←

Dynamical Negotiation Network(Jochemczyk & Nowak, 2010)

● Negotiation process in which parties are constructing →a network – shared representation of a problem

● The network is gradually constructed during the negotiation process– Nodes objects / arguments→– Links relations between objects / arguments→

● Changes in one part changes in other parts→● The outcome depends on:

– Dynamics of the network construction – Changes in the network– Structure of the network

9

Productquality

Seller'spressures

Elements:

● Parties' representation „Pressures” →

● Facts / Objects Nodes→

● Relations links→

+–

Interactions in the network

PriceProductquality

Goodreason

NCAA quality

Playing in the USA

Player's quality

Player's age

Player's experience

President's pressures

Agent'spressures

Example – Negotiation of a basketball player's contract

Playing professionally

President's pressures

Agent'spressures

Player's quality

Player's age

Player's experience

Playing in the USA

NCAA quality

Club quality

Experience in the 1'st league

Players' experience

Quality of the sporting

facilities

Foreign players in the club

Player's pay190Player’s 'foreignness’

Player’s development possibilities

150120

Competitive offer

Sponsor

Average league

player’s pay

180170

Network structure● Sources Out-degree←● Sinks In-degree←● Bridges In-betweenness←● Direct influence link to outcome←

– Sponsor● Feedback loop

– Player's quality Player's development →possibilities”

In degreeOut degree

Price

Betweenness

In degree

Out degree

Source

Source

Sink

Sink

Bridge

Exercise1) Read carefully

2) Highlight nodes in the text of the conversation

3) Write down names of the nodes on the post-its

4) Try to play with them arrange them in a →network according to your understanding of the conversation

1) If you are not satisfied with current arrangement →1)Discuss it

2)Try to rearrange it againThink what is the cause and what is the result(which node influences and which node is influenced)

Analysis

● Which nodes / links are crucial for the outcome in your network?

● What to add / change in the network?● What could be done if you are stuck?

The network – my interpretation

How to improve negotiate negotiation?

● Start early● Use your “Sources” ● Build good “Bridge(s)”● Instead of fighting for “Sinks” discuss

consequences● Use the whole network throughout the

negotiation

1 2 3 4 5

Negotiation stage

Me

an fi

nal valu

es o

f ou

t-de

gre

e

of th

e in

trod

uce

d n

od

es

2,5

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

Introduction of key elements Out-degree

time

1 2 3 4 5

Negotiation stage

1,1

1,2

1,3

1,4

1,5Me

an fi

nal valu

es o

f in-d

eg

r ee

of

the

intro

du

ced

no

de

s

Introduction of key elements In – degree

time

Introduction of key elements Betweenness

1 2 3 4 5

Negotiation stage

5,0E-4

1,0E-3

1,5E-3

2,0E-3

2,5E-3

Me

an fi

nal valu

es o

f in-b

etw

ee

nn

ess

of th

e in

trod

uce

d n

od

es

time

1 2 3 4 5

Negotiation stage

0,010

0,015

0,020

0,025

0,030

0,035

0,040Me

an fi

nal valu

es o

f ou

t-close

ne

ss o

f the

intro

du

ced

no

de

s

Distance from the network center: Out-Closeness

time

In-Closeness

1 2 3 4 5

Negotiation Stage

0,022

0,023

0,024

0,025

0,026

0,027

0,028

0,029M

ean

Fin

al I

n -

Clo

sen

ess

1 2 3 4 5

Negotiation stage

10

20

30

40

50

Nu

mb

er o

f intro

du

ced

new

no

de

s

Initial disagreement

Low

High

Network construction dynamics - Nodes

Network construction dynamics - Links

1 2 3 4 5

20

30

40

50

60Nu

mb

er o

intro

du

ced

new

link

s

Initial disagreement

Low

High

Negotiation stage

Negotiators' High vs Low rigidity

←Low rigidity

High rigidity →

Network density in time

1 2 3 4 5

1,10

1,15

1,20

1,25

1,30

1,35

1,40 Initial conflict

LowHigh

Me

an in

/ou

t –de

gre

e

Negotiation stage

High Variability Nodes (HVN)

● Increase both their in-degree and out-degree throughout the whole negotiation.

● The more HVN in negotiation the better result (both win-win & sustainable)

28

HVN Out-Degree→Number of changes of Out-Degree in stages following an introduction

115

132 1 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1 2 3 4

Number of changes

Nu

mb

er

of

no

des

th

at c

ha

ng

e

a g

iven

nu

mb

er o

f ti

mes

29

HVN In–Degree→

121

110 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 1 2 3

Number of changes

Nu

mb

er o

f n

od

es

tha

t ch

an

ge

g

ive

n n

um

be

r o

f ti

me

sNumber of changes of In-Degree in stages following an introduction

Network extraction process1) Competent judges

● Stages:

1)Identifying nodes ● Combining nodes between the judges (Rule “2 of 3”)

2)Naming nodes

3)Identifying connections & indicating node values● Combining connections between the judges (Rule “2 of 3”)

4)Indicating connection strengths● Designated computer program (available around

this summer)

2) Do it on your own● Designated computer program (expected this

fall)

Conclusions

What can we get from DNN model?● See where is the conflict ● Disentangle the conflict● Provide on which elements focus the

communication in order to negotiate constructively

● What to do in order to reach win-win solution

33

Readings

● Jochemczyk, L. W., & Nowak, A. (2010). Constructing a Network of Shared Agreement: A Model of Communication Processes in Negotiations. Group Decision and Negotiation, 19(6), 591–620. doi:10.1007/s10726-009-9165-y

● Jochemczyk, L. W., Pietrzak, J., Zawadzka, A. (in review). Finding Common Ground: Dynamical Negotiation Networks.

34

Questions / Discussion

Lukasz Jochemczyk

LWJ@psych.uw.edu.pl