mansoor ahmed director (mena region) research & advisory colliers international mena ·...

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Mansoor Ahmed

Director (MENA Region) – Research & Advisory

Colliers International MENA

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World Changes Affecting

& Disrupting Real

Estate

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Industry 4.0

Artificial Intelligence

Coworking

Air BNB

Changing Traditional Retail

The Digital Economy

Telemedicine

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Residential

Retail

Offices

Hospitality

Healthcare

Education

Logistics?

The Last Mile Logistic!

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Iconomy

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71%Use mobile

in stores

60%Of all ecommerce

traffic is on a

mobile device

47%Make repeat purchase

through a marketplace

50%Make their first purchase

through a retailer

46%Prefer to buy in

a physical store

SHOPPER-

FIRST FACTS

82%Are willing to have their

product shipped to

home within 24 hours

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RussiaUSD 19 Billion

South KoreaUSD 69 Billion

GermanyUSD 77 Billion

FranceUSD 55 Billion

BrazilUSD 16 Billion

USAUSD 561 Billion

CanadaUSD 44 Billion

UKUSD 93 Billion

JapanUSD 87 Billion

ChinaUSD 740 Billion

Ecommerce Global Market Value

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USD 2.8 Trillion of e-commerce sales in 2018

20% CAGR between 2018 - 2021

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1.2 Million Sqft required for everyBillion Dollars Prologis

53% of delivery costs are in the “last mile” –

BI Business Intelligence Incider

The Truck Route – Already Well Established and Developed

So What About Cairo?

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Consolidation Hub

Micro – hub

Truck Route

Last Mile Route

The Opportunity?

Rapid Delivery Network Service Zone

New Real Estate Asset Class?

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Standby Couriers Pick up

(Centralized Hub)Drop Off

Home

Offices

Stores

Anywhere

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So why and where for

Greater Cairo?

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What Density Map Illustrates Cairo?

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What Density Map Illustrates Cairo?

Karachi50,084 ppl/km2

Shanghai77,726 ppl/km2

London18,769 ppl/km2

New York38,242 ppl/km2

Cairo153,606 ppl/km2

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How Big is the

Egyptian Market?

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20182021

USD 0.6 Billion

USD 1.0 Billion

16% CAGR

41%Internet

penetration rate

26%Smart Phone

Penetration rate

6%Credit Cards

Penetration rate

70%Of population are

below 35 years of

age

Online Sales in Egypt

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18.4%

8.2%

2.5%1.2%

0.4%

Online Retail As a Percentage of Total Retail Sales

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40 Million of

internet users in 2018

10% CAGR

53 Million of

internet users in 2021

41%

Internet Penetration in 2018

51%

Internet Penetration in 2021

8% CAGR

Internet Users In Egypt

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26 Million of smart

phone users in 2018

8% CAGR

33 Million of smart

phone users in 2021

26%

Smart Phone Penetration in 2018

31%

Smart Phone Penetration in 2021

6% CAGR

Smart Phone Users In Egypt

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24 million online buyer in 2018

5.8 million credit cards in 2017

72%Cash

22%Credit card

Preferred online payment method

6%Others (i.e. PayPal)

33 million in 2021

22 million in 2021

40% CAGR

10% CAGR

Online Buyers Payment Preferences

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2010

2011

2012

2017

2015

2018

2019

Online Shopping Evolution

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2010

2011

2012

2017

2015

2018

2019

Growth of Homegrown Logistics/ Couriers

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Sheikh Zayed

city

6th of October city

Pyramids Gardens

Kafr Ghatati

ShubraEl-Kheima

Boulaq

Imbaba

Kerdassa

Haram

Omrania

Monib

KafrTuhmous Giza

DokkiMohandesin

KitkatAgouza

RhodaManial

GardenCity

Zamalek

BoulaqAboul-Ela

Shubra

Faggala

Downtown

Old Cairo

IslamicCairo

Ein El-Sirah

Maadi

Turah

Masarra

Mukattam

Nasr City

Abbassia

Heliopolis

El-Quba

Zatoun(Zeitoun)

Al-Matariya

Marg

Ain Shams

Cairo International

Airport(CAI)

SheratonResidence

El-Hadba El-Wosta

New Cairo City

Obour City

New Heliopolis

Badr City

Shorouk City

Madinaty

Zahra’a Al-

Maadi

Low Density High Density

6th of October city

New Cairo City

Downtown

Maadi

Shubra

Heliopolis

Nasr City

Giza

Shorouk

Population Density In Greater Cairo

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~ 45 mins driving time

~ 60 mins driving time

Downtown Cairo 5KM radius

Shopping Malls

Traffic Density In Greater Cairo

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Low Density High Density

6th of October city

New Cairo City

Downtown

Maadi

Shubra

Heliopolis

Nasr City

Giza

Shorouk

Logistics Hub

Existing Locations In Greater Cairo

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Low Income High Income

6th of October city

New Cairo City

Downtown

Maadi

Shubra

Heliopolis

Nasr City

Giza

Shorouk

Consumers'’ Affordability Levels In

Greater Cairo

Overlay Population Density with

Affordability Levels?

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Government / Embassies expected to

be relocated to New Administrative City

Low Density High Density

6th of October city

New Cairo City

Maadi

Shubra

Heliopolis

Nasr City

Giza

Shorouk

Downtown

So What Locations ?

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Low Density High Density

6th of October city

New Cairo City

Maadi

Shubra

Heliopolis

Nasr City

Giza

Shorouk

Downtown

The Mix & Match

Overlay Population Density with

Affordability Levels?

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Low Income High Income

6th of October city

New Cairo City

Downtown

Maadi

Shubra

Heliopolis

Nasr City

Giza

Shorouk

The Answer!

Opportunities for

Centralized Hubs?

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20% Non-Residential Land Allocation in New Cities

Opportunities Created Through Last Mile?

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20% Non-Residential Land Allocation in New Cities

Opportunities Created Through Last Mile?

Logistics Hubs

Self Pick Up and Drop Off

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Last Mile & Hub Logistics

The

New Generation of Asset Class

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Real Estate

Real Advisors

Real Advice