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Lamb Market: Situation

and Outlook

Lamb Council and American Lamb Board and Policy

Forum

Denver, CO

January 27, 2017

James G. Robb

Director, LMIC

Website: www.lmic.info

6 USDA Members:

ERS

APHIS

GIPSA

13 Associate Members:

AFBF

ASI

NCBA

NPB

CME-Group

Canadian Consortium

Noble Foundation

CoBank

TCFA

CWB

TCU

NWFCS

DLR

28 U.S. Land Grant Universities:NASSWAOBAMS

USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS,

and ERS

Forecasts by – LMIC

25

30

35

40

45

50

JAN APR JUL OCT

Thou. Head

LAMB AND YEARLING SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

JAN APR JUL OCT

Thou. Head

LAMB AND YEARLING DRESSED WEIGHTFederally Inspected, Weekly

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

220

230

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

FEEDER LAMB PRICES3-Market Average; CO, TX & SD; Weekly

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

SLAUGHTER LAMB PRICESNational Direct, Hot Carcass, Weekly

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

BOXED LAMB SINGLE LEG PRICESTrotter Off, 5 Day Rolling Average

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

450

470

490

510

530

550

570

JAN APR JUL OCT

$ Per Cwt.

BOXED LAMB LOIN PRICESTrimmed 4x4, 5 Day Rolling Average

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV

Mil. Pounds

LAMB AND MUTTON IN COLD STORAGEFrozen, End of the Month

Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016

Data Source: USDA-NASS

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Mil. Pounds

US LAMB IMPORTSCarcass Weight, Monthly

Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017

Percent

US LAMB AND MUTTON IMPORTSAs a Percentage of Production, Carcass Weight, Annual

Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

% CHANGE SHEEP AND LAMB INVENTORY

JANUARY 1, 2015 TO JANUARY 1, 2016

Data Source: USDA-NASS

Other States: 10

U.S. Total: 1

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

JAN APR JUL OCT

Thou. Head

MATURE SHEEP SLAUGHTERFederally Inspected, Weekly

Avg. 2011-15 2016 2017

Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Mil. Head

BREEDING EWES 1 YEAR & OLDERProjections, January 1, U.S., Annual

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

40

90

140

190

240

290

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

Thou. Head

COLORADO LAMBS ON FEEDMonthly

Avg. 2010-14 2015 2016

Data Source: USDA-AMS

34.0

35.0

36.0

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

Mil. Pounds

COMMERCIAL LAMB AND MUTTON PRODUCTIONUS, Quarterly

Avg. 2011/15 2016 2017 2018

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

21.5

22.0

22.5

23.0

23.5

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

JAN-MAR APR-JUN JUL-SEP OCT-DEC

Bil. Pounds

Tho

usa

nd

s

TOTAL RED MEAT & POULTRY PRODUCTIONUS, Quarterly

Avg. 2011/15 2016 2017 2018

Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC

QUARTERLY COMMERCIAL SHEEP AND LAMB SLAUGHTER,

PRODUCTION AND LAMB PRICES a

01/26/17

% Chg. Average % Chg. Comm'l % Chg. Sl. Lambs % Chg. Fdr. Lamb % Chg.

Year Comm'l from Dressed from Lamb from Natl. Direct from 3-Market Avg from

Quarter Slaughter Year Ago Weight Year Ago Production Year Ago Carc. Weightb

Year Ago 60-90 lbsc

Year Ago

(1,000 Head) (Lbs.) (Mil. Lbs.) ($/Cwt.) ($/Cwt.)

2015

I 536 -0.4 70 1.2 37.5 0.8 305.98 2.2 208.09 -6.9

II 564 -7.4 69 -0.7 39.1 -8.0 287.94 1.5 195.80 0.5

III 556 -4.6 66 2.1 36.9 -2.6 296.94 0.5 186.07 -6.7

IV 568 -2.1 65 -1.6 36.9 -3.7 301.01 -5.9 179.56 -11.1

Year 2224 -3.7 68 0.2 150.4 -3.5 297.97 -0.6 192.38 -6.1

2016

I 543 1.3 70 0.0 38.0 1.3 270.40 -11.6 201.39 -3.2

II 570 1.1 68 -1.3 39.0 -0.3 257.75 -10.5 193.37 -1.2

III 557 0.2 65 -2.6 36.0 -2.4 297.59 0.2 178.34 -4.2

IV 564 -0.7 65 0.7 36.9 -0.0 300.29 -0.2 166.86 -7.1

Year 2234 0.4 67 -0.8 149.9 -0.3 281.51 -5.5 184.99 -3.3

2017

I d 549 1.1 69 -1.4 37.9 -0.3 274-279 2.3 169-177 -14.1

II e 587 3.1 67 -2.1 39.4 0.9 276-282 8.2 173-182 -8.2

III 557 0.0 64 -1.3 35.5 -1.3 283-289 -3.9 170-180 -1.9

IV 574 1.8 65 -0.4 37.4 1.3 276-284 -6.8 162-173 0.4

Year 2267 1.5 66 -1.3 150.2 0.2 277-283 -0.4 169-178 -6.7

2018

I 564 2.8 70 0.9 39.3 3.7 279-287 2.4 170-182 1.7

II 585 -0.5 68 0.8 39.5 0.3 279-288 1.6 173-185 0.8

III 564 1.3 64 0.8 36.3 2.1 281-291 0.0 170-184 1.1

IV 591 3.1 66 0.6 38.8 3.7 278-289 1.3 164-179 2.4

Year 2304 1.6 67 0.8 153.8 2.4 279-289 1.3 169-183 1.4

a/ Totals may not add due to rounding. d/ Estimated quarter

b/ Slaughter lamb prices are formula purchases on a dressed weight basis. e/ Forecasted quarters

c/ Feeder Lamb Prices are a three market (CO, SD, & TX) average; live weight basis.

Sources: Livestock Slaughter - USDA Publications: Lamb Prices - USDA Livestock Market News: Forecasts - LMIC Projections

Thank You!