soybean situation &outlook
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Soybean Situation &Outlook. Chuck Danehower Extension Specialist – Farm Management. What Affects the Soybean Market?. U.S. Dollar. 77.27. 9.19. What Affects the Soybean Market?. U.S. Dollar Crude Oil. 66.95. 9.19. What Affects the Soybean Market?. U.S. Dollar Crude Oil - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Soybean Situation &Outlook
Chuck DanehowerExtension Specialist – Farm Management
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
77.27
9.19
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
66.95
9.19
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health– Slow Ag news days market follows Dow
9789
9.19
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health– Slow Ag news days market follows Dow
• Index and Commodity Funds
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health
• Index and Commodity Funds
• Weather– Argentina – worst drought in 50 years
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health
• Index and Commodity Funds
• Weather– Argentina – worst drought in 50 years– How did wet Spring affect acres & yields?
• Farmers have said it was the worse planting season ever experienced.
What Affects the Soybean Market?
• U.S. Dollar
• Crude Oil
• U.S. & World Economic Health
• Index and Commodity Funds
• Weather– Argentina – worst drought in 50 years– How did wet Spring affect acres & yields?– Frost concerns have added support to prices
Percent Dropping LeavesSept. 27/5 Yr. Avg.
76%84%
40%56%
41%77%
81%84%
63%81%
76%83%
73%85%
86%90%
74%80%
58%69%
Nationwide 63% 77%
Freeze By Yield Loss R5 65% R6 37% R7 11% R8 0%
Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield, Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009
State Acres(1,000) 2009 2008 5 yr. Avg.
AL 440 37.0 35.0 28.8
AR 3,350 38.0 38.0 36.4
GA 480 34.0 30.0 28.4
IL 9,050 44.0 47.0 47.0
IN 5,480 43.0 45.0 48.3
IA 9,730 52.0 46.0 50.0
KS 3,500 40.0 37.0 36.0
KY 1,430 42.0 34.0 38.5
LA 1,000 35.0 33.0 35.8
MI 1,990 38.0 37.0 39.9
MN 7,100 40.0 38.0 40.7
MS 2,170 41.0 40.0 36.1
MO 5,350 42.0 38.0 39.1
NE 4,650 51.0 46.5 48.4
NC 1,760 34.0 33.0 29.6
Soybeans for Beans, Area Harvested, Yield, Selected States, Forecasted September 1, 2009
State Acres(1,000) 2009 2008 5 yr. Avg.
ND 4,000 30.0 28.0 30.9
OH 4,580 47.0 36.0 44.4
SC 590 27.0 32.0 25.4
SD 4,300 39.0 34.0 35.8
TN 1,560 40.0 34.0 34.2
TX 210 25.0 24.0 28.7
VA 590 35.0 32.0 32.0
WI 1,630 39.0 35.0 39.6
US 76,767 42.3 39.6 41.9
U.S.Soybean Oil
09/10 P 08/09 E 07/08Million pounds
Beg. Stocks 3,100 2,485 3,085
Production 19,180 18,915 20,580
Imports 75 100 65
Supply, Total 22,355 21,500 23,730
Domestic 16,500 16,200 16,200
For methy ester 2,100 1,850 3,245
Exports 3,250 2,200 2,911
Use, total 19,750 18,400 21,246
Ending Stocks 2,605 3,100 2,485
Average Price (c/lb) 32.00 – 36.00 32.25 52.03
33.24
U.S.Soybean Meal
09/10 P 08/09 E 07/08Thousand short tons
Beg. Stocks 300 294 343
Production 40,235 39,456 42,284
Imports 165 100 141
Supply, Total 40,700 39,850 42,768
Domestic 30,800 30,750 33,232
Exports 9,600 8,800 9,242
Use, total 40,400 39,550 42,474
Ending Stocks 300 300 294
Average Price ($/s.t.) 280 330 335.94
288.50
Soybeans ---Supply/Demand ---
2008/09 2009/10
BearishUSDAExpected Bullish
Beginning Stocks(MB) 205 110 110 110
Acres (MA Planted) 75.7 77.7 77.7 77.7
Acres (MA Harvested) 74.6 76.8 76.8 76.3
Yield 39.6 43.3 42.3 41.3
Imports 15 10 10 10
Supply(M. Bu) 3179 3450 3366 3272
Use:
Crushing 1660 1660 1690 1690
Exports 1280 1250 1280 1280
Seed, Feed 129 170 175 175
Ending Stocks 110 370 220 127
Projected Price $10.00 $7.75 $9.10 $10.00
Stocks/Use 3.6% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0%
U.S. Soybean Ending Stocks and Price, 1993-2009
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
$7.00
$8.00
$9.00
$10.00
$11.00
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 F
Mill
ion
Bu
Ending Stocks Price/Bu
Foreign ProductionWASDE-474 September 11, 2009
ArgentinaBillion bushels
09/10 P 08/09 E 07/08
Beg. Stocks .560 .800 .830
Production 1.873 1.176 1.698
Exports .356 .219 .508
Total Domestic Use 1.721 1.475 1.837
Ending Stocks .731 .560 .800
Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
BrazilBillion bushels
09/10 P 08/09 E 07/08
Beg. Stocks .435 .694 .668
Production 2.278 2.094 2.241
Exports .898 1.078 .932
Total Domestic Use 2.171 2.356 2.219
Ending Stocks .547 .435 .694
Foreign Production WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
ChinaBillion bushels
09/10 P 08/09 E 07/08
Beg. Stocks .303 .156 .099
Production .551 .588 .514
Imports 1.415 1.462 1.390
Total Use (includes exports) 1.990 1.886 1.831
Ending Stocks .279 .303 .156
China has committed to buy 430 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. This is 62% of total imports from U.S. and 30% of total imports.
World Supply & Demand WASDE-474 September 11, 2009
Billion bushels
09/10 P 08/09 E 07/08
Beg. Stocks 1.478 1.944 2.311
Production 8.963 7.742 8.125
Imports 2.757 2.732 2.872
Total Domestic Use 8.511 8.136 8.442
Exports 2.831 2.804 2.921
Ending Stocks 1.857 1.478 1.944
9.1925
Summary & Observations• Outside influences are affecting the market.
• Crop is later than normal, yields uncertain.
• Next USDA S & D Report – October 8, 2009– Will there be an acreage surprise?
• Strong Chinese demand, will it continue?
• Acreage estimates for 2010
• Soybean/corn ratio
• Weekly Comments– http://economics.ag.utk.edu/cropcomm.html
• http://economics.ag.utk.edu/careers.html