july 14-16, 2014 103rd annual meeting of the poultry...

July 14-16, 2014 103rd Annual Meeting of the Poultry Science Association

Corpus Christi, Texas

Sponsored by:

“The Role of the Poultry Industry in Feeding the World in 2050” Symposium

Presentations distributed by DuPont with express written permission from the Poultry Science Association

Mega trends affecting the industry in the future PSA 15 July 2014

Prof. Leo den Hartog Director R&D and Quality Affairs Nutreco Wageningen University

Content

3

Our challenge: surging demands

Our challenge: struggling supplies

Issues in animal production

The power of innovation

Consumer acceptance

Take home message

1

3

2

6

5

4

Global population developments

Source: UN World Population Prospects 4

Astonishing growth of world population

especially since World War II

0

1.000.000.000

2.000.000.000

3.000.000.000

4.000.000.000

5.000.000.000

6.000.000.000

7.000.000.000

8.000.000.000

9.000.000.000

- 800

0 v

C.

-5000

v C

.

- 300

0 v

C.

-1000

v C

.

-400

v C. 1

400

600

800

1000

1200

1300

1400

1600

1700

1800

1900

2007

2050

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Current population

6.6 billion

2050 prospect

9.2 billion people

World population in 40 years (mln.)

5

337

577

4054

973

732

448

5231

691

729

1998

Surging demand

6

Growing demand for animal protein

7 billion people consuming on average 37 kg of meat and 83 kg of dairy….

9 billion people consuming on average

50 kg of meat and

99 kg of dairy….

+ 75% + 53%

Production increase needed by 2050:

7

Resources and emissions related to increased dairy demand

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Feedstuffs Bln kg fresh weight

Land Mln ha

Water Bln L

Manure Bln kg fresh weight

Carbon footprint Bln kg CO2eq

Additional resources

Additional emissions

8

Struggling supplies

9

US climate has already changed

10

FAO food price index

11

Broiler feed price development

12

30.25 31.85

37.8 40.25

43.43

0

10

20

30

40

50

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

feed price €/100kg

Top 5 producing areas (%)

Poultry meat

Eggs

1 USA 100 China 100

2 China 72 EU 37

3 Brazil 58 USA 19

4 EU 40 India 12

5 Russia 18 Japan 9

Source: FAO stat 2014

13

Largest population and crop production not in the same countries… (in %)

Region Pop. Corn Wheat Soy

N. America 7.8 44.8 13.3 42.7

S. America 5.8 9.2 2.5 42.6

Europe 11.9 10.8 36.4 1.2

Africa 15.1 7.0 3.8 0.8

Asia 55.9 27.8 37.8 12.4

Oceania 0.4 0.1 3.2 0.0

14

Land grabbing

15

Global food losses and waste

16 FAO 2011

Part of the initial production lost or wasted for meat products at different stages

Sustainability becomes part of our business model

Evolution of food production & consumption

1945-1960: Food security Elimination of poverty

1960-1980: Rationalisation and modernisation 1980-2000: Consciousness Environment, animal welfare, antibiotics, ...

2000-2010: Food safety & food quality Healthy, fresh, tasty, convenient, ... Today & Tomorrow: Technology & Sustainability

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Animal health & welfare Scarcity of resources Biodiversity & climate change

Antibiotic resistance Food security

Reauthorisation of feed additives Medicated feed Zoonoses GMO policy Animal Protein Community impact

Issues in animal production

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Re-authorisation of feed additives

Most existing feed additives (2200) need re-authorisation

• Approvals 600 feed additives withdrawn

• Consequences for labelling and ‘health’ claims

Nutreco involved in >20 strategic dossiers

19

Soya meal63%

Sunflower + rapeseed meal25%

Pulses2%

Dried forages3.0%

Others5%

Fish meals2%

High dependency on raw material imports in EU

Self sufficiency:

• Proteins: 32%

• Soybean: 3%

• Fishmeal: 62%

• Carbohydrates : > 100%

Proteins used in feed (Fefac 2013)

Total compound feed production: 154 mio tons

Total soybean import: 34 mio tons

20

Antibiotic use in the Netherlands

21

Canadian Raised Without Antibiotics poultry meat

22

Sustainable advances in animal protein production (NL)

From 1975 to 2010 animal protein production became more efficient

Milk production per cow

65%

Piglets raised per sow per year

65%

Feed conversion ratio broilers

30%

23

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

gram

Beef cattle

500 1000 1500 10 20 40 500 700 900 50 70 90 40 60

Performance per day

kg milk

Dairy cattle

gram

Growing pigs

%

Laying hens

gram

Broilers

CO

2 e

qu

ival

en

ts (

kg)

Flachowsky & Hachenberg, 2009

Emissions per kg edible protein depending on animal performance

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60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2010

per kg milk per kg broiler meat per kg pig meat

Energy use Carbon footprint Land occupation

25

Sustainable advances in animal protein production (NL)

On average worldwide the productivity of farm animals is 30-40% below their genetic potential because of

suboptimal conditions and health status

The power of innovation for sustainable

animal production

(Gen)omics:

Radical changes

Micro system- and Nanotechnology:

Radical changes

Information and Communication

Technology:

Continuous changes

27

Research is key

28

Animal Nutrition research centres

29

Swine Poultry

Agresearch

Ruminants

Ingredients Food

Key focus areas for innovation at Nutreco

30

Nutreco sustainability vision 2020

| 31

Health & Welfare: Intestinal health

Structural protective barrier

2

1 A stable microbiota population

32

Microbiota diversity correlated with animal health

Colon

Ileum

Jejunum

Control Treatment Bar-coded pyrosequencing

33

Increased bioavailability in broilers

Nutreco R&D, 2010

Animals: 7 day old chicks individually fed; 12 broilers per diet sampled for serum zinc

Duration: 14 days feeding

Treatments: Basal diet: 26,3 ppm zinc; added 5, 10 or 20 ppm zinc

34

a

b

Zinc sulphate Optimin

Consumer acceptance

Simmons,2011

43,48

31,51

23,02

Why?

Taste

Cost

Nutrition

Other

95% of consumers are food buyers

• Food produced by modern agriculture

• Neutral or supportive of using efficiency-enhancing technologies to grow food

4% are lifestyle buyers

• Ethnicity and vegetarianism, organic, local and Fair Trade

• Money is not a factor 35

New model

•Optimise sustainable profitability

•Balance: Economy, ecology & society

Old model

• Maximise productivity

• Food security

• Productivity & Rationalisation

Current model

• Optimise profitability

• Efficiency

The future of animal feeding:

a change in business model is required

Sustainable Precision Livestock Farming

36

Thank you