july 14-16, 2014 103rd annual meeting of the poultry...
TRANSCRIPT
July 14-16, 2014 103rd Annual Meeting of the Poultry Science Association
Corpus Christi, Texas
Sponsored by:
“The Role of the Poultry Industry in Feeding the World in 2050” Symposium
Presentations distributed by DuPont with express written permission from the Poultry Science Association
Mega trends affecting the industry in the future PSA 15 July 2014
Prof. Leo den Hartog Director R&D and Quality Affairs Nutreco Wageningen University
Content
3
Our challenge: surging demands
Our challenge: struggling supplies
Issues in animal production
The power of innovation
Consumer acceptance
Take home message
1
3
2
6
5
4
Global population developments
Source: UN World Population Prospects 4
Astonishing growth of world population
especially since World War II
0
1.000.000.000
2.000.000.000
3.000.000.000
4.000.000.000
5.000.000.000
6.000.000.000
7.000.000.000
8.000.000.000
9.000.000.000
- 800
0 v
C.
-5000
v C
.
- 300
0 v
C.
-1000
v C
.
-400
v C. 1
400
600
800
1000
1200
1300
1400
1600
1700
1800
1900
2007
2050
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
Current population
6.6 billion
2050 prospect
9.2 billion people
World population in 40 years (mln.)
5
337
577
4054
973
732
448
5231
691
729
1998
Surging demand
6
Growing demand for animal protein
7 billion people consuming on average 37 kg of meat and 83 kg of dairy….
9 billion people consuming on average
50 kg of meat and
99 kg of dairy….
+ 75% + 53%
Production increase needed by 2050:
7
Resources and emissions related to increased dairy demand
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Feedstuffs Bln kg fresh weight
Land Mln ha
Water Bln L
Manure Bln kg fresh weight
Carbon footprint Bln kg CO2eq
Additional resources
Additional emissions
8
Struggling supplies
9
US climate has already changed
10
FAO food price index
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Broiler feed price development
12
30.25 31.85
37.8 40.25
43.43
0
10
20
30
40
50
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
feed price €/100kg
Top 5 producing areas (%)
Poultry meat
Eggs
1 USA 100 China 100
2 China 72 EU 37
3 Brazil 58 USA 19
4 EU 40 India 12
5 Russia 18 Japan 9
Source: FAO stat 2014
13
Largest population and crop production not in the same countries… (in %)
Region Pop. Corn Wheat Soy
N. America 7.8 44.8 13.3 42.7
S. America 5.8 9.2 2.5 42.6
Europe 11.9 10.8 36.4 1.2
Africa 15.1 7.0 3.8 0.8
Asia 55.9 27.8 37.8 12.4
Oceania 0.4 0.1 3.2 0.0
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Land grabbing
15
Global food losses and waste
16 FAO 2011
Part of the initial production lost or wasted for meat products at different stages
Sustainability becomes part of our business model
Evolution of food production & consumption
1945-1960: Food security Elimination of poverty
1960-1980: Rationalisation and modernisation 1980-2000: Consciousness Environment, animal welfare, antibiotics, ...
2000-2010: Food safety & food quality Healthy, fresh, tasty, convenient, ... Today & Tomorrow: Technology & Sustainability
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Animal health & welfare Scarcity of resources Biodiversity & climate change
Antibiotic resistance Food security
Reauthorisation of feed additives Medicated feed Zoonoses GMO policy Animal Protein Community impact
Issues in animal production
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Re-authorisation of feed additives
Most existing feed additives (2200) need re-authorisation
• Approvals 600 feed additives withdrawn
• Consequences for labelling and ‘health’ claims
Nutreco involved in >20 strategic dossiers
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Soya meal63%
Sunflower + rapeseed meal25%
Pulses2%
Dried forages3.0%
Others5%
Fish meals2%
High dependency on raw material imports in EU
Self sufficiency:
• Proteins: 32%
• Soybean: 3%
• Fishmeal: 62%
• Carbohydrates : > 100%
Proteins used in feed (Fefac 2013)
Total compound feed production: 154 mio tons
Total soybean import: 34 mio tons
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Antibiotic use in the Netherlands
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Canadian Raised Without Antibiotics poultry meat
22
Sustainable advances in animal protein production (NL)
From 1975 to 2010 animal protein production became more efficient
Milk production per cow
65%
Piglets raised per sow per year
65%
Feed conversion ratio broilers
30%
23
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
gram
Beef cattle
500 1000 1500 10 20 40 500 700 900 50 70 90 40 60
Performance per day
kg milk
Dairy cattle
gram
Growing pigs
%
Laying hens
gram
Broilers
CO
2 e
qu
ival
en
ts (
kg)
Flachowsky & Hachenberg, 2009
Emissions per kg edible protein depending on animal performance
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60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010
per kg milk per kg broiler meat per kg pig meat
Energy use Carbon footprint Land occupation
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Sustainable advances in animal protein production (NL)
On average worldwide the productivity of farm animals is 30-40% below their genetic potential because of
suboptimal conditions and health status
The power of innovation for sustainable
animal production
(Gen)omics:
Radical changes
Micro system- and Nanotechnology:
Radical changes
Information and Communication
Technology:
Continuous changes
27
Research is key
28
Animal Nutrition research centres
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Swine Poultry
Agresearch
Ruminants
Ingredients Food
Key focus areas for innovation at Nutreco
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Nutreco sustainability vision 2020
| 31
Health & Welfare: Intestinal health
Structural protective barrier
2
1 A stable microbiota population
32
Microbiota diversity correlated with animal health
Colon
Ileum
Jejunum
Control Treatment Bar-coded pyrosequencing
33
Increased bioavailability in broilers
Nutreco R&D, 2010
Animals: 7 day old chicks individually fed; 12 broilers per diet sampled for serum zinc
Duration: 14 days feeding
Treatments: Basal diet: 26,3 ppm zinc; added 5, 10 or 20 ppm zinc
34
a
b
Zinc sulphate Optimin
Consumer acceptance
Simmons,2011
43,48
31,51
23,02
Why?
Taste
Cost
Nutrition
Other
95% of consumers are food buyers
• Food produced by modern agriculture
• Neutral or supportive of using efficiency-enhancing technologies to grow food
4% are lifestyle buyers
• Ethnicity and vegetarianism, organic, local and Fair Trade
• Money is not a factor 35
New model
•Optimise sustainable profitability
•Balance: Economy, ecology & society
Old model
• Maximise productivity
• Food security
• Productivity & Rationalisation
Current model
• Optimise profitability
• Efficiency
The future of animal feeding:
a change in business model is required
Sustainable Precision Livestock Farming
36
Thank you