international clivar structure, activities and future directions valery detemmerman joint planning...

International CLIVAR Structure, Activities and Future Directions

Valery DetemmermanJoint Planning Staff

World Climate Research Programme

Geneva, Switzerland

Established 1980

Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1992+)

WCRP Overview

Objectives

♦ To determine the predictability of climate

♦ To determine the effect of human activities on

climate

ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000

SPARC 1992

GEWEX 1988

CLIVAR 1995

WOCE 1983-1990-2002

TOGA 1983-1985-1994

WGNEWGCMWGSF

WCRP Projects

Intl CLIVAR ObjectivesIntl CLIVAR Objectives• Understand the physical processes Understand the physical processes

responsible for responsible for climate variability and climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales …decadal, and centennial time-scales …

• Extend the range and accuracy of Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction seasonal to interannual climate prediction ……

• Extend the record of climate variability …Extend the record of climate variability …• Understand, predict and detect Understand, predict and detect the the

anthropogenic modificationanthropogenic modification of the natural of the natural climate signal.climate signal.US CLIVAR objectives provide effective US CLIVAR objectives provide effective

match to thesematch to these

CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

CLIVAR - global view

Basin Panels – Atmos&Oc

• Atlantic• Pacific• Southern Ocean• Indian Ocean (with GOOS)

Major activities

• Atlantic thermohaline circ. variability, Atlantic predictability, Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE)

• Southern Pacific Workshop (w/GOOS, ARGO..)• Indian Ocean Implementation Plan• S. Oc in the International Polar Year

Monsoon Panels

• Asia – Australia (AAMP)• Americas (VAMOS)• African Climate Variability (VACS)

Major Activities

• Monsoon modelling workshop (w/GEWEX..)• North American Monsoon Experiment• S. Am Low Level Jet Experiment• La Plata Basin (w/ GEWEX, GEF)• African Monsoon (AMMA)• African Climate Atlas• East Africa workshop

Global Panels - Modelling

• Working Group on Coupled Modelling (w/JSC, WGCM)

• Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP)

• Working Group on Ocean Model Development

Major activities

• IPCC input• regional panels analyses of output- feedback• Ensemble techniques • Ocean component of climate models

Global Panels- cross-cutting

• Global Observations and Synthesis Panel (GSOP)• PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection• Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and

Indices (w/ WMO Commission on Climatology)

Major activities•GSOP – data requirements, policy, reanalysis

•PAGES/CLIVAR – workshops

•ET CCD & Indices

CLIVAR Assessment

• Organised by:– CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to

the Science & Implementation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs

– Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling– Overall programme structure & the ICPO

CLIVAR self-assessment• assessors

– Seasonal-Interannual: Ed Sarachik– Decadal-Centennial: Fritz Schott– Anthropogenic Climate Change: Mike Manton– Modelling: David Anderson– “Data”: Neville Smith– Structure: Jurgen Willebrand

• Inputs– Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire– CLIVAR web pages & documents– Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions– CLIVAR Conference

• Outcomes– Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13– Report on web– Continuing analysis, SSG-14

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment:

Reconfirmed 4 major Foci

• ENSO• Monsoons• Decadal climate variability-THC• Anthropogenic climate change

• On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four “total programme” themes.

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment:

Science Priorities

• Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback

• Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC• Links between process studies & model

improvement

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment:

Future priorities

• CLIVAR visibility and networking• Overall CLIVAR data and information

management

• Applications of CLIVAR science

US CLIVAR Reorganization

• Balanced climate research agenda – understanding, prediction, linkages to users of climate info

• Engage more of scientific community

US and international CLIVAR

• US CLIVAR activities occur within the framework of international CLIVAR

• The US is a key player in international CLIVAR

• One measure is US membership of the CLIVAR SSG, Panels and Working Groups

US Membership of CLIVAR SSG, Panels & Working Groups 2004

US members US Ex Officio US Chairs

SSG 6/13 2/4 1/2

WGCM 3/11 Vice chair

WGSIP 3/11 1/2

WGOMD 3/10

GSOP 4/11 1/2

ETCCD 1/8

CLIVAR/PAGES 3/11

Atlantic 3/11 1/2

Pacific 3/12* 1/2

Indian Ocean 4/14

Southern Ocean 5/12

AAMP 3/9* 1/2

VACS 5/11 1/2

VAMOS 6/13 1/2 * membership under revision

Functions of the ICPO

• Coordinate & encourage international participation in CLIVAR

• Support CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups

• Manage CLIVAR information flow (web, Exchanges)

Current ICPO Staff - key responsibilities 2005

• Howard Cattle (100%): Director, ICPO, JSC, SSG, ICPO management, links to other programmes, editor Exchanges

• Roberta Boscolo (50%): Atlantic, VACS, WGOMD

• Carlos Ereño (25%): VAMOS, Latin American contacts

• Mike Sparrow (30%): Southern Ocean

• Nico (100%): Pacific, TIP, GSOP, data issues, links with carbon programmes

• New Staff person (100%): Modelling, ETCCD, CLIVAR-PAGES, Indian Ocean, AAMP

• Sandy Grapes (100%): secretariat, technical editor Exchanges

US and international CLIVAR

• Good fit US to Intl CLIVAR• Much to be gained by intl collaboration• Maintain links via panels, working groups,

workshops and via ICPO and Exchanges

“….it is recognized that strong linkages to the international CLIVAR ..panels must

continue in order to leverage and coordinate significant international

investments in climate science.”

EOS July 2005