U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

U.S. CLIVAR ReportHighlights from the Panels

U.S. CLIVAR ReportHighlights from the Panels

U.S. CLIVAR, thru its Committee and Panels, serves to guide and implement the CLIVAR research program (aimed toward developing a predictive understanding of climate) in the broad functional goals of

i) predictability/prediction; ii) process and model improvement, and iii) phenomena/observations/synthesis.

The Panels develop and coordinate research plans and activities, provide input to agency programs, and assess achievement using measurable performance metrics

U.S. CLIVAR, thru its Committee and Panels, serves to guide and implement the CLIVAR research program (aimed toward developing a predictive understanding of climate) in the broad functional goals of

i) predictability/prediction; ii) process and model improvement, and iii) phenomena/observations/synthesis.

The Panels develop and coordinate research plans and activities, provide input to agency programs, and assess achievement using measurable performance metrics

US CLIVAR Summit 15-17July 2009US CLIVAR Summit 15-17July 2009

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

U.S. CLIVAR Themes(formerly Foci)

U.S. CLIVAR Themes(formerly Foci)

I Drought

II Decadal Variability/Predictions

Science Themes Are Increasingly Being Motivated by Interactions with Service and

Decision Making Communities

I Drought

II Decadal Variability/Predictions

Science Themes Are Increasingly Being Motivated by Interactions with Service and

Decision Making Communities

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

International CLIVAR

US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee

Ex-Com (3 persons)

Pan

els

Predictability, Predictions &

Applications Interface (PPAI)

Working Groups (short-term)

Inter-Agency Group (IAG)Federal Program Managers

Process Studies & Model improvement (PSMI)

Phenomenology, Observations, & Synthesis

(POS)

Co

mm

itte

eW

ork

ing

G

rou

ps

U.S. CLIVAR Office

As of June 2009:• Western Boundary Current• High Latitude Air-Sea Fluxes• Decadal Predictability• AMOC (Incubated) http://www.atlanticmoc.org/• MJO (finished)• Drought (finished)

U.S. CLIVAR OrganizationU.S. CLIVAR Organization

“Best Practices”,Recommendations

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Process Study & Model Improvement Panel (PSMI)

Co-Chairs: Sonya Legg, Paquita Zuidema

Process Study & Model Improvement Panel (PSMI)

Co-Chairs: Sonya Legg, Paquita Zuidema

Mission: to reduce uncertainties in climate models through an improved understanding and

representation of the physical processes governing climate and its variations.

Mission: to reduce uncertainties in climate models through an improved understanding and

representation of the physical processes governing climate and its variations.

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

PSMI Guidance for Climate Process and Modeling Teams

PSMI Guidance for Climate Process and Modeling Teams

PSMIP performed review of pilot CPTs:best practices for future CPTs• CPT (joint NSF + NOAA) AO: $3M+/yr funding; proposals on ocean, atmos, polar/ice

sheet, coupled processes• Modeling centers from NSF (NCAR), NOAA (GFDL/NCEP), NASA (GMAO), DOE

(LLNL) encouraged to participate

PSMIP review is a critical component of the AO° CPTs now accepted as effective framework in USGCRP and WCRP

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

BAMS, July 2009Nowcast

Best Practices forProcess Studies

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

VOCALS analysis/modeling assessment well underway, 2nd working meeting earlier this week……

VOCALS Regional Experiment Oct-Nov 2008

PSMIP Goal: Use field studies to quantify climatically important processes (provide observing system guidance)

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

DIMES DYNAMO

Diapycnal and Isopycnal Mixing Experiment in theSouthern Ocean (US/UK)

-US cruise early 2009

DYNAmics of the MjO

Proposed US componentto international field exp. intropical Indian Ocean

Further discussion led by Chidong Zhang

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Phenomenology, Observations and Synthesis Panel (POS)

Co-Chair: Mike Alexander, Sarah Gille

Phenomenology, Observations and Synthesis Panel (POS)

Co-Chair: Mike Alexander, Sarah Gille

Mission: To improve the understanding of climate variations in the past, present, and

future; develop syntheses of critical climate parameters; and sustain/improve the global

climate observational system

Mission: To improve the understanding of climate variations in the past, present, and

future; develop syntheses of critical climate parameters; and sustain/improve the global

climate observational system

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Activities of the POS Panel • Data Stewardship

– Worked with GRACE satellite team to support better archiving of NOAA DART pressure gauge data collected as part of tsunami warning system.

– Ongoing discussions/draft text on “best practices for ocean data stewardship” and strategies for “orphan” data with no natural archival home.

• Ecosystems & Climate– NCAR Advanced Study Program Colloquium,

August 2-14 2009

• Integrated Earth System Analysis - Identified as an important area of new

scientific activity.

• Extreme Events/ Tipping Possible involvement in UT Austin workshop

• OceanObs’09

POS members have contributed to white papers for the

meeting

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Zonal average ΔT.

Argo shows the pattern of multi-decadal ocean warming. From Roemmich and Gilson (2009) [5Yr ARGO Mean - Climatological data (World Ocean Atlas 2001)]

Courtesy of Dean Roemmich, SIO)

0-100 m ΔT

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Predictions, Predictability, and ApplicationsInterface Panel (PPAI)

Co-Chairs:Arun Kumar, Ben Kirtman

Predictions, Predictability, and ApplicationsInterface Panel (PPAI)

Co-Chairs:Arun Kumar, Ben Kirtman

Mission: To foster improved practices in the provision, validation and uses of climate information

and forecasts through coordinated participation within the U.S. and international climate science and

applications communities.

Mission: To foster improved practices in the provision, validation and uses of climate information

and forecasts through coordinated participation within the U.S. and international climate science and

applications communities.

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

• Decadal Predictability Working Group - WG and its terms of references formed, WG meeting in June ‘09

• Drought Working Group – J. Climate Special Issue

• World Climate Conference

– 3 White Papers on Seasonal Forecast Producers and Users

• International Group on Attribution of Climate Related Events

- first meeting of group in January 2009, Boulder CO.

• OceanObs’09

- organizing committee, contribution to community white paper

• NRC Predictability Study on ISI time-scale

• WGSIP - Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP)

Activities of the PPAI Panel

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Toward Developing a Predictive Understanding of Climate: Advances in Understanding

• Natural Variability and Warming Trends –

Understanding Recent cooling

(Easterling & Wehner, GRL 2008)

• Oceans role in terrestrial temperature trends (Compo & Sardeshmukh, Clim.

Dyn., 2008; Hoerling et al., GRL 2008)

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Toward Developing a Predictive Understanding

of Climate: Emerging Issues• Explaining Causes for Eastern Pacific SST Cooling

•

• Extent of Natural

Low-Freq Variability

– Warming hole in the Eastern US

– LF ENSO variability and variation in skill

– 2008 NA cooling

• Initialized Decadal

Predictions

– Understanding the 70’s climate shift:

Forced vs. Internal (Meehl et al., J. Climate 2008)

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Integrated US CLIVAR Approach to DroughtPhysics of drought-relevant processes: ° land surface interaction/cloud feedbacks/SSTs

Relevant field campaigns for focused process study

---NAME, DYNAMO, IASCLIP & CPTs ---DRICOMP

Attributing the causes for drought variability: ° analysis of the earth system (conditions & forcings)

Relevant data/analysis strategies --- land and ocean data assimilation (surface/subsurface/deep ocean)

° diagnosis & simulation of historical period Case studies, intercomparison, assessing factors driving variability --- role of SSTs/land surface/aerosols/GHG forcing

Predictability of drought: ° determining simulation skill and hindcast skill

Relevant multi-model intercomparisons --- AMIP (uncoupled, unintialized), Drought WG --- DEMETER (coupled, initialized) --- CMIP4 (coupled uninitialized/initialized with GHG frcg).

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Integrated US CLIVAR Approach to Decadal Variability

Processes Contributing to Decadal Variability : ° Observed vs modeled key physical oceanic processes

Relevant field campaigns for focused process study ---KESS, CLIMODE, DIMES

Attributing the causes for decadal variability: ° Distinguishing natural from anthropogenic factors --- Indian Ocean warming trend --- AMOC/AMO and the recent warmth

Decadal predictability: ° Determining best prediction strategies (Decadal WG metrics) --- predictability due to GHG forcing alone --- predictability from initialization..which earth system elements? --- numerical vs empirical, coupled vs uncoupled approaches ° Perfect prog skill vs Hindcast skill --- what are the current limits to decadal predictability? --- what are data and model requirements to harvest skill?

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Extra Slides

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Historical ENSO

Nino 3.4 SST anomaly from the most recent SODA ocean reanalysis that goes from 1890-2005 showing strong El Nino events at the beginning of the 20th Century. Ben Giese, TAMU

U.S

. C

LIV

AR

Pro

gra

mU

.S.

CLI

VA

R P

rog

ram

Ocean Observations Assimilation

Depicts large array of elements going into the 1/6 degree resolution regional "eddying" Southern Ocean State Estimate (SOSE). Assimilated observations include Argo, CLIVAR repeat hydrography, altimetry, data from CTDs attached to elephant seals, and now data from IPY. In contrast with SODA, which covers a century-long time period, SOSE has focused on just a few years (initially 2005-06, and now extending onward), with a goal of incorporating all available quality-controlled data.

Matt Mazloff, SIO