international clivar structure, activities and future directions valery detemmerman joint planning...
TRANSCRIPT
International CLIVAR Structure, Activities and Future Directions
Valery DetemmermanJoint Planning Staff
World Climate Research Programme
Geneva, Switzerland
Established 1980
Sponsors: WMO (1980+), ICSU (1980+) and IOC (1992+)
WCRP Overview
Objectives
♦ To determine the predictability of climate
♦ To determine the effect of human activities on
climate
ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000
SPARC 1992
GEWEX 1988
CLIVAR 1995
WOCE 1983-1990-2002
TOGA 1983-1985-1994
WGNEWGCMWGSF
WCRP Projects
Intl CLIVAR ObjectivesIntl CLIVAR Objectives• Understand the physical processes Understand the physical processes
responsible for responsible for climate variability and climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales …decadal, and centennial time-scales …
• Extend the range and accuracy of Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction seasonal to interannual climate prediction ……
• Extend the record of climate variability …Extend the record of climate variability …• Understand, predict and detect Understand, predict and detect the the
anthropogenic modificationanthropogenic modification of the natural of the natural climate signal.climate signal.US CLIVAR objectives provide effective US CLIVAR objectives provide effective
match to thesematch to these
CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas
CLIVAR - global view
Basin Panels – Atmos&Oc
• Atlantic• Pacific• Southern Ocean• Indian Ocean (with GOOS)
Major activities
• Atlantic thermohaline circ. variability, Atlantic predictability, Tropical Atlantic Climate Experiment (TACE)
• Southern Pacific Workshop (w/GOOS, ARGO..)• Indian Ocean Implementation Plan• S. Oc in the International Polar Year
Monsoon Panels
• Asia – Australia (AAMP)• Americas (VAMOS)• African Climate Variability (VACS)
Major Activities
• Monsoon modelling workshop (w/GEWEX..)• North American Monsoon Experiment• S. Am Low Level Jet Experiment• La Plata Basin (w/ GEWEX, GEF)• African Monsoon (AMMA)• African Climate Atlas• East Africa workshop
Global Panels - Modelling
• Working Group on Coupled Modelling (w/JSC, WGCM)
• Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (WGSIP)
• Working Group on Ocean Model Development
Major activities
• IPCC input• regional panels analyses of output- feedback• Ensemble techniques • Ocean component of climate models
Global Panels- cross-cutting
• Global Observations and Synthesis Panel (GSOP)• PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection• Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and
Indices (w/ WMO Commission on Climatology)
Major activities•GSOP – data requirements, policy, reanalysis
•PAGES/CLIVAR – workshops
•ET CCD & Indices
CLIVAR Assessment
• Organised by:– CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to
the Science & Implementation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs
– Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling– Overall programme structure & the ICPO
CLIVAR self-assessment• assessors
– Seasonal-Interannual: Ed Sarachik– Decadal-Centennial: Fritz Schott– Anthropogenic Climate Change: Mike Manton– Modelling: David Anderson– “Data”: Neville Smith– Structure: Jurgen Willebrand
• Inputs– Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire– CLIVAR web pages & documents– Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions– CLIVAR Conference
• Outcomes– Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13– Report on web– Continuing analysis, SSG-14
Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment:
Reconfirmed 4 major Foci
• ENSO• Monsoons• Decadal climate variability-THC• Anthropogenic climate change
• On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four “total programme” themes.
Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment:
Science Priorities
• Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback
• Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC• Links between process studies & model
improvement
Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment:
Future priorities
• CLIVAR visibility and networking• Overall CLIVAR data and information
management
• Applications of CLIVAR science
US CLIVAR Reorganization
• Balanced climate research agenda – understanding, prediction, linkages to users of climate info
• Engage more of scientific community
US and international CLIVAR
• US CLIVAR activities occur within the framework of international CLIVAR
• The US is a key player in international CLIVAR
• One measure is US membership of the CLIVAR SSG, Panels and Working Groups
US Membership of CLIVAR SSG, Panels & Working Groups 2004
US members US Ex Officio US Chairs
SSG 6/13 2/4 1/2
WGCM 3/11 Vice chair
WGSIP 3/11 1/2
WGOMD 3/10
GSOP 4/11 1/2
ETCCD 1/8
CLIVAR/PAGES 3/11
Atlantic 3/11 1/2
Pacific 3/12* 1/2
Indian Ocean 4/14
Southern Ocean 5/12
AAMP 3/9* 1/2
VACS 5/11 1/2
VAMOS 6/13 1/2 * membership under revision
Functions of the ICPO
• Coordinate & encourage international participation in CLIVAR
• Support CLIVAR Panels and Working Groups
• Manage CLIVAR information flow (web, Exchanges)
Current ICPO Staff - key responsibilities 2005
• Howard Cattle (100%): Director, ICPO, JSC, SSG, ICPO management, links to other programmes, editor Exchanges
• Roberta Boscolo (50%): Atlantic, VACS, WGOMD
• Carlos Ereño (25%): VAMOS, Latin American contacts
• Mike Sparrow (30%): Southern Ocean
• Nico (100%): Pacific, TIP, GSOP, data issues, links with carbon programmes
• New Staff person (100%): Modelling, ETCCD, CLIVAR-PAGES, Indian Ocean, AAMP
• Sandy Grapes (100%): secretariat, technical editor Exchanges
US and international CLIVAR
• Good fit US to Intl CLIVAR• Much to be gained by intl collaboration• Maintain links via panels, working groups,
workshops and via ICPO and Exchanges
“….it is recognized that strong linkages to the international CLIVAR ..panels must
continue in order to leverage and coordinate significant international
investments in climate science.”
EOS July 2005