integrating ethics into graduate training in the environment sciences series unit 6: ethical issues...

Integrating Ethics into Graduate Training in the Environment Sciences Series

Unit 6: Ethical issues implicit in cost-benefit analyses of climate management

AUTHOR: KENNETH DAVISDepartment of Meteorology

Penn State University

MODIFIED BY: SETH BAUMDepartment of Geography

Penn State University

With input from Klaus Keller and Nancy Tuana

– What value judgments are embedded in cost-benefit analyses of optimal climate management strategies?

– Can we articulate the value judgments that are implicit in a given analysis framework?

– Is there a valid case for “ethical uncertainty” in climate management cost-benefit analyses?

– What, if any, are the implications for your research?

– What are the implications for ethical use of the results of such cost-benefit analyses?

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Questions for discussion

– Review governing equations and results from two important cost-benefit analyses

• Nordhaus, 1992 (“N 1992” for short)

• McInerny and Keller, 2007 (“MK 2007” for short)

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Background

Governing Equations (N 1992)

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Eqn. 2, N 1992

Eqn. 4, N 1992

Eqn. 1, N 1992

Eqn. 3, N 1992

Eqn. 13, N 1992

Governing Equations (MK 2007)

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Eqn. 2, MK 2007

Eqn. 1, MK 2007

Constraint:Prob[MOC collapse] ≤ threshold- Thresholds: 1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.01

Sec. 5-6, MK 2007

Results: Abatement (N 1992)

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Abatement Rate =Emissions under abatement

Uncontrolled emissions

Optimal

Uncontrolled

Emissions Stabilization

Climate Stabilization

Results: GHG’s (N 1992)

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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in tons C.

Optimal

Uncontrolled

Emissions Stabilization

Climate Stabilization

Results: Temperature (N 1992)

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Optimal

Uncontrolled

Emissions Stabilization

Climate Stabilization

Global temperature increase (°C) relative to 1900.

Results: Carbon Tax (N 1992)

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OptimalUncontrolled

Emissions Stabilization

Climate Stabilization

Global carbon tax rate in US $ per ton C.

Note: $1000 per ton C = $2.66 per gallon.

Results: Economic Output (N 1992)

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Optimal

Uncontrolled

Emissions Stabilization

Climate Stabilization

Geoengineering

Differencein output

= Output – Output withno abatement

Note: Economic output measured in US $.

Results: Consumption (N 1992)

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Note: Consumption measured in US $.

Uncertainty: MOC Damage(MK 2007)

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Percent gross world product lost due tomeridional overturning circulation (MOC) collapse

•N 1992: No MOC 0% GWP

Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity(MK 2007)

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Global temperature increase due to doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration

•N 1992: λ* = 3°C

Uncertainty: Population Growth(MK 2007)

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Decadal decline in population growth rate

•N 1992: declines slowly, eventually stabilizing

Uncertainty: CO2:GWP Growth(MK 2007)

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Decadal decline in rate of growth of CO2:GWP ratio

•N 1992: not specified

Results: Abatement (MK 2007)

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Abatement Rate =Emissions under abatement

Uncontrolled emissions

– What value judgments are embedded in cost-benefit analyses of optimal climate management strategies?

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Questions for discussion

Governing Equations (N 1992)

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Eqn. 2, N 1992

Eqn. 4, N 1992

Eqn. 1, N 1992

Eqn. 3, N 1992

Eqn. 13, N 1992

Governing Equations (MK 2007)

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Eqn. 2, MK 2007

Eqn. 1, MK 2007

Constraint:Prob[MOC collapse] ≤ threshold- Thresholds: 1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.01

Sec. 5-6, MK 2007

– Can we articulate the value judgments that are implicit in a given analysis framework?

• Can we formulate valid alternative value systems that could be applied to the analysis framework?

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Questions for discussion

– Is there a valid case for “ethical uncertainty” in optimal climate management cost-benefit analyses?

• If so, can this be evaluated in a quantitative fashion?

• If so, can we think of any past societal issues that provide an example of these “ethical uncertainties”? Do these shed any light on the current situation?

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Questions for discussion

– What, if any, are the implications for your research?

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Questions for discussion

– What are the implications for ethical use of the results of such cost-benefit analyses?

• How should climate scientists present their research results?

– Is this limited to those who perform climate management studies?

– Are Nordhaus 92 and McInerny and Keller 07 being ethically responsible?

• How should decision-makers use the results of cost-benefit analyses?

• Is there an ethical imperative to close the gap between scientific results and their sound application to policy? Who bears this responsibility?

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Questions for discussion

Examples in the literaturefor further reading

•Tol 2001

• Considers broader range of ethical frameworks

•Stern 2007

• Landmark report commissioned by UK Government

•Baum 2007

• Accessible discussion of ethical and modeling issues

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Additional information• Ethical guidelines in statistics, engineering,

science (but not quantitative ethics):– ASA Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice,

published by the American Statistical Association:http://www.tcnj.edu/~asaethic/asagui.html

– The Online Ethics Center for Engineering and Science: http://onlineethics.org/index.html

• Ethics of climate change– http://climateEthics.org

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