integrating ethics into graduate training in the environment sciences series unit 6: ethical issues...
TRANSCRIPT
Integrating Ethics into Graduate Training in the Environment Sciences Series
Unit 6: Ethical issues implicit in cost-benefit analyses of climate management
AUTHOR: KENNETH DAVISDepartment of Meteorology
Penn State University
MODIFIED BY: SETH BAUMDepartment of Geography
Penn State University
With input from Klaus Keller and Nancy Tuana
– What value judgments are embedded in cost-benefit analyses of optimal climate management strategies?
– Can we articulate the value judgments that are implicit in a given analysis framework?
– Is there a valid case for “ethical uncertainty” in climate management cost-benefit analyses?
– What, if any, are the implications for your research?
– What are the implications for ethical use of the results of such cost-benefit analyses?
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Questions for discussion
– Review governing equations and results from two important cost-benefit analyses
• Nordhaus, 1992 (“N 1992” for short)
• McInerny and Keller, 2007 (“MK 2007” for short)
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Background
Governing Equations (N 1992)
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Eqn. 2, N 1992
Eqn. 4, N 1992
Eqn. 1, N 1992
Eqn. 3, N 1992
Eqn. 13, N 1992
Governing Equations (MK 2007)
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Eqn. 2, MK 2007
Eqn. 1, MK 2007
Constraint:Prob[MOC collapse] ≤ threshold- Thresholds: 1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.01
Sec. 5-6, MK 2007
Results: Abatement (N 1992)
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Abatement Rate =Emissions under abatement
Uncontrolled emissions
Optimal
Uncontrolled
Emissions Stabilization
Climate Stabilization
Results: GHG’s (N 1992)
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Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in tons C.
Optimal
Uncontrolled
Emissions Stabilization
Climate Stabilization
Results: Temperature (N 1992)
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Optimal
Uncontrolled
Emissions Stabilization
Climate Stabilization
Global temperature increase (°C) relative to 1900.
Results: Carbon Tax (N 1992)
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OptimalUncontrolled
Emissions Stabilization
Climate Stabilization
Global carbon tax rate in US $ per ton C.
Note: $1000 per ton C = $2.66 per gallon.
Results: Economic Output (N 1992)
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Optimal
Uncontrolled
Emissions Stabilization
Climate Stabilization
Geoengineering
Differencein output
= Output – Output withno abatement
Note: Economic output measured in US $.
Results: Consumption (N 1992)
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Note: Consumption measured in US $.
Uncertainty: MOC Damage(MK 2007)
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Percent gross world product lost due tomeridional overturning circulation (MOC) collapse
•N 1992: No MOC 0% GWP
Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity(MK 2007)
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Global temperature increase due to doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration
•N 1992: λ* = 3°C
Uncertainty: Population Growth(MK 2007)
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Decadal decline in population growth rate
•N 1992: declines slowly, eventually stabilizing
Uncertainty: CO2:GWP Growth(MK 2007)
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Decadal decline in rate of growth of CO2:GWP ratio
•N 1992: not specified
Results: Abatement (MK 2007)
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Abatement Rate =Emissions under abatement
Uncontrolled emissions
– What value judgments are embedded in cost-benefit analyses of optimal climate management strategies?
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Questions for discussion
Governing Equations (N 1992)
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Eqn. 2, N 1992
Eqn. 4, N 1992
Eqn. 1, N 1992
Eqn. 3, N 1992
Eqn. 13, N 1992
Governing Equations (MK 2007)
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Eqn. 2, MK 2007
Eqn. 1, MK 2007
Constraint:Prob[MOC collapse] ≤ threshold- Thresholds: 1, 0.1, 0.05, 0.01
Sec. 5-6, MK 2007
– Can we articulate the value judgments that are implicit in a given analysis framework?
• Can we formulate valid alternative value systems that could be applied to the analysis framework?
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Questions for discussion
– Is there a valid case for “ethical uncertainty” in optimal climate management cost-benefit analyses?
• If so, can this be evaluated in a quantitative fashion?
• If so, can we think of any past societal issues that provide an example of these “ethical uncertainties”? Do these shed any light on the current situation?
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Questions for discussion
– What, if any, are the implications for your research?
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Questions for discussion
– What are the implications for ethical use of the results of such cost-benefit analyses?
• How should climate scientists present their research results?
– Is this limited to those who perform climate management studies?
– Are Nordhaus 92 and McInerny and Keller 07 being ethically responsible?
• How should decision-makers use the results of cost-benefit analyses?
• Is there an ethical imperative to close the gap between scientific results and their sound application to policy? Who bears this responsibility?
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Questions for discussion
Examples in the literaturefor further reading
•Tol 2001
• Considers broader range of ethical frameworks
•Stern 2007
• Landmark report commissioned by UK Government
•Baum 2007
• Accessible discussion of ethical and modeling issues
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Additional information• Ethical guidelines in statistics, engineering,
science (but not quantitative ethics):– ASA Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice,
published by the American Statistical Association:http://www.tcnj.edu/~asaethic/asagui.html
– The Online Ethics Center for Engineering and Science: http://onlineethics.org/index.html
• Ethics of climate change– http://climateEthics.org
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