idmp cee 2nd workshop: ipcc new reports by kajfez bogataj

Monitoring of climate system

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2003-2012 average)

2.6 ± 0.5 GtC/yr

27%

8.6 ± 0.4 GtC/yr 92%

+ 0.8 ± 0.5 GtC/yr 8%

2.6 ± 0.8 GtC/yr

27% Calculated as the residual

of all other flux components

4.3±0.1 GtC/yr

45%

It is extremely likely that more than 50% of the warming

since 1951 is due to the increase in greenhouse gases

and other anthropogenic forcings together

IPCC AR5 2013

It is warmer across the globe than it was a century ago

Global natural disasters 1980 – 2013 Geophysical, meteorological, hydrological events

Representative Concentration Pathways

Vir: Van Vuuren et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an

overview. Climatic Change DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z

Ranges for predicted surface

warming

Projections Europe (RCP4.5) 2081-2100 versus 1986-2005

Temperature (oC) Precipitation (%)

winter summer winter half summer half

2010-2029 2030-2049 2050-2069 2070-2089

20

40

60

80

100

PERCEN

TAG

E O

F

YIE

LD

PRO

JECTIO

NS

0 2090-2109

0 – -5%

-5 – -10%

-10 – -25%

-25 – -50%

-50 – -100%

50 – 100%

25 – 50%

10 – 25%

5 – 10%

0 – 5%

Range of Yield Change

Increase in Yield

Decrease in Yield

Crop Yield Change

Alleviating rivalries between

economic sectors?

Climatic

change Water

resources

Tourism Agriculture Mining

Conflict mitigation through improved

water governance?

Energy

WITH CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS

INCREASE

RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE