iam contribution to the global stock take · iam contribution to the global stock take detlef van...

IAM contribution to the global stock take

Detlef van Vuuren 

with input from: Keywan Riahi, Volker Krey, Heleen van Soest, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds

The Paris Agreement of 2015

• Adopted by consensus on 12 December 2015; (Entered into force 4 November 2016)

• A global goal: “Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”

• But the (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) form main mean of implementation

Article 14“The Conference of the Parties … shall periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement to assess the collective progress towards achieving the purpose of this Agreement and its long-term goals (referred to as the ‘global stocktake’)”

Source:  http://www.carbon‐m

echanisms.de/en/introduction/the‐

paris‐agreement‐and‐article‐6/

• First “test” stocktake in 2018… Talanoa dialogue• For 1,5 deg C difference 2018 – 2023 is crucial• Countries are now formulating their mid-century strategies

First Global Stocktake in 2023 and every five years thereafter; they will assesss progress towards achieving the overall objectives. • Inform Parties in updating and enhancing their NDCs• Intended to increase ambition

• Oriented around three questions:• Where are we?• Where do we want to go?• How do we get there?

• Input 1.5 deg C report and evidence via the portal (stocktake gets IPCC AR report)• Intention stimulate to further enhance ambition, no name calling• Integrated assessment models can contribute to this process

National low‐carbon developmentpathways

Global transformationpathways

Talanoa dialogueCD‐LINKS – Funded under EU Horizon 2020 (Global and national teams)COMMIT – Funded by DG Climate (Global and national teams)Stocktake activities coordinated by ClimateWorksRIPPLES – Funded under EU Horizon 2020 (oriented mostly at European Countries)UNEP – Gap report….

Obviously not a new question…..

Source: Fawcett, et al. Science, 2015.

How can we contribute

• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)

• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)

• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

…..

How can we contribute• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)

Peak   in 2020

Steepemissionsreduction

Carbon neutrality Net CO2

removal

Re‐directing investmentsfrom fossils to low carbonand efficiency solutions

Power sector decarbonizationCoal phase‐out

Carbon neutral economyElectrification of end usesChallenges: • Freight transport, 

aviation, shipping• Heavy industry

Compensate residual emissions(incl. agricultural N2O emissions)Compensate budget overshoot

Luderer et al. (2018) Residual fossil CO emissions in 1.5–2oC pathways. Nature Climate Change 

How can we contribute

• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)

• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)

• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

…..

How can we contribute• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs

(where are we?)

Climate Policy Database• www.climatepolicydatabase.org

• Aim: open, collaborative platform to gather all climate-related policies, with full geographical and sectoral coverage.

• Platform: Semantic Media Wiki, an open-source, database driven extension of MediaWiki

• Niklas Höhne: niklas.hoehne@wur.nl n.hoehne@newclimate.org

How can we contribute• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs

(where are we?)

20

40

60

2020 20302010

Baseline

Current policies

NDCs

1.5 °C

2 °C

‐6%

‐17%

‐40%

‐50%

Emissions (G

tCO2‐eq

)

• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)

• Current policies reduce GHGs by 3.5 GtCO2‐eq [2.0 to 5.5] 

• Policies fall short of NDCs: 11.2 [7.0‐7.0] GtCO2eq.

• Gap with : • 2°C : 23.7 [9.0‐37.4] 

GtCO2eq. • 1.5°C : 30.3 [17.1 to 43.0] 

GtCO2eq.

How can we contribute

• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)

• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)

• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

…..

How can we contribute• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

Regional carbon budgets (2010-2050)

In all regions large gap between 1.5/2 and current policies

Further strengthening needed in all countries

Some countries close to meeting NDC, but those have larger gaps with Paris target scenarios

How can we contribute• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

How can we contribute

• Global pathways consistent with the overall objective (where do want to go?)

• Assessment of the total contribution of national policies, NDCs and MCSs (where are we?)

• Assessment of the gap (where are we?)• Comparison of work at the global and national level (where are we?)

• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

…..

How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

2oC pathways

2010 2020 2030 2040 20500

10

20

30

40

Gt C

O2/

year

NDCs Good Practice Net Zero Cost−effective pricing

Kriegler et al. (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Env. Res. Lett.

Policy packages include• Renewable energy quotas

• Restrictions on new coal and gas power plants w/o CCS

• Energy efficiency improvements in industry and buildings

• Upscaling of industry CCS

• Fuel efficiency improvements in road transport and aviation

• Increase of electric vehicle share

• More efficient use of nitrogen in agriculture

• Eliminating deforestation and 10 mio ha/yr afforestation

• Moderate carbon pricing

How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

Kriegler et al. (2018) Short term policies to keep the door open for Paris climate goals. Env. Res. Lett.

How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

USA EU Japan Russia

BrazilIndiaChina

Van den Berg et al., under embargo

How can we contribute• Suggestions on how the gap can be closed (How do we get there?)

co-benefitadverse effect

Krey et al. (submitted) – under embargo, do not citeMitigation risks

Mitigation co-benefits

http://www.cd-links.org

How to strengthen this role?

• Dialogue workshops between IAM modellers and policy makers and otherstakeholders

• Cooperation with other research communities (transition sciences)• Service scenarios (annual updates)• Focus more on the opportunities/obstacles at the national level

This project has received funding from the European Union’sHorizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grantagreement No 642147 (CD‐LINKS).

ClimateWorks and UMD

• Starting to explore the idea of an independent Global Stocktake

• 1st scoping workshop in Bonn, May 9 of 2018

• Initial meetings focus on assessing interest

• Multiple interests and sensitivities