harlan shannon and raymond motha u.s. department of agriculture office of the chief economist world...

Harlan Shannon and Raymond MothaU.S. Department of AgricultureOffice of the Chief EconomistWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWashington D.C., U.S.A.

An Overview of Current Threats to Agricultureand Management Strategies

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Weather & Climate in RA-IV

• Weather & climate varies significantly– north: mid-latitude cyclones, MCS’s,

seasonal incursions of hot/cold air

– south: mid-latitude cyclones, tropical disturbances, generally mild/hot air

• Local variables also influential– latitude, elevation, proximity to water

• Given broad spatial extent & widely varying terrain, farmers exposed to range of weather & climate phenomena

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

cold

mild

hot

Droughts

• Drought is a regular occurrence, and is often severe, having significant social and economic impacts on local, regional, and sometimes national scales

• Drought is a creeping disaster that has devastating, long-lasting impacts on agriculture and other sectors of society

• In 1988, a severe drought in the United States caused over $70 billion in damage to the economy

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Droughts

• Central America (summer 2001)– drought significantly reduced cereal &

vegetable production

• Caribbean (late 2009/early 2010 )– drought impacted agriculture in several

nations

• In 7 of last 10 years, drought caused on average $4.7 billion in agricultural losses annually in the United States– consecutive years of severe drought rare

– most crop areas impacted during period

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Estimated 1.6 million peoplerequired emergency food aid

summer 2001

Oct 2009 - Mar 2010

Eastern Caribbean SPI

Floods

• United States (spring/summer 1993)– record flooding caused $21 billion in

damage ($5 billion in crop losses)

– 48 fatalities, 77 towns inundated, damage to infrastructure, barge traffic disrupted

• Mexico & Central America (Oct 2007)– 80% of Tabasco flooded, half million

people displaced, $462 million ag losses

• Haiti & Dominican Republic (May 2004)– 1400+ deaths, food aid for 6000+ families

– in some Haitian villages 70% crops lost

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

1993

2002

Hurricanes

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Hurricanes

• Mitch (Oct 1998) – Central America– tremendous flooding, many mudslides

– 11,000+ deaths, $5 billion in damage

– local agriculture severely damaged

– 80% of El Salvador corn and Honduras banana crops lost, 30% Nicaragua coffee

• Katrina (Aug 2005) – United States– high winds, massive storm surge

– 1800+ fatalities, $125 billion in damage

– many crops harvested prior to landfall

– millions of chickens killed, $3 million in milk lost, rivers blocked, ports damaged

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Mitch

Katrina

Hurricanes

• Dean (Aug 2007) – Caribbean/Mexico– considerable damage to islands, Yucatan

– Dominica: 90% banana crop lost

– Belize: 95% papaya crop destroyed

– Jamaica: 75% vegetable production lost, $3.7 billion in damage to agriculture

• Fay, Gustav, Ike (Aug/Sep 2008) – Cuba– caused considerable damage to

agriculture & infrastructure throughout

– high winds lodged sugarcane, uprooted fruit trees, damaged farm buildings

– floods damaged immature/mature crops, processing/storage facilities, rail network

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Dean

Ike

Extreme Heat

• Hot weather regular occurrence in Central America/Caribbean– crops & livestock heat tolerant

• Central & Eastern Cuba (2003/2004)– near-record heat accompanied drought

– reduced forage, water, sugarcane production; 36,000 head of cattle lost

• Mexico, U.S., Canada (summer 2007)– Canada: heat reduced pea/canola yields

– U.S.: hot weather reduced pasture & range conditions, stressed livestock

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Freezes

• Eastern Prairies & Ontario (Jun 1998)– frost forced farmers to replant

• Saskatchewan & Manitoba (Aug 2004)– killing freeze cut spring grain yields

• United States– California (Jan 2007): 20% oranges lost

– Florida (1980s): reshaped citrus areas

– Eastern U.S. (Apr 2007): wheat, corn, peaches, apples, pecans - $2 billion lost

• Sinaloa, Mexico (winter 1996/1997)– vegetable plants drop blooms

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Other Extreme Episodic Events

• Severe local storms– high winds, large hail, tornadoes

– damage highly localized

• Blizzards– potential widespread impacts in north

– bitter cold, strong winds, blowing & drifting snow can stress & kill livestock

– protect dormant crops from winterkill

• Wildfires– greatest threat: areas in drought, have

distinct wet/dry seasons, dry t-storms

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Climate Change & Variability

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

• Dominant contributors in RA-IV– El Nino Southern Oscillation

– Arctic Oscillation

– Tropical Multi-decadal Signal

• Many extreme episodic events linked to different modes of climate variability

• Climate change/variability duel risk– govern how favorable weather is for

agriculture over long periods of time

– increase/decrease likelihood of extreme episodic events during these intervals

…climate variability refers tovariations in the mean state of theclimate on all spatial and temporalscales beyond that of individualweather events…

…climate change refers to a changein the state of the climate that can beidentified by changes in the mean orthe variability of its properties, andthat persists for an extended period,typically decades or longer.…

Management & Coping Strategies

• Farmer-managed strategies– vary planting dates

– diversify crops & varieties

– seek alternative sources of income

– maintain emergency fund

– store harvested crops on site

• Most effective when farmers are well educated in risk management concepts, have access to applicable data & tools– empowers farmers to make sound risk

management decisions

– retain management control of farm

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

corn corn

soybeans

Management & Coping Strategies

• Transfer risk to outside organizations– contracting: give up some farm control

– insurance: premiums reduce profits

• Production contracts – guarantee prices & markets, dictate production process

• Crop yield insurance – offset financial losses when yields below insured levels

• Crop production insurance – offset losses when gross farm revenue less than minimally acceptableAgricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather Assessments

World Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Management & Coping Strategies

• Contracting & insurance most prevalent in more developed nations

• In the developing nations, limited opportunities to transfer risk– Disaster assistance remains primary

mechanism to help farmers cope

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Educating the Farming Community

• Few farmers fully understand all links among weather, climate, & agriculture

• Recent disasters and climate forecasts underscore need for more education– annual crop production more variable

– most impacted areas: developing nations, marginally productive lands

• Demonstrate how to translate weather & climate information into relevant farming decisions– improve daily decision-making process

– ensure long-term sustainability

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Agriculture

Weather Climate

Educating the Farming Community

• Conveying risk management concepts– who: colleges, agricultural extension

services, companies, government agencies

– how: courses, guides, tutorials, brochures

– why: weather & climate risks need to be better defined in an agricultural risk management framework

• New & improved educational materials needed to help farmers understand risk– cater to farmers: omit unnecessary

jargon, use real world examples

– will improve farmer comprehension & increase likelihood risk strategies adopted

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Equipping the Farming Community

• WAMIS helps users locate & identify valuable weather & climate resources

• Groups should better advertise products & services and streamline farmer access to data, tools, & applications– develop Internet content

– host conferences & workshops

– distribute brochures & electronic media

– communicate via media outlets

– conduct training seminars in the field

– ensure products & services provide most recent information, consistently available

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

…help farmers make more useful, timely, and relevant decisions

Equipping the Farming Community

• Weather & climate information available but little directed specifically at farmers

• Collaboration between agricultural & meteorological communities is urgently needed– add value to weather & climate

information already available

– enhance farmer’s ability to manage risk

• User-friendly formats essential– consider farmer education & training

– fulfill specific information & data needs

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

agrometeorologicalproducts & services

weather & climatecommunity

agriculturalcommunity

farmers

?

Equipping the Farming Community

• Weather & climate information available but little directed specifically at farmers

• Collaboration between agricultural & meteorological communities is urgently needed– add value to weather & climate

information already available

– enhance farmer’s ability to manage risk

• User-friendly formats essential– consider farmer education & training

– fulfill specific information & data needs

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

agrometeorologicalproducts & services

weather & climatecommunity

agriculturalcommunity

farmers

Investing in the Farming Community

• Solicit farmer input/feedback to ensure products & services satisfy user requirements– focus initial product & service

development

– guide efforts to improve existing products & services

– spur ideas for new products & services

• Forge partnerships between agrometeorological and farming communities to help farmers sustain and improve agricultural productivity

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

Thank you!

Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board

An Overview of Current Threats to Agricultureand Management Strategies