harlan shannon and raymond motha u.s. department of agriculture office of the chief economist world...
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Harlan Shannon and Raymond MothaU.S. Department of AgricultureOffice of the Chief EconomistWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWashington D.C., U.S.A.
An Overview of Current Threats to Agricultureand Management Strategies
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Weather & Climate in RA-IV
• Weather & climate varies significantly– north: mid-latitude cyclones, MCS’s,
seasonal incursions of hot/cold air
– south: mid-latitude cyclones, tropical disturbances, generally mild/hot air
• Local variables also influential– latitude, elevation, proximity to water
• Given broad spatial extent & widely varying terrain, farmers exposed to range of weather & climate phenomena
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cold
mild
hot
Droughts
• Drought is a regular occurrence, and is often severe, having significant social and economic impacts on local, regional, and sometimes national scales
• Drought is a creeping disaster that has devastating, long-lasting impacts on agriculture and other sectors of society
• In 1988, a severe drought in the United States caused over $70 billion in damage to the economy
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Droughts
• Central America (summer 2001)– drought significantly reduced cereal &
vegetable production
• Caribbean (late 2009/early 2010 )– drought impacted agriculture in several
nations
• In 7 of last 10 years, drought caused on average $4.7 billion in agricultural losses annually in the United States– consecutive years of severe drought rare
– most crop areas impacted during period
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Estimated 1.6 million peoplerequired emergency food aid
summer 2001
Oct 2009 - Mar 2010
Eastern Caribbean SPI
Floods
• United States (spring/summer 1993)– record flooding caused $21 billion in
damage ($5 billion in crop losses)
– 48 fatalities, 77 towns inundated, damage to infrastructure, barge traffic disrupted
• Mexico & Central America (Oct 2007)– 80% of Tabasco flooded, half million
people displaced, $462 million ag losses
• Haiti & Dominican Republic (May 2004)– 1400+ deaths, food aid for 6000+ families
– in some Haitian villages 70% crops lost
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1993
2002
Hurricanes
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Hurricanes
• Mitch (Oct 1998) – Central America– tremendous flooding, many mudslides
– 11,000+ deaths, $5 billion in damage
– local agriculture severely damaged
– 80% of El Salvador corn and Honduras banana crops lost, 30% Nicaragua coffee
• Katrina (Aug 2005) – United States– high winds, massive storm surge
– 1800+ fatalities, $125 billion in damage
– many crops harvested prior to landfall
– millions of chickens killed, $3 million in milk lost, rivers blocked, ports damaged
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Mitch
Katrina
Hurricanes
• Dean (Aug 2007) – Caribbean/Mexico– considerable damage to islands, Yucatan
– Dominica: 90% banana crop lost
– Belize: 95% papaya crop destroyed
– Jamaica: 75% vegetable production lost, $3.7 billion in damage to agriculture
• Fay, Gustav, Ike (Aug/Sep 2008) – Cuba– caused considerable damage to
agriculture & infrastructure throughout
– high winds lodged sugarcane, uprooted fruit trees, damaged farm buildings
– floods damaged immature/mature crops, processing/storage facilities, rail network
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Dean
Ike
Extreme Heat
• Hot weather regular occurrence in Central America/Caribbean– crops & livestock heat tolerant
• Central & Eastern Cuba (2003/2004)– near-record heat accompanied drought
– reduced forage, water, sugarcane production; 36,000 head of cattle lost
• Mexico, U.S., Canada (summer 2007)– Canada: heat reduced pea/canola yields
– U.S.: hot weather reduced pasture & range conditions, stressed livestock
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Freezes
• Eastern Prairies & Ontario (Jun 1998)– frost forced farmers to replant
• Saskatchewan & Manitoba (Aug 2004)– killing freeze cut spring grain yields
• United States– California (Jan 2007): 20% oranges lost
– Florida (1980s): reshaped citrus areas
– Eastern U.S. (Apr 2007): wheat, corn, peaches, apples, pecans - $2 billion lost
• Sinaloa, Mexico (winter 1996/1997)– vegetable plants drop blooms
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Other Extreme Episodic Events
• Severe local storms– high winds, large hail, tornadoes
– damage highly localized
• Blizzards– potential widespread impacts in north
– bitter cold, strong winds, blowing & drifting snow can stress & kill livestock
– protect dormant crops from winterkill
• Wildfires– greatest threat: areas in drought, have
distinct wet/dry seasons, dry t-storms
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Climate Change & Variability
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• Dominant contributors in RA-IV– El Nino Southern Oscillation
– Arctic Oscillation
– Tropical Multi-decadal Signal
• Many extreme episodic events linked to different modes of climate variability
• Climate change/variability duel risk– govern how favorable weather is for
agriculture over long periods of time
– increase/decrease likelihood of extreme episodic events during these intervals
…climate variability refers tovariations in the mean state of theclimate on all spatial and temporalscales beyond that of individualweather events…
…climate change refers to a changein the state of the climate that can beidentified by changes in the mean orthe variability of its properties, andthat persists for an extended period,typically decades or longer.…
Management & Coping Strategies
• Farmer-managed strategies– vary planting dates
– diversify crops & varieties
– seek alternative sources of income
– maintain emergency fund
– store harvested crops on site
• Most effective when farmers are well educated in risk management concepts, have access to applicable data & tools– empowers farmers to make sound risk
management decisions
– retain management control of farm
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corn corn
soybeans
Management & Coping Strategies
• Transfer risk to outside organizations– contracting: give up some farm control
– insurance: premiums reduce profits
• Production contracts – guarantee prices & markets, dictate production process
• Crop yield insurance – offset financial losses when yields below insured levels
• Crop production insurance – offset losses when gross farm revenue less than minimally acceptableAgricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather Assessments
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Management & Coping Strategies
• Contracting & insurance most prevalent in more developed nations
• In the developing nations, limited opportunities to transfer risk– Disaster assistance remains primary
mechanism to help farmers cope
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Educating the Farming Community
• Few farmers fully understand all links among weather, climate, & agriculture
• Recent disasters and climate forecasts underscore need for more education– annual crop production more variable
– most impacted areas: developing nations, marginally productive lands
• Demonstrate how to translate weather & climate information into relevant farming decisions– improve daily decision-making process
– ensure long-term sustainability
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Agriculture
Weather Climate
Educating the Farming Community
• Conveying risk management concepts– who: colleges, agricultural extension
services, companies, government agencies
– how: courses, guides, tutorials, brochures
– why: weather & climate risks need to be better defined in an agricultural risk management framework
• New & improved educational materials needed to help farmers understand risk– cater to farmers: omit unnecessary
jargon, use real world examples
– will improve farmer comprehension & increase likelihood risk strategies adopted
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Equipping the Farming Community
• WAMIS helps users locate & identify valuable weather & climate resources
• Groups should better advertise products & services and streamline farmer access to data, tools, & applications– develop Internet content
– host conferences & workshops
– distribute brochures & electronic media
– communicate via media outlets
– conduct training seminars in the field
– ensure products & services provide most recent information, consistently available
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…help farmers make more useful, timely, and relevant decisions
Equipping the Farming Community
• Weather & climate information available but little directed specifically at farmers
• Collaboration between agricultural & meteorological communities is urgently needed– add value to weather & climate
information already available
– enhance farmer’s ability to manage risk
• User-friendly formats essential– consider farmer education & training
– fulfill specific information & data needs
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
agrometeorologicalproducts & services
weather & climatecommunity
agriculturalcommunity
farmers
?
Equipping the Farming Community
• Weather & climate information available but little directed specifically at farmers
• Collaboration between agricultural & meteorological communities is urgently needed– add value to weather & climate
information already available
– enhance farmer’s ability to manage risk
• User-friendly formats essential– consider farmer education & training
– fulfill specific information & data needs
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
agrometeorologicalproducts & services
weather & climatecommunity
agriculturalcommunity
farmers
Investing in the Farming Community
• Solicit farmer input/feedback to ensure products & services satisfy user requirements– focus initial product & service
development
– guide efforts to improve existing products & services
– spur ideas for new products & services
• Forge partnerships between agrometeorological and farming communities to help farmers sustain and improve agricultural productivity
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Thank you!
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsAgricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
An Overview of Current Threats to Agricultureand Management Strategies