geohazards supersites a partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental...

Geohazards Supersites

A partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental research

(1)University of Miami(2)ESA

CEOS action DI-09-01a_4

GEO task leader: Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2)

Showcase at GEO plenary. Need data!

Outline:• What are “Geohazard Supersites”” • Benefits• Achievements/ Haiti examples• Challenges• Expectations from CEOS

Geohazards Supersites

What are the Geohazard Supersites? - GEO initiative to better understand the geophysical processes causing geohazards (earthquakes

and volcanoes).

- Global partnership of scientists, satellite and in-situ data providers (multi-sensor InSAR, seismic, GPS, complete data sets!)

- Data can support national authorities and policy makers in risk assessment and mitigation strategies.

disaster mitigation

Which are the Geohazard Supersites?

- Earthquake Supersites:

Tokyo, Los Angeles, Vancouver/Seattle, Istanbul- Volcano Supersites:

Hawaii, Mt. Etna, Campi Flegreii/Vesuvius- Event Supersites:

Haiti (Hispaniola),

Chile

Wenchuan

30 year earthquake probability for Supersites:- Tokyo: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock,

(1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)

- Istanbul: 62% for M≥6.7 with ~3000 fatalities

- Southern California: 37% for shaking associated with a M≥7.5 (smaller for Los Angeles)

- Vancouver/Seattle: 10% for M≥9.0

~80% probability for M≥7.0 event with ≥3000 fatalities

in one of the Supersites in the next 30 years

Why is collaboration required?

Benefits

new applications justifying the need for new satellite resources user requirements for advanced observation systems

(combination of satellite and ground)

• better science of geohazards• improve volcano and earthquake monitoring

• direct dialogue with users (smarter satellite tasking).• decade-long multi-satellite data readily available (digital world heritage for Earth Observation). • coordination of SAR observation systems (e.g. L-band for earthquake, X,C-band after earthquake)

For society:

For satellite operators:

Space Agencies(CEOS)

In-situ data providers

JAXACSAESADLR…

Steering Group(Data Provider members)

Research Institutions(Data User members)

SupersiteOffice

(Unavco)

Science Community(Geohazard

CoP)----------

Governance Structure of Consortium

Point of contact(1 per Supersite)

Scientific Advisory Committee

Chair

Vice Chair

GEO task leadership

Legend:ElectionDay to day business

Science Objectives

For a given Supersite:- interseismic deformation earthquake potential.- Daily to sub-daily SAR observations:

ALOS: 2 images/44 days

TSX: 2 images/11 days

RSAT-2: 2 images/24 days

CSM: 2 images/4 days

Envisat/ERS 2 images /35 days

Sentinel: 2 images/12 days

more satellites ultraprecise measurements (1 mm)

more chances for rapid interferograms

“virtual constellation” for ground deformationhigh-res optical for crustal earthquakes (Spot-5, Pleiades)

• Magnitude 9.0 megathrust quake expected in next 300 years.• Image surface displacement associated with Episodic Slip and Tremor (ETS)

Science Objectives: (1) Vancouver/Seattle

1923 Great Kanto earthquake

Interseismic deformation fault slip rates, earthquake potential

Envisat, processing by IREA, Naples

30 year earthquake probability: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock, (1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)

Science Objectives: (2) Tokyo

M7.9, 140,000 fatalities

RSAT-2 interferogram the day after Tokyo earthquake?

InSAR, GPS and seismic new information on stress relaxation and transfer

Benefits:• better understand large continental earthquakes: first quake after 3000 years: isolated event? • promote data sharing in China (GPS, seismic, SAR).• capacity building through data access multiple PhD thesis.

Shen et al., 2009

Science Objectives: (3) Wenchuan

Science Objectives: (4) Hawaii

SE flank time series

• Deformation due to arrival of new magma forecast activity

• Resolve flank deformation need daily SAR!

TerraSAR-X data from Supersites

1 Feb 2010 slow-slip event

P. Lundgren, Jet Propulsion Laboratory

• Cyberinfrastructure developed: single entry 'one-stop shop' supporting simultaneous large-scale data access

• White Paper version 2 (3 splinter sessions geohazards CoP )• Support from in-situ data provider• ESA data available for all Supersites (> 10,000 scenes,

natural laboratories initiated: complete ESA data sets for Japan, Western US)

• DLR data arriving• Radarsat-2 tasked• 12 Alos-PalSAR images for Haiti, Chile• Geological Surveys start using data (USGS, INGV)• Haiti earthquake: global scientific collaboration

Achievements

ALOS-PalSAR data providedday after image acquisition

Provided critical information on rupture extend.

• Reassurance to population, rescue organizations•U Cornell civil engineers up’ed seismic safety standards.• Haiti meeting organized inMiami prior to UN donors Conference (relocation ofPort-au-Prince put to rest)

The Haiti example

Septentrional fault:• GPS: ~13 mm/yr slip rate• Last earthquake about 1230 A.D. (8 m displacement accumulated)

magnitude 7.5-8 overdue!

• seismic hazard very high in Dominican Republic!• minimal seismic network (2 people)

•

USGS open file report

Next: Hispaniola Supersite

Hispaniola Seismic Hazard

USGS open file report

Goal: to better estimate seismic hazard in Santiago, Dom. Rep. (2 million people)

How? Use multi-satellite PSInSAR to resolve strain accumulation along Septentrional fault.

Space data: TerraSAR-X, Alos, ERS2, Sentinel-1 need Cosmo-Skymed andRadarsat-2.

In-situ data: Coordination with planned GPS network

Results in 2 years!.

Expected signal, 1 cm/yr

Next: Hispaniola Supersite

• ALOS data provision (L-band critical for event Supersites).

• Radarsat-1,2 data provision• Cosmo-Skymed unclear

no event Supersites established for Iceland volcano, New Zealand earthquake (ESA data available through “Natural Laboratory”)

Challenges

Expectations from CEOS Plenary

• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies• Seek positive response to data request • Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR

through regular proposals) • Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon

as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).• Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San

Francisco, Izu-Oshima)

Data request (White Paper Supplement)

As soon as possible

.

Data request (White Paper Supplement)

1st semester 2011

2nd semester 2011

Expectations from CEOS Plenary

• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies• Seek positive response to data request • Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR

through regular proposals) • Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon

as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).• Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San

Francisco, Izu-Oshima)

Thank you!

http://supersites.earthobservations.org

famelung@rsmas.miami.edu