geohazards supersites a partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental...
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Geohazards Supersites
A partnership for the reduction of geological disasters through fundamental research
(1)University of Miami(2)ESA
CEOS action DI-09-01a_4
GEO task leader: Falk AMELUNG(1) and Wolfgang LENGERT(2)
Showcase at GEO plenary. Need data!
Outline:• What are “Geohazard Supersites”” • Benefits• Achievements/ Haiti examples• Challenges• Expectations from CEOS
Geohazards Supersites
What are the Geohazard Supersites? - GEO initiative to better understand the geophysical processes causing geohazards (earthquakes
and volcanoes).
- Global partnership of scientists, satellite and in-situ data providers (multi-sensor InSAR, seismic, GPS, complete data sets!)
- Data can support national authorities and policy makers in risk assessment and mitigation strategies.
disaster mitigation
Which are the Geohazard Supersites?
- Earthquake Supersites:
Tokyo, Los Angeles, Vancouver/Seattle, Istanbul- Volcano Supersites:
Hawaii, Mt. Etna, Campi Flegreii/Vesuvius- Event Supersites:
Haiti (Hispaniola),
Chile
Wenchuan
30 year earthquake probability for Supersites:- Tokyo: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock,
(1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)
- Istanbul: 62% for M≥6.7 with ~3000 fatalities
- Southern California: 37% for shaking associated with a M≥7.5 (smaller for Los Angeles)
- Vancouver/Seattle: 10% for M≥9.0
~80% probability for M≥7.0 event with ≥3000 fatalities
in one of the Supersites in the next 30 years
Why is collaboration required?
Benefits
new applications justifying the need for new satellite resources user requirements for advanced observation systems
(combination of satellite and ground)
• better science of geohazards• improve volcano and earthquake monitoring
• direct dialogue with users (smarter satellite tasking).• decade-long multi-satellite data readily available (digital world heritage for Earth Observation). • coordination of SAR observation systems (e.g. L-band for earthquake, X,C-band after earthquake)
For society:
For satellite operators:
Space Agencies(CEOS)
In-situ data providers
JAXACSAESADLR…
Steering Group(Data Provider members)
Research Institutions(Data User members)
SupersiteOffice
(Unavco)
Science Community(Geohazard
CoP)----------
Governance Structure of Consortium
Point of contact(1 per Supersite)
Scientific Advisory Committee
Chair
Vice Chair
GEO task leadership
Legend:ElectionDay to day business
Science Objectives
For a given Supersite:- interseismic deformation earthquake potential.- Daily to sub-daily SAR observations:
ALOS: 2 images/44 days
TSX: 2 images/11 days
RSAT-2: 2 images/24 days
CSM: 2 images/4 days
Envisat/ERS 2 images /35 days
Sentinel: 2 images/12 days
more satellites ultraprecise measurements (1 mm)
more chances for rapid interferograms
“virtual constellation” for ground deformationhigh-res optical for crustal earthquakes (Spot-5, Pleiades)
• Magnitude 9.0 megathrust quake expected in next 300 years.• Image surface displacement associated with Episodic Slip and Tremor (ETS)
Science Objectives: (1) Vancouver/Seattle
1923 Great Kanto earthquake
Interseismic deformation fault slip rates, earthquake potential
Envisat, processing by IREA, Naples
30 year earthquake probability: 35% for shaking associated with a M≥7.3 shock, (1 trillion $ damage, 3000-10000 fatalities)
Science Objectives: (2) Tokyo
M7.9, 140,000 fatalities
RSAT-2 interferogram the day after Tokyo earthquake?
InSAR, GPS and seismic new information on stress relaxation and transfer
Benefits:• better understand large continental earthquakes: first quake after 3000 years: isolated event? • promote data sharing in China (GPS, seismic, SAR).• capacity building through data access multiple PhD thesis.
Shen et al., 2009
Science Objectives: (3) Wenchuan
Science Objectives: (4) Hawaii
SE flank time series
• Deformation due to arrival of new magma forecast activity
• Resolve flank deformation need daily SAR!
TerraSAR-X data from Supersites
1 Feb 2010 slow-slip event
P. Lundgren, Jet Propulsion Laboratory
• Cyberinfrastructure developed: single entry 'one-stop shop' supporting simultaneous large-scale data access
• White Paper version 2 (3 splinter sessions geohazards CoP )• Support from in-situ data provider• ESA data available for all Supersites (> 10,000 scenes,
natural laboratories initiated: complete ESA data sets for Japan, Western US)
• DLR data arriving• Radarsat-2 tasked• 12 Alos-PalSAR images for Haiti, Chile• Geological Surveys start using data (USGS, INGV)• Haiti earthquake: global scientific collaboration
Achievements
ALOS-PalSAR data providedday after image acquisition
Provided critical information on rupture extend.
• Reassurance to population, rescue organizations•U Cornell civil engineers up’ed seismic safety standards.• Haiti meeting organized inMiami prior to UN donors Conference (relocation ofPort-au-Prince put to rest)
The Haiti example
Septentrional fault:• GPS: ~13 mm/yr slip rate• Last earthquake about 1230 A.D. (8 m displacement accumulated)
magnitude 7.5-8 overdue!
• seismic hazard very high in Dominican Republic!• minimal seismic network (2 people)
•
USGS open file report
Next: Hispaniola Supersite
Hispaniola Seismic Hazard
USGS open file report
Goal: to better estimate seismic hazard in Santiago, Dom. Rep. (2 million people)
How? Use multi-satellite PSInSAR to resolve strain accumulation along Septentrional fault.
Space data: TerraSAR-X, Alos, ERS2, Sentinel-1 need Cosmo-Skymed andRadarsat-2.
In-situ data: Coordination with planned GPS network
Results in 2 years!.
Expected signal, 1 cm/yr
Next: Hispaniola Supersite
• ALOS data provision (L-band critical for event Supersites).
• Radarsat-1,2 data provision• Cosmo-Skymed unclear
no event Supersites established for Iceland volcano, New Zealand earthquake (ESA data available through “Natural Laboratory”)
Challenges
Expectations from CEOS Plenary
• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies• Seek positive response to data request • Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR
through regular proposals) • Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon
as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).• Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San
Francisco, Izu-Oshima)
Data request (White Paper Supplement)
As soon as possible
.
Data request (White Paper Supplement)
1st semester 2011
2nd semester 2011
Expectations from CEOS Plenary
• Review of White Paper by Space Agencies• Seek positive response to data request • Smooth data provision through CEOS (clarification of procedures for CSA, JAXA, ASI) (ESA, DLR
through regular proposals) • Data provision for Wenchuan, Haiti Supersites as soon
as possible (GEO Plenary showcase).• Fullfill complete data request in 2011 need for additional Supersites (Teheran, San
Francisco, Izu-Oshima)
Thank you!
http://supersites.earthobservations.org