from ideas to action: clean energy solutions for asia that address climate change peter du pont,...

From Ideas to Action:From Ideas to Action:Clean Energy Solutions for AsiaClean Energy Solutions for Asia

that Address Climate Changethat Address Climate Change

Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party, Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party,ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate ProgramECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

Prepared for Prepared for International Conference onInternational Conference onAsia’s Emerging Response to Climate ChangeAsia’s Emerging Response to Climate Change

Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand

23 November 200723 November 2007

2

Overview

1. From Ideas to Action: regional analysis of clean energy options

2. Overview of Thailand Country Reporty

3. Overview of new regional program on clean energy

3

ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Geographic Coverage

ChinaIndiaIndonesiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam

These 6 countries account for 96% of the GDP of Asia’s developing countries

4

USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in Asia

Objectives• Identify clean energy priorities –

technologies, sectors, and initiatives• Identify opportunities for regional action

Methodology• organized “listening tours” with 220 key

energy stakeholders in the 6 countries• researched and prepared more than 300

profiles on clean energy institutions, policies, programs

• prepared in-depth country reports on the clean energy opportunities in the 6 countries

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5

Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options

Supply-Side Energy• Coal (CCT and carbon storage)• Petroleum• Natural Gas (incl. methane capture)• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small

hydro, geothermal, biofuels)• Nuclear

Energy Efficiency• Power generation and transmission

efficiency• End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances,

lighting, industry, transport, etc.)

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DEMAND DRIVERS

Economic growth and increased incomes are leading to large increases in energy demand

Source: APERC 2006

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UNTAPPED EFFICIENCYBut regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements

100

58

100

46

100

62

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1993 Market Ave. 2000 Market Ave.

Normalized Electricity Use

Refrig-Freezers(42% improvement)

Air Conditioners(54% improvement)

Fluorescent Lamps(38% improvement)

Efficiency gains in Korean appliances – 1993 to 2000

Source: Sun-Keun Lee, 2001

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OIL AND ENERGY SECURITYSoutheast Asia will import 70% of its oil by 2030

Source: APEC 2006

Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption

9Source: BP Statistics 2006

The share of primary energy from coal has risen from 43% in 1980, to 48% in 2005, and is projected to reach 51% in 2030.

Note: This data includes all of Asia, not just developing Asia

COAL RELIANCE (1)Coal is the “fuel of choice” for the next 15-20 years to meet demand

Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to 2005

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro

10

59%

52%

27%

14%

25%

56%

34%

16%

21%

13%

11%19%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

China

India

Philippines

Thailand

Vietnam

Indonesia

Share of primary energy from coal

2002

2030

COAL RELIANCE (2)Share of coal increasing dramatically in India, ASEAN

Note: Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030

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Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities

Local air pollution has been linked to more than 500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO)

LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFossil Fuels Lead to High Particulate Levels

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Current26 billion metric tons CO2

203040 billion metric tons CO2

Source: APERC, TERI

INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asia’s CO2 Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold

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Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030)

2002 2030Source: APERC, TERI

ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCEMore than half of CO2 emissions from power plants

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What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver Bullet

Coal• Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by 2030, will lead to 13

billion metric tons of annual CO2 by 2030Petroleum• Import dependency to increase drastically (exporters turn into importers;

others will import 70-90% of their needs)Natural Gas• By 2030, countries will import between 40-75 percent of their needs. Nuclear • Even with massive investment, nuclear projected to supply only approx. 4-

8% of primary energy needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam)Renewable Sources• Even with major expansion, current estimates project renewables to account

for 5-10% of future energy needs by 2030

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Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type

Typical cost ofavoided electricity generation(about 6-7 US cents/kWh)

Sources: Compiled from Sims et al, 2003; Sawin 2004; LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006

The “least cost” options are energy efficiency, and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new power plant

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Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option

A number of options can reduce CO2 emissions at no net cost

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Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation

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Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation

• Energy-efficient lighting and appliances• Clean coal technologies• Renewable energy technologies

(esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired electricity)

• Energy-efficiency in the transport sector• Biofuels for transportation• Methane capture

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Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future Emissions from Asia’s Developing Economies by 25%

Overview of Thailand Country Report

Thailand Primary Energy Demand by Sources

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1980 2002 2010 2020 2030

Year

Mtoe

Renewables

Hydro

Gas

Oil

Coal

*Renewables includes - biomass, geothermal, solar PV, solar thermal and wind

Source: APERC, 2006

Renewables (8%)

Hydro (0.3%)

Gas (25%)

Oil (40%)

Coal (25%)

Forecast Electricity Supply by Fuel Type

Source: EGAT PDP (4 June 2007)

Share of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Sector

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1980 2002 2010 2020 2030

Year

million tonnes

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Industry

Transformation other than Electricity Generation

Electricity Generation

Source: APERC, 2006 *Note: no data available for commercial

Residential (1%)

Transport (26%)

Industry (28%)

Transformation other than electricity (5%)

Electricity Generation (40%)

*

Vehicular-Related Emission of PM in Bangkok(kilotons of PM10)

Light-duty trucks, 3100, 31%

Long-haul trucks and buses, 500, 5%Passenger cars, 100,

1%

Motorcycles, 1000, 10%

Truck, 2300, 23%Buses, 3000, 30%

Source: ADB, 2006

Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand

Programs

AS of March 31, 2006

Peak Demand Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide

Reduction Reduction Emission Reduction

(MW) (GWh) (Million tons)

1. 36 and 18 Watt Fluorescent Lamp Program 401.5 1,957.5 1.45

2. Energy Efficient Compact Fluorescent 10.0 57.2 0.04

Lamp Program      

3. Energy Efficient Refrigerator Program 236.3 2,357.9 1.74

4. Energy Efficient Air-conditioner Program 640.7 2,686.2 1.87

5. Street Light Program - 17.22 0.01

6. Energy Efficient Ballast Program 13.8 85.0 0.06

7. High Efficiency Motor Program 0.2 1.2 -

8. Green Building Program 2.6 10.3 0.01

Total 1,304.8 7,172.5 5.18

Source: Source: DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM & Planning Division, Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM & Planning Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006

Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S. Utilities(Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a Percentage of Annual Utility Energy

Sales)

RANK STATE PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL KWH SALES

1 Connecticut 8.3%

2 California 7.8%

3 Minnesota 7.6%

4 Washington 7.5%

5 Vermont 7.1%

6 Oregon 6.4%

7 Massachusetts 6.3%

8 Rhode Island 6.2%

THAILAND 5.2%

9 Wisconsin 4.8%

10 Montana 4.3%

U.S. Average 2.1%

Source: EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector Energy Efficiency. August 2006.

Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

The 30% Subsidy Program

EE Revolving Fund

DSM

Biogas Electricity Generation

Mixed Conventional Energy (70% NG)

Mini-hydro, 200 kW-6 MW

Biomass Condensing, 20 MW

Wind Farm, 20,000 kW

MSW Incineration, 3,000 kWSolar PV, large scale, 460 kW

Capital Cost (Baht/kW)_0

_2

_4

_6

_8

_10

_12

_14

Generating Cost (Baht/kWh)

Cost of Delivered Electricity

Capital Cost

Demand Side Measures

Supply Side Measures

Clean Energy Potential (1 of 2)

• Up grade standards for the labeled appliances as well as to add more appliances such as hot water pot and freezer

• Scale up EE programs and incentive for industry• Building energy codes• The government plans to utilize more RE for heat and power, up

to 19% of TPES in 2016• Bio-fuels and waste to energy • Improve efficiency of existing power plants by using CHP• Financing through tax incentive

Clean Energy Potential (2 of 2)

• EE and DSM programs are the most cost-effective • Labeling scheme for energy consumption of new

vehicles• Clean coal technology but has yet be accepted by the

public• Nuclear power is being considered as alternative

source of power in order to decrease reliance on NG and to reduce GHG

Need for GHG Reporting Capacity Building

• Bureau of Energy Research, DEDE, is responsible for estimation of air pollutant emission (CO2, CO, NOx, CH4 and SO2) from energy consumption based on IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories

• The Climate Change Coordinating unit is responsible for the overall GHG inventories.

• Needs include such as; development of coefficient values to calculate GHG of each activity, e.g., rice and pig farming; policy planning guideline on how to mitigate GHG, e.g., if a lot of methane from rice farming is a concern, then, how would the Ministry of Agriculture plan for rice farming area?

The USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

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ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

• Findings of the Regional Analysis A number of viable, low-cost options are ready for immediate

implementation Implementation often limited due to lack of awareness, or technical,

institutional, and financial barriers

• Program Objective Promote market transformation toward clean energy development in

Asia

• Activities increase policy and market incentives mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing share knowledge to accelerate deployment

ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program

Promotes Market Transformation for Clean Energy Development in Asia

• Increase policy and market incentives• Mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing• Share best practices and knowledge to accelerate deployment

Promotes Partnerships and Improves Regional Cooperation• Leverage resources of key regional partners – APP, ADB, ASEAN, and

APEC

Supports National Commitments• Ensure commitments and ownership at national level • Address national clean energy needs and priorities

Geographic Scope: China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam

Program Areas and Outcomes

Program Area Activities Expected Outcomes

Energy efficient lighting

• Benchmarking of CFL programs and standards throughout the region

• Regional quality assurance program for CFLs

• Improved quality and availability of energy-efficient lighting (CFLs)

Cleaner coal • Monitoring coal expansion plans and environmental regulations

• Promote cleaner coal technologies and practices

• Catalyze financing for cleaner coal technologies

• Improved efficiency and environmental standards in coal power plants

• Increased investments in more efficient coal power plants

Clean energy finance

• Train financial institutions to evaluate energy-efficiency loan proposals

• Assist banks to access clean energy lending instruments

• Reduced barriers to lending for clean energy projects

• Increased commercial lending for clean energy projects

Knowledge sharing and networks

• Establish clean energy knowledge portal for Asia region

• Annual regional forum on clean energy policy and finance

• Create learning culture through knowledge management

• Communities of practice in the areas of clean coal and CFLs

Clean Development and Climate Change

Thank You!