from ideas to action: clean energy solutions for asia that address climate change peter du pont,...
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From Ideas to Action:From Ideas to Action:Clean Energy Solutions for AsiaClean Energy Solutions for Asia
that Address Climate Changethat Address Climate Change
Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party, Peter du Pont, PhD, Chief of Party,ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate ProgramECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
Prepared for Prepared for International Conference onInternational Conference onAsia’s Emerging Response to Climate ChangeAsia’s Emerging Response to Climate Change
Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand
23 November 200723 November 2007
2
Overview
1. From Ideas to Action: regional analysis of clean energy options
2. Overview of Thailand Country Reporty
3. Overview of new regional program on clean energy
3
ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program Geographic Coverage
ChinaIndiaIndonesiaPhilippinesThailandVietnam
These 6 countries account for 96% of the GDP of Asia’s developing countries
4
USAID-funded review of clean energy priorities in Asia
Objectives• Identify clean energy priorities –
technologies, sectors, and initiatives• Identify opportunities for regional action
Methodology• organized “listening tours” with 220 key
energy stakeholders in the 6 countries• researched and prepared more than 300
profiles on clean energy institutions, policies, programs
• prepared in-depth country reports on the clean energy opportunities in the 6 countries
5
5
Comparative Evaluation of Fuel Options
Supply-Side Energy• Coal (CCT and carbon storage)• Petroleum• Natural Gas (incl. methane capture)• Renewables (biomass, wind, solar, small
hydro, geothermal, biofuels)• Nuclear
Energy Efficiency• Power generation and transmission
efficiency• End-use efficiency (buildings, appliances,
lighting, industry, transport, etc.)
6
DEMAND DRIVERS
Economic growth and increased incomes are leading to large increases in energy demand
Source: APERC 2006
7
UNTAPPED EFFICIENCYBut regional experience shows significant potential for efficiency improvements
100
58
100
46
100
62
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
1993 Market Ave. 2000 Market Ave.
Normalized Electricity Use
Refrig-Freezers(42% improvement)
Air Conditioners(54% improvement)
Fluorescent Lamps(38% improvement)
Efficiency gains in Korean appliances – 1993 to 2000
Source: Sun-Keun Lee, 2001
8
OIL AND ENERGY SECURITYSoutheast Asia will import 70% of its oil by 2030
Source: APEC 2006
Imported Oil as Share of Total Oil Consumption
9Source: BP Statistics 2006
The share of primary energy from coal has risen from 43% in 1980, to 48% in 2005, and is projected to reach 51% in 2030.
Note: This data includes all of Asia, not just developing Asia
COAL RELIANCE (1)Coal is the “fuel of choice” for the next 15-20 years to meet demand
Primary Energy Mix for Asian Countries, 1980 to 2005
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
10
59%
52%
27%
14%
25%
56%
34%
16%
21%
13%
11%19%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
China
India
Philippines
Thailand
Vietnam
Indonesia
Share of primary energy from coal
2002
2030
COAL RELIANCE (2)Share of coal increasing dramatically in India, ASEAN
Note: Thailand data are for 2021, not 2030
11
Criteria pollutant levels in Asian megacities
Local air pollution has been linked to more than 500,000 premature deaths annually in Asia (WHO)
LOCAL AIR POLLUTIONFossil Fuels Lead to High Particulate Levels
12
Current26 billion metric tons CO2
203040 billion metric tons CO2
Source: APERC, TERI
INCREASING CO2 EMISSIONS Developing Asia’s CO2 Emissions Will Increase 4-Fold
13
Projected CO2 Emissions by Sector (2002 - 2030)
2002 2030Source: APERC, TERI
ELECTRICITY IS MAJOR SOURCEMore than half of CO2 emissions from power plants
14
What is the Answer? There is no Single Silver Bullet
Coal• Expected nearly 4-fold increase in consumption by 2030, will lead to 13
billion metric tons of annual CO2 by 2030Petroleum• Import dependency to increase drastically (exporters turn into importers;
others will import 70-90% of their needs)Natural Gas• By 2030, countries will import between 40-75 percent of their needs. Nuclear • Even with massive investment, nuclear projected to supply only approx. 4-
8% of primary energy needs by 2030 (China, India, Thailand, and Vietnam)Renewable Sources• Even with major expansion, current estimates project renewables to account
for 5-10% of future energy needs by 2030
15
Estimated energy delivery costs by clean energy type
Typical cost ofavoided electricity generation(about 6-7 US cents/kWh)
Sources: Compiled from Sims et al, 2003; Sawin 2004; LBNL, 2005 and IEA, 2006
The “least cost” options are energy efficiency, and they cost ¼ to ½ as much as building a new power plant
16
Costs of carbon reductions by clean energy option
A number of options can reduce CO2 emissions at no net cost
17
Ranking of clean energy options for regional cooperation
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Top 6 priority clean energy technologies and sectors for regional cooperation
• Energy-efficient lighting and appliances• Clean coal technologies• Renewable energy technologies
(esp. onshore wind energy and biomass-fired electricity)
• Energy-efficiency in the transport sector• Biofuels for transportation• Methane capture
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Implementing Just These Options Can Reduce Future Emissions from Asia’s Developing Economies by 25%
Overview of Thailand Country Report
Thailand Primary Energy Demand by Sources
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1980 2002 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mtoe
Renewables
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
*Renewables includes - biomass, geothermal, solar PV, solar thermal and wind
Source: APERC, 2006
Renewables (8%)
Hydro (0.3%)
Gas (25%)
Oil (40%)
Coal (25%)
Forecast Electricity Supply by Fuel Type
Source: EGAT PDP (4 June 2007)
Share of Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1980 2002 2010 2020 2030
Year
million tonnes
Commercial
Residential
Transport
Industry
Transformation other than Electricity Generation
Electricity Generation
Source: APERC, 2006 *Note: no data available for commercial
Residential (1%)
Transport (26%)
Industry (28%)
Transformation other than electricity (5%)
Electricity Generation (40%)
*
Vehicular-Related Emission of PM in Bangkok(kilotons of PM10)
Light-duty trucks, 3100, 31%
Long-haul trucks and buses, 500, 5%Passenger cars, 100,
1%
Motorcycles, 1000, 10%
Truck, 2300, 23%Buses, 3000, 30%
Source: ADB, 2006
Successful Implementation of DSM in Thailand
Programs
AS of March 31, 2006
Peak Demand Energy Consumption Carbon Dioxide
Reduction Reduction Emission Reduction
(MW) (GWh) (Million tons)
1. 36 and 18 Watt Fluorescent Lamp Program 401.5 1,957.5 1.45
2. Energy Efficient Compact Fluorescent 10.0 57.2 0.04
Lamp Program
3. Energy Efficient Refrigerator Program 236.3 2,357.9 1.74
4. Energy Efficient Air-conditioner Program 640.7 2,686.2 1.87
5. Street Light Program - 17.22 0.01
6. Energy Efficient Ballast Program 13.8 85.0 0.06
7. High Efficiency Motor Program 0.2 1.2 -
8. Green Building Program 2.6 10.3 0.01
Total 1,304.8 7,172.5 5.18
Source: Source: DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. DSM in Thailand: The EGAT Experience. Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM & Planning Division, Mrs. Napaporn Phumaraphand, DSM & Planning Division, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). Presented at workshop on Energy Efficiency in Power Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006Distribution and End Use Project, Jakarta, Indonesia. 5 June., 2006
Thailand Benchmarked Against U.S. Utilities(Cumulative Annual Energy Savings as a Percentage of Annual Utility Energy
Sales)
RANK STATE PERCENTAGE OF ANNUAL KWH SALES
1 Connecticut 8.3%
2 California 7.8%
3 Minnesota 7.6%
4 Washington 7.5%
5 Vermont 7.1%
6 Oregon 6.4%
7 Massachusetts 6.3%
8 Rhode Island 6.2%
THAILAND 5.2%
9 Wisconsin 4.8%
10 Montana 4.3%
U.S. Average 2.1%
Source: EGAT data for Thailand. U.S. data from ACEEE. A Nationwide Assessment of Utility Sector Energy Efficiency. August 2006.
Cost Comparison of Clean Energy Options
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
The 30% Subsidy Program
EE Revolving Fund
DSM
Biogas Electricity Generation
Mixed Conventional Energy (70% NG)
Mini-hydro, 200 kW-6 MW
Biomass Condensing, 20 MW
Wind Farm, 20,000 kW
MSW Incineration, 3,000 kWSolar PV, large scale, 460 kW
Capital Cost (Baht/kW)_0
_2
_4
_6
_8
_10
_12
_14
Generating Cost (Baht/kWh)
Cost of Delivered Electricity
Capital Cost
Demand Side Measures
Supply Side Measures
Clean Energy Potential (1 of 2)
• Up grade standards for the labeled appliances as well as to add more appliances such as hot water pot and freezer
• Scale up EE programs and incentive for industry• Building energy codes• The government plans to utilize more RE for heat and power, up
to 19% of TPES in 2016• Bio-fuels and waste to energy • Improve efficiency of existing power plants by using CHP• Financing through tax incentive
Clean Energy Potential (2 of 2)
• EE and DSM programs are the most cost-effective • Labeling scheme for energy consumption of new
vehicles• Clean coal technology but has yet be accepted by the
public• Nuclear power is being considered as alternative
source of power in order to decrease reliance on NG and to reduce GHG
Need for GHG Reporting Capacity Building
• Bureau of Energy Research, DEDE, is responsible for estimation of air pollutant emission (CO2, CO, NOx, CH4 and SO2) from energy consumption based on IPCC Guidelines for GHG Inventories
• The Climate Change Coordinating unit is responsible for the overall GHG inventories.
• Needs include such as; development of coefficient values to calculate GHG of each activity, e.g., rice and pig farming; policy planning guideline on how to mitigate GHG, e.g., if a lot of methane from rice farming is a concern, then, how would the Ministry of Agriculture plan for rice farming area?
The USAID ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
32
ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
• Findings of the Regional Analysis A number of viable, low-cost options are ready for immediate
implementation Implementation often limited due to lack of awareness, or technical,
institutional, and financial barriers
• Program Objective Promote market transformation toward clean energy development in
Asia
• Activities increase policy and market incentives mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing share knowledge to accelerate deployment
ECO-Asia Clean Development and Climate Program
Promotes Market Transformation for Clean Energy Development in Asia
• Increase policy and market incentives• Mobilize and facilitate clean energy financing• Share best practices and knowledge to accelerate deployment
Promotes Partnerships and Improves Regional Cooperation• Leverage resources of key regional partners – APP, ADB, ASEAN, and
APEC
Supports National Commitments• Ensure commitments and ownership at national level • Address national clean energy needs and priorities
Geographic Scope: China, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam
Program Areas and Outcomes
Program Area Activities Expected Outcomes
Energy efficient lighting
• Benchmarking of CFL programs and standards throughout the region
• Regional quality assurance program for CFLs
• Improved quality and availability of energy-efficient lighting (CFLs)
Cleaner coal • Monitoring coal expansion plans and environmental regulations
• Promote cleaner coal technologies and practices
• Catalyze financing for cleaner coal technologies
• Improved efficiency and environmental standards in coal power plants
• Increased investments in more efficient coal power plants
Clean energy finance
• Train financial institutions to evaluate energy-efficiency loan proposals
• Assist banks to access clean energy lending instruments
• Reduced barriers to lending for clean energy projects
• Increased commercial lending for clean energy projects
Knowledge sharing and networks
• Establish clean energy knowledge portal for Asia region
• Annual regional forum on clean energy policy and finance
• Create learning culture through knowledge management
• Communities of practice in the areas of clean coal and CFLs
Clean Development and Climate Change
Thank You!