europa2030 scenario presentation ries kamphof (en)

PRÄSENTATION EINES SZENARIOS ÜBER DIE EU IN 2030

Ries Kamphof (PvdA WG Europe, Niederlande)9 December 2012Grefrath, Deutschland

SCENARIO EUROPE2030: WHY?

Young people: <30 years old

Scientific foundation PvdA (WBS)/Rabobank

Need for ideas and vision EU social democrats

Debate on European cooperation

Scenarios on basis current trends

THE YOUNGER GENERATION

WHAT DOES EUROPE MEAN?

FOCUS IN SCENARIO: CONCERTED ACTION Sustainability

Solidarity

Democracy

But especially: GEMEINSCHÄFTLICHKEIT

Title: Europe as a ‘notwendigen Gemeinschäft’

ASSUMPTIONS BEFOREHAND

Less economic prosperity More scarcity of resources Ageing population Environmental decline EU demographically small as compared

to other continents

SUSTAINABILITY IN EUROPE 2030

Scarcity of resources, food and water

Europe as global ‘knowledge engine’

EU forerunner in ‘Global Sustainability Organization’

Punishing ‘unsustainable’ companies/banks

SUSTAINABILITY IN EUROPE 2030

SOLIDARITY

From economic to more social project in 2030

Tipping point: EU-wide referendum immigration

Less agricultural subsidies, more ‘urban’ solidarity projects

EU DEMOCRACY IN 2012

EU DEMOCRACY IN 2030

EUROPE IN THE WORLD

EUROPE IN THE WORLD

Meagre 6,8 percent of world population in 2030

Concerted action ‘notwendig’ In foreign affairs, trade and defense Especially strong relations with U.S, Australia,

South America, India, South Africa China: ambiguous Eastern countries Europe trade relations with

Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia (new rich countries)

ECONOMIC UNION 2030

A ‘sheer necessity’

Banking Union and supervision

A Euro in 2030?

GENERATIONAL SOLIDARITY?

NEW ‘WELFARE’ CONCEPT

NEW ‘WELFARE’ CONCEPT

Not only focused on economic profit Not only competition Shared prosperity Social minimum Shared values Sobre living Concerted action

CONCRETE EXAMPLE 1: SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY

CONCRETE EXAMPLE 2: REGIONAL SOLIDARITY

EUROPE OF CITIES, METROPOLITAN AREAS AND REGIONS

EU citizens feel more connected region > EU/Member State

Local and regional food production Living labs for democratic initiatives Bottom-up: inclusion private sector Euroregions

CONCLUSION

• Europe as a ‘notwendige Gemeinschäft’ rather positive

• But… less prosperity, more scarcity, ageing population, environmental decline

• Europe becomes stronger by its crises• In Vielfalt geeint• Acting as a community might then just be

more necessary than we currently expect

DISCUSSION

CONTACT?

• rieskamphof@hotmail.com