europa2030 scenario presentation ries kamphof (en)
TRANSCRIPT
PRÄSENTATION EINES SZENARIOS ÜBER DIE EU IN 2030
Ries Kamphof (PvdA WG Europe, Niederlande)9 December 2012Grefrath, Deutschland
SCENARIO EUROPE2030: WHY?
Young people: <30 years old
Scientific foundation PvdA (WBS)/Rabobank
Need for ideas and vision EU social democrats
Debate on European cooperation
Scenarios on basis current trends
THE YOUNGER GENERATION
WHAT DOES EUROPE MEAN?
FOCUS IN SCENARIO: CONCERTED ACTION Sustainability
Solidarity
Democracy
But especially: GEMEINSCHÄFTLICHKEIT
Title: Europe as a ‘notwendigen Gemeinschäft’
ASSUMPTIONS BEFOREHAND
Less economic prosperity More scarcity of resources Ageing population Environmental decline EU demographically small as compared
to other continents
SUSTAINABILITY IN EUROPE 2030
Scarcity of resources, food and water
Europe as global ‘knowledge engine’
EU forerunner in ‘Global Sustainability Organization’
Punishing ‘unsustainable’ companies/banks
SUSTAINABILITY IN EUROPE 2030
SOLIDARITY
From economic to more social project in 2030
Tipping point: EU-wide referendum immigration
Less agricultural subsidies, more ‘urban’ solidarity projects
EU DEMOCRACY IN 2012
EU DEMOCRACY IN 2030
EUROPE IN THE WORLD
EUROPE IN THE WORLD
Meagre 6,8 percent of world population in 2030
Concerted action ‘notwendig’ In foreign affairs, trade and defense Especially strong relations with U.S, Australia,
South America, India, South Africa China: ambiguous Eastern countries Europe trade relations with
Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Armenia (new rich countries)
ECONOMIC UNION 2030
A ‘sheer necessity’
Banking Union and supervision
A Euro in 2030?
GENERATIONAL SOLIDARITY?
NEW ‘WELFARE’ CONCEPT
NEW ‘WELFARE’ CONCEPT
Not only focused on economic profit Not only competition Shared prosperity Social minimum Shared values Sobre living Concerted action
CONCRETE EXAMPLE 1: SUSTAINABLE URBAN MOBILITY
CONCRETE EXAMPLE 2: REGIONAL SOLIDARITY
EUROPE OF CITIES, METROPOLITAN AREAS AND REGIONS
EU citizens feel more connected region > EU/Member State
Local and regional food production Living labs for democratic initiatives Bottom-up: inclusion private sector Euroregions
CONCLUSION
• Europe as a ‘notwendige Gemeinschäft’ rather positive
• But… less prosperity, more scarcity, ageing population, environmental decline
• Europe becomes stronger by its crises• In Vielfalt geeint• Acting as a community might then just be
more necessary than we currently expect
DISCUSSION
