covid-19 geographic analysis (u.s.)...covid-19 geographic analysis (u.s.) state “stay-at-home”...

COVID-19 geographic analysis (U.S.)

State “stay-at-home” orders and their effect on automotive advertising

Microsoft Advertising. Intelligent connections.

1 Considerations & methodology

2 Early movers

3 Late movers

4 Consumer response

Agenda

Confusion in most states about a gray area for dealership sales

Demand-side data (advertiser performance)

Considerations

Data aggregated at designated market area (DMA)-level; exact state lines not preserved

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.cars.com/articles/coronavirus-and-cars-can-i-buy-a-car-or-have-one-repaired-in-my-state-420549/

Methodology

Data available at a monthly cadence; looked at growth changes from Feb→Mar

Feb→Mar 2020 (COVID-19) vs. Feb→Mar 2019 growth (Pre-COVID-19)

Mar year-over-year (YoY) (COVID-19) vs. Feb YoY growth (Pre-COVID-19)

Growth changes displayed as percentage points (“pp”) to represent deltas between two percentages

1. Microsoft internal data

Evaluation

9 states issued statewide “stay-at-home” orders early(Mar 19-23)

9 states issued statewide “stay-at-home” orders late(after Mar 30, or not at all)

1 state offered a discernible time lapse between a specific DMA’s early “stay-at-home” order and a late statewide order

1. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

1. https://mapchart.net/usa.html 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

Early moversHow search performance changed in states that issued “stay-at-home” orders first

For the 9 states that issued early “stay-at-home” orders, Mar 2020 clicks decreased significantly across all sub-verticals

-15pptotal clicks

Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019

-12pptotal clicks

Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

EARLY MOVERS

-19pp

-5.3pp

-3.4pp

-14pp

-2.9pp

-4.7pp

Clicks Impressions Click-through rate (CTR)

Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY

Tier 3 has been hit the hardest

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

EARLY MOVERS

-20pp

-8.9pp

-0.9pp

-17.8pp

-6.4pp

-1.1pp

Clicks Impressions CTR

Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY

“Dealership” keywords declined sharply for Tier 3 advertisers

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

EARLY MOVERS

Late moversSearch performance in states that issued “stay-at-home” orders late or never at all

For the 9 states that issued “stay-at-home” orders late or not at all, Mar 2020 clicks were relatively flat

-0.5ppTotal clicks Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019

-0.4ppTotal clicks Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY

3 of 9 statesTotal clicks were up

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

LATE MOVERS

Tier 3 clicks increased, outpacing total clicks

+0.9ppFeb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019

+0.8ppMar YoY vs. Feb YoY

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

LATE MOVERS

In Georgia, there was a discernable time lapse between an early “stay-at-home” order for one specific county and the late state-wide order

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

LATE MOVERS

-1.8ppFeb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019

-1.8ppMar YoYvs. Feb YoY

Total clicks decreased in the Albany, GA DMA, where DoughteryCounty issued an early “stay-at-home” order

Total clicks increased in

GA DMAs that waited for the late

statewide “stay-at-

home” order

+4.3ppFeb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019

+4ppMar YoYvs. Feb YoY

Consumer responseWhat search performance tells us about consumers in troubling times

Consumers turn to big brand messaging when it matters most

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

2.6pp

-12.3pp

2.1pp

-12.2pp

Tier 1 Total

Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY

For the 19 states analyzed with either early, late or no “stay-at-home” orders, Mar 2020 Tier 1 CTR increased while CTR for the rest of the vertical decreased significantly

1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

This week, incentive queries for brands offering relief are up 52% week over week (WoW)

Example keyword phrases include deals, rebates, offers, discounts, specialsMicrosoft Internal Data, January-March 24, 2020^Week 1-2 removed due to outliers in post-NYE query volume.

Since publicizing their relief efforts, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) providing COVID-19 specific incentives are seeing a lift in search volume

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

OEM incentives announced

Incentive + OEM brand search result page views (SRPVs) per week

Weeks

15.6pp

10.1pp

5pp

19.3pp

11.8pp

5.3pp

Clicks Impressions CTR

Feb→Mar 2020 vs. 2019 Mar YoY vs. Feb YoY

Keywords with “incentives” intent surge

Example keyword phrases include deals, rebates, offers, discounts, specials1. Microsoft internal data 2. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-stay-at-home-order.html

U.S. AUTO VERTICAL ALL-UP

3.0

4.5

6.0

7.5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

This year, WoW

Last year, WoW

This week, YoY

Year to date (YTD), YoY

Nationwide SRPVs for incentives are up, but ad saturation has declined -14.5% YoY, granting a recourse for advertisersWeekly density for incentive-specific in-market queries.

Example keyword phrases include deals, rebates, offers, discounts, specialsMicrosoft Internal Data, January-March 25, 2019; January-March 24, 2020*Density = Ad Impressions / Bidded SRPVs (ie average # of ads per bidded query)

▬ 2020 Density

▬ 2019 Density

Weeks

User interest has peaked, but ad options have decreased, enabling advertisers to re-enter the market with a +10% more cost-efficient cost per click (CPC), as well as the opportunity to message consumers in a less convoluted space

-14.5%

-13.2%

-4.0%

-5.3%

Strategies and recommendations

Learn immediate and recovery-phase strategies, and how to approach new opportunities and optimize account health in the Digital Advertiser’s Guide to COVID-19

Microsoft Advertising. Intelligent connections.