“connecting people and places” regional mobility plan future scenarios october 19, 2009

“Connecting People and Places”

REGIONAL MOBILITY PLANFuture Scenarios

October 19, 2009

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Federal Highway Administration encourages the analysis of future scenarios in long range transportation planningFHWA is the review/certification agency

Used in a numerous planning efforts across the country at all levels

Provides a high–level conceptual view of the future

Provides information for developing a policy framework for the region and local governments Achieve identified goals and objectives

Connecting People and PlacesRegional Mobility Plan

Connecting People and PlacesScenario Analysis

Develop Future Conditions

Utilize Existing Conditions

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

What the scenario analysis is:High level, conceptual look at future growth

patterns and the impactsBasis for a framework for policy development

What the scenario analysis is not:Development of prescriptive land use

requirements for local governmentsIdentification of parcel based land uses

Connecting People and Places

Scenario Development

Develop overall visionApril, 2007 Retreat

Developed mission and vision Four major themes

Sustainability and quality of lifeEconomic competitiveness and prosperityInterconnected regional multimodal

transportation networkLinking land use to transportation, economic

development and the environment

Connecting People and Places

Scenario Development

Develop Guidance - Goals and ObjectivesApril, 2009 Retreat

Developed Guiding PrinciplesBased on four major themes

June, 2009 – September, 2009Developed Goals and Objectives

Drawn from vision and guiding principlesIncorporated quality growth principlesIncorporated SAFETEA-LU planning factors

Connecting People and Places

Scenario Development

Public/Stakeholder ParticipationIdentification of issuesSurveys and Exercises

Community Choices surveyRegional Mobility SurveyBucks exercise

Identification of GoalsIdentification of future development

patterns and transportation infrastructure

Connecting People and Places

Scenario Development

Future Development Scenarios

Three scenarios for analysis:Scenario 1: “Business as Usual”

Scenario 2: Quality Growth PrinciplesGoals and Objectives

Scenario 3?

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

LEON COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

WAKULLA COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

JEFFERSON COUNTY: FUTURE

DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION

FACILITIES

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

GADSDEN COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual”What will our region look like if we keep doing what we are doing?

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual”

Identify developable land, excluding designated conservation areas; military/government areas; identified wetlands; and the incorporation of any designated buffer requirements

Using base year population developed for travel demand model, identify existing densities within the region

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual”

Utilize population projections for planning horizon years (2040 and 2060) and assign existing densities to land suited for development

Assignment hierarchy for developmentApproved planned developmentsExisting large parcels (i.e, timber company

holdings)Land in proximity to existing suburban

developmentLand in proximity to existing infrastructure

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Principles and the Goals

and Objectives

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth ScenariosScenario # 2: Quality Growth Scenario

Utilize same population projections and land suited for development as Scenario 1

Apply constraints to the land suited for development, excludingCritical environmental areas that may be negatively

impacted by growth and developmentIdentify areas for focused density centers

Increase densities within the identified growth centers

Decrease densities outside of the growth centers

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Scenario

Assignment hierarchy for development

Approved planned developmentsExisting areas of developmentLand served by existing infrastructure

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario # 3: Potential Options?

Hybrid densities and assignment hierarchy

Development within framework of comprehensive plans

Development within framework of existing ordinances and regulations

Connecting People and Places

Future Growth Scenarios

Scenario Assessment will evaluate impacts on:

Land use

Transportation

Environmental, Cultural and Historical Resources

Safety and Security

Quality of Life

Connecting People and Places

QUESTIONS?