climate change and heat: risks to defence forces

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Climate Security Roundtable/ Climate

Change Institute

ADFA

April 12, 2016

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But - are some risks “perhaps unacceptable”?

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Butler et al, 2005 (Ecosystems)

direct & indirect

Log scale

Log scale

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“Primary” (easily foreseeable)

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Super Typhoon Haiyan approaching the Philippines on Nov 7, 2013. Credit: EUMETSAT (Wide-angle satellite image)

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A woman, who survived the typhoon by climbing up a steep hill, stands beside her temporary home. “I’m scared living here. When the tide comes up here, I’m very nervous that my house will be destroyed,” she said. Photograph: Eleanor Farmer/Oxfam

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“Tertiary” (potentially catastrophic)

“Primary” (easily foreseeable)

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“Secondary” (less obvious)

Old location

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Burden of Disease (proportion)

Year widely accepted

now 2050?

PRIMARY (eg heat, injury, productivity)

SECONDARY (e.g. vector-borne diseases, air pollution, allergies)

TERTIARY: (a “systemic multiplier”)via famine, conflict,

large-scale migration, economic collapse

Butler et al, 2014

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Butler et al, 2014

Mental health: “crosscut”

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Watts et al, Lancet 2015

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Dept of Defence, climate change and health

Heat – quintuple vulnerability including conflict / disaster relief / peacekeeping in hot countries

Vector borne diseases, other infectious diseases

Conflict-related injuries

Post traumatic stress disorder

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Dept of Defence, climate change and heat

Quintuple vulnerability

1.Warmer external temperatures (+humidity?)2.Instability/disasters in already hot places3.Internal heat (weight bearing exercise)4.Heat capture (clothing, equipment)5.Additional external heat? (heat island effects, fires)

Heat stress, heat exhaustion, deathDehydration and heat: renal impairmentNeural slowdown – Multiple Sclerosis – others?Exacerbation of chronic diseases? (also mental ill-health)Impacts due to family members & colleagues who are vulnerable (partners, parents, senior staff?)Unknown effects