chris and gavin libdem regional conference 2016

♯The Order of the PhoenixChris BonesGavin Grant

• Strategic and campaigns communications specialist with international experience and former Campiagns Director for the Liberal Party

• CEO of the RSPCA 2012-2014• Chairman of Burson Marsteller

2007-2012• Global Head of Communications

for The Body Shop International (1993-1999)

• Running around with Paddy in 1997

• Reading President and NUS Executive 1979/80

Who are we in real life?

• Chairman of one of the SW’s largest digital consulting businesses

• Dean of one of the top Business Schools in Europe (2004-2010)

• Chairman of the Terrence Higgins Trust (2012-2014)

• Winner of the UK’s Management Book of the Year

• Running around with Paddy oin 1997

• First Student President of the SDP• Aberdeen Deputy President and

NUS Executive 1980/81

Gavin Grant Chris Bones

• What we need for success in 2017 (Gavin)• The SW electoral landscape since last year (Gavin)

• Input and analysis• Discussion

• Making digital work (Chris)• Input and analysis• Discussion

• Developing our party (Chris)• Input• Activity• Discussion

Flow for the session

• Data – who are the likely voters and who might consider us?• Insight – what are the issues that engage them?

• Digital Impact – in social and search and web• Clarity – what we stand for locally and nationally• Infrastructure and resources to make it work well

• Development culture – to attract and engage thousands of new members• Communication strategies that engage• Self awareness to change ‘how we do things around here’

Success comes from getting the 3Ds right

Data and InsightGavin Grant

Campaign and Candidate matter, BUT……

Mood and Message matter more, AND…..

VALUES AND VALENCE MATTER MOST!

Be driven by data

• Upbringing

• Education

• Experience

Be driven by data

”Do I believe from what I’ve seen, and those that I trust say, that they are……?”

- competent (have the experience/knowledge to do it)

- capable (have the specific skills to deliver it)

- credible (have already done it or something like it)

Values Valence

• Find Voters’ Values by asking them …- survey questions that draw out their values- “wedge” questions that differentiate LD from

Con/Lab - to evaluate and rank Parties according to their

values- likelihood on a scale to vote LD in different

elections- their age- when they stopped full-time education- for their contact details (email, mobile/home

phone)

Be driven by data

• Valence assessments are made in experience and deliver expectation. • Be competent, capable and credible in all things (case work,

correspondence, community meetings/events)• Be the MP/Councillor “Community Champion” in everything you

do and in how you behave

• Seeing is believing • Show through action (visual/instant – social media) • Tell but don’t just tell (words – FOCUS/traditional media)

Be driven by data

Mood - Change• Rapid and unwelcome to many

- Technology- Open markets/movement of people- Culture/behaviour shift

• Optimist or Pessimist about my/our future?• Political loyalty is dying

- under 50% of UK voters identify with any Party- Lib Dem “brand” is very weak

Be driven by data

Mood - BREXIT and Trump- Trump:No landslide – 59.9m; up1m (same as

McCain)- Clinton: Won popular vote - 60.1m; down 2m on

2012 and 9.4m on 2008 (up 1m on 2004)- Not Trump or ClintonBig increase – 6.1m; up 4.2m on 2012

But…..

Be driven by data

Mood - BREXIT and Trump“Are the following a force for good….?”

Leave/Trump Remain/ClintonFeminism 40%/28% 60%/60%Globalisation 39%/23% 61%/44%Green Movement 38%/35% 62%/60%Immigration 21%/18% 79%/43%Social Liberalism 32%/14% 68%/48%

Good news: the UK is more liberal and so….

Be driven by data

Opportunity Knocks…..• People see themselves (and Lib Dems) as

“Centrist”• Voters: Centre 45%, Right 30%, Left 25%• Clegg and Farron seen as “most Centrist”

• Lib Dems - the least “rejected” Party (UKIP the most)• 2010 Lib Dem voters open to “coming home”• EU membership THE issue for 50% of

“Remainers”• Disarray: Labour, Greens, UKIP (& possibly

Tories)• Lib Dem by-election “surge” – 21 gains (12 in

SW)

Be driven by data

Winning on Opportunity Knocks…..• Marked Register - “Always/Sometimes/Never”

voters• Always (PCC election) are 50% of 2017 vote• Sometimes (EU Referendum minus PCC)• Never (not in PCC/2015/EU referendum)

• Know the Values and Issues of “Always” and all PVs• Sign-up LD “likelys/values” & “young” EU

Referendum voters as Postal Voters• Ignore “Never/Hostile/elderly EU Referendum”

households• Age and education prime drivers of “liberal

values”

Be driven by data

Some Sirens MUST be heard…..• Liberally-minded/Pro Remain Conservative voters are

open to us (Witney Parliamentary By-election)Con 17,313 (45.0% - 15.2%)Lib Dem 11,611 (30.2% + 23.4%)

Labour 5,765 (15.0% - 2.2%)Green 1,363 (3.5% - 1.6%)UKIP 1,354 (3.5% - 5.7%)Others 1,053 (3.0% + 1.3%)

Some Sirens MUST be IGNORED…..• No to “Progressive” electoral pacts/slates

- Labour vote share dropping outside London- Green vote share/candidates collapsing

Be driven by data

• Campaign and Candidate matter BUT……

..Mood and Message matter more AND

..Values and Valence matter most, SO

..We’ll Win by being Data Smart!

Winning with data

Winning Smart Data Action Plan:• Buy and in-put EVERY Marked Register at EVERY election.• Canvass and Target Always Voters• Selectively recruit Postal Voters from LD leaning

“Sometimes/Never”• Remove committed “Against” from Target Pools• Test Values/Valence Messages through Residents Surveys and

Doorstep/Phone scripts• Use Residents Surveys to gather demographic data• Use Residents Surveys and Doorstep/Phone scripts for self

assessed Party Identification/different election likelihood of Lib Dem support

• Use Connect’s Demographic/Age/Remain data for smart comms.

Winning with data

DigitalChris Bones

Interest in political partiesSource: SEM Rush, Good Growth Ltd

Interest in BrexitSource SEM Rush/Good Growth Ltd

July August September0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

Brexit

Num

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Interest in current political issuesSource SEM Rush/Good Growth Ltd

Article

50

Bene

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Grammar

school

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Living

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Socia

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NHS fund

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Junior

Doctors

Const

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Votes

at 16

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Number of online searches for key terms

July August September

Num

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BrexitSource: Google

Grammar SchoolsSource: Google

Top Keywords: buy these to find support in the mass of users• Of 1m a month who search ‘brexit’ 48% may well have voted

remain• In that 48% we know that at least half are open to hearing from

us – that’s about 240,000 people a month.• If we can attract 10% of them to engage with us – we talk to

24,000 a month (and don’t ask them for money or to deliver 1000 leaflets)

Long Tail Keywords: buy these to find like-minded users• Of the 300 a month who search votes for 16 year olds, they

could all be interested in us and if engaged effectively could convert into votes, supporters or even members.

You can ‘geo-locate’ interest down to region/town – you’ll reduce traffic but increase relevance and spend effectiveness and you can measure return.

Outside the short campaign, buying interest is more effective than shoving paper through anonymous doors in locating supportI’m much more willing to listen if you are talking about what I think is important to me

But where you take them has to be credibleThis talks about us not the voters

But where you take them has to be credibleThis tells voters we are listening to them

And when they look for us?Many of us look like this

And when they look for us?But some have done their homework

Developing Culture

• Direct• Driving• Impatient• Competitive

• Analytical• Detailed• Accurate• Critical

Which best describes you?

Enthusiastic Optimistic Innovative Impulsive

Collaborative Patient Good listener Reliable

• Find 3-4 people like you• Your group find another group from the ‘opposite’

corner• Find out – how they want to be engaged and how they

feel/react to the way you like to engage• Decide what you can change to improve the chances

of engaging more people more effectively• Then we will hear from you about how you can use

this (and other tools) to improve our new member engagement

Exercise