chris and gavin libdem regional conference 2016
TRANSCRIPT
♯The Order of the PhoenixChris BonesGavin Grant
• Strategic and campaigns communications specialist with international experience and former Campiagns Director for the Liberal Party
• CEO of the RSPCA 2012-2014• Chairman of Burson Marsteller
2007-2012• Global Head of Communications
for The Body Shop International (1993-1999)
• Running around with Paddy in 1997
• Reading President and NUS Executive 1979/80
Who are we in real life?
• Chairman of one of the SW’s largest digital consulting businesses
• Dean of one of the top Business Schools in Europe (2004-2010)
• Chairman of the Terrence Higgins Trust (2012-2014)
• Winner of the UK’s Management Book of the Year
• Running around with Paddy oin 1997
• First Student President of the SDP• Aberdeen Deputy President and
NUS Executive 1980/81
Gavin Grant Chris Bones
• What we need for success in 2017 (Gavin)• The SW electoral landscape since last year (Gavin)
• Input and analysis• Discussion
• Making digital work (Chris)• Input and analysis• Discussion
• Developing our party (Chris)• Input• Activity• Discussion
Flow for the session
• Data – who are the likely voters and who might consider us?• Insight – what are the issues that engage them?
• Digital Impact – in social and search and web• Clarity – what we stand for locally and nationally• Infrastructure and resources to make it work well
• Development culture – to attract and engage thousands of new members• Communication strategies that engage• Self awareness to change ‘how we do things around here’
Success comes from getting the 3Ds right
Data and InsightGavin Grant
Campaign and Candidate matter, BUT……
Mood and Message matter more, AND…..
VALUES AND VALENCE MATTER MOST!
Be driven by data
• Upbringing
• Education
• Experience
Be driven by data
”Do I believe from what I’ve seen, and those that I trust say, that they are……?”
- competent (have the experience/knowledge to do it)
- capable (have the specific skills to deliver it)
- credible (have already done it or something like it)
Values Valence
• Find Voters’ Values by asking them …- survey questions that draw out their values- “wedge” questions that differentiate LD from
Con/Lab - to evaluate and rank Parties according to their
values- likelihood on a scale to vote LD in different
elections- their age- when they stopped full-time education- for their contact details (email, mobile/home
phone)
Be driven by data
• Valence assessments are made in experience and deliver expectation. • Be competent, capable and credible in all things (case work,
correspondence, community meetings/events)• Be the MP/Councillor “Community Champion” in everything you
do and in how you behave
• Seeing is believing • Show through action (visual/instant – social media) • Tell but don’t just tell (words – FOCUS/traditional media)
Be driven by data
Mood - Change• Rapid and unwelcome to many
- Technology- Open markets/movement of people- Culture/behaviour shift
• Optimist or Pessimist about my/our future?• Political loyalty is dying
- under 50% of UK voters identify with any Party- Lib Dem “brand” is very weak
Be driven by data
Mood - BREXIT and Trump- Trump:No landslide – 59.9m; up1m (same as
McCain)- Clinton: Won popular vote - 60.1m; down 2m on
2012 and 9.4m on 2008 (up 1m on 2004)- Not Trump or ClintonBig increase – 6.1m; up 4.2m on 2012
But…..
Be driven by data
Mood - BREXIT and Trump“Are the following a force for good….?”
Leave/Trump Remain/ClintonFeminism 40%/28% 60%/60%Globalisation 39%/23% 61%/44%Green Movement 38%/35% 62%/60%Immigration 21%/18% 79%/43%Social Liberalism 32%/14% 68%/48%
Good news: the UK is more liberal and so….
Be driven by data
Opportunity Knocks…..• People see themselves (and Lib Dems) as
“Centrist”• Voters: Centre 45%, Right 30%, Left 25%• Clegg and Farron seen as “most Centrist”
• Lib Dems - the least “rejected” Party (UKIP the most)• 2010 Lib Dem voters open to “coming home”• EU membership THE issue for 50% of
“Remainers”• Disarray: Labour, Greens, UKIP (& possibly
Tories)• Lib Dem by-election “surge” – 21 gains (12 in
SW)
Be driven by data
Winning on Opportunity Knocks…..• Marked Register - “Always/Sometimes/Never”
voters• Always (PCC election) are 50% of 2017 vote• Sometimes (EU Referendum minus PCC)• Never (not in PCC/2015/EU referendum)
• Know the Values and Issues of “Always” and all PVs• Sign-up LD “likelys/values” & “young” EU
Referendum voters as Postal Voters• Ignore “Never/Hostile/elderly EU Referendum”
households• Age and education prime drivers of “liberal
values”
Be driven by data
Some Sirens MUST be heard…..• Liberally-minded/Pro Remain Conservative voters are
open to us (Witney Parliamentary By-election)Con 17,313 (45.0% - 15.2%)Lib Dem 11,611 (30.2% + 23.4%)
Labour 5,765 (15.0% - 2.2%)Green 1,363 (3.5% - 1.6%)UKIP 1,354 (3.5% - 5.7%)Others 1,053 (3.0% + 1.3%)
Some Sirens MUST be IGNORED…..• No to “Progressive” electoral pacts/slates
- Labour vote share dropping outside London- Green vote share/candidates collapsing
Be driven by data
• Campaign and Candidate matter BUT……
..Mood and Message matter more AND
..Values and Valence matter most, SO
..We’ll Win by being Data Smart!
Winning with data
Winning Smart Data Action Plan:• Buy and in-put EVERY Marked Register at EVERY election.• Canvass and Target Always Voters• Selectively recruit Postal Voters from LD leaning
“Sometimes/Never”• Remove committed “Against” from Target Pools• Test Values/Valence Messages through Residents Surveys and
Doorstep/Phone scripts• Use Residents Surveys to gather demographic data• Use Residents Surveys and Doorstep/Phone scripts for self
assessed Party Identification/different election likelihood of Lib Dem support
• Use Connect’s Demographic/Age/Remain data for smart comms.
Winning with data
DigitalChris Bones
Interest in political partiesSource: SEM Rush, Good Growth Ltd
Interest in BrexitSource SEM Rush/Good Growth Ltd
July August September0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Brexit
Num
ber o
f sea
rche
s
Interest in current political issuesSource SEM Rush/Good Growth Ltd
Article
50
Bene
fit cu
ts
Grammar
school
s
Living
wage
Socia
l Hou
sing
NHS fund
ingTri
dent
Junior
Doctors
Const
itutio
nal Refo
rm
Votes
at 16
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
Number of online searches for key terms
July August September
Num
ber o
f Sea
rche
s
BrexitSource: Google
Grammar SchoolsSource: Google
Top Keywords: buy these to find support in the mass of users• Of 1m a month who search ‘brexit’ 48% may well have voted
remain• In that 48% we know that at least half are open to hearing from
us – that’s about 240,000 people a month.• If we can attract 10% of them to engage with us – we talk to
24,000 a month (and don’t ask them for money or to deliver 1000 leaflets)
Long Tail Keywords: buy these to find like-minded users• Of the 300 a month who search votes for 16 year olds, they
could all be interested in us and if engaged effectively could convert into votes, supporters or even members.
You can ‘geo-locate’ interest down to region/town – you’ll reduce traffic but increase relevance and spend effectiveness and you can measure return.
Outside the short campaign, buying interest is more effective than shoving paper through anonymous doors in locating supportI’m much more willing to listen if you are talking about what I think is important to me
But where you take them has to be credibleThis talks about us not the voters
But where you take them has to be credibleThis tells voters we are listening to them
And when they look for us?Many of us look like this
And when they look for us?But some have done their homework
Developing Culture
• Direct• Driving• Impatient• Competitive
• Analytical• Detailed• Accurate• Critical
Which best describes you?
Enthusiastic Optimistic Innovative Impulsive
Collaborative Patient Good listener Reliable
• Find 3-4 people like you• Your group find another group from the ‘opposite’
corner• Find out – how they want to be engaged and how they
feel/react to the way you like to engage• Decide what you can change to improve the chances
of engaging more people more effectively• Then we will hear from you about how you can use
this (and other tools) to improve our new member engagement
Exercise