china’s maritime silk road and international developments in the south china sea: a naval...
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China’s Maritime Silk Road and
International Developments in the South China Sea:
A Naval Perspective
Vijay SakhujaDirector
National Maritime Foundation New Delhi
Maritime Silk Road
Developments in South China Sea
Maritime/Naval Dynamics
Rise of Asia in the
21st Century
Enhanced economic dynamism
Geoeconomic construct : trade and energy flows
Distinctive maritime focus
Geostrategic construct : region characterized by continental and maritime powers
Economics and security shaping eco-pol-mil discourse
INDIA
JAPAN
THE BLUE TAPESTRY
CHINA
Dependence on sea lanes
Economic prosperity intertwined with maritime affairs
Regional waterways : strategic for merchant and naval shipping
Military modernisation : Maritime orientation
ASEAN
US
China Indonesia India
Maritime Silk Road Global Maritime Axis Monsoon
Historical ; Economic; Strategic
Historical ; Economic ; Strategic
Historical
Recalling the ancient maritime preeminence
21st century is rediscovery of their maritime power
Harness the seas for realization of power potential
Build naval power to preclude dominance
Exhibit ability to ensure order at sea
2011 : China-ASEAN Maritime Co-operation Fund proposed and Yuan 3 billion committed 2013 : MSR announced at the 16th China-ASEAN Summit Brunei
“we need to steadily advance maritime cooperation. We should work together to build the Maritime Silk Road of the 21st century, and intensify cooperation on marine economy, maritime connectivity, ……………….”;
ASEAN welcomed the MSR but sought clarifications
Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bangladesh happy to join the MSR
June 2014 : MSR discussed during Hamid Ansari’s visit to China ‘more details to be able to study the proposal in all its fullness’
Maritime Silk Road
Maritime Silk Road
Southwest Silk Road
Silk Road on Grassfields
Silk Road through Oasis and Desserts
Silk Road on Ice Silk Road through Mountains
Silk Road through Oasis and Desserts
4.4 billion people or 63% of the world’s population
Wealth : US $2.1 trillion or 29% of global GDP
Pol-Dip Economic Strategic Cultural
Consolidate relations with countries in Asia and beyond
Build infra to support trade with countries along the route
Outposts for PLAN ops in the Indian Ocean
Promote Chinese culture
Great power status
Investment and profits
Dispel China threat
Soft power
Challenge hegemony
Energy Security
Mil Sales Enhance tourism
Maritime Silk Road
Maritime Silk Road : Reactions
India ‘Strategic encirclement’ by China through covert and overt mil-strat support to neighbours particularly Pakistan
United States
‘String of pearls’ coined by Booz Allen Hamilton highlighting China’s energy supply chain strategy; also explain China’s naval presence in Indian Ocean
China Dispel ‘China threat’, which envisages ‘shared destiny’ of China with Asian countries through joint development of maritime infrastructure to provide impetus to economic growth
Developments in
South China Sea
Country Location Runway (m)
Aircraft
China Woody Island 2350 Su 27, Su 30, J10
Malaysia Layang Layang 600 C 130C235
Vietnam Truong Sa Lon 600 ???????
Taiwan Taipingdao 600 ???????
Philippines Pagasa (Rancudo) Airfield)
1300 C 130
Fiery Cross /Subi /Mischief Reefs3 X 3-km runways
Activities ‘lawful, reasonable and justifiable’ Discharging international responsibility and obligation towards SAR and disaster prevention and mitigation
‘provide regional countries with these much needed public goods at sea’.
Xi Jinping Pledges No Militarization in Disputed Islands
China and ASEAN : Set up hotlines for SAR and rapid responses to maritime emergencies
Submarine-related infrastructure at Yulin Naval Base, Hainan
Woody Island has runway, mobile missile battery, naval facilities, and network of Intel and Com infrastructure
Mid-air refuelling enhances loiter and Su27, Su30, JF 10 stand-off weapon capability makes them formidable
Liaoning can launch about 30 fixed-wing
CHINA
6 x Project 636M diesel-electric submarines (US $2 bn) by 2016
2+2 x Gepard-class frigates (US$ 350 million)
20+ 12 Su 30 fighter jets in three instalments. (worth US$ 450 million or US$ 600 million) delivery of third batch by 2015
VIETNAM
Financial constraints , preoccupation with counter insurgency precluded building up the navy
Weakest in terms of naval power and relies on the US for its security requirements
BRP Ramon Alcaraz (3,250 tonnes decommissioned Hamilton-class US Coast Guard cutter) transferred under the military assistance programme.
‘It will further intensify our patrolling of the Philippines' EEZ and our capability to quell any threat and bad elements, respond to search and rescue operations and take care of our marine resources’ President Benigno Aquino
Philippines
RMN has set up five naval facilities for operations in South China Sea : Sungai Antu in Sarawak and four in Sabah, i.e. Labuan, Sandakan, Semporna and Sepanggar
Scorpene class submarines based in RMN HQ Region II
RMAF operates the Su 30
MALAYSIA
Threat of overwhelming Chinese military power
Number of missiles in China targeted against Taiwan
Taiping Island (Itu Aba) jetty to berth small vessels - 6 tons
Airstrip : partially loaded Hercules C-130H in “extremely good” weather conditions
Plans to modernize and expand these facilities to position coast guard ships
Taiwan
Airstrips : the proverbial ‘unsinkable aircraft carriers’
Sophisticated approach to augment military infrastructure
Tourism and marine leisure industry harnessed to build landing facilities for ships and aircraft.
Several islets are being developed as tourism destinations and the leisure industry is invited to invest Airstrips can stage smaller aircraft including helicopters, but are not equipped for extended staging facility
Ship jetties, berths and safe anchorages support operations and provided shelter during the typhoon months Provide minor repairs and rest & recuperation for the crew
Conclusion
SCS MSRInfrastructure Military Commercial /military
Regional Perceptions Anxious Receptive/Anxious
Intent and Response Aggressive Benign/Aggressive
Military Response Build-up Build-up/Access
Regional Security Uncertain Competitive
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