challenges and opportunities: water management and development in the zambezi

CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES

WATER MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT

THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN

John Metzger, Senior AdviserZambezi Watercourse Commission, Harare, Zimbabwe

29 April 2014

Presentation Outline 2

1. Basin Context

2. Challenges

3. Opportunities

4. Next steps

Contextthe Zambezi and other River Basins:

3Okavango Mekong Nile Zambezi

Basin Area

(km2)429,400 822,200 160,000,000 1,370,000

Avg annual

flow (km3)10 495 84

@ Aswan130

River

length (km)1,100 4,800 6,853 2,650

Population

(million)1.3 > 60 > 160 > 32

Riparian

countries3 6 11 8

Key features - the Zambezi River Basin4

� 8 countries:

� Angola

� Botswana

� Malawi

� Mozambique

� Namibia

� Tanzania

� Zambia

� Zimbabwe

� 13 sub-basins:

The Zambezi River BasinBasin areas by country

5

the Zambezi River BasinPopulation and distribution

6

� Within the basin:

� > 32 million today:� 85% in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe

� Increasing to 51 million by 2025

� 7.6 million in 21 urban centres

The Zambezi River Basin7

The Zambezi River BasinEconomic development

8

� > 6% annual economic growth

� Annual GDP: $100bn annual GDP

� GDP/capita: $122 (Zimbabwe) to $7,000 (Botswana)

� Persistent poverty, but dual economies:� Some new investments possible in large infrastructure, and

� Many relying on subsistence livelihoods based on environmental services

� Some important World Heritage and Ramsar sites

� Significant reliance on nature-based tourism

� Climatic variability est. GDP loss ~1%

Challenges9

ChallengesSocio-economic

10

� Lack of significant investments in infrastructure in the past 30 years

� Limited coordinated development:

� Economic inefficiencies

� Loss of productivity

� Impaired ability of natural systems to sustain environmental services

� Increased risks to extreme climate events

ChallengesClimate Change Impacts

11

� Preliminary assessments:

� Likely reduced runoff yield

� Reduced flows of 26-40%

� Increased irrigation deficits

� Avg. temperature increases of 1.5C

� Reduction in firm energy production of 32%

� But, high levels of uncertainty

Challenges12

� Benefits of cooperation have been recognised

� but realising them has been elusive

� No significant investments in water management and development in the basin in the past 30 years!

Opportunities13

OpportunitiesThe time is right for action now!

14

� Pent-up socio-economic demand in the region

� Political will is there:

�Legal and institutional arrangements are now in place

�Mutual-benefits of cooperation increasingly understood

� Strong technical and analytical frameworks:

� as a basis for developing and agreement investments in hydropower, agriculture, environment and transport, etc.

� > $16bn in infrastructure investments identified

� Increased cooperation can bring added benefits from existing infrastructure

Enabling legal frameworks for cooperationbased on benefit-sharing:

15

� Initiatives on-going from the1940s

� Zambezi River Authority – Zambia/Zimbabwe

� Kariba Dam - commissioned in 1960

� Other regional agreements in the past >30 years:

� 1995 SADC Protocol – revised/ratified 2003

� Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) - 1995

� Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)

� Negotiations started in 1980s

� Signed in 2004

� Into force in 2011- interim Secretariat in Botswana

� Permanent Commission in 2014 – Secretariat in Zimbabwe

ZAMCOM Agreement16

� Objective:

� “To promote the equitable and reasonable utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof”

ZAMCOM Governance17

Long history of cooperative efforts, supported by solid analytical foundations providing a strong data, information and

knowledge base

Report on the Zambezi River Commission

1995

18

Much AnalyticalWork Already Done!

Analytical Frameworkfor equitable and reasonable utilisation

19

Transboundary CooperationTypes of benefits

20

(Sadoff and Grey, 2005)

Type Opportunity

1. To

the river

Improved quality, flow regime, biodiversity, sustainability

2. From

the river

Increased benefits from hydropower, agriculture, flood/drought management, navigation, environmental conservation, recreation, etc.

3. Because of

the river

Improved regional relations based on cooperation and development for water, food and energy security…e.g. reduced conflicts

4. Beyond

the river

Regional economic integration of markets and trade

“Balanced” approachZambezi River basin development

21

SAPP: Southern Africa Power

Pool investment plan

Development OpportunitiesBalanced scenario

22

� A balanced approach combining hydropower, irrigation and other investments

� requires trade-offs between regions/sectors agreed

� overall benefits maximised

� Investments totalling about $16.1bn over 15yrs

� NPV = $110m

� Return on investment = 10%

23

Existing and Potential HEPs

24

Existing and Potential HEPsZambezi mainstream

Current and Potential Hydropower25

� Coordinated operation of existing dams = 7% increase in firm energy adding $585m over 30 yrs

� At no added cost!

Current Potential

Installed HEP generation capacity

5,000 MWhalf of SAPP HEP

13,000 MW

With potentialinvestments of

$10.6 bn

Increase in average energy production

30,000 GWh/yr 90,000GWh/yr

Increase in firm energy production

23,000 GWh/yr 58,000 GWh/yr

Current and Potential Irrigation26

Current

Identified

100 ha1,000 ha

10,000 ha

100,000 ha

Current and Potential Irrigation27

Current Potential

With potential investments:

$2.5 bn

Increase average area irrigated from

260,000 ha/yr 775,000 ha/yr

New job creation: >500,000 jobs in the agriculture sector

Other opportunities/benefits28

� Disaster Risk Reduction:

� Hydropower and irrigation interventions will increase resilience with est $1 bnreduced losses to floods, droughts and climate change

� Navigation:

� reduced costs and improved opportunities for development through river navigation, and bridges

� Environmental management:

� flow management in the delta, improved fisheries and basin-wide e-flows, etc.

� Fisheries production

� lake and deltas

� Water supply for people and industry

� >1,000m3/yr for Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe

� Mining

� potential negative impacts to water quality to be mitigated, and

� reduced-cost transportation/navigation options to be explored

� Tourism

29 Next steps:

“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now30

� Clearly demonstrate the added-value of collaboration in river basin management and development

� Investors are ready and willing

�The people are waiting

� ZAMCOM to deliver tangible results in 3 key areas:

“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now31

1. Effective ZAMCOM governance:� Institutional arrangements, legal frameworks, political will and financial support – including from member countries

� everything is in place now

� need to make it work

“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now32

2. Shared data, information and knowledge platforms� Shared data and information system - ZAMWIS

� Agreed basin-wide decision-support systems for

� basin development planning,

� real-time monitoring for flow synchronisation, and

� flood forecasting and early warning systems

“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now33

3. Develop and agree the “Zambezi Strategic Plan”� A “rolling” strategic planning process

� Base the plan on broad basin-wide stakeholder consultations

� A plan which identifies, categorises and prioritises investment projects and programmes for managing and developing the water/related resources of the Basin

� Investments the 3-“I”s:

1. Information and knowledge,

2. Institutions - arrangements and capacity-building, and

3. Infrastructure

� Engage the decision-makers

� Leverage additional benefits and additional investments

Selected References34

• SADC. 2011. Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi

River Basin Project.

• Sadoff, C.W. and Grey, D. 2005. Cooperation on international rivers: A

continuum for securing and sharing benefits. IWRA, International Water,

Vol. 30, No. 4. 8 pp.

• World Bank. 2010. The Zambezi River Basin: a Multi-Sector Investment

Opportunities Analysis. http://water.worldbank.org/node/83707

• SADC-WD/ZRA. 2008. Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy

and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin.

http://www.zambezicommission.org/downloads/Zambezi%20River%20Basi

n%20IWRM%20Strategy%20ZAMSTRAT.pdf

Thank you!35