challenges and opportunities: water management and development in the zambezi
DESCRIPTION
Transboundary Water Management Workshop held in Johannesburg, South Africa from April 29-30, 2014.TRANSCRIPT
CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES
WATER MANAGEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
THE ZAMBEZI RIVER BASIN
John Metzger, Senior AdviserZambezi Watercourse Commission, Harare, Zimbabwe
29 April 2014
Presentation Outline 2
1. Basin Context
2. Challenges
3. Opportunities
4. Next steps
Contextthe Zambezi and other River Basins:
3Okavango Mekong Nile Zambezi
Basin Area
(km2)429,400 822,200 160,000,000 1,370,000
Avg annual
flow (km3)10 495 84
@ Aswan130
River
length (km)1,100 4,800 6,853 2,650
Population
(million)1.3 > 60 > 160 > 32
Riparian
countries3 6 11 8
Key features - the Zambezi River Basin4
� 8 countries:
� Angola
� Botswana
� Malawi
� Mozambique
� Namibia
� Tanzania
� Zambia
� Zimbabwe
� 13 sub-basins:
The Zambezi River BasinBasin areas by country
5
the Zambezi River BasinPopulation and distribution
6
� Within the basin:
� > 32 million today:� 85% in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
� Increasing to 51 million by 2025
� 7.6 million in 21 urban centres
The Zambezi River Basin7
The Zambezi River BasinEconomic development
8
� > 6% annual economic growth
� Annual GDP: $100bn annual GDP
� GDP/capita: $122 (Zimbabwe) to $7,000 (Botswana)
� Persistent poverty, but dual economies:� Some new investments possible in large infrastructure, and
� Many relying on subsistence livelihoods based on environmental services
� Some important World Heritage and Ramsar sites
� Significant reliance on nature-based tourism
� Climatic variability est. GDP loss ~1%
Challenges9
ChallengesSocio-economic
10
� Lack of significant investments in infrastructure in the past 30 years
� Limited coordinated development:
� Economic inefficiencies
� Loss of productivity
� Impaired ability of natural systems to sustain environmental services
� Increased risks to extreme climate events
ChallengesClimate Change Impacts
11
� Preliminary assessments:
� Likely reduced runoff yield
� Reduced flows of 26-40%
� Increased irrigation deficits
� Avg. temperature increases of 1.5C
� Reduction in firm energy production of 32%
� But, high levels of uncertainty
Challenges12
� Benefits of cooperation have been recognised
� but realising them has been elusive
� No significant investments in water management and development in the basin in the past 30 years!
Opportunities13
OpportunitiesThe time is right for action now!
14
� Pent-up socio-economic demand in the region
� Political will is there:
�Legal and institutional arrangements are now in place
�Mutual-benefits of cooperation increasingly understood
� Strong technical and analytical frameworks:
� as a basis for developing and agreement investments in hydropower, agriculture, environment and transport, etc.
� > $16bn in infrastructure investments identified
� Increased cooperation can bring added benefits from existing infrastructure
Enabling legal frameworks for cooperationbased on benefit-sharing:
15
� Initiatives on-going from the1940s
� Zambezi River Authority – Zambia/Zimbabwe
� Kariba Dam - commissioned in 1960
� Other regional agreements in the past >30 years:
� 1995 SADC Protocol – revised/ratified 2003
� Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) - 1995
� Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM)
� Negotiations started in 1980s
� Signed in 2004
� Into force in 2011- interim Secretariat in Botswana
� Permanent Commission in 2014 – Secretariat in Zimbabwe
ZAMCOM Agreement16
� Objective:
� “To promote the equitable and reasonable utilisation of the water resources of the Zambezi Watercourse as well as the efficient management and sustainable development thereof”
ZAMCOM Governance17
Long history of cooperative efforts, supported by solid analytical foundations providing a strong data, information and
knowledge base
Report on the Zambezi River Commission
1995
18
Much AnalyticalWork Already Done!
Analytical Frameworkfor equitable and reasonable utilisation
19
Transboundary CooperationTypes of benefits
20
(Sadoff and Grey, 2005)
Type Opportunity
1. To
the river
Improved quality, flow regime, biodiversity, sustainability
2. From
the river
Increased benefits from hydropower, agriculture, flood/drought management, navigation, environmental conservation, recreation, etc.
3. Because of
the river
Improved regional relations based on cooperation and development for water, food and energy security…e.g. reduced conflicts
4. Beyond
the river
Regional economic integration of markets and trade
“Balanced” approachZambezi River basin development
21
SAPP: Southern Africa Power
Pool investment plan
Development OpportunitiesBalanced scenario
22
� A balanced approach combining hydropower, irrigation and other investments
� requires trade-offs between regions/sectors agreed
� overall benefits maximised
� Investments totalling about $16.1bn over 15yrs
� NPV = $110m
� Return on investment = 10%
23
Existing and Potential HEPs
24
Existing and Potential HEPsZambezi mainstream
Current and Potential Hydropower25
� Coordinated operation of existing dams = 7% increase in firm energy adding $585m over 30 yrs
� At no added cost!
Current Potential
Installed HEP generation capacity
5,000 MWhalf of SAPP HEP
13,000 MW
With potentialinvestments of
$10.6 bn
Increase in average energy production
30,000 GWh/yr 90,000GWh/yr
Increase in firm energy production
23,000 GWh/yr 58,000 GWh/yr
Current and Potential Irrigation26
Current
Identified
100 ha1,000 ha
10,000 ha
100,000 ha
Current and Potential Irrigation27
Current Potential
With potential investments:
$2.5 bn
Increase average area irrigated from
260,000 ha/yr 775,000 ha/yr
New job creation: >500,000 jobs in the agriculture sector
Other opportunities/benefits28
� Disaster Risk Reduction:
� Hydropower and irrigation interventions will increase resilience with est $1 bnreduced losses to floods, droughts and climate change
� Navigation:
� reduced costs and improved opportunities for development through river navigation, and bridges
� Environmental management:
� flow management in the delta, improved fisheries and basin-wide e-flows, etc.
� Fisheries production
� lake and deltas
� Water supply for people and industry
� >1,000m3/yr for Botswana, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe
� Mining
� potential negative impacts to water quality to be mitigated, and
� reduced-cost transportation/navigation options to be explored
� Tourism
29 Next steps:
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now30
� Clearly demonstrate the added-value of collaboration in river basin management and development
� Investors are ready and willing
�The people are waiting
� ZAMCOM to deliver tangible results in 3 key areas:
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now31
1. Effective ZAMCOM governance:� Institutional arrangements, legal frameworks, political will and financial support – including from member countries
� everything is in place now
� need to make it work
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now32
2. Shared data, information and knowledge platforms� Shared data and information system - ZAMWIS
� Agreed basin-wide decision-support systems for
� basin development planning,
� real-time monitoring for flow synchronisation, and
� flood forecasting and early warning systems
“Operationalise” ZAMCOM now33
3. Develop and agree the “Zambezi Strategic Plan”� A “rolling” strategic planning process
� Base the plan on broad basin-wide stakeholder consultations
� A plan which identifies, categorises and prioritises investment projects and programmes for managing and developing the water/related resources of the Basin
� Investments the 3-“I”s:
1. Information and knowledge,
2. Institutions - arrangements and capacity-building, and
3. Infrastructure
� Engage the decision-makers
� Leverage additional benefits and additional investments
Selected References34
• SADC. 2011. Dam Synchronisation and Flood Releases in the Zambezi
River Basin Project.
• Sadoff, C.W. and Grey, D. 2005. Cooperation on international rivers: A
continuum for securing and sharing benefits. IWRA, International Water,
Vol. 30, No. 4. 8 pp.
• World Bank. 2010. The Zambezi River Basin: a Multi-Sector Investment
Opportunities Analysis. http://water.worldbank.org/node/83707
• SADC-WD/ZRA. 2008. Integrated Water Resources Management Strategy
and Implementation Plan for the Zambezi River Basin.
http://www.zambezicommission.org/downloads/Zambezi%20River%20Basi
n%20IWRM%20Strategy%20ZAMSTRAT.pdf
Thank you!35