cap event - lessons from egypt: using social media to map the future political landscape

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John Kelly

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presentation forCenter for American Progress

March 22, 2011

John Kelly, Ph.D. Chief Scientist

Social Media and Future Politics: A Focus on Egypt

Part 1:

The Evidence is There

Egyptian Weblog Descriptions:

• This is the blog of an Egyptian engineering student. He does not take himself very seriously, and describes himself as a normal person in his profile. His is critical of the Egyptian government, and singles out the popular Egyptian singer Amr Diab for criticism because he apparently performed for the Mubarak family.

• This is the blog of a young Egyptian medical student who rages at the government of Egypt and the country's social ills. She writes angrily about sexual harassers, expresses her hatred for Hosni and Gamal Mubarak, and supports uprisings and strikes in the country.

• This is the blog of an Egyptian whose interest is computers, the Internet, and programming. He promotes contributing to Arabic Wikipedia and writes about how he prefers to blog than work while at his office. Although most of his blog is apolitical, he promoted the general strikes in Egypt when they occurred, supporting the anti-Mubarak opposition.

Egyptian Weblog Descriptions:

• This is the blog of a radical Egyptian socialist who writes about the turbulent workers' strike in Mahalla al-Kubra, union activism, and organizing peasants. He writes a lot about his opposition to Mubarak, torture in Egyptian prisons, and the need to end capitalism.

• This is the blog of an Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood member called Baheb Misr, or "I love Egypt." The blogger is relentlessly critical of Mubarak, who he calls Abu al-Fasad, or "Father of Corruption," the kind of statement that could get a print journalist jailed.

• This Egyptian blogger calls herself "Wahida Masriya," or "One Egyptian." She is a leftist associated with the Kifaya movement, and has the Kifaya slogan "down with Mubarak" emblazoned in her profile. She writes in support of feminism, against torture, and also speaks favorably of coalescing with the Muslim Brotherhood against the government.

Part 1:

The Evidence is There

Part 1:

The Evidence is There

…and was there already by 2008

Part 2:

Network Topology >> Political Landscape

Proximity Clusters:

Attentive Clusters:

Arabic Blogosphere:

Major Zones:

Egyptian Blogosphere

Egypt Focus:

Egypt Focus:

Human Rights/Kefaya

Egypt Focus:

Secular Leftist

Egypt Focus:

Muslim Brotherhood

Egypt Focus:

Islam Women

Egypt Focus:

Literary/Poetic Women

Egypt Focus:

Human Rights/Kefaya

Secular Leftist

Muslim Brotherhood

Culture/Family

Time Reports:

10/31/0

6

11/5/0

6

11/10/0

6

11/15/0

6

11/20/0

6

11/25/0

6

11/30/0

6

12/5/0

6

12/10/0

6

12/15/0

6

12/20/0

6

12/25/0

6

12/30/0

6

1/4/0

7

1/9/0

7

1/14/0

7

1/19/0

7

1/24/0

7

1/29/0

7

2/3/0

7

2/8/0

7

2/13/0

70

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

"ElBaradei"

Secular LeftistPoetryPoetic/ReligiousNews AttentiveMuslim BrotherhoodMixLiterary/ Women/ PoeticIslam/RadIslam FemaleHuman Rights - KefayaFamilyCultrue/Family

10/31/0

6

11/5/0

6

11/10/0

6

11/15/0

6

11/20/0

6

11/25/0

6

11/30/0

6

12/5/0

6

12/10/0

6

12/15/0

6

12/20/0

6

12/25/0

6

12/30/0

6

1/4/0

7

1/9/0

7

1/14/0

7

1/19/0

7

1/24/0

7

1/29/0

7

2/3/0

7

2/8/0

7

2/13/0

70

2

4

6

8

10

12

"Khaled Said"

Secular LeftistPoetryPoetic/ReligiousNews AttentiveMuslim BrotherhoodMixLiterary/ Women/ PoeticIslam/RadIslam FemaleHuman Rights - KefayaFamilyCultrue/Family

Iranian Blogosphere:

mixed networks

Conservative Politics

Poetry

Religious Youth

CyberShi’a

Opposition

Reformist

Egyptian vs. Iranian Networks:

Egyptian Blogosphere

IranianBlogosphere

Arabic vs. Iranian Networks:

Egyptian Blogosphere

IranianBlogosphere

Strong division between secular and Islamist cultural and political zones.

Two sides deeply antagonistic.

Secular/Opposition

Islamist/Pro-Government

Arabic vs. Iranian Networks:

Egyptian Blogosphere

IranianBlogosphere

Multiple ideological/political groups integrated via culture/family-oriented clusters. All sides opposed Mubarak, used “bridging” language.

Culture/Family

Political/Ideological Groupings

Part 3:

Bridges vs. Bases:the importance, and limitations of core elites

Attentive Clusters:

“English Bridge”

Arabic Uprising Followers NetTwitter Networks

Twitter hashtags #tunisia

Twitter hashtags #iranelection

Twitter hashtags #bahrain

Twitter hashtags #jordan

Twitter hashtags #tahrir

Arabic Uprising Followers Net

Bahrain

Egypt

Jordan

Tunisia

Transnational Elite

Iran

Twitter Networks

Takeaways

Key points:

• Online coalition among ideologically diverse Egyptians was evident years before events of 2011.

• Social media network topology reflects political landscape, can reveal evolving political forces.

• Outside observers must be mindful of the difference between transnational social media elites and local “base” populations.

presentation forCenter for American Progress

March 22, 2011

John Kelly, Ph.D. Chief Scientist

Social Media and Future Politics: A Focus on Egypt

presentation forCenter for American Progress

March 22, 2011

John Kelly, Ph.D. Chief Scientist

Social Media and Future Politics: A Focus on Egypt

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