ca brush analysis how well did the cds wildfire model identify hazardous areas? produced by cds...

CA Brush AnalysisCA Brush AnalysisHow well did the CDS Wildfire Model identify How well did the CDS Wildfire Model identify

hazardous areas?hazardous areas?

Produced by Produced by CDS Business Mapping, LLC. CDS Business Mapping, LLC.

©Copyright 2003, CDS Business Mapping, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

IntroductionIntroduction CDS Business Mapping has been using CDS Business Mapping has been using

GIS to help identify potential brush fire GIS to help identify potential brush fire hazards for approximately 5 yearshazards for approximately 5 years

The previous methods used have been The previous methods used have been expensive and/or inaccurateexpensive and/or inaccurate

The CDS Wildfire Model was developed to The CDS Wildfire Model was developed to address the issue of brush fire hazard address the issue of brush fire hazard prediction and preventionprediction and prevention

About CDS Wildfire ModelAbout CDS Wildfire Model Model was developed using the most Model was developed using the most

current data and methods availablecurrent data and methods available Model is updated on a 5 year rolling Model is updated on a 5 year rolling

schedule (1/5 of the state is mapped each schedule (1/5 of the state is mapped each year)year)

The recent fire outbreak has given us a The recent fire outbreak has given us a opportunity to evaluate the performance opportunity to evaluate the performance of our modelof our model

The Big Question:The Big Question:

How did we do?How did we do? Everyone has asked how well the CDS Everyone has asked how well the CDS

Wildfire Hazard Model predicted the Wildfire Hazard Model predicted the areas that would burnareas that would burn

Can mapping technology and CDS’s Can mapping technology and CDS’s Wildfire Model accurately identify Wildfire Model accurately identify potential brush hazards?potential brush hazards?

The Answer:The Answer:

Yes!Yes! CDS did an CDS did an excellentexcellent job of identifying job of identifying

areas that were at risk of wildfiresareas that were at risk of wildfires The following pages explain our analysis The following pages explain our analysis

and the results of the analysisand the results of the analysis

AnalysisAnalysis CDS looked at fire extents dated Oct 27 CDS looked at fire extents dated Oct 27

through Nov 4 (busiest fire period during through Nov 4 (busiest fire period during the outbreak)the outbreak)

We looked at 5 counties in Southern CA We looked at 5 counties in Southern CA (Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, (Los Angeles, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego and Ventura)San Diego and Ventura)

We compared the Renie Admap books to We compared the Renie Admap books to the CDS Wildfire Model to the areas that the CDS Wildfire Model to the areas that actually burned to see how well we actually burned to see how well we predicted the firespredicted the fires

We overlaid the fire extents on the Renie & CDS Wildfire Models. This shows what the entire Southern California area looked like on a macro scale.

StatisticsStatistics

Fire Extent Coverage in % as of Nov 4Fire Extent Coverage in % as of Nov 4thth, 2003*, 2003*

CountyCounty RenieRenie CDS Wildfire ModelCDS Wildfire Model

• San BernardinoSan Bernardino 8080 9191• VenturaVentura 99 7373• Los AngelesLos Angeles 66 8787• RiversideRiverside 1 1 8181• San DiegoSan Diego 0 0 8585

* This is the percent of area that burned which Renie books * This is the percent of area that burned which Renie books flagged as in brush, and the percent of area which CDS rated flagged as in brush, and the percent of area which CDS rated as medium or high riskas medium or high risk

ConclusionsConclusions

The CDS Wildfire Model did an The CDS Wildfire Model did an excellentexcellent job of predicting areas that would burnjob of predicting areas that would burn

Renie AdMap was not a very successful Renie AdMap was not a very successful method of predictionmethod of prediction

By using the CDS Wildfire Model, you can By using the CDS Wildfire Model, you can identify potential brush fire hazardsidentify potential brush fire hazards

When you consider that most companies When you consider that most companies will not write near brush, our % of will not write near brush, our % of coverage would be even highercoverage would be even higher

Contact InformationContact Information

If you have any questions, please contact: If you have any questions, please contact:

Dan Munson Dan Munson Vice President of Sales & MarketingVice President of Sales & Marketing617-737-4444 617-737-4444 dmunson@cdsys.comdmunson@cdsys.com