(c) murray turoff 20091 pm 761 technology in emergency management john jay college of criminal...
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(C) Murray Turoff 2009 1
PM 761 Technology in Emergency Management
John Jay college of Criminal Justice
Murray TuroffDistinguished Professor EmeritusInformation Systems Department
New Jersey Institute of Technologyhttp:/is.njit.edu/turoff
turoff@njit.edu
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Disaster have been with usfor a long time
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Katrina
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Course Objectives
Cover Requirements for Emergency Preparedness and Management Information Systems Consider behavior of individuals, groups,
organizations, and the public Consider communications and auxiliary
technology Extreme Events Evaluating Technology and associated
policies Underlying philosophies Future Concerns
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Other Course Materials
Online bulletin Board System Discussion threads/conferences/lists
Instructor Instructions, read onlySyllabus for courseUsing the discussion system
Lecture Materials, read only Reading Materials, read only Introductions Questions on Lectures Questions on Reading materials Questions on assignments Other Questions Things to do (for learning), required Bad Examples of Emergency
Management, required Jokes in Emergency Management Practice Café (not on the course topic)
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Emergency Response Systems First Presentation Content
Nature of an Emergency OEP Experience & Wisdom EMISARI at OEP DERMIS Conceptual Design
Dynamics Emergency Response Management Information System
General Principles Auxiliary Supporting Systems
Resource Database Systems Collaborative Knowledge Systems Virtual Communities Social Networks and associated options
Auditing and decision support Topics & Group Communications Concluding Remarks
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Nature of an Emergency
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Emergency Management Characteristics
Unpredictable: Events Who will be involved What information will be needed What resources will be needed What actions will be taken, when, where,
and by who No time for training, meeting, or
planning No contingency plan that fits perfectly Planning should focus on the process
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Associated Concerns
Real practitioner team never formed till the emergency occurs Trust Conflicting goals Hundreds to thousands involved
Planners and executers are different individuals
Insufficient networking experience Insufficient command and control Disasters do not obey political, social,
organizational, geographical boundaries Many problems occur at interfaces to boundaries
– major errors, mistakes Sometimes called “interoperability”
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Emergency Management Requirements
Obtain data, status, views Monitor conditions Fill roles on a 24/7 basis Obtain expertise, liaison, action takers,
reporters Defer to expertise and experience
Need trust and shared objectives Draft contingencies Validate options Obtain approvals, delegate authority Coordinate actions, take actions, evaluate
actions, conduct oversight Innovate when necessary Evaluate outcomes
Modify scenarios and plans Modify systems and operations Correct CAUSES of prior errors
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Emergency ManagementPhases & Activities
Preparedness (analysis, planning, and evaluation): Analysis of the threats Analysis and evaluation of performance (and
errors); Planning for mitigation; Planning for detection and intelligence; Planning for response; Planning for recovery and/or normalization Continuous correction of operations and
plans Design of support systems and relationships
Training Mitigation Detection Warning Response Recovery/normalization
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Organizational Emergency Situations
Strike Court Case Cost overrun Delivery delay New regulation Terrorist action Supply shortage Natural Disaster Man Made Disaster Production delay Product malfunction Contract Negotiation Loss of a key customer Responding to an RFP Loss of key employee(s) New Competitive product
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Positive Emergency Situations
Responding to an RFP Winning a large contract Developing a new product Creating a long term plan Understanding and responding to new
regulations Taking over another company Too many orders for a product
Employee shortage Shortage of raw materials Production problems
Creating a time urgent task force or committee
Matrix Management
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Business Continuityand “other”
Very similar concerns to Emergency Management
Most business rely on external resources and support provided by the community they reside in However utilities, chemical plants, military bases,
etc, must deal with the problems their existence can create
Law Enforcement has a unique characteristic in trying to detect man made threats and dealing with them beforehand rather than those produced by nature
Citizen, medical, community and Private Organization preparedness and management
Interoperability is a major concern Should be no real professional difference in
EM between public and private sectors
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Lessons of 9/11 for Design
Vulnerability of a physical command and control center
Reductionism applied to Dynamic information Responder responsibilities Responsibilities of Agencies Communication systems
Threat-Rigidity Syndrome Clear Exceptions to Plans and innovations
Ferries as ambulances Use of N.J. National Guard telephone network
via guard members GIS database critical to recovery (e.g. bathtub) Recovery a major undertaking (e.g. response
continued: contamination)
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Katrina Experiences Lack of adequate plans for things like evacuation
Flawed local planning process Lack of considering behavioral implications
Evacuation, civil employees, citizen trust (axes) Interrelationships of land management and
change of threat Obsolete data (flood prediction maps) No overall responsibility for long term
consequences of many actions by different entities
Loss of local command and control facilities Contamination of waters Lack of coordination among organizations of all
types Ice Fiasco, Citizen boat owners, Coast Guard, Red
Cross, medication Lack of initiatives Lack of expertise National Guard Status
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Evacuation Example Evacuation Plans are quite common but usually
at a high level without answering the problem of exceptions How do you get people to evacuate in phases
which some plans called for? What happens to first responders that want to
insure there family gets out? Does a gas station attendant stay on the job? Does a food or grocery worker stay on the job?
How do locals get last minute supplies? Does the bus driver leave his family behind? How do you handle accidents in an evacuation? Can medical, police, and public works
communicate to be able to keep cars moving? Akin to building an information system under
the assumption nothing will go wrong and all incoming data is perfect. No exceptions are allowed Accidents, stalled vehicles, traffic jams, lack of
gas, food, water, etc.
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Planning is Critical
Nothing works without good plans Planning is a continuous process Planning needs to be done with the
involvement of those that will be executing them.
Planning must focus on defining the process, responsibilities, roles, and the resources, not the decisions
Planning has to include recognizing prior mistakes/shortcomings and correcting them
Planning has to be tied to generation of mitigation options (Long term cost saving ratio 3-5)
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OEP Experience & Wisdom
Office of Emergency Preparedness Executive Office of the
President
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Office of Emergency Preparedness (OEP)
Existed until 1973 in the Executive Offices Derivative of OSS (Office of Special Services) Centralized civilian command and control in any
crisis situation: natural disasters, national strikes, commodity
shortages, wartime situations, industry priorities, wage price freeze
Command resources of all federal, state, local and industrial sources
Could incorporate personnel as needed from any source
Did contingency planning and utilized large community of experts and professionals on a national bases
EMISARI functioned in the GSA until the late 80’s, manual: http://library.njit.edu/archives/cccc-materials/ Report ISG-117: The Resource Interruption Monitoring System, October 1974 GSA
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OEP Wisdom I An emergency system must be regularly
used to work in a real emergency People are working intense 14-18 hour
days and cannot be interrupted Roles rather than person of the moment Timely tacking of what is happening is
critical Delegation of authority a must and
oversight of delegated actions is critical Providing related data and information
up, down, and laterally is critical No way to know who will be concerned or
contribute to a particular problem Plans are in constant modification
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OEP Wisdom II
Professional observers needed and trusted
Learning and adaptation of response plans from training and real events is a necessity
In a crisis exceptions and variations to the norm are common
The critical problem of the moment collects attention and resources
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OEP Wisdom III
Roles are the constant in an emergency and who is in a role may vary unexpectedly
Training people in multiple roles is very desirable
Roles and their privileges must be defined in the response system (and the software)
Understanding what is reality as an objective
Coordination under unpredictability 24/7 operation
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OEP Wisdom IV
Supporting confidence in a decision by the best possible timely information
Necessary PropertiesFree exchange of informationDelegation of authorityDecision accountabilityDecision oversightInformation source identification as
to source, date-time, reliabilityInformation overload reduction
Important computer design challenge
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OEP Wisdom V
The crux of the coordination problem for large crisis response groups is that the exact actions and responsibilities of each individual cannot be pre- determined.
Coordination by feedback not by planRealistic information on current
conditions determines actions takenParadox of Executive Planning
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Recent Supporting WisdomHale 1997
“. . . the key obstacle to effective crisis response is the communication needed to access relevant data or expertise and to piece together an accurate understandable picture of reality”
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Other Supporting WisdomDynes & Quarenteli 1977
“Coordination by feedback viewed as failure of planning and failure of coordination by most organizations. Instead plan should focus on improving and facilitating feedback”
Plan the process and not the actions. Tie actions to observable measures and trust in expertise and experience
The future is too variable to predict what outcomes should be as part of a plan—a disaster or a new product
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Other Supporting WisdomHorsely & Barker, 2002
Information Overload is typical People perform at higher levels of ability
then usual or expected Heterogeneous groups and individuals People work together who do not
normally do so Quick trust and spontaneous virtual teams
Cannot predict who will be involved Cannot predict who will carry out what role
at what time Community and Public relations is
critical (confidence and trust) Consider hurricane evacuation in Texas after
Katrina People panicking is very rare especially if
authority is trusted
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Threat Rigidity Syndrome
Stress sets in, possible from: Fatigue, long hours, cognitive conflicts, high
uncertainty Information Overload and/or uncertainty of
right data being there Responsibilities for lives and as lives are
lost based upon decisions made doubt and uncertainty in abilities set in
Is better information going to show up in time? Golden hour for medical treatment
Choice of following a formula or engaging in problem solving, creativity, and/or improvisation
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COGNITIVE ABSORPTION (Agarwal and Karahanna, 2000)
Psychological state of deep involvement Temporal dissociation Focused immersion Heightened enjoyment Curiosity or challenge
Observed for computer game players and FAA controllers
May lessen threat rigidity It can be a property of EM operators in
a command and control environment
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Mental Questions that Cause Stress
Is the information I have a realistic picture of the situation?
Should I wait longer to make a decision and then I will have better information?
Does someone have the information I need to make a better decision?
How many more lives will be lost or saved if I wait for more information?
Can I trust the person taking over my role or should I work longer? Will that person have what I know and did and
will I know what he did easily when I return?
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Positive Outcomes
Negative Outcomes
Environment and Support Systems
Increased Innovation
Lower
Stress
Levels
Higher
Stress
Levels
Stronger Motivation
Sensemaking Experience
Positive
Sense of
Control
Negative
Sense of
Control
Irrelevant Interruptions
Loss of Cognitive Attention
Increased Fatigue
Positive loop
Negative loop
Quality of Decisions Actions Analysis
Amount of Irrelevant Information
Increased Information Overload
Recognition of Relevant Information
Improved Situation Awareness
+_
Increased Cognitive Absorption
Maintenance of Cognitive Attention
Increased Threat Rigidity Syndrome
Model of Threat Rigidity
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Emergency Response Critical Success Factors
The priority problem of the moment is the magnet that gathers the data, information, people, and resources to deal with it
The integration of qualitative and quantitative information with measures of timeliness, confidence and priority is critical
Having pre-established existing communities of people and resources to draw upon
Knowing who and what is available in real time Learning from each experience and modifying lore for
the future Allow participants to discover the problems they are
concerned about or can contribute to (open architecture)
Thousands of users possible but only 5 to 25 focus on any one problem and is unpredictable beyond basic roles. Depends on circumstances of surrounding problem. Decisions being made on incomplete information in
a time urgent manner
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Open Issues
People can work 36 to 48 hours continuously in some crisis situationsHow do we really know when stress
and/or fatigue is interfering with their judgment?
How do we create quick trust in this environment?
How do we encourage creativity rather than rigidity?
How do you design an information system to encourage creativity?
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Emergency communication design concepts
Provide signals of a communication process Content can be the address
Address a message to any data item whether quantitative or qualitative
Who created or modified text or data and when it occurred is always tracked
Status of inputs always visible Contribution Attributes: confidence, priority,
source Text can be program: active or adaptive text Human roles in the software (varied privileges)
Lateral (two way) linkages of material Do bookkeeping of communications for user Optimize group/team processes rather than
individual processes. Associate qualitative and quantitative
information
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EMISARI
Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index
An “emissary” to those on the front linesCreated in one week as a derivative
of an existing Delphi Conferencing System for the 1971 Wage Price Freeze
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EMISARI 1971
Emergency Management Information System And Reference Index
Developed at OEP on a UNIVAC 1108 using EXEC VIII – early multiprocessor design (48 bit words)
Sharable database structures with individual word locking/unlocking in hardware
First used for Wage Price Freeze in 1971 Based upon software developed for virtual
expert communities as a Policy Delphi Process Used until late 80’s for strikes, commodity
shortages, and some natural disasters. Typically 100-400 users, 20-50 government
units
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EMISARI Objects
Administrator (any object can be changed or created in a few minutes)
Contacts (people) Conferences & Notebooks Data elements, tables, & matrix forms
Authorship & time of data by contacts Label, definition, & contact Data Status: unavailable now, never, temporary,
funny Directory
Contacts Assignments / Responsibilities Available objects
Online real time chat Separate message system
Send messages to any data item or any contact
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Send Message to Data Element
Reporter contact could explain what was wrong with it
Analyst could provide their interpretation of what it meant
Contact could indicate he or she needed something different or complementary then current reported item
Any contact could make comment about what it means to them like suggesting it needed a detailed discussion in some conference on the system What databases do you use where this might
be a handy feature? Still not a standard feature
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EMISARI Functions Message sent to contact, data element or form Discussion threads attached to objects Report formulation Virtual references between any objects simpler
html form. Could include current version of any data element,
text, message, etc in any other text item (&<m###, c##C###, n##p### d### v### t###)
Exception reporting using notifications (new entries using certain key)
Indexes Adaptive by use, most popular words in a two week
period Tracking misses, listing words searched but not
found Indirect communications (twitter property)
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Data Object Types
For single variable, vector, or tableAdministrator
Defines element, label, definitionAssigns it to contactOnly one who can fill it inAlways records date-time, author, and
indicated special statusAny contact can search directory
entries of all data types and definitions
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EMISARI Case tracking
Case Template Steps in process of a case Actions at each step Who can take action What step is triggered by action Person responsible for next step notified
automatically Others notified of status changes
Discussion thread attached to case Used for violations of wage price freeze Used for shortage violations (oil, natural gas, chlorine,
etc.) Originally design for tracking property disposal by the
federal government Defining templates (many laws governing process)
turned up some infinite cycles taking 5 to 10 years Emergencies need decision tracking software of this
type.
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EMISARI Notebooks
Policies, Objectives, Laws, etc. and needed Interpretations
NewsActions TakenLimited Writers, many readersAdaptive Index
Last 500 words searchedLast 500 words not found by
frequency requestedIndirect communication path to
those creating the information
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Two interesting cases
Cost of living council Meets once a week to make policy rulings List of not found words and their frequency
supplied to the staff to set agenda for meeting Notebook of interpretations used by people all
over the US to provide a basis for actions Lawyers that make interpretations of policy in
specific cases Refused to use EMISARI at start (used teletype
messages) Had same issue raised by different organizations
and interpretations made by different lawyers. Contradictions found by Washington Post and led
to them having to use the system Free access by those asking questions to all
questions and all interpretations News Stories
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EMISARI Disruption Model
Commerce Input-Output Model Thousands of classifications Interrupt sub sector in given locality
by strike or other disaster Calculate probable greatest impacts in
rest of country Examination and prediction of where
problems are going to happen in strikes, shortages, disruptions
Results available in about four hours Tape driven system at the time
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Emergency communication meta
processes
Computer AugmentationRegulation:
Sequencing, iteration, synchronization, participation, assignment, tracking
Facilitation: Organizing, summarizing, filtering,
exposing, integrating, indexing, notifying, classifying, motivating
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Group Communications design concepts I
Provide signals of a communication process
Stored notifications of actions by others or by system
Status of members of the group Content can be the address Who created or modified text or data
and when they did it is always tracked What a person has seen or not seen in
database is also always tracked Text can be program: active or adaptive
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Group Communications design concepts II
Flexibility humans can use in other media
Varied access privileges between members and objects
Human roles in the software Lateral two way linkages of material Do bookkeeping of communications for
user Improve group process by reduction of
process losses Relate qualitative and quantitative
information
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Asynchronous opportunities of Group Communications
Independence of Individual problem solving Group problem solving
Meta process & synchronization Backtracking Changing views Individual control Equal participation Mixed cognitive styles
Bottom/up vs. Top/down Data vs. Abstraction
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Goals of Group Communications
Collective intelligence Support for Human Roles Tailored communication and process
structures Integration with other
communication resources Self tailoring by users and groups Content as the address Design of a social system Communications as an interface
(people and resources) Asynchronous group problem solving
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Smart Requirements for Emergency Group Communications
Determine what individuals are looking for and not finding
Guide individuals to those interested in the same thing at the same time
Piece relevant data together Alert individuals to anything falling in
the cracks Provide high confidence of a person
knowing they have the best information possible at the moment
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Social Needs of intense groups
Rely on one anotherTrust the others to do their jobFrank and open viewpointsWillingness to handover roles and
responsibilitiesCreation of a team spirit Needs to be encouraged through the
system designEqual access to all by all, since we
cannot predict who might be involved for a given situation
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HCI Challenges I
System is a helper not a boss System allows variable problem solving
methods Reduction of information overload Minimization of execution difficulty High degree of comprehension High degree of tailoring by individual Encourage creativity and improvisation Support decision confidence Monitor performance and effort for
possible fatigue Multimodal interfaces
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Integration Requirements
Fire, Police, Public Works Public Health, Hospitals, Clinics, Doctors Community resources (e.g. bulldozers,
contractors, boats, generators, etc.) Utilities, Contractors, Equipment State Agencies, National Guard, State
Police, Other local regional Governments Federal Agencies, Civil Defense, FEMA,
Homeland Security Non-Profits, Service Organizations,
Professionals, Community Groups Citizen volunteers Forms of communication
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Superconnectivity
Number of working communication relationships multiplied by a factor of five to ten
Accurate and large group memories for both data and lore
Faster communication process than other alternatives on the average
Individuals get to know each other without physical or status bias
Tremendous efficiencies possible with good design (beyond electronic mail)
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Summary I
An Emergency Response and Management System is primarily a communication system.
The only content about the application in a communication system is that which is created by the users.
This requires the ability of users to create templates for content tailored to the various types of emergencies they must deal with.
The source and time of information provided is a key to information usage by users.
Quick trust and Virtual dynamic groups/teams are a key requirement.
Responsibilities/accountability for current and potential actions are necessary information
Crisis require individuals replacing others with respect to responsibilities as a crisis is a 24/7 occurrence.
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Summary 2
Relevance of data, information, knowledge, and wisdom is time dependent.
The content of a communication can determine the address, no other communication system allows this.
Indirect communications can be as important or useful as direct communications
Dynamic Group Formulation needs to be provided as a result of the above
Need to minimize interruptions for people involved
Need to allow a high degree of user tailoring for roles and associated events
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DERMIS Conceptual Design
Dynamic Emergency Response Management Information System
(The first layer of defense for the public body)
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DERMIS Objectives
Easy to Learn High degree of tailoring by users Used by trained professionals Overcome problem of small screens
(PDA) Virtual command and control center Support use of remote databases in an
integrated manner Support planning, evaluation, training,
updating, maintenance, and recovery, as well as response
Communication process independent of content
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Design Premises
System Training and Simulation Information Focus Crisis Memory Exceptions as Norms Scope and Nature of Crisis Information Validity and Timeliness Free exchange of Information Coordination and Integration
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General Design Principles and Specifications
System Directory Information Source and Timeliness Open Multi-directional communications Content as the address Link Relevant Information and Data Support psychological and social needs
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Supporting Design Considerations
Associated systems Resource Databases Community Collaboration systems Online Communities of Experts
Important concept: There is no specific data in DERMIS
system. Everything is created from templates for the data types that are defined so it can be tailored to any locality or region. It is a communication system just like a phone is. There can be a library of templates to draw on.
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Six Specific Interaction Design Criteria
Metaphors understood by professionals
Human roles built inNotifications integrated into
communicationsContext visibility
Application Template is the menuChoice tailored to role
Semantic Hypertext relationshipsTwo way linkages created
List processing at user levelCreation of lists tied to rolesManipulation of items in a listEg expansion and contraction
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Context Visibility Example
Recipe Processing instructions
Steps in the processMaterials: pots, pans, utensils
IngredientsAmounts, units
Click on anything to get more information To get other menus
Example: ingredient Mayonnaise might bring up recipe, types, properties, other recipes using it, etc.
Anything returns a result that could be tailored to the role of the person doing it.
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Emergency Metaphor
All emergencies have events Time logged and archived Serves dispatch function Used after emergency to understood
what took place Often separate events on different
systems for each agency involved Consider dynamic database of events
integrated across all agencies
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Metaphors I
Log of EventsRoot Event and Sub-eventsLateral EventsEach decision/action event
triggered by specified role or roles, or other events
Observations/reports can also be events
Event TemplateA collection of events possible within
the context of a given root event
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Events Associated with an Ambulance
Request for an ambulance unitAmbulance, driver, paramedic,
medical supplies, gas.Response to requestOversight negation
Road blockage or traffic jamLack of suppliesLack of staffOther demands for units
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Metaphors II
Events delivered to specified reactive roles for the event
Events delivered to roles that have specified the need to track given parent events
Event status is maintainedEvents can be categorized and/or
marked by user
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Metaphors III Resource Roles
Requester: seeks to obtain resource Observer: Predicts need based upon
threat and observations Dispatcher/supplier: allocates it Oversight reviewer: Might negate it for
fair distribution based upon expectations Planner/Analyst: Predict consumption
rate and exhaustion potential of resource
Maintainer: Insures readiness Seeker: Obtains new units of resources Distributor: Distribution to dispatchers Each type of resource can have the
above 8 roles, a single site for use of the resources may have a unique first 3 roles, others depend on the nature of the resource.
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Properties of Roles
Each role has its own event set it is concerned with
Clearly for a given situation roles must know of actions by other roles
If request cannot be honored the requester needs to know how long a delay might be involved
Each role focuses on a very specific responsibility for the total task of getting something like an ambulance sent
Scope of the disaster influences resulting complexity
Roles in very different areas need to know what each other is doing that affects them A mudslide or traffic stoppage on a certain road
may block resources to a given site and time to correct, if possible, needed
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Metaphors IV
Events have semantic links to all relevant information and dataForms for the collection of dataResources of concernMaps and PicturesAppropriate command choicesAppropriate status optionsParent, children, and Lateral events
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Event Log Metaphor
Encourages the use of both the semantic memory (relationship structure between events) and the use of episodic memory for the temporal sequence of occurrence of events
Aids in minimizing information overload impacts and supporting cognitive flexibility
Each event becomes a dynamic interaction menu – context visibility
Events for a given role may be from a variety of activities and from other roles Sending of resources needs knowledge of
ways of being sent and any blockage The computer can help to determine when a
role needs certain events When is the blockage to be cleared
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Example: Resource Request Event Template Status & Steps
Resource Request (location, situation) Allocation (or deny, delay, partial allocation) In transit Arrival of resource Status change in resource Status change in situation Recycle action Resource maintenance, reassignment Return transit Tailored information Completion action Status report
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Sample Event Types
Triggering/root events Resource requests Resource allocations Information requests Situation reports Completion announcements Status change Warnings/Alerts Leads/Speculations Role changes Interrupted events Suspended events Archived events
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Individual Event Processing Profile of event types within specified
parameters like location Person has list of events of concern New events passing profile filter
delivered to list Add and remove events Mark events for tracking related events Events have hierarchy with a root event
and various layers May incorporate lateral events that are
needed May expand and contract list
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Roles in DERMIS
Characterized byEvents the role can triggerRequired reactions to eventsResponsibilities for
Actions, Decisions Reporting of data Assessing Information Oversight, assessment Resource maintenance Reporting, Liaison
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Fundamental Roles Incident local site commander Resource Requests (people or things) Resource Allocation Resource Maintenance Resource Acquisition
Finding needed resources (equipment, people) Reporting and updating situations Edit, organize, and summarize information Analysis of Situations
Expected results, expenditure of resources Oversight, consulting, advising
Negating allocations, alerting for running out Alerting and scheduling Assigning and scheduling roles and role
changes Coordination among different areas Incident wide area commander Priority and Strategy Setting Liaison to other organizations
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Privileges for Roles
Creating event log entries of a given type
Templates to create new event types or new resources or anything not now specified in the system.
Responding to specific incidences of events by type, situation, and location
Supplying specific information or data
Producing situational and interpretive reports
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Event Categories for Role Filtering
New/Waiting To do “asap”
Action required Response required Information required
Events with tasks for role Informational Priority change Status change Interrupted event Suspended event Finished event Archived event
Events tracked for interest/concern
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Role Interaction Objectives
FacilitateHandover of rolesSharing of rolesAssignment of roles
Tracking Effort and time in rolePerformance and errors
Alerting oversight roles
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Notifications
Minimal messages that contain the essence of a communication.
Canned so they can be reactive and triggered by a click. Usually they become part of what they are
reacting to Queries that require a response Alerting individuals to something that
has occurred due to the actions of others
Preformed statements like I agree, Good idea, I disagree, information X
needed, etc (what ever is wanted)
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Canned Notifications
I agree/disagree with it I am taking care of this Delay this action Give this a higher/lower priority Get us more details on this Good point/work/job Is there more Find related information Investigate this
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Query / Fill In notification
Supply an estimate of the injured? ______________
We will have more information by (time).
We will need (number) more of (supply item).
Alert for delivery of more involved forms needing processing
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Context Visibility Example
A single event can have the following information with potential multiple links for each Event log ID Resource type Responsible party or author Relevant location or locations Next expected event Role to take further action Status of event Situation report Lateral Events Footnotes, notifications, and comments
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Resource Context Example Menu
Clicking on a unit resource in an event could produce any of the following
results (depends on role that is clicking) Current status of the unit in this event Status of all units at location of this event Status of all units at desired source of
resource Status of all available units Status of all in use units Status of all units Sources for new units
These menu “links” dynamically updated Concept of general to specific with
lateral linkages at any level
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Link Menu triggered by click on Resource Type
Defaults can be set by individual user role
Dimension of very specific to very general (examples) Status of the unit to be assigned or those
which are assigned (assigned) Status of all units in event area (involved) Status of all of units currently in assigned to
this emergency (total) Estimates of back up units (reserve) Other sources of resource
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Nature of Hypertext Linkage
Two way linkagesSemantic meanings to all linksMultiple links from an anchor
pointCollection of links becomes a
balloon menu for that anchor point
Links are dynamic
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List Processing Properties
Event log a very large dynamic list Template and incident relationships Many alternative orderings Internal network type indexing Collective view of reality Indirect communications, command,
and control Primary interface menu Communication bookkeeping on the
actions of others
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List Processing Requirements
Tailoring by user roles and dynamic groups
Expand and contract listMark and prioritizeFilter, organize, and reorderAllow dynamic formation of groupsAlert to significant status changesIndicate what you want to track
and what you can ignore
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Communication Exercise I(don’t do unless assigned)
Simple Morphological Problem 1. Police and law Enforcement 2. Firemen 3. Public Works 4. Public Health 5. Hospitals and Emergency Medical Services 6. Red Cross (temporary housing) 7. Utility Power Companies 8. Water and Sewage 9. Phone Companies 10. Transportation services (buses, trains, etc.) 11. National Guard 12. State Officials 13. Local Officials 14. Federal Officials 15. Press and the Public 16. Any thing you want to add
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Communication Exercise II
Assignment: What is a specific example in any specific emergency where one of the above 15 listed organizations has to specifically communicate with one of the others for any reason that will aid the emergency management process. There are n(n-1)/2 possible combinations or 14x15/2 = 105 examples. You are only asked to come with 25 examples but try to determine some that are not at all obvious. Add a 15th if you come up with another organization you want to consider.
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Communication Exercise III
Be specific: (1 and 3) A rainfall has caused a mud slide and the police, first on the scene, must get the public works department to clear the road that has been blocked; (1 and 5) the police must also notify hospitals that ambulances can not use this roadway to reach casualties; (1 and 13, 15) they must also notify the public local administrators.
Therefore, this one occurrence produces four items.
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DERMIS Directory Structure I
DirectoryPeople
Background & Expertise Group membership Conference membership Bulletin Board Editorship Roles & Responsibilities
Event CreationCurrent Active EventsNotificationsResource Concerns
Authorities
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DERMIS Directory Structure II
Directory Contacts Events Roles Groups (informal and formal) Conferences Bulletin Boards (e.g. policy, plans, etc.) Databases System Learning and help materials Training Materials and Games Related Systems
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Design Principle I
System Directory provides a hierarchical structure, with lateral links, for all the current data and information in the system
Complete text searchingDynamic lateral link examples:
People in roles currentlyPeople qualified for rolesPeople tracking a given root event to
a template
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Design Principle 2
All information brought into the system identified by source, time, and links to related events
All actions (controlled events) taken by roles also clearly logged and tracked within the templates they are linked to and identified by the role and who had the role
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Design Principle 3
Open communications to all members of the system and all roles
Being able to start a discussion root linked to any object of data or information.
Paste communications anywhere in the system including multiple linkages
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Design Principle 4
Links normally made by the system based upon the relevance of the data or information to current events and roles
Links may also be made by specific roles such as observers
We need subtle ways of keeping roles aware of what is new and relevant to them.
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Design Principle 5
Dynamic update of information so that the user does not have to concern themselves with what is the most current situation
Predictions of updates where ever possible to let roles know if any relevant information is eminent
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Design Principle 6
Any two items maybe linked semantically anywhere in the system
Links are always two wayLinks are typed and retrievableLinks have a date-time and
source as they are a data object
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Design Principle 7
Authorities, responsibilities, and accountability are all explicit within the context of any role or set of roles
The same holds for the definition of events
Higher levels of authority are for oversight over the lower levelsAn action proceeds unless oversight
is executed in a timely manner
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Design Principle 8
Encourage and support the psychological and social needs of any crisis response team
Facilitate quick trust and virtual team spirit
Try to detect and deal with stress and fatigue
Provide training for multiple role taking on the fly (e.g. trainees can observe the role in action)
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Audit Objectives I
Foundations of AuditingTheory of Inspired Confidence
Limperg, Netherlands, 70 years ago Confidence of the public (citizens and
investors) in organizationsSarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002
Protect the interests of public investors
SARBOX for short
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Audit Objectives II
Audit ImplicationsAssurance of the Decision Process
for all financial/economic transactions (not the decision)
Includes determination of VALUE and RISKS (!!!)
Includes stewardship of the managers and professionals
Assurance needs of society change over time
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Audit Questions
Regular Decision Processes when there are problems detected What is the relevant data/information? Who has the decision authority? Who will make the decision? How was authority delegated? Who advises/consults on the decision? Who/what is impacted by the decision? Who needs to know about the decision? Does everyone concerned have access to the
relevant data/information? Who supplies data/information? When must the decision be made? What is the expectation of additional
data/information and when?
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ER decision making issues
Complications added by Emergency Response Decision Processes Dynamic delegation of Authority Fluid accountability/responsibility Dynamic formulation of group concerned
with decision Critical time constraints Interdependence of transactions/events Dynamic role changes Conflicts for resources Unpredictability of environment
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Create an EPTrust
Emergency Preparedness TrustSets of controls to measure the
current degree of emergency Preparedness of an organization
Natural extension of security and recovery auditing
Can be developed now and applied to organizations
A critical first step
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Technology Changes I
Continuous AuditingContinuous tests of controlsContinuous monitoring of all
organizational decision processContinuous monitoring, capture,
reporting, and evaluation of dataDevelopment of performance
measures
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Technology Change II
Organizational Process DesignIntegration of the flow of
data/information across functional domains
Making decision requirements explicit Supply Chain Management Customer Relationship Management Virtual teams, Outsourcing Enterprise/Strategic Resource
Planning: ERP, SRP, etc.
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Observations I
Emergency decisions require the same assurance process as regular decisions and then some!
Technology is moving organizations in the direction of enterprise wide systems and ultimately to continuous auditing as well.
Continuous auditing is the backbone for any type of decision assurance process.
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Observations II
CA makes the integration of Emergency Response Systems relatively easy
Insures training and use by employees It would spread ER systems throughout the
society It will reduce the costs of such systems Adding intelligent tools will be easier Confidence in making critical decisions will be
higher Stress will be reduced improvisation will be
enhanced Easier integration across organizations
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Dangers of Computer Monitoring of Decision
Processes Computerization often leads to attempts to
simplify decisions so they can be modeled and programmed.
The approach needed is to leave complex decisions and problem coping to the emergency response managers and professionals
Making roles of managers and professionals explicit in the software and integrating that into Virtual Team support Systems is a solution to this problem if it includes: Tying of software supported roles to events
defining decision requirements Integration with the flow of data and information
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Auxiliary Supporting Systems
Resource Databases Organizational Memory & Collaborative
Knowledge Building Systems for professional groups
Virtual Communities Local Community participation,
collaboration, and involvement in providing knowledge, person-power, and equipment.
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Some Key Research TOPICS in ER
Virtual Command and Control Centers Stimulating creativity or improvising On-line communities: Generate trust, social
networks, cohesiveness, and community involvement
Investigations of decision scenarios and possible audit controls
Decision Support Tools for all ER phases Multimodal & Multimedia Augmentation New Training Approaches Distributive System Integration
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Key Independent Decision Support Roles
Roles Support Functions Request resource Take Actions
Responsibility & accountability
Allocate resource Specialized authorities Report relevant data
Gathering information
Determining implications
Analysis & oversight
Acquire more resources
Dynamic “planning” by feedback!
Assign resources Command authority
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Planning with DERMISDynamic Emergency Response
Management Information System
Generating scenarios and evaluating them as a collaborative exercise is quite easy to do in ERMIS
Addition need of voting and scaling aids to allow determining disagreements and focus discussion
Generate new event types and roles to deal with new risks
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Training with DERMIS
Easy to establish training exercises based upon role-event structure
Simulation driven by a sequence of timed events in real time tied to the clock or can be speeded up for some types of training
Players can easily be simulated with respect to actions and generated events
Small teams can participate with a much larger groups of simulated players
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Evaluating with DERMIS
Examine log file of events and actions by roles
Develop appropriate analysis tools to aid this process
Discover and correct problems by improving system and/or improving training
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Recovery with DERMIS
Can be used to direct and coordinate the recovery activity
Can involve any diversity organizations and agencies involved
Provides a complete record and accountability for the recovery process
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Summary on DERMIS
Can be used for all phases of the emergency response process
Can be used for “little” emergencies which are quite common in any type of organizations
Can be used to support Online Communities
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Topics & Group Communications
Developed at NJIT on the EIES system in the late 70’s
Electronic Information Exchange System (EIES)
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Topics: Unpredictable information exchange
Topic is limited sized inquiry Broadcast to all Selection of ones to track (receive
responses) by reader Limited response length Types of response: reference, answer,
contact Data base of results Roles in software: Indexer, Briefer
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Topics Example State Legislative Science Advisors Large groups (50-300) Each topic about 15 responses Sample topics in 3 weeks
Computer crime laws, mining of bentonite, legal definition of death, control of isobutynitrite, hazardous waste survey, underground hv transmission, licensing child care centers, child abuse, prison industries, licensing of midwives, salt brime disposal, cameras in court, junk foods in schools, educational vouchers, definition of antiques, generic drugs, methodone, migrant education
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Loss of Focus and Interruptions
Early studies of programmersInterruptions cost complex problem
solving loss of setup time and think time
Shown to be very significantAlso slow response of systems a
contributory factorPutting programmers in open bays
and with lost of activity clearly detrimental
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Serious Concern today about instant messaging and cell phones
in business
Help! I’ve lost my focus, Time magazine, January 16, 2006, by Stephanie Diani
CrazyBusy, Overstretched, Overbooked and About to Snap: Strategies for Coping in a World Gone ADD by Edward Hallowell, Ballantine books, 2006.
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Concerns I
An epidemic of “Attention Deficit Disorder”
High Cost of interruptions Study of 1,000 office hours found 2.1 hours
a day or 28% loss of the workday Employees devote an average to 11 minutes
to project before a ping of an e-mail or the ring of phone interrupted
Once interrupted an extra 25 minutes needed to return to original task
Average worker juggling about 12 projects apiece
Interruptions destroy setup goals
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Concerns II
Performance declines and stress rises with the number of tasks juggled
Most creative and productive people refuse to subject their brains to excess data streams
Some multitasking can stimulate, too much does the opposite
Interruptions at the beginning or the end of a task does the maximum damage
Interruptions of the problem solving planning process are considered the worse
Interruptions by email and cell phones maybe addictive
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Results for Emergency IS
For problem solving we need to design systems that allow the user to focus on the tasks
The system has integrate the work of others in a manner that allows the user to concentrate of their work and have the benefit of what is really relevant to what the user is doing at the moment
Context visibility and hypertext as an associative mechanism
Event templates as an integration mechanism
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Not an easy road to take Roles in Disaster Cause Rift in City:
Despite Sept. 11, Fire Dept and Police Lack Accord by William Bashbaum and Michelle
O’Donnell, New York Times, 4/3/2004, pages A1 & B4
“More than two and a half years later…the city still lacks what many experts say is the most basic and essential tool…a formal agreement governing what city agency will lead the response at the scene of any catastrophic accident…”
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Goals of Group Communications
Collective intelligence Support for Human Roles Tailored communication and process
structures Integration with other
communication resources Self tailoring by users and groups Content as the address Design of a social system Communications as an interface
(people and resources) Asynchronous group problem solving Information Overload reduction
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The Future
Smart planning, talented people, and well designed adaptive communication / information networks are needed
Change and disruption is more common than we think, even in commerce, and getting more frequent
The social system technology can be designed to make dramatic improvements in ER
However, does the organizational motivation and understanding exist to do it? The issue is designing new virtual organizations
and communities that will change existing organizations and the way things are done.
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Quotes relevant to EM
The Information needed to understand the problem depends upon one’s idea for solving it. -- Rittel & Webber 1973
A Seer upon perceiving a flood should be
the first to climb a tree – Kahlil Gibran
We, the willing, led by the incompetent to do the impossible for the ungrateful, have done so much for so long with so little, we are now capable of doing practically anything with nothing.
-- unofficial motto of emergency managers
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The problem of KNOWLEDGE
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The End of the First Set of Slides
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